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Wednesday, September 5, 2012

$SPX - Trending Lower

SPX managed a small bounce at the yellow midfork as expected, but remains trending lower.  This week the cycle analysis is negative, and that continues into early next week as well.  Today is quite negative, and also September 10-11th may be the most significant dates for weakness.

30min Chart











 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
UVXY is due for a spike higher on a short term basis.  At this pace, UVXY can reach the target area September 10-11th. 
 
It will likely spend a few days testing the white horizontal before breaking out to the target area. 
 
30min Chart
 


64 comments:

  1. I'm out of UVXY this morning @ 5.21, loss of 9 cents

    not worth risk right now. will wait & see what happens fro sidelines

    ReplyDelete
  2. only thing keeping UVXY from tanking has been back months... huge spread from front to back months... if they come in LOOK OUT below on UVXY.. will trade 4.50 within hours

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  3. I will look at going back in with 33% when VIX futures are at 18, another 33% when at 17 & final 33% when 16.
    UVXY respective prices are 4.91, 4.64 & 4.36 without any contagion. With contagion, UVXY prices will probably be 5 - 10% lower??

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  4. Bought another block $5.01 now overweight UVXY.

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  5. sorry, forgot to multiply by 2
    UVXY prices are 4.78, 4.23, 3.69 at those respective VIX futures levels

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  6. So...uvxy only tracks vix when it's going down. fools if you don't think this thing is completely manipulated...i know, it doesn't track the vix.

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  7. UVXY looking at a new 52wk low again

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  8. They're gonna crush this post split.

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  9. SC, plenty of support at 5.05...if QE3 is announced, this is toast for 6 months.

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  10. UVXY will trade post-split this Friday, Sept 7th. So the target range is $63-66 max.

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    Replies
    1. No chance, brother. Ben has kept volitility down to historic lows for summer months, and this will continue as they just ramp up the fight against large shorts with QE3.

      Delete
  11. can't bet against ZZ's charts
    he hasn't been posting here lately - probably because of all the negative comments on this site

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  12. Meltup coming for UVXY today imo. The SPX cycle is pretty negative today.

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    Replies
    1. It should move up to $5.40-60 area and hover at that level for a few days.

      Delete
  13. but so far I can't say stocks markets are negative, ZZ is still right on track

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  14. ZZ's forecast was big down Aug. 2 to Aug 28. Market was up that period. To say his work is *right on track*, is a bit generuous.

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    Replies
    1. Unknown, that is not correct. I said Aug 9th would be the last momentum high and the peak would hit closer to Aug 17th.

      This chart was posted on Aug 17th.
      http://tinyurl.com/99ap4wg

      I also posted on Aug 21st that it was very likely that a low would be put in around Aug 30-31.
      http://tinyurl.com/8rhydu9

      So far, this is pretty darn close to what we have done. Not to mention the fact that I've been telling people to be long since last October and have given exact dates on when to buy all year!!!!!!!! Heck, I even posted these dates 10 months in advance.

      http://changeintrend.wordpress.com

      Delete
    2. Just after you posted this...

      http://changeintrend.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/correlation-2012-07-24-at-10-00-09-am.png

      Delete
    3. Also, here's the Aug 9th high that was posted on July 6th, and this was after I said a May high will bring us a low on June 5th.
      http://zigzagcycle.blogspot.com/2012/07/august-9th-cycle.html

      Here's another buy I posted on July 24th
      http://changeintrend.wordpress.com/2012/07/25/possible-low-today/

      Oh yeah, my January surprise post on December 28th. I would say I've been *right on track* all year, wouldn't you?
      http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/12/indu-major-decline-next.html?showComment=1325135925387#c8572629603348212631

      I have recently mentioned that we will likely be heading down towards the election, so we shall see.

      Delete
    4. Unknown, are you high on bath salts? LOL! The last momentum high was the 9th!
      I've mentioned the correlation is a rough guide and people should actually trade my cycles not the correlation. But you knew that already, right?

      Anyone who has followed me has made money in this market. Say, I haven't seen anything from you. Mind showing us your charts?

      Delete
  15. SC, if we end positive today is it possible your cycle analysis has inverted? thanks

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    Replies
    1. No it's quite negative. No possibility of inversion in this type of short term cycle.

      Delete
  16. OK,only market is right, all we know it is hard to make prediction analysis, I am gererous to ZZ because he always keeps saying it is a bull market this year, and in fact it does

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  17. SC, if UVXY doesnt make your target today, what your game plan?


    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. Finished building my position in UVXY today. Now positioned and holding for the spike over $6 next.

      Delete
  18. ZZ's 7-24-12 chart, if anyone is interested in truth...

    http://changeintrend.files.wordpress.com/2012/07/correlation-2012-07-24-at-10-00-09-am.png

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    Replies
    1. Good grief Unknown...What is wrong with you? You're on ignore now..

      Here's your truth.
      January 3rd post.
      http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/01/spx-topping.html?showComment=1325653016733#c6857680459793205922

      Delete
    2. Goof grief back at ya...is that not your chart? What is it about your own chart you don't understand? You link a Jan. 2012 post to make your case. Double good grief..though I know what's wrong with you. Make multiple forecasts and support the one that props you %. At least SC takes it on the chin and admits it.

      Delete
    3. Yes, that is my chart and everyone knows how correct I've been with my forecast since then. Please do tell me where I made multiple forecasts that were wrong. I seriously can't wait see this.

      Okay, then you're going on double ignore. lol

      Delete
    4. Oh, hang on a sec Unknown. Are you talking about the shorter term chart of mine you posted? Yeah, I really goofed that one up thinking a 130 point rise in the SPX from my June 5th low would end on Aug 9th. Damn, if only I would've held on a few more days for those extra 18 points. What was I thinking. My bad..

      Delete
    5. Here's another one just for kicks.

      VIX weekly low chart I posted on Aug 16th.
      http://tinyurl.com/ce7uquz

      And today.
      http://tinyurl.com/cr57cus

      Unknown, where are your charts?

      Delete
    6. Unknown...Here's another blast from the past. Let me know if you need to see more, I have plenty of them for you to enjoy. Btw, check out that red line that hit the peak. Looking forward to seeing your charts...Perhaps tomorrow?

      http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/08/spy-support-lines.html?showComment=1313036676675#c6051803940904025328

      Delete
  19. The borrower clicked " I do not wish to furnish this information".

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  20. SC, do you plan to exit all or some of your UVXY position when it hits your short term target?

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    Replies
    1. Over $6 I'll sell the whole position.

      Delete
  21. bought 50% HVU at 13.65 (UVXY at $5) Lets see where this goes for the rest of the week.

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    Replies
    1. Nice! i wish i had some funds to purchase more...

      Delete
    2. ECB is tomorrow, why not wait till tomorrow before buying any %? confused.

      Delete
    3. i don't buy news i sell them...

      Delete
  22. if your playing with VIX your a risk taker, hence the move to buy today. Either way if it goes lower, I'll buy more, or if it spikes higher I'll sell my 50% stake.

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  23. What part of " Today is quite negative..." am I missing. Just more cycle analysis nonsense...

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  24. I think the S&P can go either way. Its in a decending triangle right now on the 15 mins. It can breakout with 50% probability in either direction in my opinion.
    I just don't think its wise to be too heavy in UVXY on these odds. This is a true gamble.
    The VIX futures could very easily go down to 16 from current 18.32. This is 12.66%x2 = 25% reduction in UVXY. It can go down over the next couple weeks to 3.75 just as likely as it could go up 25% to over 6
    bet what you can afford as it truly is gambling.

    all the best,
    G1

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  25. Just another note.
    I think the street believes the S&P is going up, based on the VIX futures dropping today when S&P isn't moving

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    Replies
    1. I hoping thats true cause the market moves opposite of the street...

      Delete
  26. Every buyer needs a seller the institutions will want the street to buy when they sell and sell when they buy...

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  27. SC, market seems poised for 1450. Can you provide a uvxy chart given that scenario? Seems your prior support is now resistance, and this is not good for any longs.

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  28. It could be possible that UVXY tests $4.70 +/- tomorrow morning before rocketing higher. This setup for over $6 is still the same even though it came down today.

    The cycles I use and charts are all very negative for SPX into early next week. I'm holding.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It might come down a little lower in the morning, but I think tomorrow will be quite a good day for UVXY into the close.

      Delete
  29. Hello SC

    Dumb question, do you have a stop in place? cause the UVXY reverse split is going to happen tomorrow end of market time. We all know what happen last time after split, just look at the current price.


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, I really like this short term setup for UVXY, and I'm holding through this negative cycle for SPX. The cycle just started, and it is about to intensify into early next week.

      I'm sure I'll do well on this trade.

      Delete
  30. I think today's sell-off has to do with covering ahead of split. I believe the vix short term futures are highly manipulated, and this is a very risky hold now.

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  31. A 1-for-10 reverse share split is planned for UVXY as of close on 9/6/12. With the short term VIX futures in contango and room for the premium to collapse, there is no sign that the UVXY will lose any momentum on its decline (92% year-to-date) and SC’s target of 28 for UVXY will be realized.

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  32. Unknown

    i think you can see that we nailed the 04/05 Sep low.

    Im yet to see your charts please enlighten us with your most infinite wisdom

    humbly yours
    Anthony

    ChangeInTrend

    ReplyDelete
  33. SILVER

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  34. SC I think it might hit your 4.70 mark in pre-market

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  35. good morning
    I think I will hold off buying the 1st 1/3 position. We are already down to 17.88. Don't want to fight the trend down

    ReplyDelete
  36. in case you are not aware, below is the link for the VIX futures, that UVXY follows.

    http://www.forexpros.com/indices/us-spx-vix-futures-advanced-chart

    ReplyDelete