Saturday, March 10, 2012

$SPX - 2012 Crash Target 980 SPX

The market has persisted higher, and this has confirmed the presence of larger cycles involved.  Therefore, the 2012 target for SPX is lowered to 980.  The 2012 forecast is for a weaker year than the 2011 correction.  A 30% decline, or 415 SPX point decline, is indicated with measured price boxes.

Resistance for SPX going back to 2008 is in the 1395 area, and that is a reasonable estimate for the top of this rally. 


March:  Top anticipated 1395 area in roughly a week, then decline to 1326 to test the white trendline.
April:  Sharp decline to Point 1.
May:  Bounce to Point 2.    
June:  Point 3 - end of Crash #1 - support is in the SPX 1032 area.
July/August:  Bounce to point 4. 
September:  Banking crisis with Crash #2 - low for 2012 with 980 SPX target.

3day Chart

A closer look at the symmetry present and approximate levels and timelines.

Daily Chart

The lower highs for Financials were a warning in 2007, and they are warning again now with another lower high.

BAC lost approximately 60% in 2011 with SPX flat for 2011.  BAC is likely to bounce substantially higher, but is too weak to ultimately withstand the selloff outlined in SPX this year.  Unfortunately, BAC appears to be heading for crisis in 2012 perhaps around September.  There is hope that issues can be resolved in some manner with a reasonable outcome.

3day Chart


  1. Short term charts will be coming shortly to outline March movements in closer detail.

  2. Uberly bearish.
    I was about to off on a tirade, but then by pure chance:
    did anybody see that the SPX is about 22 pts away from a death cross on the monthly!? (50 & 200ma cross)
    yes, monthly is radically. but SIGNIFICANT.

  3. It is quite a bearish outlook for the year, but really the target is only a 100 lower than SPX was just last October. Looking back over the last 10 years, this would just be a deep correction.

  4. SC
    good work.I wonder will you do a work that lıke you did for silver about in december for gold/silver for a long term (at least by September)?

    1. Yes definitely, those charts are coming.

  5. Let me be very clear. This is a bearish outlook with a deep correction, but not armageddon at all.

    1. Also, it would be rather foolish to attempt to short BAC right now after that downtrend off the 2007 levels. Dangerous.

  6. I respect the work you put in but....................

    Crash again??? Lol!

    I'm still waiting for the 1326 target on monday feb 27th?!?!

    Time to buy the dips until it's not. Crash calls fight the tape.

    Made good money on AAPL this week buying the dip and sold friday.

    Market looking somewhat toppy here and a up down reversal day is due...........but until then..........bull market for 3yrs now. Corrections are not crashes.

    Now the prediction of a banking crisis?

    1. Well in the case of BAC it is a bear market since 2006. It should be clear this is a problem.

    2. There already is a banking crisis. That much is clear I believe. The Fed stops lending cheap money and they have a real problem.

      While I'm skeptical SC, waiting for a crash for a while now, I respect these charts and know we are well overdue for some kind of pullback. Your timeline might line up pretty well with the Greece situation.

  7. HI SC
    You & I are bascially in the same CAMP for NEXT week
    @ 1326 to 1300 by Friday
    BUT Im really sorry to say that 2012 WILL NOT PROVIDE anything even remoelty related to a Crash.
    And in FACT should break above 1400 by March 22nd.
    IMV, this is ONLY the TOP of wave 3 of(C)
    that leaves wave 4 & 5 of (C)
    wave 4 could be a little extneded into early JULY, with wave 5 coming very swiftly at the end of July

    AND just LIKE YR2000, the Jan 14th high was matched by the march 24th high and then the SPT 6th labor day high before giving up to more substantial losses in 2001 to 2002. WHICH also ran over to another low in March 2003.

    THE 2nd yr of nearly every decade in the 20th century was detrimental to stocks EXCEPT 1974. Eric Hadik described 2011 as the BAD year, not 2012. NOW we must look to 2013thru 2015 to make new lows.

    Theres a lot more to this story, but I cant get it all in just one paragraph.

    1. Interesting comments there Jay

      but i think SC is actually predicting a market rally to 1400 this upcoming week


  9. Was predicting 1326 on Feb 27 and now predicting 1395 next week.



  11. I think it all depends on the fact that we closed, or not, the so called "presidential cycle" in 2009.
    If so, we won't crash 2008 style for at least another 3 years, if not, 900 is a conservative target.

    1. I see this strictly as a serious and deep correction. No chance at all of a 2008 style decline this year in my work.

      Thanks for that info on the cycle, interesting timeline.

  12. SC: you say deep correction yet have the title as 2012 crash... ?? Anyways, the crash that you are referring to will happen in 2013 around march.. you're about a year off.

  13. Firstly the BDI plunges from January and we were told ignore it it means nothing, NOW China posts a trade deficit in February(the biggest in over two decades) and still we are being given every reason under the Sun except the REAL reason.

    I said it before and I say it again.....WAKE UP!