$SPX - Taking it to the Limits

SPX took it to the limits of support, and managed to almost miraculously firm up, and held well on Monday. 

While the S&P futures came reasonably close to testing the critical red trendline on Friday, SPX held quite well comparatively.  SPX regular hours holds more weight rather than the futures in this analysis.

This week will be important for confirmation of the next short term movements within the bigger picture Cycle.  The Deja Vu Cycle suggested a move up to the green minimum target at least, in both scenario's, with potential up to the red maximum target area in the more bullish interpretation.   

The Deja Vu Cycle demands that taking appropriate precautions going forward is wise.   

30min Chart

 

Volatility ETF's were trading strangely on Monday.  It appears to be a fairly extreme short term example of a "fear bubble" that suddenly popped. 

 

Possibly the size of the drop on Monday for UVXY hints at the bullish scenario for SPX playing out. 

 

60min Chart

 

 



$SPX - Deja Vu Cycle Update

S&P futures fell after the market closed on Friday, and came close enough to testing the equivalent of the red trendline.  The most likely conclusion is that the sharp rally phase is already complete.

However, a secondary high is still likely to come in January as shown on the Deja Vu Cycle.    

60min Chart

Deja Vu Cycle from 2011:

Daily Chart

$SPX - Final Surge Up Next!

According to the Cycle there should be a powerful surge up (short term only) next.  The Deja Vu Cycle suggests a final surge up for SPX to complete the sharp rally phase from November. 

Timing for completion is estimated around January 4th +/-.

The bigger picture Deja Vu Cycle must always be respected.

30min Chart

 

Deja Vu Cycle from 2011:

Notice the placement of the red trendline! 

Daily Chart

Current Deja Vu Cycle for SPY:

Notice that SPY is still well above the red trendline!

Weekly Chart

 

$SPX - Sharp Rally Phase and VIX

The Deja Vu Cycle suggests a final spike up for SPX could occur soon to complete the sharp rally phase from the November low. 

The yellow arrow is shown to compare SPX with the location in the bigger picture Deja Vu Cycle.

VIX has been making higher highs since August.  VIX briefly traded above October/November levels on Friday.  In contrast, SPX is at much higher levels than the 1343 SPX November low. 

The behaviour of the VIX is further evidence to support the Deja Vu Cycle.  There was no fear in November during the gradual decline phase for SPX, but now fear is rising with SPX.

60min Chart

 




Bigger Picture:

Deja Vu Cycle from 2011:

 

Daily Chart

 

UVXY has been testing the lower fork and reached the green line on Friday.  UVXY is still within the downtrending fork.   

60min Chart

VIX popped on Friday, but then settled into the close. 

More importantly, notice that VIX bottomed in August, and has been making higher highs and higher lows since that time. 

VIX briefly traded above October/November levels on Friday with SPX closing almost 90 points higher than the November low for SPX. 

Daily Chart

$SPX - Testing Support

SPX has cooled off and is due to test supports this week.  Additional time spent in re-testing support is probable this week. 

30min Chart

$SPX - Deja Vu Cycle Update

Once the resistance area was broken, SPX pushed up and reached the short term target zone.  In fact, it was exceeded slightly, and right on time.  There is room in the Deja Vu Cycle for a dip and consolidation next.  A number of supports rest below. 

After some cooling off next, SPX may spike up quite strongly later this month according to this Cycle to complete the sharp rally phase. 

30min Chart

Deja Vu Cycle from 2011:

Daily Chart

SPY Deja Vu Cycle 2012:

Weekly Chart





$SPX - December Plan Updated

While dips may still be possible this upcoming week, the downside target area was practically tested already.  That may have been close enough.  If so, then dips may only be minor going forward with a relatively sideways market next.

Overall, the sharp rally phase is likely to continue for weeks to come.  Testing of the broadening top formation line is coming into striking distance. 

Equal timing and price measurements can be estimated with measured moves.

SPX may be at the yellow arrow in the Deja Vu cycle.  The red trendline is of critical importance.

60min Chart

Deja Vu Cycle from 2011:

Daily Chart

UVXY closed Friday testing the lower channel fork.  It may still bounce around, but when it drops below, then another final leg down looks likely soon.  It is early, though can start to look at preliminary estimates. 

The green line should be important in the future.

60min Chart