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Sunday, March 25, 2012

$SPX - Week Ahead

SPX put in lower lows and lower highs last week.  There is resistance at the orange fork line just above, and price may slump from that level.       

The cycle analysis does look quite positive around March 29th though, then negative into early April. 

15min Chart















The VIX found support at the fork line which has been important in marking turns in the past.  As well, a wedge pattern is in place along with large scale divergence going back to October.


Daily Chart

108 comments:

  1. UVXY premarket 14,50 / 14,90... i think 23/27 area it's a dream ..... i hope don't touch in the next days area 10....

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  2. Do you still see a spike? This thing just keeps dropping.

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  3. looks like metals put in the bottom and rallying on QE rumors.

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  4. yep, got a buy signal on daily silver, last two were on feb 21st and jan 3rd.

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  5. UVXY down another 8% to 14.50... so much for limited downside from 20. UGH

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    Replies
    1. It's right in that spot mentioned last week.

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    2. How is it right in the spot mentioned last week? It's down 30%, and now you expect it to spike 100%?

      Is your target still today/tomorrow? Is it still $28?

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    3. I mentioned last week when UVXY was around $18 that it looked like it was heading for $15 short term.

      The target is basically the same though it did come down $1 more so may reduce to $27.

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    4. What is your plan if by Wednesday if UVXY does not pop and continues to drop?

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    5. for uvxy to trade 27 s& p would need to drop 200 points

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    6. I plan to hold. The VIX can move independently of SPX at times. This is what happened Feb 10th. VIX spike with a flat SPX.

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    7. How long do you plan to hold for? You said VIX would spike by Tuesday at the latest. So if by then it doesn't spike, shouldn't you adjust your plan? How is Tuesday the latest if you're still holding expecting a spike later?

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    8. It's a good setup regardless of which day.

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  6. Any technical comment for TVIX? Any update on the TVIX's trade?

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    Replies
    1. TVIX still is trading at a 40 cent premium. From the CS news, it is still unclear whether or not CS is issuing fully. Therefore, that explains the premium.

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  7. we'll just have to wait for the final word from JAY "THE ORACLE" WIZZZZ. I'm waiting with bated breath.

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  8. I bought HVU at $3.77 for a flip. $4.50 - $5.00 would be great!

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  9. Seems I must be an idiot. You in just had some expert telling me how based on long term P/E (ie. the last decade)the S&P500 is undervalued!

    Funny, I thought that based upon over 100 years of P/E data that at a current P/E of just under 24, the third highest level in history mind you, that it was expensive.

    Stupid me!

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    Replies
    1. Where do you get a P/E of 24?

      1410 (current Price) / 24= $58.75. The S&P 500 earned more than $58.75 in the last 12 mionths.

      Delete
  10. SC, looks like its repeat of january-feb - metals are continuing to inflate. no fear trade again.

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  11. SC, are you looking to make a profit on your UVXY trade or get out at break even?

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    Replies
    1. At this rate, we will be lucky to break even, forget profit for now...unless something dramatically happen like sky falling down...still not seeing this dump we been waiting for...today news, Ben basically pump the market even higher...

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  12. Obviously SPX gapped over that orange resistance. The most probable imo is it dips to test that level around 1402 as support, and then slight new high this week.

    Last week was negative in the cycle analysis and that worked well. This week is mixed.

    However the cycle analysis is negative for the first 3 weeks in April in a row.

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    Replies
    1. Hi SC

      Do you agree on Ben comment, basically put a floor on 1400 today? Looking for your opinion.


      Thanks!

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    2. Perhaps a floor that may hold for a few days or even this week at best, but not next week imo.

      Delete
  13. Cbear2

    Hes still a "rude and slick dude"..........I like da way he optimizes results to trick the newbies to hang on!

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  14. SC, why bother with the main market at all? Metals move nice and are less complicated.

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    Replies
    1. Agree, and especially since mid-Feb the action in the metals has sure picked up.

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    2. Metals, especially silver are quite more volatile so be careful.

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    3. This is after you guys getting into TVIX mess?

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  15. METALS

    http://img838.imageshack.us/img838/2610/goldu.jpg

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    Replies
    1. Joes,

      So Gold will go low from today's 1680's?

      how about silver?

      Thanks

      Delete
  16. STOCK......

    I don't understand this ?

    "So Gold will go low from today's 1680's?"

    Best, joed

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    Replies
    1. Joe,

      Based on your chart I see green line touched around 1680, so are you expecting that resistance to break and go up from here or Gold should retreat?

      Sorry for confusion!

      Delete
  17. STOCK.......

    I see what your asking! I strickly trade what is in front of me with time in mind! I am showing time by the colored circles with price resistance etc. At this point because of the resistance I have moved stops up through by intra day charts, but I still have time to go! Best, joed


    http://img804.imageshack.us/img804/2626/goldko.jpg

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  18. SC, you still sticking with this UVXY??? When do you concede you are wrong? I mean come on.

    HVU was supposed to be at $7.50 minimum. Do you realize that is a double now? I'll ride that one short term, but now thinking I should have entered towards the end of the day.

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    Replies
    1. we need more than double to make 7.5, there is decay and contango now too...

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    2. from 20 to 13.60... thats a bad trade no sugar coating it

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    3. This is not a day trade for me. Yes, too early but I am building a position and my avg will be much lower.

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    4. looks like avg will be much much lower ... I am getting killed on this..

      Delete
  19. Sc,

    Is a downside still possible for the POS or the bottom is really in this time?

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    Replies
    1. It is early to say. I'd like to see some better confirmation.

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  20. SC,

    Where did you buy your UVXY? Are you looking to double down? I think this one can double easily if your 1040 target is dead on.

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  21. HVU printing 3.59 now, if this goes any lower (perhaps under $3), is there a chance of a reverse split?

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  22. anyone see any issue that can cash a 400 points drop in snp? this year???


    Thanks!

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  23. GOLD

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/820/goldeg.jpg/

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  24. the debt ceiling debacle will make another appearance in October, and I see that being the big drop in the markets...any drops now I think are short term.

    Still, even at $3.77 entry on HVU my stomach is turning. Just hoping that SC is right fractionally. Will be happy with $4+ !

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  25. Interesting to see that market was relying earlier on economic data positive surprises. Now that the data is becoming negative (seasonal effects over?) its all about QE again. Not sure how high the S&P 500 will go from here till the end of this week, but next week will be interesting.

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  26. Can anyone provide S&P short ETF? Toronto Stcck exchange please

    Thanks

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  27. Can anyone please explain quickly?

    How exactly HVU works?

    Thank you

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  28. Hi SC, I must say the S&P has moved up faster and higher than I thought today. What do you see as the high or how will the action play out from here?

    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. My suspicion is that it could grind up higher for a few days this week. Day after day but gaining very little. I do think it'll end with a dive.

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    2. and TVIX/HVU/UVXY in the meanwhile? Likely to tank if your suspicion holds true. I find it somewhat concerning that yuo haven't altered your approach in the face of massive losses SC on UVXY.

      I resepect you for your work here, but unfortunately you r work is only as good as your last call or two or 3. While you called some weakness in teh market alst week, your call on VIX futures products has been nothing short of terrible. No one has a crystal ball, but you sure put yourself out there with your UVXY predictions. I would like nothing more than to see you be right by the way, so don't take this the wrong way.

      Delete
    3. I made profits on these in Feb. I was too early on this in March, but I still see this working out well in the end.

      Delete
    4. If I recall correctly, you sold TVIX around $20 and then rebought around $20 because you thought it may have went parabolic. I don't think it went much above $21, and I don't think you posted if you sold that position.

      Your predictions for SPX have been fairly accurate, but in terms of TVIX/HVU/UVXY, they have been pretty off. I can only remember 2-3 times when you predicted it would rise and it did, but not anywhere near your targets. There has usually been a lot of downside when you've predicted "minimal" downside.

      As SS76 said, don't take this the wrong way, I too would like to see you be right. It's just hard to see this thing go down 10-15%/day when there is minimal downside.

      Delete
  29. What is your target? It doesn't look like $27 UVXY will be reached tomorrow or anytime soon. SC, at what point do you give up on your position?

    You were quite accurate around February 10th, buying TVIX at $14.xx and having it reach $20.xx. But, looking back to your earlier work, you've also realized you were wrong and exited.



    "SCJan 22, 2012 09:10 AM

    Yes, that is correct it is already confirmed in my symmetrical pattern ckorey. I know what I see, and yes, it is definitely setting up. The probability is 100% from my work.

    I have not announced the timing and setup yet, but will be soon.

    On Friday I went long VIX futures via TVIX at $20.21 with a large position. This is a trade with $28.80 area being a short term target around Jan 30-31."



    "SCJan 25, 2012 06:25 AM

    Covered all my shorts, and unloaded TVIX. Maybe this is a little earlier than optimal as the market could dip more this morning, but I'm not taking chances.

    The TVIX in particular is concerning because if the mkt does form a blow off top next as I suspect, then TVIX could drop to $14-15 area."



    On January 25th, TVIX closed at $17.68, so at that point you did realize your initial call was wrong. What is different about this time?

    Not trying to criticize your work, just trying to gain insight on your position.

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    Replies
    1. By target, I meant target date.

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    2. I definitely have no problem taking a loss or repositioning if it makes sense.

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    3. I don't see much point of that though and I'll explain why.

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    4. Ok, so when do you see HVU hitting $7.50 (and I don't mean after it reverse splits)?

      Also, you are now expecting the market to grind higher this week, with the 29th being very positive.....what does that mean for HVU?

      $7.50 by the way was suppose to be the target last week...

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    5. Hi SC

      There is something wrong with those two responses above. Wondering how you can take a loss and reposition but dont see a point in doing it now. The Market looks like it can go higher, isnt it wise to take the loss now and reposition. Unless you see something really near term that suggest a dive, but you mention before you see positive on the 29th, so no way in near term we going to dive.

      confused.

      Thanks!

      Delete
    6. Are you going to explain?

      Anyway, I've lost what little faith I had in this ETF and took my loss. But for some reason, I think you will be right about a spike in the future, I just don't know when or if I can stomach a further decline before we get there.

      Delete
    7. It is best to view the SPX and these separately as we saw last week. As well, I just think the majority view is so polarized now that is isn't worth chasing after.

      What happens after the top tick. This is what is important. I'll give the bullish case the benefit of the doubt for the next several days, but I see 3 straight weeks of negative cycles coming. This is why I want to be positioned.

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    8. So you're saying starting next week we will see 3 straight weeks of negative cycles? For the past month you've been predicting negative cycles, and although sometimes correct, only one cycle has really produced a gain in HVU, that being the March 7 +/- day. The rest of the time HVU has been sideways or down during an SPX decline. What makes this negative prediction better than the negative prediction for March 23/26th and all the others?

      What concerns me is, first, your prediction for negative cycles must be correct, and second, even if they are UVXY/HVU could still decline as before.

      Also, given what you said, would you say Friday would be a good day to enter a position?

      Delete
    9. The cycle analysis for SPX worked well for March. The market clearly responded to it. The difference for April is that there are sustained negative cycles. The VIX and related futures move in downtrends especially once they become established.

      Let's see how things develop over the next couple days - around Thurs looks interesting.

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    10. How do you expect HVU/UVXY to behave for the following 3 weeks?

      You were expecting a 99% probability for UVXY to be at $28 by March 27th by the latest. What happened to that?

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    11. There is a pattern that I have in mind. The timing issue is because there was only a $3 pop on the 22nd. I still expect a larger spike to come.

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    12. So you're saying because UVXY only went up $3, that's why it didn't continue to rise to $28 on the 23rd and 26th? So because UVXY didn't rise as much as you expected, that's why it didn't reach your target? But you expect that spike to come later? March 22 - 26th behaved almost exactly opposite as you predicted. The only part that was right was SPX declined on the 22nd.

      If that spike doesn't come later, couldn't you say something along the same line?

      Anyway, I appreciate your response. Overall predictions in SPX movement have been fairly accurate, just not the movement in UVXY/HVU.

      Delete
  30. Let's blame Ben for this crazy run on market....

    two weeks ago he said there won't be QE3 and today he gave hint of QE3!

    Is he playing or have big interest in market?

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  31. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  32. phanton

    Your a funny guy! lol

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  33. phantom

    I could not find your chart of the action at this time........can you repost? joed

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  34. unfortunately this blog is turning into doom and gloom talk with one critical component being way off - time. fighting the tape, just like any other guy.

    SC, i liked your original thinking in the summer where you said that we dive but then spike higher into 1380's. This is exactly what we got and i still cant figure out how come you did not recognize and reposition for your original high target. May be thats not what you meant, but whatever - its not important anymore almost 300 handles higher.

    Many great posters seem to have left this place for a good reason.

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  35. TZA.....................

    http://img707.imageshack.us/img707/8523/tzaf.jpg

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  36. Sc, please. You say you want to be positioned but now the negative cycle doesn't start till next week? Do you realize that uvxy will be under $10???

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    Replies
    1. I hear you, but it could start as soon as late this week. As well these can slow down as SPX is finishing. That is typical so the movement may slow down.

      Delete
  37. Cycle confirmed as active next high due 2-4 April

    http://change-in-trend.blogspot.com/

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  38. Hello SC,

    Silver 1 Hour chart shows significant negative divergence for MACD(8,17,9) and STOCHASTIC(21,5,3) and also ROC(12). The some situation is also true for Gold.

    BollingerPercentage and Disparity Index shows also significant negative divergence for Gold 4 Hour time frame charts.

    What do you think/expect for Silver & Gold?
    Can you see any topping clue for Gold and Silver?

    Please share your thoughts and comments.

    Thanks, appreciated.
    RB

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  39. What I notice is that Gold is stronger than Silver. This is a clue that the tide is starting to turn. However, I still think they need more time to settle.

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  40. SC,

    please Provide your view on HVU? is it buy at 3.40 area?

    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. What is interesting is that it is up with the market this morning. That is a good sign that it is approaching a low. It could use some more time, but the value is there. Come April all these prices will look attractive.

      Delete
  41. Do you think that Silver makes another Low before taking off SC?

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  42. SC.. whats your SPX target low for april?

    Jan.. feb.. march didn't plan out.. hopefully april we nail it.

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    Replies
    1. I'll do an update soon with April targets.

      Everyone seems polarized right now. 1440 seems a consensus. The mkt does not like to give everyone what they want. It might reach 1430 if lucky. Really overcrowded.

      April cycles are weak.

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  43. what do you expected uvxy to be by end of april?

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    Replies
    1. I'm going to review that further.

      Delete
  44. i think we can see 1040 end of april.

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    Replies
    1. ppl..how about let get to 1300 first lol LOL LOL

      Delete
  45. Ann and or unknown from your lips to Gods ear!!!

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  46. SC must have good reason. He allows people who are critical of him to post and doesn't mind balance, so to delete your posts there must be good reason.

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  47. HVU up 20% today. Still a long way to go, but good one day move.

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  48. RB,

    How are you doing with your silver trades.. Im guessing by your comments that you are waiting for a topping out action and the eventual 17 dollars that SC suggested. I hope you get if you're leveraged up on it. Personally i don't know if its going to happen.. the time line by SC seems to be getting stretched out further and further.. makes me wonder if his analysis works.

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  49. SC

    does your cycle analysis turn negative after end of this week?>

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    Replies
    1. It turns negative on Friday, and most of next week is negative especially around the 6th.

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    2. Markets closed on Friday March 6th.

      Delete
  50. Hi ILUVPM,

    Actually I don't have trade capability and I am not good enough to make swing trade. I just try to buy and sell at good levels but SC's 17$ expectation scares me that's why I pay attantion to gold-silver prices. I think SC's analysis might be true and big drop possible because everything possible for silver market. :-)

    RB

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. By the way I am a finance student at university. I am still learning. :-)

      Delete
  51. Hey SC

    Is it time to bet big on HVU/TVIX/UVXY now going into April, at or is it a good idea to wait?


    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. I'm already in and plan to hold for a while. At this point maybe give it a few days as we have sideways mkt.

      Delete
    2. SC, I think that is good advice.

      Delete
  52. I actually think XIV before todays close could be a good buy...

    ReplyDelete