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Sunday, March 11, 2012

$SPX - Approach to the Summit

The market should dip Monday, but as pointed out in the last short term update, March 13th looks positive in the cycle analysis.  SPX should generally grind higher this week according to my cycle work.

Around March 16th or 19th may be most likely for the summit to be reached.  March 20th, and the majority of that week looks very negative, therefore, the decline is expected to commence around that time with the 1326 area at least to be tested next.   

15min Chart

97 comments:

  1. Hi SC

    Silver will be topping and crashing when spx topped? I mean can we say there is true correlation between spx and silver with the same direction or something else?

    I would like to know your expectation; silver can we bought from these levels 34-34,40 (spot) or you expect lower prices before rally into 38 levels?

    Apprciated, thanks.
    RB

    ReplyDelete
  2. There is correlation between SPX and Silver. They don't necessarily move exactly in tune and obviously % can be quite different.

    Yes, I do expect the correlation to continue. Silver looks attractive at these levels for a push higher this week.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi SC

    looks like a good exit on the 13 according to your cycle work. Would you consider selling your UVXY tomorrow then? or just add to it cause you looking for bigger fish.

    what may be a target you may be looking for with UVXY tomorrow? and HVU?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I am planning to sell it around $30 or so, then pick it up again lower maybe $24 area. However, yes, my focus is shifting to larger "fish".

      Let my look at the levels on the other one. Thanks.

      Delete
  4. It's possible SPX could come down lower than shown, 1358 or so.

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  5. $33.40 for silver is a great opportunity

    ReplyDelete
  6. http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/716/silverbl.jpg/

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  7. SC,


    Wasn't Silver suposed to rise this week? It's already down 0.60$.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I agree with SC, I like Silver this week. I picked up HZU with Silver at $32.95. Starting to show strength now.

      Delete
    2. Just a minor dip, still expecting a strong week for Silver overall.

      Delete
    3. It's hard to see Silver going up to 38$ with all that is happening now unless the FOMC meeting tomorrow is bullish for metals.

      Delete
  8. SC, where do you see HVU for an entry I assume on the 13th or so....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. For UVXY I'm looking for $24 or so by/before March 20th. Then a run to $36, decent pullback, and a move to around $41 later this month. S&P should test that 1326 area at that time.

      So let me look at the other and see what those levels equate to.

      Delete
    2. SC, do you think HVU will hit $11 or $12 again this month?

      Delete
    3. For HVU small pop first, but the equivalent targets would be $6.4 by/before March 20th, run to $9.50, pullback, and then $10.90 for a target this month.

      Delete
    4. Chester, not likely $12, but I am targeting around that $11 area this month.

      I have VIX charts coming with targets for 2012.

      Delete
  9. Looks like silver/gold may be heading down from here, my weekly/daily indicators are already dropping into the sell zone.. Dollar has aligned itself for another push higher.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Hi SC

    UVXY currently at 27ish, unless we drop hard tomorrow, dont really see it go to 30 ish. Anyways, anything can happen.

    But question here is what if we dont get to 30 ish, would you be keeping your UVXY or just let go tomorrow and re-enter around 24 ish? OR hold it cause it aint dropping...


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. At this level I will just hold it. I still think it'll pop moderately soon (by/before the 15th) and I'll look to reposition. It can move differently than SPX and may not necessarily line up with timing for SPX.

      Delete
  11. Hello SC Thanks for all update's,I am layering in a leveraged bearish bet, Buying VXX sept 24 calls,look for 50 sometime this year or in 6 month's Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you Mike, all the best.

      Delete
    2. SC, Do you think there is a possibility that you can be 100% wrong about all of this? i.e. your timing is way off, by a few months for example?

      We have seen 0 confirmations so far to your "CRASH" theory.

      Delete
    3. It's not just my cycle, and symmetry theory. The market is confirming with the way the DAX, NDX, Financials are acting. It also fits with my large Silver pattern analysis. The pieces all fit from my point of view.

      The last time cycles also worked well with the market selling off into the 7th, and now rising into the 13th.

      Delete
    4. non-confirmations and divergences can go on for a long time. still does not answer my question though.

      so you think you can not be wrong about this scenario?

      Delete
  12. ZigZag,

    if you are still around please share your thoughts

    ty!

    ReplyDelete
  13. Hi SC

    bank stress testing interesting...if current bank can survive that...we may not crash...what your thought?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The disclosures will be worth a read, but I don't think the test will have any bearing on what the markets will do.

      Delete
  14. SC
    My TRIN calculator issued a SELL yesterday & again TODAY
    MY daily market EKG was near 90% perfect today and shows a SELL OFF tomrrow.
    Jaywiz index Friday was 1.38-- too high for a sell off
    but
    today is at .70, not a screaming sell, but it will do
    THE DYNAMIC index pumped up a mid day high at 1:30today
    but drops off right after-
    tomorrow's not avail yet.
    WED, however SHOULD reverse any sell off tomrrow
    BUT Thsday & friday could set the spx back to 1330

    Thats where wave iv of 3(C) meets the 4th wave low of the previous degree

    There is a HUGE fibo & high energy CLUSTER on MARCh 22nd where spx could break out to 1400.

    THEN the END OF THE MONTH could be a very bearish ending
    More later
    Jay

    ReplyDelete
  15. What is the bottom for Silver?

    ReplyDelete
  16. Is it just me or are markets now polarized by data and FOMC announcements and ignorant of what is really important to market value?
    It seems that every other day the market is looking for this figure or numbers on this and stats on that.
    I just can't remember investors ever being this heavily addicted to this much insignificant jargon.
    In the mean time matters that really are significant seem to get swept aside until investors have no alternative but to take notice.
    Is it engineering by the finacial media or am I just dilussional?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I can.
      you may not remember it, depending on your age.
      Irrational Exuberance and Alanspeak.
      it didn't end well.

      http://allisonkilkenny.com/wordpress/wp-content/uploads/2009/02/alan-greenspan1.jpg

      Delete
  17. Hi SC

    Looks like no drop in sight. Any new outlook in your cycle work for today?

    UVXY going to the toilet soon, you still holding it right?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. All I know is that this is getting positively scarey!

      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p17747114758

      How much damage is this alone going to do when it comes crashing back to earth?
      Oh that's right it deserves a market cap greater than the GDP of the majority of countries on the planet....NOT!

      Delete
    2. REMEMBER....they're only as good as their next product!

      Delete
  18. Bears are in deep fertilizers if Jaywiz is expecting a decline. Sorry SC, you've got bad company.

    ReplyDelete
  19. SC,

    What the hell is happening in market? they are pumping money like no end...unbelievable.

    Is this a indication that after Ben speech we will have big selloff and this market rally is a sucker rally?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Need to see that 1395 level first.

      Delete
  20. SILVER

    http://img703.imageshack.us/img703/3356/silvere.jpg

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Joed,

      What this chart says? can you please explain?

      Thanks

      Delete
    2. Stock

      Just pointing out where support has held and is with time........as I showed last chart, which has held and tested! joed

      Delete
  21. SPX pushed up into the 13th as per the timing cycles and cycle analysis.

    The above chart and cycles are working perfectly.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi SC

      ah, I thought the 13th is the low on that chart above...as in we get a dump into the 13th on that chart...

      we got a push into the 13th so far...

      Am I missing something on your chart...should we be considering the reverse of your chart now?



      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. No, it shows the low yesterday, and a sharp rise today. I am expecting the chart to continue to play out as shown.

      Delete
  22. SC do you see a dip tommorow?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A little more up to 1387 or so, then dip into the 15th around 1272 SPX. Then the final push to 1395. I'm short, and will max shorts around 1395 for the largest decline since 2008.

      Delete
  23. Finch upgraded Greece to B- from restricted default level....LOL this is another protein shake for market, watch Euro surge and along with market....

    ReplyDelete
  24. AAPL approaching my $578 target:

    http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/02/aapl-parabola-update-correcting-but-not.html

    ReplyDelete
  25. EVERYONE is bullish.

    'No Choice But to Own Stocks': Black Swan's Taleb'

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Incredible setup for the bears.

      Delete
    2. Hi SC,

      What about Silver?
      If SPX will crash then should not be silver going down even worse crash?
      i mean silver Will be crashing when spx crashes. Âm i right?

      I just need to know if someone who lives overseas, can only invest / buy spot gold, spot silver and spot USD money. What could advise that person, to buy which of them or just waiting for the Good entry point?

      Thanks SC, greatly apprciated.
      RB

      Delete
    3. SC, Silver is not moving higher as you had thought for its final push....still think it will this week?

      Delete
    4. Silver and Gold are both fine short term to $38 and $2,050 or so. After that, I would stick with USD.

      Delete
  26. Silver is still building the base as mentioned in the last Silver update. It'll launch higher soon along with Gold imo.

    ReplyDelete
  27. SC what do you think would be the catalyst for such a huge decline considering how much money the europeans and the fed are pumping into the markets currently?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Basically everyone who would buy has already bought. The shorts have beeen squeezed. So we have a vacuum under the market. Last week we saw the market erase a month of gains in a day. This is what happens when there are no buyers. That was a warning that larger moves are coming.

      Greece will likely be the focus next week.

      Delete
    2. everyones getting sucked in now
      goin to the moon {GG}
      YUH, Right !!
      that one/ two day sell off is almost ready to unload
      Jay
      1401 or bust tomrrow AM

      Delete
  28. hy Sc, now Tvix - 0,71 % UVXY -4,81% wHAT DO YOU THINK ABOUT UNDERPERFORMING UVXY ? THANKS

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What it shows is strong demand for TVIX and UVXY. TVIX cannot issue more units so it trades at the premium, UVXY is in line with the VIX futures. UVXY has been outperforming when the market drops too. So it works both ways.

      What will be interesting is to see how TVIX acts when we see a sizable drop in the market...

      Delete
  29. Markets on fire. Silver struggling a bit though.

    ReplyDelete
  30. could top out at 1401 tomrrow
    rally came without a rest stop
    144 tr day cycle tomrrow
    67 also - Dec6 hi
    134 too - Aug31 hi
    lots of Positive enrgy runs out tonight
    15th & 16th could get uggly for bulls
    Jay

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. BEARS GET READY.... (to assume the position). You're hilarious Jay. Time to change your meds?

      Delete
  31. SC, the high is 1393.41, almost your 1395 target, is that it or there is or more down up, if so, is it still 1395 or higher?

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  32. Gold and Silver...big dumping going on right now...

    what next?

    Gold may hold at 1650 and silver could be 31 to 32

    Just my thought

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  33. There should be one more dip to around 1372 before the final high. 1398 is my estimate.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What are your thoughts on gold and silver ?
      The picture is ugly and what I do not understand that stock markets are positive contrary to precious metals markets...
      Thanks in advance

      Delete
  34. Thanks, SC. Almost in panic mode now, tough to be a bear.

    ReplyDelete
  35. SC, I think today S & P and PM are disconnected....

    what do you say?

    ReplyDelete
  36. I like both Gold and Silver. Particularly Gold is looking attractive at this level. I'm going to buy some Gold soon.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. $2,050 Gold is achievable this month.

      Delete
    2. 13 days starting from today, 30$ up every day.

      are you for real? perhaps we need to stop dropping first?

      Delete
  37. SC do you see this going anything over 1410?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, it should now drop into the 15th around that 1372 area then a slight higher high. Only a few points. According to my big plan that is anticipated to be the high for 2012. Next test 1326.

      Delete
  38. Hi SC

    what you seeing that can cause us to drop in the near term? this bull train is in full force mode. Right now it is attracting a lot of cash owner to jump on board. Like grand pa/ma, who has been hibernating for years.

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Greece likely to be back in the news next week.

      Delete
    2. But Greece just got upgraded lol...

      any other problem you see in near term?



      Thanks!

      Delete
    3. Several banks failed the stress tests. Mkt should drop now into the 15th.

      Delete
  39. Hi,

    Do you have any analysis covering 2013 thru 2014? Do you expect a retest of 666 on the S&P within the next 2-3 years??

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I do have the analysis according to my big picture pattern, but have not shown that yet on the site.

      No, I do expect 980 SPX to hold, and I'll be bullish at that point. One of the few bulls...

      Delete
    2. Thanks. I've been trying to get a view on where 'objective' folks think the market is heading until around 2014-2015. I ignore perma-bulls and perma-bears. The range seems to be between S&P of 400-800. Some of the figures are:- 400 (Russell Napier), 500 (Charles Nenner and Felix Zulauf), 700 (Andre Gratian) and several others. I have no idea what to expect. The two 'extra' things which concern me for the next couple of years are the "Kondratieff Winter" and the end to the 120-year cycle, and a major war (possibly Iran & Israel and their allies). I just can't see a major bull run from here without some kind of financial cleansing. I do think sovereign debts are important and the US debt situation is abysmal - it's gone parabolic since the mid 90's. (Jim Sinclair even thinks fiat currencies will be wiped out by 2015!)

      Your low of 980 could well be proven correct..... (In any event, a lot lower than where we are today!). I am definitely bullish for the long term and have a substantial amount of cash to invest - I want to invest in income funds with capital appreciation as a secondary objective. I feel sure that in 20 years, the markets will be substantially higher and am just trying to get a feel for a reasonable time to get in. My personal view is that we'll get to around S&P 700. (That's purely based on an unscientific average on 'objective' views expressed in many blogs, and "expert" views etc.)

      Delete
    3. "I just can't see a major bull run from here without some kind of financial cleansing."

      I agree completely. The low last Oct 2011 was not a true capitulation. We need to see capitulation for a proper bull market to form. 980 is the level to watch in my opinion.

      The analysis is done, but I have not shown what my patterns look like after that 980 because I prefer to show the charts near the turning points. However, I do realize for planning purposes it is helpful to have understanding well beforehand. I see 980 as a mjor turning point.... I'll be a buyer there.

      Delete
  40. Nice call SC. We hit over 1396 today within a hair's breadth of your target.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thanks, mkt hit that first high today, should dip now into the 15th around the 1372 level.

      There should still be a slightly higher high late this week or early next week.

      Delete
    2. There is more bank pass than fail...if they can write off Greece default as nothing, do you not think they can write off the few banks that failed (approximately 4 out of 19 bank failed, the rest passed, that is pretty bullish, you dont think so, those 4 bank aint all the biggest bank either)?

      from current level of 1390 ish to 1370 ish is about 20 points down from current level, you really think a few banks fail some test (remember it didnt happen in real life yet) will cause that much of a drop?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    3. I think the market decides who passes and fails not some ratings agency or other organization. The only test that really matters is what the market thinks.

      Delete
    4. SC I enjoy your analysis and encourage you to keep doing what you're doing, but I have to say when it comes to market movements you're pretty naive in its self-guiding nature. This market is extremely manipulated by the big boys and has no invisible hand guiding it.

      Delete
  41. Silver will probably get raided again tomorrow with Bernanke's speech. I'll wait to see what happens tomorrow with the POS.

    ReplyDelete
  42. SC
    When will silver be $38? In the past you said thet ıt would be Mid March.May $38 come about 21-23 March?
    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, I expect that $38-39 level soon in March.

      Delete
  43. Gold sold of heavily once again. Quite frankly when I look at the longer term chart of gold all I see from the August high is a series of lower lows and lower highs and price rolling over from a lower high yet again.
    Is gold sending a deflationary warning signal here?
    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p57537137963

    ReplyDelete
  44. check out chart 03
    it's in a slump alright.

    http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/Favorites.CServlet?obj=ID4511625

    ReplyDelete
  45. SC what does todays price action do to your timing as far as dates?

    Does the target move higher since we reached your peak today.

    Please advice.

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  46. How about before calling for crazy numbers like 980 on the S&P...you at first just try to get the timing on a return to even 1340...and then maybe 1300 first ?

    ReplyDelete
  47. Tomorrow my cycles show weakness to 1370 followed by rally to 1405 then friday we reverse to 1341 then Monday we trade to 1303 followed by earthquake in california then market rally on Tuesday to 1507 the crash to 980 end of next week... then cubs win world series. Do I sound like somebody???

    ReplyDelete
  48. MICK

    Your MOCKING THE CUBS!!!!!! THAT AIN'T RIGHT! joed

    ReplyDelete