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Monday, August 20, 2012

UVXY - Gradual Rising Trend Phase

Likely the short term phase of a gradually rising trend has commenced for UVXY.  Support has held well recently, and the price can pop into the end of August.  This is the short term outlook, and will be updated in late August for September levels. 

The bigger picture is much more interesting, but the first phase of the bigger picture is the gradually rising trend in the analysis. 

60min Chart

136 comments:

  1. Just topped up my position at $5.04 to overweight. Planning to take profit late this month in the $6's.

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  2. Hi SC

    something doesnt make sense. you mention weakness into early september as well. why would you sell end of month this month? confused.


    Thanks!

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    1. I think it'll dip after the $6's level to present another good spot. After late Aug, my SPX cycle is weak again closer to mid Sept than early.

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    2. Hi SC

      Quick question about when you mention weak. I believe you mention weak before end of August, and all we getting is a 1$ up in UVXY for that weakness, while it been down many many dollar before hand. Maybe in future should make the call small small weakness instead? Just to be more descriptive about it :)


      Thanks!

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    3. Cause I think you like to mention words like crash "end of world" type of description before. So when you say weak, your reader will think the same definition weak = crash. But in this case it only $1 up on UVXY while it been down for many dollars.

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    4. I think the $1 up is just noises, and if it takes a week+ to get that $1 up, cant even say it bother my hearing at all with the noises. Maybe when it moves 1$ up each day for a week + then we talking weak...

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    5. I agree and that is why I'm going to show both the short term outlook, and then also explain how that fits into the context of the bigger picture outlook.

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    6. The short term charts just show how/when the bigger play is setting up.

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  3. So right now the race goes:

    SC: bearish with charts.
    ZZ: bullish with charts.
    Joed: bearish with a statement.

    Anyone else want to dish out their input on their forecast for the month of september and the rest of the year?

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    1. It is worth pointing out that these views only differ in the short run. All three of these views are looking for a top in Aug or Sept, and drop. So zooming out the difference is getting to be a moot point.

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    2. the problem is we looking at a product that can hurt majorly if it even 1 month difference. Like you can go from full suit to shirtless in less than a month with UVXY lol.

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    3. Yes, that is true so that is why it is important to pay attention to the short term cycles, but also understand that the bigger picture is most important, and keep that in mind.

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    4. That is why I plan to unload in the $6's, and reload on a dip.

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    5. ZZ is not looking for a top in August. He mentioned new highs into September and possibly another high around election time.

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    6. I'm a bit bearish into the end of August, but I'm sticking with my bullish forecast that I've been posting for over a year now.

      Also, it would not surprise me to see another bullish move after the election all the way into January 1st. Just need to see how the cycles align as we get closer...

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    7. Hi ZZ

      if that is the case, then VIX may as well go to zero with another bullish run that last till January. VIX already in the low teens lol. There will be negative amount of Fear in the market lol


      Thanks!

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  4. Can someone explain to me how VIX can be up 4.2% today but UVXY is only up 0.42%. I understand the UVXY would not necessarily match double vix changes but this is not even close? Tks in advance.

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    1. Testy99

      If you don't know that answer you should not be trading UVXY.
      Read Fridays posts a few people indicated what UVXY tracked, I also included a link Friday, will include it again, lets see if you understand after viewing the link.
      http://www.proshares.com/funds/uvxy_daily_holdings.html

      Maybe SC should read it also. LOL

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    2. Tks for the link..I already understand how it relates to futures months for SPX etc... and not specifically to VIX itself. Generally though when VIX rises/falls so does UVXY by a similar or greater percentage from what I have seen in the past.

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    3. Testy99

      Ok looks like I have to be a little more blunt LOL, it has nothing to do with the daily VIX, the link spelled out the answer, you should know exactly what to look at now and understand why UVXY only moved .4% as you posted. But your last post indicates your still not understanding.

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    4. Testy99

      Why would buy something (UVXY)and not understand what it is?

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    5. I'm pretty sure I understand how it measures against the expected S&P futures volatility...perhaps I just don't explain it well. lol

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    6. Testy99

      You must have learned it after your 1:31 pm post then LOL, nice to hear your informed now.

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    7. but then my confusion must be with the VIX itself since it's definition is The VIX is "quoted in percentage points and translates, roughly, to the expected movement in the S&P 500 index over the next 30-day period, which is then annualized."

      Thus my hypothesis that when VIX moves due to S&P expected volatility, I would expect UVXY to move in a similar manner with their expected volatility futures contracts versus VIX's options contracts.

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    8. Testy,

      You just plain shouldn't expect UVXY to track VIX. It's not designed to. It instead tracks daily changes in the VIX short-term futures index, which can diverge greatly from the current VIX value.

      For instance, September VIX futures barely moved today while spot VIX was up significantly. That's why UVXY stayed flat even on a huge up day for VIX. The higher volatility was already baked into the September futures and hence already baked into UVXY.

      I agree with others that you shouldn't trade these instruments unless/until you understand how they work.

      It's perfectly possible to correctly identify a low in VIX, buy UVXY at the same time, and make no money at all (or even lose money) because the anticipated increase in volatility is already reflected in VIX futures.

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  5. ZZ has already been a bit off here with timing, we still have not drop yet from his forecasted date of 9th of August. Even giving 2 days delay, we already close to 1 week pass of his forecast drop. Something isnt right. Not saying he is wrong in the long run though. But something isnt right so far...

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  6. Can you post pics here? if so how.

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    1. you can post link here, no pic that upload, maybe SC can enable it or something...not sure.

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  7. DOW

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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    1. Thanks Joe, top is forming, could be double top on both Aug and Sep

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  8. SC, does the rest of August remain negative or is the last week positive? thx

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  9. The precious metals have surged sharply since yesterday.
    I think they will dip tomorrow in line with the FOMC meeting.
    Investors will be disappointed by Ben Bernanke.
    Best

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  10. Sc whatever happened to the chart you were going to show us on how UVXY will still reach it's $28 target in September ???

    You keep saying targets are the same, but all we keep getting every week is how UVXY's going to up by a $1 !

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    1. I've been showing the short term chart, and the bigger picture chart is coming.

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    2. I think SC's target ($28) will be reached in November-December.
      Investors keep thinking that central bankers will intervene to boost the economy. At the jackson hall meeting, they will be disapointed. And at this time; SP500 will go down sharply.

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    3. There is no way UVXY is going to reach $28 this year. That's crazy talk.

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  11. Hi SC,
    I am a bit concerned that instead of gradual up for UVXY we are seeing a gradual down for UVXY. It looks like it is going to break the strong support in the low 5's this morning. Thoughts?

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    1. Although slightly lower this morning, the basic chart above still looks good.

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  12. VIX actually slightly up today, and looks like it is ready to pop on the daily chart.

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    1. That would be great if UVXY followed suit but.......

      Apparently from earlier posts in this update, I was informed that even though both UVXY and VIX are calculated differently against expected SPX volatility, that UVXY has nothing to do with the VIX and thus we cannot expect UVXY to follow VIX movements.

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    2. Well definitely cannot expect it to track VIX directly, but it is correlated for the most part.

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    3. that's what I thought as well .....
      i hope the correlation works in our favour today...:)

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  13. Next targets for UVXY are 4.3 and 4, in my opinion (targets for S&P 500 are 1425 & 1432, you can see charts under my handler)

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    1. that's a valid concern...what if you are right and the gradual trend ends up being down instead of up....
      after all we did break the support at 5 so it's more than possible

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  14. SC

    "Its correlated for the most part"

    Have you ever run that correlation R sq of UVXY and VIX daily?
    I doubt it or your answer would not be what it was.

    This is like the blind leading the blind here.

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  15. Hi SC

    Your 28$ of UVXY may happen soon, if we get a split lol, anything below 5$ may trigger that.


    Thanks!

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  16. SC,
    Do you have a stop loss point for UVXY based on the short term cycles?

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    1. I'm planning to take profit in the $6's next week. So I'm not bothering with stops here since my short term cycles are turning negative.

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    2. Stops are a personal decision so I am just stating what I am doing.

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    3. thanks...in your chart...am i reading it correctly via the green circles that you expect this week for UVXY to reach 5.60, then drop to 5.20 before rising to 6.40 next week (all approximate figures) ? Can the cycles be that accurate in the short term?

      The reason for my ask is I have not seen the cycles accuracy when it comes to time and price (ie. how it dropped below 5 for example)...i think it may be good only for general direction if that...

      Thanks for your patience with my questions.

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    4. It is difficult to be exact for sure, and because the price came down the target for next week is probably more like $6.15 roughly.

      The same is true of the bounce next few days (lower). The timing should be pretty close.

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  17. S&P Fib targets are 1425 & 1432, but I like 1432 because that is also Gann 270 dergees north of 1267...when Fib level matchs Gann level there is usually some magic, in this case we probably get some retrace at 1432 so will probably buy some TZA or UVXY at S&P 1432.

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    1. DoctorBoom~agree with you, where is your downside target?

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    2. Steven, watch for the daily posting under my handler's blog link I will post the Fib retrace targets there.

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    3. Like ur levels DB..IMO rut has rsistance 84ish..dont know if we get there..watching .GL

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  18. I thought SC was playing for the LARGER cycle? A major DECLINE?

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    1. The only MAJOR DECLINE here is SC's credibility and lots of bears' net worths.

      This post is gonna self-destruct in 5, 4, 3, 2...

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  19. Yes, we are getting to the more interesting part.

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    1. UVXY going from $12 to $9 to $4 range is not interesting enough for you ?

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  20. Hi SC this S&P rally seems to be stretching the limits here, what upside target are you looking at before we get a pullback? Also what is your downside target on the pullback.

    Massive divergences at the moment but the market doesn't care.

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    1. That 1432 is probably pretty close today/tomorrow more likely. The cycles are quite negative into late Aug. A pullback very likely into that time frame. I'm going to update the SPX levels for a pullback into next week.

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  21. cbear2, SC is doing his best, you don't have to be so nasty.

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  22. His Best is not cutting it...The TRUTH hurts...and the TRUTH is he's been wrong 100% of the time for the last 3 months....his charts and comments speak form themselves....There is no other way you can sugar coat this...EVENTUALLY he will be right when when UVXY hits $28 in September of 2013 ! (give me a break)

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    1. When all is said and done I am looking forward to tallying up my trades for UVXY and posting the results for the year on the site. You can decide then whether my strategy makes sense.

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    2. Show your tally in real time so we can see how much skin you have in the game.

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    3. Serious question, why do you come here Afshaikh? I would never waste my time at a site that I thought had no value.

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  23. I think the problem is we are listening to what SC says instead of following what he does with his trades. SC is very patient to buy UVXY but is quick to sell based on his short term cycles & makes money the majority of the time.
    The problem is his enthusiasm for the long term "crash" coming. People are following based on this enthusiasm, buying UVXY too quickly, scared to miss out, & than holding. You cannot buy & hold this instrument. It is not an investment. It will lose you a lot of money.
    When posts are made, ignore the enthusiasm, be patent before you buy & put in stop losses, or sell when SC sells.

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    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  24. the last 2 posts ring true to me.....thanks.

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    1. just to be clear...I meant from Steven @ 8:59am and Guelph1 @ 9:29am

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  25. THOUGHTS...........

    http://img543.imageshack.us/img543/9030/12631846.png

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  26. joed,
    your blog and your statements indicate that you expect significant downside. are you building on your shorts, i did,nt see them on your blog. just curious. you're the reason i,m in 100% cash.
    thanks

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    1. Phantom...........

      Glad I ccould help! I went short today off the 240 and 3min combination I posted! Best, joed

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    2. Phantom

      Ny "semi auto system" and my swing trades are 2 different things............I only post the "semi auto system spreadsheet on TNA and SILVER and when time allows I post trades for small traders..............Normally I do not post my day to day trading! Best, joed

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  27. http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SPVXSP:IND
    this is the index under ETN/ ETF TVIX & UVXY . New low index , new low ETF/ETN. No contango in this index. It's quite simple.... . Buy tvix & UVXY ,strong buy. Hy Sc. bye

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  28. SC, when and where will you be exiting your UNXY position. Thanks

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  29. https://twitter.com/Meteo1970/status/237981220343013376/photo/1

    https://twitter.com/Meteo1970/status/237981361741393920/photo/1

    BYE.

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  30. UVXY making that small bounce but since a little lower this morning, now resistance around this level $5.20 for today imo. Probably cool off again here into tomorrow, but still looking for over $6 next week.

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  31. Tomorrow is positive in my SPX cycle, then turns negative again into next week.

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    1. So tomorrow positive, then many negative days from there into next week.

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  32. On the chart above, UVXY did come down 15 cents more this morning so the $5.60 bounce shown on the chart could stop around here $5.45 or so.

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  33. $6.80ish is about the max I could see next week if UVXY overshoots the level on the chart above.

    Probably cool off again to test low $5 tomorrow first.

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  34. Where did everyone go...Is everyone in shock that the SPX actually had a negative day for a change. lol

    I guess tomorrow we find out if there is a confirmation of a reversal or not. Have a pleasant evening everyone.

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  35. Here's the vix
    http://screencast.com/t/addwHVdm6

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  36. SC, do you think today was the top for the s&p?

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    1. No, but I have a chart coming where I think the top will likely occur.

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  37. I just posted a chart on UVXY's breakout targets under my handler.

    I bought UVXY @5.06 today and sold near 5.4, then reloaded near closing @5.29 & hold overnight.

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    1. A few comments:
      What happened to 4.30 and 4 for UVXY that you posted earlier? There must have been a trigger point that occurred for you to change your forecast. What was that trigger point so we can learn from it?

      Do you anticipate a retracement back down to low 5's once 5.68 is reached and then a rise to 6.30 or is it just straight up to 6.30?

      It would be more beneficial to post your trades as they occur for education purposes. Some of us may even decide if we feel comfortable to join you with the trade.

      Thanks in advance.

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    2. If you want to see my live trades you have join the conversation in my chat room: I try to post live trades in both that place and here but between charting and post the live trades and answer questions there I may not have time to post the trades here sometime. The trigger was at the 5.05 level (hence my purchase @5.06), I posted the reason at the time I bought it in my chat room.

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    3. On another thought if your handler is 'testy...' then you're not welcome to my chat room. No offense intended, that's just way I prefer people to behave in my chat room: pleasant, not nasty.

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    4. The way you guys treat SC here is not right. SC worked hard to try to help you guys, but you guys are all over him.

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    5. Don't forget the numbers I posted are short-term targets so if the market change I have to adjust and flow with it instead of fighting it. Less fluctuation in my medium & long term S&P targets.

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    6. Tks for the response.

      Originally I picked Test99 as my handle but it was already taken so I added the 'y' to just get a unique handle.

      I have always treated SC (and everyone for that matter) with respect (sometimes with tough but professional questions) so I assume your statement does not apply to me.

      Tks

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    7. but UVXY is a very toxic 2X ETF so you should not buy and hold unless it's a winning trade, so the best to play it is by short term targets with stop loss levels, in my opinion.

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    8. Ok, sorry for the misunderstanding. I expect everyone who join my chat room to understand that making the trades are their responsibilities, they should not blame on anyone else.

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    9. Doc, testy99 is the most civil poster here...but you've been around a lot so already know that. No one knows what tomorrow brings. All we know is SPX high, UVXY low. At some point SPX will be lower and UVXY will be higher. Mutual funds cash levels at historic lows as retail continues to flee en masse. Manipulators can continue their game, but natural law cycles always win. Ignore the prophets...patience here equals profits.

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    10. By the way, after repeating grade 1 for 20 years I got tired and said enough is enough, so I bought my doctor degree from the internet.

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    11. Lol...I know a lady who parades as a shrink and has MSU after her name. When asked what degree that was, she said *makes shit up*.

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  38. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  39. JOED,
    thank you for your response and time

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  40. SPX up 130 points from my June 5th low to projected Aug 9th sell date. I'll tell ya, this sure beats having to stare all day at a 5 min chart ;-)

    http://tinyurl.com/d277vfu

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    1. ZZ, do you have any longer term charts going into 2013-2014?

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  41. SC, when do you think the top for SPX will be in place? also, when? thanks

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  42. ZZ:Nice job, the wave from Aug 25~28 should be the fifth wave, it could be all way up to the top, or could be the failed fifth wave like Joed said top on Aug(or could be double top on Aug/Sep), let markets tell

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  43. God morning SC,
    Are your cycles able to adjust to yesterday's action to modify it's target over the next few days. ie. move up to 5.60 today, drops to low 5's be end of this week, rises to 6.40 next week for short term profit; then interesting stuff (greater volatility) takes place for September etc..
    Tks in advance.

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    Replies
    1. Good morning,

      Trading at $5.51 premkt so the short term target on the chart has been hit. It should dip next to low $5's again next day or so, then firm up again imo as it gets ready to pop into the $6's.

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    2. Let's see how it goes today. If it did overshoot here to say around $5.85 that would be great because then my target would be high $6 instead of mid or low $6.

      It will be helpful to see a little more here to better fine tune.

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    3. Hit $5.60 exactly. If it does retest that level and overshoot a few cents over that may still be possible.

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    4. SC, when do you think the $6+ target will be reached? also, after that do you think UVXY could make new lows or just make a double bottom? Thanks

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    5. SC, but with this pace, how high do you think UVXY can go by September? We past mid August already but the negative cycles still not working yet.

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    6. $6's on track for next week. I will sell all then, and have a plan for after that. It is best to talk about that next week to keep in tune with the timing of market action.

      I have a plan for Sept. The short term negative cycles are working, but moderate moves. The large moves are coming but have to get through this slower phase first.

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  44. Some of the posters here should think before they ask the same questions over and over and over. SC deals with charts,cycles and probabilitys and does a damn good job.Thanks SC

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    1. agreed & much appreciated
      thanks SC

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  45. Hi SC

    do you know the price for HVU with your UVXY target next week is going to be like? can you let us know?


    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. Will let your know once closer, still fine tuning anyways.

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  46. SC,

    Your blog is interesting thus far. Any chance on getting some stats on your calls?

    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. Thank you, I am planning to have that data available but don't have it ready in an easy format to view currently.

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  47. Hi SC, i thought today was supposed to be positive? do you still expect UVXY to test lower $5 before heading to mid 6's? Thanks

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    1. Yes, today does show as positive. Let's see how it closes today. Yes, UVXY top out soon and dip to low $5 imo.

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    2. Still may see another test of $5.60's first. We'll see.

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  48. Hi SC,
    Congrats on the call for $5.60 today. Must be nice when a cycle works.
    We pulled back to the 5.20's today is that enough to go to the 6's next week or do we need to pull back further tomorrow before next weeks 6's?
    Thanks.

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    1. Thank you, it might be enough already but if not then levels to watch are $5.20 and $5.05.

      Getting close to the time when it is strong enough to run into the $6's.

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