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Thursday, March 15, 2012

$SPX - Target Reached - Dip Expected Next

The next timing cycle due is March 20th, and the cycle suggests a low.  Both Monday and especially Tuesday, March 20th, look negative in the cycle analysis. 

There are supports around 1372 SPX.  After that, a final spike with a slight higher high is anticipated.

60min Chart















The plan for the week (shown in yellow) was a decent estimate.  March 13th was forecast as a positive day.  The target was reached early though the timing of highs and lows worked well.

The following chart is updated from last Sunday:


15min Chart

This chart shows the maximum possible downside in the near term to test horizontal support.  If it does come down this much that would be around $29.50 for the Silver future.

A higher high at $38.50 for the Silver future is still targeted soon afterwards.

60min Chart















Silver is following the basic pattern from the symmetry outlined on Dec 31st, 2011.  Silver is nearing support with a higher high still expected to follow to point 6.

Chart from analysis December 31st, 2011:  

http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/12/silvergold-parabolic-move-coming.html

Daily Chart

95 comments:

  1. You are saying that Silver will drop again before going to your target price? Because it is already going up (32.67$) at the moment.

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  2. Let's see how Silver shapes up over the next few days. I doubt the low is in yet, but the chart above shows the maximum drawdown.

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  3. SC, what do you think is good approx. entry point for HVU today?
    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. Ideally it could undercut the low on the 14th just slightly. Late in the day today may be interesting timing.

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    2. Hi sc
      Where do you see tvix and uvxy in th up coming week

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    3. Hard to put a number on TVIX due to that premium issue, but UVXY should have a nice pop into the $27's anyways.

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    4. That equates to HVU in the $7's. I thought your target for HVU was $9.50?

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    5. Around $7.5 looks like a first target with a decline, then $9.50 still looks good following that move.

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    6. "For HVU small pop first, but the equivalent targets would be $6.4 by/before March 20th, run to $9.50, pullback, and then $10.90 for a target this month."

      Do you still have the $10.90 target? Or has $9.50 been reduced to $7.50 and $10.90 reduced to $9.50.

      Thanks for your response and analysis.

      Delete
    7. $9.50 first, decline again, then $10.90 still the same too. Thanks.

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    8. So are you saying you expect it to pop to $7.50 Monday, then decline, but run to $9.50 by Tuesday? Then decline, then go to $10.90?

      Thanks

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    9. $7.50 Tues I what I am thinking. Then decline (perhaps a new low) and $9.50 would be later.

      Let see how things are looking on Tues and can then evaluate the next phases.

      Delete
  4. Hi SC,
    Would you call the silver pattern from Sept 20,2011 to now a nearly perfect symetrical Inverse H&S reversal pattern where we are forming the right shoulder today/next week and the neckline will be around 38 ?

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    Replies
    1. Hi Hammerman & SC,

      Could you do a favor for me.
      I am a finance student at university and I have been trying to make a model about gold/silver prices.
      If you don't mind could you share some of your ideas about your silver leasing price model etc.

      I would like to know what data which you used from where and what type of model you made etc. What kind of results you have like correlations or similar things etc.

      If you and SC and other guys who knows anything about gold/silver price modelling can help / direct me I really appreciate you.

      Thanks so much.
      RB

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    2. Yes agree, I would call this an inverse H&S. I am anticipating a move back up to test the neckline around $38 (once the R shoulder is complete), but that is all. No follow through from there.

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    3. I'll see what I can do RB.

      My model on Silver is the result of using several different price patterns, and geometry.

      Delete
    4. Hi SC,

      First of all thank you so much.
      You are so polite SC.

      If you can simplify it as I can understand then maybe I can write it up like a study which is the simple version of your approach.

      if also Hammerman can help about his leasing model it could be nice to form a model as a study.

      Thanks a lot.
      RB

      Delete
    5. Hi RB,
      SC is the expert - I'm just an engineer that loves playing with numbers. I'm happy to offer my calculation on the silver lease rates "for what they are worth" since I am fast running out of endzone (think i'm at $9). I have method #2 which I did not mention and is not time related, that one predicts the next drop to $22 and is mega simple. How accurate they would be going forward is anybody's guess and my guess is that this was just an exercise for the fun of it and it may be worthless.
      As for gold, it does not work as i found out on my return home on Feb 28. Lease rate calcs told me that it was OK to take a nap for gold - no drop in the near future - never saw that one coming.
      Anyway, i'll try to cobble something together this weekend - may need to e-mail as numbers on a blog do not post well.

      Delete
  5. SC,

    I have been reading your posts regularly and am quite impressed by your bullish undertone for Gold.

    If you could please let us know as you when do you expect your target of 2000+ in Gold to be achieved?

    Thanks,

    Vineet.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We need to see Gold solidify first, of course, but we can see that level in April imo.

      Delete
  6. RIM could be a good buy guys....

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  7. Hi SC and Hammerman,

    Please share your thoughts and direct me about price modelling with your knowledge.

    You can send anything through;
    remzi.basar at g m a i l dot c o m

    Thanks in advance.
    RB

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  8. SC, would you be a buyer of HVU this afternoon?

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    Replies
    1. It looks promising for Mon/Tues.

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  9. Do you still see SLV having a bigger dip today or Monday or would now be a good entry in your opinion?

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  10. I want to see how Silver trades Mon/Tues. Hovering today.

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    Replies
    1. It'll be helpful to see how it settles Monday. A dip still may be the most likely.

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  11. Unusual to see new highs (SPX) on Opex. Usually produces a sell off for few days after.

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  12. VIX under 14! Back below lower Bollinger

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  13. Bought HVU at $6.62. Contra at stockhouse posted something very interesting in regards to HVU.

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  14. SC do you think spx topped short term?

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    Replies
    1. Let's see how it looks in the morning. I've been thinking late Fri or first thing Monday.

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  15. SC,Do you think the SPX after 23th will be big drop,and move down until in Apr.? if I wrong,could you let me know what do you think?

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    Replies
    1. That is pretty close to my plan. Dip into the 20th, then a bounce that may be powerful but does not last.

      This should be an interesting week. I'll have some important updates coming.

      Delete
  16. No matter how I look at it.. I think we get to 1425 spx.

    Maybe the DIP first and the higher high he speaks of goes to 1425 before we turn....

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  17. SPX, Gold, Silver, DX, US, C,
    Crude, Currency pairs, Sugar
    Last Post

    http://markethighsandlows.wordpress.com

    ReplyDelete
  18. Thank you for sharing SC! This is truly some good work you are doing here. Lets see what Mon/Tue brings for silver.

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  19. How long have people been calling a top in the market? 3 months? 4 months? I have warned before and this is ridiculous. As I have said before, the more people call a top, the more I think it will go higher. I know the market is completely and totally oversold, but as long as you guys keep saying its topped, I'm bullish :).

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    Replies
    1. LOL, I meant completely and totally OVERBOUGHT of course.

      Delete
  20. HI Chris
    You will be right, im sure about a higher high
    BUT SC is right about a DIP & pivot low on the 20th- I dont know how he derives his cycle work, but It matches other data that ive published elsewhere. AS far as OVERBOT- thats an UNDERSTATEMENT , but it can get even more so before its ends, and that should occur later this week.
    I can tell you that the next 30days are probably going to get WILD & volitile - so traders ENJOY it. THE QUIET time is OVER for a bit thru Mid April. Jaywiz
    Yeh I know - GO AHEAD AND MOCK ME- I will have the last laugh
    or should say I will get to keep the last $$ -[gg]

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Jay, what happen to 1330 on Friday (or was it the previous Friday)? Do we just move it (again) to the end of this week ? Do we bears stay on alert? or assume our favorite position(s) ? I don't know how you do it, Jay, the EKGs didn't seem to work lately. Time for you to get a new one out. You know, just like the time after you missed the turn in early October last year, voila, you came up with a new & improved EKG. Unfortunately, that one doesn't seem to work too well either lately. Trade it in, Jay.

      Delete
    2. HI CBEAR2

      GO TO the BLOG TODAY
      I wish I could play a MUSIC FILE with the EKG for 3/20 -- TADA!! -- will have to do.

      YES< ITS NOT PERFECT
      DO YOU HAVE SOMETHING BETTER ??

      VPN members GET a LOT more than the EKG
      they also get that LIST of data on the right side
      of the main page.or as shown at the top of teh page- enlarge your screen to se it better.

      POWER DATA - AMAZING graph- we get to see WHOLE week in advance

      Impact stream- SHOWED the MARCh 6th DIP, on MARCh 5th

      Dynamic index- SHOWED the MKT strengths and weaknesses DAYS AHEAD

      FLUX -- ditto above

      EKG, may NOT show EXACT price change- ITS A NATURAL PHENOMENA -- I DONT MAKE IT up in the kitchen sink-

      IT is REALLY GREAT at depicting INTRADAY TURNS & activity ONE DAY AHEAD

      WE take those graphs & indexes and add a bit of tech data

      right now the ARMS data SHOWS the MKT GROSSLY OVERBOT using a special XLS program to take the raw data and turn it into a USABLE INDEX
      ARMS 5
      TRIN 5
      TRIn 10

      Then we match up the TURNS on the EKG with intraday cycles to see the HIGHS & LOWS of teh day- using the BAR & ED CYCLES-- AMAZING tech tools

      ALL IN ALL IT gives a us a PICTURE of
      WHATS NEXT

      what happened to 1330
      coming soon to a neighborhood near you

      the BLOG has a publihed graph showing the ELIPSE of SUPPORT in the COMING decline on MONDAY/ Tuesday - 1340 to 1370 area- IT MAY NOT MAKE IT TO 1330 this week,
      but its not 1440 like MOST pundits are professing for an IMMEDIATE ASSAULT.

      AND THE other graphs do show a VERY POWERFUL REBOUND OFF THAT LOW on the 19-20th, and yes 1440 is very possible by weeks end


      THANKS FOR GIVING ME THE OPP to express MY VIEWS
      and explain somewhat the SCIENTIFIC discoveries that I have been using.

      Jaywiz

      Delete
  21. Apple making announcement at 6:00a.m.EST Monday, regarding their huge cash hoard. Dividend or buyback? Could it be a market mover?

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  22. The Elliot Wave gurus seem to feel we are about to embark on a 5 of [3] with no pullback.The target is 1325/26. If the AAPL news is somehow negative or other Euro news dwarfs it, we could drop down to that pivot low; otherwise we may have a gap and run.

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    Replies
    1. Correction: Target 1425/26

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    2. Wasn't point 6 on silver already been reached in late feb at 37/oz?

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    3. Point 4 did reach the price target with an overshoot of the white line. Point 5 is the low coming next, and then point 6 is the final target. Point 6 should be a slightly higher high.

      Delete
  23. Hi SC,
    Gold, Silver, USD, Euro all down together today - a little odd.

    Looking at charts this weekend. I was thinking that if symmetry around Dec 28 stays exact on a time basis for gold and silver, they would bottom around April 3rd (which is also in my cycle low area). I'm having trouble seeing the 38 silver before that bottom unless time becomes greatly compressed (which is possible).

    I've kind of been expecting to see the dollar take-off into month end which should send PM's lower.

    Ant thoughts on this after a nice long weekend off ?

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    Replies
    1. Interesting, that timing sounds about right. Let me take a closer look at the timing aspect. Thanks.

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    2. I was looking at the time aspect again for SILVER only and if we say the Oct 4-19 hump is symmetrical to the Mar 5-13 hump (in relation to the Dec 28 center), then the March hump time is 7 days and Oct hump time is 12days and 7/12 =.59 ratio for time.
      If you take the price high to low of each hump, 33.05-28.44=4.61, and 34.44-31.62=2.82, then 2.82/4.61=.61 ratio on price.
      Pretty close .58 to .61.

      Now if we use those ratios forward for "both" time and price,
      with the Oct period as a baseline,
      then :
      Oct4 low 28.38=Mar 13 low 31.66
      Sept 26 high 33.54 = Mar19 high of 33.54-28.38=5.1, 5.1*.61=3.11, 3.11+31.66=34.7 (high calc for today).
      Sept 25 low 26.05 = March 20 low of 33.54-26.05=7.49, 7.49*.61=4.56, 34.7-4.56 = 30.14 (calc low for tomorrow)
      Sept 20 high 40.67= Mar 21 high of
      40.67-26.05 = 14.62, 14.62*.61= 8.92, and 8.92+30.14 = 39.0 (calc hi for Wednesday).

      So in summary, if both time and price is ratio'd at .58-.61 then using Sept 20 to Oct 19th as a symmetrical baseline, today silver would go to 34.7 max,
      tomorrow drop to 30.14, and Wednesday head to 39 max.
      *it kills my cycles somewhat but it meshes with your projections. If silver drops below 31 tomorrow that would be way cool !

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    3. Let me look into this, thanks.

      Delete
  24. Hammer, in december 2011 metals bottomed and rallied together with the dollar for almost 2 weeks.

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    Replies
    1. Thanks, very true.
      The Euro however dropped hard during those 2 weeks. Today euro USD gold silver are all down then up together so far. Other currencies must be overcompensating. Just odd.

      Delete
    2. Obviously that did not hold, USD tanking, Euro up alot. That makes sense.

      Delete
  25. Hi Hammerman,

    I could not see your reply so far.
    You can send your model's details and thoughts through;
    remzi.basar at g m a i l dot c o m

    Thanks in advance, I will be appreciated.
    RB

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Replied just below your March 16 8:23AM thread above. I'll work something up in next day or so.

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    2. Thank you so much.
      I look forward to see your work.

      Thanks.
      RB

      Delete
  26. Replies
    1. We can see that starting today, tomorrow is by far the weaker looking day.

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  27. UVXY... is this a buy yet??

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  28. Here's to hoping that it is significantly weaker....I have HVU at $6.63. Hoping for $8 - $9 by tomorrows close. Think I get it SC?

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    Replies
    1. Watch around the $7.50 area next.

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    2. I'd be ok with $7.50! You think tomorrow? Really depends on how much it drops today though

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    3. I doubt there is much downside.

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    4. well, 7% down today, I have to think that is quite significant....

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    5. I suggested on Fri that ideally it could do this.

      SCMar 16, 2012 06:56 AM
      Ideally it could undercut the low on the 14th just slightly. Late in the day today may be interesting timing.

      Delete
    6. Yup, you did. Definitely. I added more at $5.96.

      Delete
  29. NO market weakness SC?

    no weakness from december.... at 1241 / 1260....

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  30. f'me, 9% now....HVU is down.

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  31. SC,
    If you get a chance, read my 9:12AM post above to your 6:56 AM note. Didn't know if you would see it since it posted high up.

    ReplyDelete
  32. JAYWIZ

    GO TROLL SOMEWHERE ELSE................YOUR A JOKE! LIKE NO ONE KNOWS WHAT YOU ARE DOING! WE COULD CARE LESS WHAT YOU THINK! GET LOST I HAD SEEN ENOUGH OF YOUR VPN CRAP.....CBEAR IS CORRECT, YOUR A JOKE!!

    ReplyDelete
  33. Replies
    1. Today isn't the 20th, but that said 1372 looks like a pipe dream for the cycle low.

      Delete
  34. Jaywizzzzzzzzzzzzz

    I agree! You sure don't get the drift! You should have after the last go around! BUT your type never does! You have to promote to stay alive cuz you can't trade and your VPN and EKG is a joke! Like they said "GO TROLL SOMEWHERE ELSE".............james

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  35. UVXY PLUNGE...... 22... SPLIT AT 34... -35% IN 2 WEEKS.

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    Replies
    1. crazy isn't it? I'm just hoping to get a return on my HVU I bought at $6.63 Friday. I'll be happy with a return of any kind on it now.

      Delete
  36. The VIX is actually up today. The VIX futures down so much indicate extreme complacency in this market imo.

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  37. Unfortunately Cash VIX doesn't help HVU, UVXY, TVIX, etc etc etc. Market is very strong today, with no sign of weakness. That can change in an instant, but just not looking likely. Europe was down most of the night until America opened, so this strength is incredible and makes me wonder if its simply insane to try and fight it....Although I am really just looking for a short pop.......please $7.50, please!!!!

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  38. NASDAQ-100 STOCK INDEX (MINI) - CHICAGO MERCANTILE EXCHANGE Code-209742
    FUTURES ONLY POSITIONS AS OF 03/13/12 |
    --------------------------------------------------------------| NONREPORTABLE
    NON-COMMERCIAL | COMMERCIAL | TOTAL | POSITIONS
    --------------------------|-----------------|-----------------|-----------------
    LONG | SHORT |SPREADS | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT | LONG | SHORT
    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    (NASDAQ 100 STOCK INDEX X $20) OPEN INTEREST: 587,569
    COMMITMENTS
    172,792 34,005 13,069 370,966 508,709 556,827 555,783 30,742 31,786 ... Boo ya id say time to short this ma... I warned of the skew on euro when it was at 1.26 or what not before it took off to 1.34.. well now its time to short the qqqs

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    Replies
    1. Do you have a link to where this information is Sami? Also, do you have the same information for the S&P? Thanks

      Delete
    2. Nevermind, found it:
      http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmesf.htm

      Interesting that for the S&P, there are more commercial short than there are commercial long, but its quite close. The feeling must be this can go either way.

      Delete
  39. Are you still expecting $7.50 for HVU tomorrow?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. There may be limited downside to $5.45 first, but a move to $7.50, and then $9.15 is the next spot to watch.

      I'm not sure how it opens, but tomorrow looks weak for the markets, and so does the end of this week.

      Delete
  40. UVXY reverse split was a BAD mistake IMO. I have hardly ever seen a reverse split that didn't result in lower prices.

    On the flip side, TVIX holding up very well indeed. Did CS call the halt last months out of necessity or have they made a very smart move?

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  41. We're reaching a point to where it's probably close enough...

    http://tinyurl.com/6ujb3ve

    http://tinyurl.com/6psvyrs

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. your killing me.
      luckily, I have tools to keep me from being foolish.
      close. very close.

      http://practicalt.blogspot.com/2012/02/denied.html

      Delete
    2. food for thought.

      http://i41.tinypic.com/33uyef5.png

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    3. Great minds think alike ;-)

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  42. Commercials have increased short dollar positions even more past week, small and large specs are net long dollar.

    SP500 COT indicates that we are at the turning point, traders are undecided (50/50) which way we go... :

    http://snalaska.net/cot/current/charts/SP.png

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  43. TZA

    http://img694.imageshack.us/img694/3582/tzac.jpg

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  44. Hammerman thank you so much.
    I look forward to see your work.

    Appreciated.
    RB

    ReplyDelete