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Thursday, August 23, 2012

$SPX - Short Term Update

The timing cycle outlined previously was not perfect, but reasonably close to signaling a turn at #3.  SPX is trading below the yellow fork resistance now, and the cycle analysis is quite negative next week.  Expect a sudden gap down within this time period. 

60min Chart

69 comments:

  1. SC,
    Thank you for the updated chart.
    Is today and tomorrow positive or negative before being negative next week?
    Tks in advance.

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    1. Nothing really stands out for today/tomorrow though Monday looks quite negative in the cycles I use.

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  2. SC, i'm seeing a change in trend on the 24th then again on 30th, do you see this as well? Also, do you think SPX will take out the recent high on the next move up or do you think it will be a lower top? Thanks

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    1. UK
      FWIW ..sp possible truncated 5th here=move to 138-1390 then move to 1440ish< only a possibility..also possible 5th ended 1422 and we find support 1350ish gl Thanks for the post SC..GL

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    2. Around Monday and Friday next week are quite negative in my cycle analysis. It might bounce from around that green target, but I think the white trendline would then be the next spot to be tested in Sept.

      Anyway we can take it one step at a time and review.

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    3. Thanks for the reply SC.

      When do you see a top being put in place on the SPX?

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    4. That is the right question, but hold that thought until next week. I have a plan, and I'm trying to keep in a sequence of timing so that there is less confusion.

      Even if SPX bounces today/tomorrow, we are on the downswing into next week imo.

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    5. SC: your whilte line support is about 1360, so do you see any crash on Sep? or the last quarter of 2012?

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    6. The reason I showed that white trendline is that should be tested in first half Sept imo. Sept start... I have analysis coming to show my Sept plan.

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  3. DB, why the need to tell us your entry/exit points?

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  4. Unknow, you may not be interested in them but some others have asked me to posted some live trades, anyway for anyone who are interested in live day trading postings you can join the chat room under my handler, I won't post live trades here any more because it can be annoying to some.

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    1. That's cool...just wondering.

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    2. How does one go joining your chat? some sort of sign up?

      confused.

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    3. I thought you already joined the chat room, I saw your handler. Roll down below the chat room there is a button that says 'join this site': click on that. 'Pleasant people only' should join, and remember tradings are your responsibilities, you got no one to blame but yourself if your trades go wrong.

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    4. maybe cause my work place dont allow it...cant see the chat...

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  5. BOOM

    What your point ..............these entries mean nothing to us! gj

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    1. Actually I like Booms posts...it gives us another data point to consider....isn't that what we are here for? to share our opinions and make decisions accordingly.

      Boom, please keep posting....

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  6. resistance level for UVXY is 5.68, which I posted as target for UVXY a few days ago and that target was met today. If there is any hope for UVXY it needs to break above this resistance level and if it does then next target is 6.66, in my opinion.

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  7. SPX will probably close on the 20DMA just above 1400 where it will find short term support going into tomorrow imo. We may get a slightly up day to concolidate above this level before breaking thru on Monday. The next support i have is the lower trendline and 50 DMA which is major support at where we should se a decent multi-day bounce...

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  8. If UVXY can break thru the 20 DMA then the next support will be a gap fill around the $6.90 mark...ton of resistance here imo...

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    Replies
    1. I meant to say resistance at gap fill...

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  9. doc boom,
    pl advise how to join your chat room. i cant find any link.
    thanks

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    Replies
    1. click on my handler, then click on the blog link.

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    2. btw I purchased my doctor degree from the internet.

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  10. test....

    Fine then join his chat room so we do not end up with 500 one liners a day that make no sense! gj

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  11. I think as long as 1400 is safe SP bounces tomorrow or Monday...might be safe to sell and reload next week

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  12. SC, it seems we are nearing a change in trend either today or tomorrow...do you think we could rally back up next week before heading lower? Will you be looking to sell some of your UVXY position tomorrow or hold into next week? thanks

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    1. The market may rally today I suspect. I sold some at $5.72 that I picked up on Monday at $5.05.

      I still think it'll pop over $6 next week.

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    2. I think it probably will cool off first, but next week still looks the same.

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    3. Thanks, can you please let us know when you exit and re-enter your positions?

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    4. There are 2 scenarios that can play out today...
      1. We consolidate over the 20DMA today and break thru on Monday at which point we could consolidate bearishly for "3" days inside mondays red bar then move lower on Friday.
      2. Change in trend today taking us to a double top next week in a "7" day trading day move...

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  13. SC have you sold all your UVXY shares?

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    Replies
    1. read the post above it says "Some"

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  14. SC, will you buying more UVXY today? if so at what price? thx

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    1. Not sure yet. $5.20 is an interesting spot, and also $5.05. Let's see how things shape up later today.

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    2. I'm thinking the spy's fill the gap from yesterday at around 141.75 before any downward pressure...UVXY seems to be consolidating bearishly over the 200MA which could take it down to 5.05...i think this is very possible if spy's reach 141.75...

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    3. SC, how likely (%) is it that Monday will be negative in your work?

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    4. Monday/Tues look negative and also negative Thurs/Fri next week. I think the market will drop hard, but not sure if that occurs early in the week or late in the week. Either way I think there is good support for UVXY in the low $5's and looking for well over $6 next week.

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  15. SC, do you still see 20s coming in UVXY? Looks like we will not get the drop we have been waiting again this month.

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    1. No big move this month, but my bigger picture view remains the same. I think we are in the early stage of the bigger picture view which is very bearish. Market can't be rushed that is for sure.

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  16. gap filled on spy's time to head lower into the close..imo

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    1. probably close at 141 on the Spy's right at the 50MA...

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  17. Bought some UVXY at $5.18. Still have some more to buy.

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    1. Bought the rest at $5.08, close to $5.05.

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    2. You bought at 5.08? That's really good timing! The charts looks like a falling knife when it was at 5.08. Pretty good call and I guess that's why I'll always be late to the party when I use moving averages.

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    3. Maybe I'll show the chart on the weekend how I came up with that $5.05. I'm pleased with it today though we will have to see how things shape up next week of course.

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  18. FYI...

    In fact, my consumer discretionary spending lag analysis suggests a very significant top between Aug 10 and Sep 10 (20-23 weeks from the monthly spending peak on April 1st). Since the bull market began in March 2009, there have been 5 previous spending-induced tops which are labeled in my public weekly chart.
    1. June 2009 - 23 week lag, 9% drop in 4 weeks
    2. January 2010 - 20 week lag, 9% drop in 4 weeks
    3. April 2010 - 21 week lag, 13% drop in 2 weeks, 17% drop in 10 weeks
    4. November 2010 - 23 week lag, 5% drop in 2-4 weeks
    5. May 2011 - 23 week lag, 8%+ drop in 6-7 weeks, 23% drop ultimately
    6. Aug/Sep 2012 - ??????????????
    http://s2trading.blogspot.com/

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  19. SC, what do you think about the odds of Fed easing at the September FOMC meeting ?
    According to your analysis, I would say that there will be no QE3. Is that true ?
    Best

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    1. I think the odds are high at the Sept meeting, but not Jackson Hole. Short term effects aside my analysis shows the market dropping in the bigger picture anyways.

      I have a plan for Sept, coming soon.

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    2. SC, if new QE at the Sep meeting, we would get a big rally from that, and don't you think that this would conflict with your view that this is the beginning of a big bear market?

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    3. No, the next major move is a decline in my work. In the cycles is it unavoidable, even with QE.

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    4. Said another way, QE already factored in at this point imo.

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  20. Can we get a update on Silver?

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    1. Yes, Silver finally becoming interesting again after a quiet period. The last target was $32, and approaching that level now.

      I'll do an update on it shortly.

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  21. http://img843.imageshack.us/img843/7031/distrader2.jpg

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  22. Just posted some long-term chart under my handler.

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  23. SC, is tomorrow still a negative day in your work? Also, are you now at 100% UVXY position? thanks

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    1. Yes, bought lots on Fri. Could still add to overweight position. Today/tomorrow are negative, and also Thurs/Fri.

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  24. Great informative short term updated blog. Member here would be getting the tips as well as the update about the trading world is well.

    Forex Alerts

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