$SPX - July Outlook Severely Bearish

SPX tested the orange midfork this week, and bounced sharply once it held firm as support.  There were negative cycles during the week, but that only resulted in a few significant down days rather than a sustained downtrend.  The negative cycles continue in July.

Minimal upside seems possible first into the 1370's, but overall the outlook is severely bearish in July.  The cycle analysis is very negative during the middle part of July with mixed positive and negative spots late in the month.  Therefore, late July is likely to be characterized by whipsaws.  August looks much more positive.         

30min Chart

$SPX - Short Term Update

A small bounce may occur at this level.  However, the cycle analysis remains very negative into July 3rd.  After some consolidation, the drop is likely to continue.

The July plan will be coming shortly. 

30min Chart

$SPX - Caution Warranted!!!!

There are positive cycles going into Monday.  SPX should bounce in Monday, but it may only be relatively minor.  Caution is warranted since the plunge yesterday was so deep.  There are numerous strong supports at this level and just below for now.  Therefore, a bounce and quiet markets for today and Monday is most likely.

Next week, the cycle analysis is extremely negative centered around June 29th.  A continuation of the drop next week is anticipated.       

30min chart



The bottom is likely in place for UVXY.  It should see a minor dip today at some point, but it may not dip as well on Monday as SPX bounces.  Therefore, a minor low could be in place today with a higher low on Monday. 

Today and Monday may be described as a choppy or sideways zone.

This is important.  Once it starts moving higher early next week, from the patterns, there will be HARDLY ANY DIPS on the way up! 

15min Chart



$SPX - More Time and Price Required

There is potential for a decent dip in the short term with negative cycles in place today.  However, there are a cluster of trendlines just above, and those are likely to be tested late this week.  A true top may require further time and price. 

Next week, the cycle analysis is negative all week, and extremely negative centered around June 29th.  A top for SPX is still possible early next week though.  Sometimes the market can ignore the negative cycles for a few days, but typically not for long. 

It is early now, but a late June sudden collapse appears practically unavoidable according to many different cycles. 

15min Chart

$SPX - Slow Week Ahead

There is such overwhelming talk of numerous "important" geopolitical events in the coming week that it is sure to be slow and quiet instead.  The cycles and charts remain bullish, and a slow grind up looks most likely for the week. 

Early in the week there will probably be a few whiffs of action with small rallies and dips, and then everything will just turn calm.

Of course, a calm market is a VIX killer...

15min Chart

$SPX - Big Rally Update

SPX managed to push up above the yellow fork resistance yesterday.  The sideways consolidation zone should be nearing completion in time with a more convincing surge in price higher next week.  

15min Chart

$SPX - Big Rally Coming

SPX has continued to follow the plan from June 4th analysis. Today, the deep retrace occurred, and another major rally phase is to commence shortly. 

SPX tested several major fork resistances.  The result was the false breakout early this morning.  The real breakout is coming soon to kick off a big rally up to the target zone!

Late June looks very weak again with a major decline anticipated.     

60min Chart

June 4th analysis shows the deep retrace that occurred today with another spike up to follow.

Chart from June 4th:

Daily Chart