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Wednesday, March 21, 2012

$VIX - Moderate Pop Expected

As mentioned earlier, the cycle analysis is negative into the end of the week for SPX.  VIX can see a moderate pop during this period with a breakout of an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern.

SPX could decline into Friday or Monday.  

10min Chart















Downside on UVXY looks minimal with a decent move higher targeted short term.

30min Chart

165 comments:

  1. If your spx target is corect what target would you have for vxx by end of April?

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  2. Hold that thought for a bit as I have a specific plan coming for late March and early April.

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  3. Hy Sc , uvxy it's a disaster.... . From split 34 now, 17,80... -50% in 2 weeks. - 30% in last 3 days . Sp500 is down from friday . I lose much money in this ETF .

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I had to reposition on this one myself, but now in decent shape after having sold above $26, and reloading yesterday/today. I'm feeling like I have a good plan in place to make nice gains next few weeks to start with.

      Delete
    2. SC, if I recall correctly, when uvxy was at $27 you wanted to sell at $28 and reload at $24. You suggested at that point to hold, I don't remember you saying you actually sold above $26. If I missed that, my apologies.

      You also predicted February 27/28th being a low and apple topping at $578. You have been accurate, but I'd say wrong just as many times. I mean no disrespect, but I'm just concerned about holding HVU at this point. What makes this weeks prediction different?

      Delete
    3. Feb was not a great month as the mkt was slowly grinding up which simply means that the cycles were only picking up minor moves. However, my cycles have been clicking nicely in March. The turns have been smooth around my dates.

      I do think that I have a good plan going forward. Many different methods are adding up so that gives confidence.

      Here's where I sold:

      SCMar 14, 2012 11:43 AM
      Dumped UVXY, will plan to pick it up again lower.

      Delete
    4. I'm actually faily pleased with my Apple call. Remember, when I proposed the $578 target, Apple was $500, so a trade would have done well there. No, it didn't pinpoint the top, and has overshot, but still decent. I do think Apple is ready to correct now also.

      Delete
    5. The higher low on the VIX looks good, also TVIX has been firming lately. These are all good confirmations.

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    6. I forgot about that. Sorry SC. I hope you're right about this week.

      Delete
    7. No problem. It all adds up to a high degree of confidence.

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    8. SC, I am holding HVU which is way underwater and it's dropping like a rock everyday that made me very painful.
      What is your suggestion and target price for HVU.
      Will very appreciate for your reply!!
      Thanks!

      Delete
    9. $7.50 is the spot to watch next few days imo. I think it'll struggle and dip from there, but in the first week of April $9.50 is what I'm looking at.

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    10. HVU is printing $4.65, what do you think is good entry point? Does this go lower tomorrow?
      Thanks SC

      Delete
    11. I like it right here. Really nothing for downside imo.

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    12. I'm assuming $7.50 for march 23/26 is the max target, what is your minimum?

      Thanks

      Delete
    13. I think that is a minimum.

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    14. Lol, I like the sound of that! I hope you're right! What is your maximum then? Or is that the $9.15? Do you still see $10.90?

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    15. I just like that $7.50 level. Then once it settles back, $9.15-50 is the next spot first week of April. $10.90 is probably too much.

      Delete
  4. Looking forward to your plan,SC. I am completely stymied at forecasting here. I have Friday/Monday as a turn and the following Fri/Mon as well.I'm slightly biased in thinking we hit the low first and pop into next period. Good trading to all and thanks for the charts SC.

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  5. BEANS/SILVER

    http://img845.imageshack.us/img845/4954/beansh.jpg

    http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/684/silver240.jpg/

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  6. How about $2 as a target for HVU. There has been a consistent drop the last three days. According to your calculation when will the SPX fall below 1400. Please explain this SC.

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    Replies
    1. There is really no downside at this level for UVXY and others from my analysis. SPX started to decline on the 20th as expected. SPX can continue this decline into the 23rd or 26th according to my cycle analysis.

      Delete
    2. HI SC
      I went on record today at 9:33am AM for a low on the 26th and possibly the 27th at 12;30pm

      the only reason it was published at 9:30, and not earlier was that it was first sent to the VPN group at 8:30am

      How low is LOW?
      Tuesday at 12;30pm is my answer

      there are others who can stick out their necks to be bashed when those price projections are not met. but not me-

      BEST Wishes FOR NOW
      Jay

      Delete
  7. We will see this decline into 23rd or 26th. You should post past picks and trades so your words carry more weight.

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  8. SC, are metals done? Silver has already begun its prolonged down trend?

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    Replies
    1. No not ready for that, but we need to see them solidify before a move higher.

      Delete
  9. Here's whar the WIZ does....... so that he can handle both sides, one of the members track his smoke


    "Taking a quick look at JAY's Blog I see that last week on Mon.
    March 12, he states "Bearish week ahead" and on Tues. March 13
    "Bears get ready..do you hear the vacuum cleaner". But the market had a super week last week with a 25 pt move in S&P500
    on Tuesday alone! On tyhis past Sunday Jay looks for price to drop on Mon.&Tues to 1370-1340. And Tues.pre-opening he had EKG graph showing a low at 12:30 and Neg. Energy at 1:12. But actual low occurred before 10:00 a.m. These turns are real short term, so someone waiting for a low after 12:30 would have missed the up trend.On this same EKG from Tuesday a.m. we have a glimpse of the WED opening and it shows market dropping into 10:30 at 180b. But in the above message Jay states "potential for a good start til maybe 11 am" etc. What's up?? Down to 10:30 or up to 11:00 ??
    The Elliot Wave techs have Monday's high as the end of (3) and we drop in (4) or we have one more rally to (3)at 1426-1440 and a Dow target of 13,500 Giddy up!!"




    ............hes always correct in his mind! Now calling a low date........hahahahhahahaha, BIG DEAL! He loves the TROLL.............well if ya lose money with emm maybe he can get ya a toothbrush at cost! lol

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  10. HEY WIZZZZZZZZZZZ,

    I will give ya credit for mending your ways after one of the guys called ya on it and another site gave ya hell! You no longer steal others work and charts and call them your research! CAN YA IMAGINE?????? hahahahahahah What a piece of work! gj

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  11. JOHN


    HAHAHAHAHAH....your killing me! That's the mantra! "JUST A RUDE DUDE".......................hahahaahahahahah! james

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  12. Please explain the negative roll yield and its effects on HVU and UVXY. http://www.thestreet.com/story/11448773/1/vxx-negative-roll-yield.html. Thanks SC.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Basically these funds are constantly rolling over VIX futures. There is a cost to do this, and that is why the funds will decay over time in a flat market. This is normal.

      The idea is to look for spots when the VIX futures can spike. Typically these are not long term holds, but rather quick moves.

      Delete
  13. SC, Gold call turned out to be down side surprise vs. upside.

    1580-1600 next?

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    Replies
    1. HI Am
      62% of the DEC 28low to FEB 28 high
      on SILVER would take the price to 30.44 on MAR 30th
      NOTE THE GANN relationship of the dates

      That would take Gold to about the 1518 level
      on the same date - its about a 50/1 ratio.

      they are locked into the same cycle

      ps; to anyone who wants to post a comment on Jaywiz blog -- JUST become a TEAM MEMBER

      Jay

      Delete
    2. Jay, if gold sells down to 1518, gold silver ratio will be much higher and silver will be in the mid 20s. 50GSr and 1500 gold - i dont think so.

      Delete
  14. I just graphed SC's "orange" pitchfork on Netdania for gold daily using his previous points and looks like we just bounced off his bottom pitchfork leg.
    SC am i correct on that ?

    Also, using netdania "ichimoku" for daily gold we just broke below the "cloud" cover and on a DMA basis, we just dropped below the 250 DMA with the 300 DMA presently at 1609. I love Netdania !

    I'm clueless but it would seem a bounce off the 300 DMA (like Dec 28, 2011) could make sense although a bounce off SC's pitchfork bottom leg could mean we are headed upward from here. From what I've read elsewhere a break below 1585 could signal very bad things to come.

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  15. "From what I've read elsewhere a break below 1585 could signal very bad things to come."

    Well, thats what SC forecasting for metals anyway. The only thing he was expecting one final pop, perhaps winter monster rally was it.

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    Replies
    1. man, if gold and silver drop like a rock, i would be finally getting some physical lol, and just carry it around like two-face from batman lol

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    2. Some folks are still carrying it from 1980 ... all the way to the grave. lol

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    3. probably sell it for a cup of beer before I hit the stone lol

      Delete
  16. Yes, GLD is right at that orange fork. There probably is minimal downside, but I still see a large move up setting. So for now we wait....

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    Replies
    1. Hi SC

      would you consider selling your UVXY today? or you waiting for the 28$ to happen no matter what like around friday or monday?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. I'll give it some time and review tomorrow. The cycle analysis is quite negative late today, and tomorrow. VIX is flirting with that neckline now.

      Delete
    3. SC, i was always wondering whats "minimal downside"? 10, 20, 50, 100?

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    4. It's minimal relative to the next move. In this case I'd say around 30 for Gold.

      Delete
  17. Hi SC,

    Can this level be opportunity to buy Gold & Silver?
    Or we need to wait a bit more?

    Thanks.
    RB

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm waiting to see it develop further. The opportunity will present itself soon imo.

      Delete
  18. Why does UVXY/HVU seem to have closer to 2x losses but only 1x gains when compared to the VIX futures?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Because it a scam production lol. jking. not sure, maybe SC knows

      Delete
  19. Many people are starting to say that TVIX is a lost cause. Any opinions?

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  20. The TVIX premium has been growing steadily. It is getting large, and it could continue to grow. It trades off supply and demand rather that in tune with the VIX futures.

    There are positives and negatives to it. The potential of the premium growing is the positive, and that has been the case so far. It could do extremely well in a down market. It is somewhat unpredictable though since it really is not tracking the VIX futures any longer.

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    Replies
    1. Are you still holding your TVIX?

      Delete
    2. SC, so why would demand grow if no longer trades in tune with VIX futures.
      In other words what is there to drive demand?

      Delete
    3. Remember I showed that example with GAZ. TVIX is in the same situation, and it is possible that it could bubble wildly similar to GAZ.

      Demand can grow for several reasons. Some may be tempted to short TVIX thinking that they can profit from an eventual contraction in the premium. This could then lead to a short squeeze. Also TVIX is well-known as a "go to" product.

      Delete
  21. Well all I can add is that at some point Credit Suisse will issue new creation units as they have said that the suspension is only tempory.
    The only question is when :)

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  22. Silver is not moving with or inversely to the S&P anymore, its just moving down!

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  23. SC,

    Can you please provide quick comments on silver after looking current chart?

    Are you planning to add or wait for tomorrow?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  24. Hello SC

    curious to know, when we reach UVXY 28 ish, what price range of drop you may be expecting? before we go higher?

    same as HVU.


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm thinking it could retrace quite a bit, 75% perhaps.

      Delete
  25. SC well given the action in TVIX one have to conclude that there is some heavy shorting down 12% as I type.
    Is it time to buy TVIX?

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    Replies
    1. I'm watching it closely. I think it is extremely dangerous to short it. If enough shorts accumulate on it, then it could blow sky high with or without the VIX!

      The dilemma is that to buy it one has to pay a premium. That makes it speculative. I think one has to assess it uniquely. It other words it is a short squeeze play based on supply/demand rather than a play on the VIX futures.

      Let's see how it unfolds...

      Delete
    2. Interesting!! TVIX down over 10%!!

      Delete
    3. SC could be a nice spec play.
      The other thing is that a huge amount of that premium has just been wiped and if CS lift the suspension then it could explode.
      Isn't that what happened to GAZ?

      Delete
  26. SC.....
    whats the downside target on the spx?

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  27. 1369-72 is a spot to watch.

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  28. TOMRROW afternoon could offer a VERY BIG BREAK DOWN
    March 23rd at 2:30'sh pm
    Jay

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    Replies
    1. You're to be commended Jay. It was a good call yesterday.
      I think Sc's target of low 1370's is a good one

      Delete
  29. And so the plot thickens. Rumors of a Class action against Credit Suisse

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  30. EMINI.........

    Looks like a P3 on the 240 MIN chart........something to be aware of if short! joed

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  31. Bought 750 TVIX @ $10.59. Based on the premium of around 10% based on the current price and where the April futures of the VIX.

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  32. SC,

    What's your strategy for the end of the day? Continue to hold UVXY?

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Holy Crash batman, TVIX down 28% !?!?! WTF???

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  34. Story out about heavy shorting in TVIX. If stocks continue to decline we could get one very explosive short covering.
    I think I'm gonna have to take the bait here.
    What about you SC are you tempted?

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    Replies
    1. I don't believe that for a second. You can't borrow the stock!

      That being said. I bought 1000 today.

      Delete
    2. Tempting, let's see what it does in the morning.

      Delete
  35. What does this last half hour mean? Still confident we'll reach $7.50?

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    Replies
    1. That was annoying but still same plan.

      Delete
  36. UVXY... I was sitting with nice almost 4k profit on my 2500 shares @18.17 that I bought yesterday. (This is where stops should be used) and BAM its all wiped away in last 30 minutes. Vix is not tradeable it is obviously manipulated.. Uvxy was trading at 26 last week when SPY was 139.50 and today 18.

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  37. Credit Suisse to re-open TVIX issuance tomorrow.Somebody knew.

    THE GAME IS RIGGED!

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/credit-suisse-publicly-announces-reopening-tvix-share-issuance-hours-after-private-leak-crushes?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I totally agree. A lot of people at the top made gobs of money today off of this "leak". I think "leak" is a nicer way to put it, but I would use the term "conspiracy". These people know the SEC won't do anything, it's so freaking easy for them to steal from the average Joe where everyone is speculating on volatility.... We could see similar events in other ETFs in the future. VXX anyone?

      Delete
  38. One has to wonder if this whole scenario was a set up. What's the bet that big buyers will step in that sold out on the leaks knowing that the markets are teetering and will now make a killing back on the way up?

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    Replies
    1. Definitely a scam. The timing was also suspect on a decent up day for the VIX. Also yesterday was the third largest down day for the S&P this year. Coincidence? Not likely with those odds.

      Delete
  39. Hi SC what is your outlook on the S&P going forward from here?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think there is more downside for SPX today, and Monday.

      Delete
  40. How does today look? I'm finding it hard to believe we'll gain 50% to get to $7.50 HVU.

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    Replies
    1. i am in your boat richard...hard to see it give us 7.5, when we still in the 4 ish...

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    2. That is still the target, and timing is soon.

      Delete
  41. I'm still expecting the VIX to spike, and soon. It flirted with the neckline yesterday. SPX is in a clear decline.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi SC

      we will drop in spx, but VIX rise is another story isn’t it? cause spx can drop, vix can drop or rise, remember tvix? Lol


      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. I hope that's today. I don't feel very comfortable holding this over the weekend.

      Delete
    3. The problem with TVIX was that the premium evaporated. That is a separate issue from the VIX itself.

      The timing of when the VIX moves and SPX are different of course. Usually VIX is quiet for a while with traders not believing the downturn, then it spikes all of a sudden.

      Delete
    4. Do you still see a spike as VIX futures are dropping? I'm starting to feel like I should just cut my losses.

      Delete
    5. I think the downside is minimal so I'm staying. Yes a spike is imminent imo.

      Delete
    6. What's minimal? You started going long around $20 and its been dropping 10%/day. I'd agree that's minimal if we'd see a 100% upside, but it doesn't feel like that's going to happen.

      Delete
    7. Bottom line I'm buying down here because I am confident I'll make profits at the price. The cycles have lined up very well this month so there are good solid reasons in place.

      In fact, I would not mind if this dribbles down a little further today. I already have a sizable position and if that occurs I'm going to get quite aggressive. Great opportunity.

      Delete
    8. Let's assume that we don't see the spike you're predicting. When do you call it quits and take the loss? At this point I can't imagine a spike over 10%.

      Delete
    9. It's going to happen. It's stretched, and it's going to slingshot up.

      Delete
    10. SC, I've heard that before, when you targeted $14.20 for HVU and $23 for TVIX.


      SCFeb 14, 2012 10:14 AM

      I'll plan to buy back in the $17's. This TVIX is like an elastic band right now. Wonderful to trade though often difficult to be precise...


      I guess it did rise, but not to where you projected. I just can't see the target of $7.50. I think I'll take any pop upward today/Monday and cut my losses.

      Delete
  42. The nature of the VIX is that when it moves it spikes fast, and gaps.

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  43. SC,
    Gold looking like a breakout brewing. Any opinions ? I was thinking this was a headfake but if it breaks 1670 ????

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It sure looks strong, and it is showing relative strength compared to Silver. Same as my theory. Still early but could be the start.

      Delete
  44. Welll TVIX is now back at NAV so I guess at least now if things tank it should recover. So what do I do. Buy UVXY,VXX or TVIX?
    It's just that I think TVIX may still be the better vehicle if there is a substantial decline.

    ReplyDelete
  45. hvu at 4.61 ...getting to 7.5 today is seeming like dream...looked at AAPL drop to 542.8, then bounced back to 590 ish ... so much manipulation to get it higher...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yeah, as much as I want to believe SC's call, I'm finding it hard to.

      Not only that, but it seems like HVU/UVXY follows VIX futures @ 2x - 3%. It's just always going down.

      Delete
    2. seriously 7.50... 5.50 is a dream at this point.

      Delete
  46. Euro (FXE) very powerful looking here. Could help Gold Silver
    and Stocks

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  47. Do not know why Sc remove my posts. Always have a balance of sides.

    ReplyDelete
  48. It seems bulls winning today, what a come back! HVU continues to print all time lows, it looks like countdown :).

    Everything in the green now, unbelievable!

    ReplyDelete
  49. Below is the extract from Silver Wheaton yearly report, important thing to note is they sold only 21 odd million ounces from 25.7 million ounces and expect to hit new record next year production....just a thought for bulls when it comes to supply and demand and same time not everything on market is being sold out as some argues.

    Silver Wheaton Corp. (TSX: SLW.TO)(NYSE: SLW.TO) says that the company set production, operating and financial records in 2011. Production totaled 25.4 million silver equivalent ounces, an increase of 7% over 2010 as well as revenue rising 73% to $730 million based on 21.1 million ounces of silver equivalent sold, the company says. Net earnings rose 92% to $550 million or $1.56 per share while operating cash flows increased by 96% to $626.4 million or $1.77 per share. "Silver Wheaton finished 2011 with its strongest ever quarter of production and sales," says Randy Smallwood, president and chief executive officer of Silver Wheaton. "We are proud to have now grown for three consecutive years, and in 2011 we achieved record annual production levels of over 25 million silver equivalent ounces.” In 2012, Silver Wheaton expects to increase attributable production by 6% to approximately 27 million silver equivalent ounces, including 16,500 ounces of gold. Silver Wheaton is a Canadian-based company with projects located across the Americas and Europe.

    ReplyDelete
  50. NDX is leading down today.

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  51. If I see around $15 for UVXY I'm going to get very aggressive. Target is $28 next day or 2. Great setup.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Next day or 2, so does that mean March 26/27th?

      Delete
    2. The 27th at the very latest.

      Delete
    3. The target dates seem to get further away and lower every week.

      What would you say the probability of us realizing what you're saying is?

      Delete
    4. hi SC

      what if in the next day or 2, your target didnt get to 28, but get to 10$ instead..would you sell your UVXY?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    5. I can understand that. However, I have done the analysis and it matches up many different ways. I'm sure.

      Delete
  52. WOW, HVU is at $4.30. I am sure glad I cut my losses there. Even with a VIX futures spike, it will be extremely difficult to recoup your losses unless a major event happens, and that doesn't appear to be a possibility any time soon.

    I think Silver is a better bet at this point.

    ReplyDelete
  53. if target is 20's WHY not buy now

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The chart above caught the first low nicely, and I have a similar chart showing a bottom around $15 today. Then spike to around $28!

      I agree, and I think it is excellent at every price. Yet I will give it a little time and stick with the chart. Getting ready to load up.

      Delete
    2. So you think it'll spike nearly 100% in the next few days? How likely do you think it is for this to occur?

      If it sounds too good to be true, it usually is.

      Delete
    3. Yes, that what I am seeing. 99%. This would be a fairly normal move for the VIX.

      Delete
    4. Hi SC

      correct me if I am wrong, but just cause VIX move, it doesnt meant those VIX production like UVXY, TVIX move accordly. Dont they follow the future of VIX, not actual VIX?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    5. Well the chart I've shown is the VIX, and that inverse H&S is still good.

      The move that I am looking for is based on a chart for UVXY itself (among other things). The VIX chart is just a simpler way to show the setup.

      Delete
    6. But, you also saw today as a very negative day. Markets are in the green.

      I have no idea if this stranger on the internet is for real or playing around (no offense to you, it's my fault getting into this either way). But at this point, compared to what you're projecting, there really is minimal downside, so I've got no choice but to hold. If we even see half of what you're saying, I'll be happy.

      If for any reason you no longer believe this, please say so. I'll exit my position, take my losses and enjoy my life. It is this seemingly false hope that is killing me.

      Delete
    7. And honestly, 99% probability just seems unbelievable. I couldn't imagine anything with that great of a return being that probable. No offense, but that makes me seriously doubt the credibility of this analysis and blog. But, I know I'd kick myself much harder if I cut now and missed out than if I lose another 10%. So I'll hang on for a few more days...

      Delete
    8. SPX has been in line with my cycles and the dates have been good. It started to drop on the 20th as expected, and then I also said end of the week looked negative. Yesterday was the third largest decline for SPX this year.

      So SPX has been in line with the cycle. The VIX futures have not responded to this downturn YET. My analysis is strongly showing that they do snap back into line.

      Delete
  54. SC I would really like your opinion on TVIX here.

    Word is that short selling has been rampant the last two days and given that CS have reopened issuance coupled with any drop in the SPX and spike in volitilty I would think that TVIX could explode off these levels into the 20's.

    What do you think?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I read the news release from CS carefully and it is unclear whether they could supply enough to meet demand in the case of a short squeeze. So yes that could be possible though I don't know how to assess the probability of that occurring.

      TVIX still has a small premium. 30 cents roughly.

      I do like this setup for the VIX spiking so that would be a positive for TVIX. Whether or not it sees a short squeeze is speculative. Put it this way a person can pay the extra 30 cent premium for TVIX and then have the short squeeze potential.

      Delete
  55. SC, why not buy TVIX near its INAV and take advantage of the short covering along with the VIX spike you are predicting:
    http://www.thedisciplinedinvestor.com/blog/2012/03/23/tvix-update-and-a-trading-idea/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+thedisciplinedinvestor%2FEBHR+%28The+Disciplined+Investor%29

    ReplyDelete
  56. gonna wait for 15ish... patience

    ReplyDelete
  57. Only thing to consider is, the short covering is probably happening as we speak.

    ReplyDelete
  58. HI AM
    YOU right about that - NOT GONNA MAKE IT TO 1518
    at least not for a while

    1628 yesterday was a perfect 62% on a new moon day & was on a Gann cycle stop point

    however
    as I count the waves there still might be a 5th wave lower coming to 1586 @ 78% retrace on March 30, a Qtr moon and another Gann cycle point.

    FROm there, it could get as high as 62% to 78%
    of the 395pts lost to the low
    so
    1586+245=1831
    or
    1586+308=1894

    and so far the MKT today at 2pm is asleep w 1398 as strong resistence
    Best Wishes
    Jay
    ps;
    im working on a gold graph to publish at the blog
    dont know If I can finish it today.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. So still expecting a big breakdown?

      Delete
    2. HI Beetlejuice
      SEND ME AN EMAIL and I'll give you my graphic projection for gold, and as far as stocks
      OH yeh - NEXT week will rattle a few bull pens
      That goes for Mr. AM also.
      thnx
      Jay

      Delete
    3. rattling the bulls just like:

      "TOMRROW afternoon could offer a VERY BIG BREAK DOWN
      March 23rd at 2:30'sh pm"

      I don't think the bulls would mind one bit. Seriously Jay, you shouldn't bother about this sensationalistic bullshit. We know all about your 'scientific' resources.

      Delete
  59. EMINI SUPPORT

    I posted yesterday of the P3 and now p5 is complete at support! joed

    http://img525.imageshack.us/img525/2421/emini.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  60. If you believe VIX will rise in next 2 trading days will you be adding to your UVXY position before the close ?? You could miss enitire move if we open lower Monday

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    1. Yes there are concerns about the weekend. I'm thinking along those lines and will size it up into the close to decide.

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  61. EMINI 3 MIN

    http://img401.imageshack.us/img401/1408/emini3.jpg

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  62. joed do you see another p1 - p5 up moves coming now?

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  63. Sami

    Really thats not that important, as time leads to counts and targets! What I do see is that time is not in yet for the top! It's always better to trade what is in front of you with an eye on your perception rather than the other way around! imho joed

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  64. SILVER

    http://img859.imageshack.us/img859/5192/silver1.jpg

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  65. bottom in metals locked in? nice gains last 2 days

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  66. After today, what is your outlook for next week?

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  67. The setup for next week looks great. Charts and updates are coming.

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  68. did you buy any uxvy at close ??

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  69. Added some, and will add Monday if still possible.

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  70. its appears that the large premium in april and may futures is coming in ...may is still in 20's if they come in more .. these vix instruments could still drop significantly.

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    1. There are spots later in April that they could come down, but I see them spiking first. They are on the upswing now for a few weeks imo.

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  71. So you are still 99% confident we will gain ~80% by Monday/Tuesday? Do you have a prediction as to how this run up wlil occur?

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    1. Still the same. There is a specific pattern I am looking at, and it calls for a fast move - incredibly fast.

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    2. SC, is this also accompanied by the SPX falling into your target area around 1370ish?

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    3. I'm going to review SPX this weekend. Steady slide with lower lows all week.

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  72. I have been browsing a lot of the usual boards this evening, and what I read is pretty disturbiing.

    I'm seeing endless buy the TVIX dip trades all over the place.

    Anyone who follows any of this chart stuff would know that the last line in the sand dead-stop exit would have been a touch under 14. Thus any holders SHOULD have got kicked out early Thursday.

    Instead, I read people buying at 13, 12, 10, 8, and now 7.

    This is madness.
    -
    I am one of the most bearish macro-economist/traders out there, yet if I can see that the primary trends are STILL up, then it bemuses me how you others (with more experience, and who are less biased than myself) are still looking fot TVIX to recover.

    My initial near term target remains sp'1435/40. if thats the case, VIX will be in the 12s, and TVIX will be 6, if not the low 5s.
    -

    I do sincerely wish all of you the best, I just don't know really what else to say when I see this playing out again..and again.

    As a permabear, I sit here and baring an 'event' occuring, there is nothing in the immediate term that will get TVIX back into the teens, nor the main market lower. Quite the contrary in fact as today showed.

    The Bear camp does NOT have any energy right now to knock this market lower.

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    Replies
    1. Well said. Please say more here when you see something interesting.

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  73. More cycle info here
    http://change-in-trend.blogspot.com/

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  74. What are your thoughts on gold and silver for next week ?

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