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Monday, October 29, 2012

$SPX - Short Term Update

So far SPX has had difficulty pushing up through the pink fork resistance last week, and consolidated sideways instead of bouncing much.  However, there is support at 1400 which has been holding. 

It may, or may not, trade a little lower this week, but there are numerous supports just below in any case.

Overall, the analysis indicates that the gradual decline phase from mid-September should be nearly complete.  There are very positive spots in November short term cycles.  The market could soon be in a position to spike up surprisingly sharply.

2 hour Chart
 
This fork has done an excellent job of defining resistance.  Fork resistance has been holding so far.  Even if it manages to push up here, then there should be heavy resistance just above (around the orange line).

A re-test of near the bottom is likely for UVXY in November. 

30min Chart

34 comments:

  1. So we'll see how things shape up once the markets re-open. A little lower probably is most likely next, but overall a strong push up in November looks probable.

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  2. HI SC
    Nov 23 is a strong fibo convergence that looks like a possible pivot low to kick off a year end rally. So any low at 1400 or under prior to that date could struggle along till then. How does that compare with what your cycle work shows- TIA-Jay

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    Replies
    1. Generally I think bottom out soon, and rally early Nov. The market could be quite positive around the election I suspect.

      Around Nov 21-22nd my cycle analysis does look weak. I think this may be a higher low.

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  3. Hi SC,

    How do you see the SPX playing out here ?

    Thanks,
    Alex

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    Replies
    1. Tricky spot in terms of the short term. The market is quiet, and I may just sit back and let things play out a little more here.

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  4. DOW

    http://img40.imageshack.us/img40/5444/dowk.jpg

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  5. Replies
    1. Generally I think there is a rally brewing but it still seems it may dip a little more first. Let's wait and see tomorrow. I'd like to see a clear signal.

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  6. Pretty good move in SPX ? SC , you still think a dip possible ?

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    Replies
    1. The dips seem to be limited to the futures overnight but not following through into regular hours.

      I doubt it is ready to break out just yet, but certainly there are signs of strenghtening now for SPX.

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    2. Internals feel weak, and VXX had huge volume yesterday. I think the SPX will break down as soon as this afternoon.

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    3. I think around the election is most likely for a real breakout and rally. The bottom may be in, but probably settle and cool off for a few days prior to the election.

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  7. Yesterday UVXY failed at the pink fork resistance. I may look to enter around $27.50 which would be just below the midfork support (for a bounce to $30ish).

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  8. I only had a modest position in XIV from $16.15. I thought there may be the opportunity to add more lower this week, but the market held up well. So I never added unfortunately.

    I sold it because UVXY reached my midfork support at $27.75.

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  9. I may look to enter UVXY in the low $27 area for a pop to $30ish next few days.

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  10. Replies
    1. Maybe. $26.50 is another spot if it doesn't stop in the low $27 area.

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  11. I think SPX should top out today, and drop into early next week. Then push higher again.

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  12. I am just surprised to see HVU made new low...when UVXI didn't make new low! anyone has any information why that happened?

    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. My data shows the low at $6.92 for Oct, and $7.16 today. I overlayed both charts and they are still in tune with each other according to my data.

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  13. SPX reached near the short term target area from Oct 24th analysis. That target analysis was done before the storm. Not an easy market to navigate, but the cycles still seem to be on track.

    I think it likely drops early next week to retest the bottom 1410 area.

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  14. Thanks SC, my mistake I was looking at different number!

    When you planning to add your next batch of UVXI?

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    Replies
    1. Would have been better to wait for today, but I bought UVXY yesterday at $27.25. Plan to sell on a decent pop $28's or $29's early next week. Then I'll look to reenter UVXY late next week.

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  15. SPX already testing 1420 level...down big for the day yet UVXY at a 2 month low....Have you heard of Decay ?

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  16. I'm out of UVXY at $27.23 for breakeven.

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  17. UVXY could go higher but decided to play it safe here. Even if it goes higher here, I pretty sure it'll be lower next week anyways.

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  18. Probably just sit in cash for weekend.

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  19. Should have had more patience.

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  20. Hi SC,

    What u think about next week based on today's action ??

    Thanks,
    Alex

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    Replies
    1. I have some interesting charts coming this weekend.

      Most likely the market heads a little lower on Monday, but I think the SPX is going to spike wildly up next week.

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