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Monday, March 19, 2012

SPY - Negative Time Cycle Due

A negative time cycle is due on March 20th.  The cycle analysis is also quite negative on the 20th, somewhat positive on the 21st, and then negative into the end of the week. 

The equal time and price boxes show a measured move is in place.  Interestingly, the time span of the box is the same as the negative time cycle (red).  As well, there are several resistances in terms of geometry.

Daily Chart

78 comments:

  1. Hi SC,

    What do you expect for gold and especially Silver?
    Look forward to see your new silver analysis.
    Please don't us wait to much to read your PM comments.

    Thanks in advance.
    RB

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have charts coming for Silver.

      Delete
  2. Hi SC,

    Could you advise what your short term targets for HVU are? Do you still expect to see $7.50 today?

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 7.50 today is a massive move 6.50 maybe

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    2. dont think we making that 7.5 today, we could barely pass 6$, now drop back down to the 5 ish

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    3. today suppose to be down day...and HVU, UVXY is in red right now lol...what happened

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    4. Yeah, VIX and VIX futures are up, but HVU is down...

      Delete
  3. HVU may be the wrong way to play this any down days for the SPX. I'm slowly coming to terms with that.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It'll have it's day soon. Traders don't seem to believe in this selling today. Complacency is high.

      Delete
  4. A start on the downside. The pace should pick up.

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  5. I had a short on Silver from a few days ago, just took profit. I'm going to wait and see how it acts here.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SC,

      Does this imply that you have doubts abt ur targets in Gold @ $2000+ and Silver @ $38+ or an extension in the time period for achievement of the above targets.

      Delete
    2. I still see that happening. Just waiting for them to settle and plan to get aggressive.

      Delete
  6. This news will provide big blow to Precious metals....

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/house-gop-to-unveil-election-year-budget-blueprint-cutting-beyond-obama-plan/2012/03/20/gIQAlefgOS_story.html?wpisrc=al_comboPNE_b

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. its no longer news... besides, debt issues exist on both sides of the pond.

      Delete
  7. FOR THE FARMERS.........

    http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/1074/beansi.jpg

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Joed

      Looking at your graph, it looks like we should go higher from here still to the end of the month, or am I missing something...


      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. InvestBB

      Yes........I have a choppy topping patern to my cycle! Remember this is Soybeans not to confuse anyone! joed

      Delete
  8. Hi SC

    are you still in your UVXY and TVIX that you bought days ago?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, I sold UVXY over $26 as mentioned previously. Looking to pick it back up soon.

      Delete
  9. That is strange SC. Don't you see tomorrow being mildly positive? Wouldn't tomorrow be a better entry?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I debated that, but it is hard to say about tomorrow. Could go either way and the price looks attractive. If it comes down a little more I'm ok with that.

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    2. What are you expecting for the rest of the week?

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    3. I'm expecting a big move on this to $33-34 soon. I think there is a downside surprise coming. Complacency is extreme. Tomorrow could be mixed but I see little downside on this position. This week looks quite negative into the Fri 23rd or Mon 26st in my cycle analysis.

      For the other $8.90 to $9.15 is the spot to watch.

      Delete
    4. Thanks SC.

      How confident are you on this prediction relative to others, e.g. today's $7.50? I mean no disrespect and understand your TA is not an exact science. I appreciate your opinion and analysis. I just shouldn't be trading an etf that I don't completely understand. I went from a profit to a loss with this and now I just wanna minimize losses.

      Thanks.

      Delete
    5. I'm confident, and bought a lot today. It did come down today, and that is ok. I actually thought it could do that (even though I was expecting markets to drop), and my analysis is the same. I still expect a big move this week.

      SCMar 19, 2012 06:10 PM
      There may be limited downside to $5.45 first, but a move to $7.50, and then $9.15 is the next spot to watch.

      I'm not sure how it opens, but tomorrow looks weak for the markets, and so does the end of this week.

      Delete
    6. For sure always have to be defensive first and then offensive when the time is right. This is a great setup imo.

      Delete
    7. Thanks SC for your quick response. Much appreciated.

      Delete
    8. Do you still expect the rest of the week to be positive? $7.50 and then $9.15?

      Delete
    9. Yes, watch this, it is about to spike up.

      Delete
  10. SC,

    What do you think of Silver? is it bottom today? or still room for low price.

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm going to do some review and give Silver a little more time to develop.

      Delete
  11. is playing UVXY the same as playing HVU on the TSX ?? they seem very well correlated on the charts

    ReplyDelete
  12. 5.40 and dropping.....I'm thinking of getting in but after losing 10% on the HSD trade I can't stomach another 10% loss if HVU drops tomorrow....

    Hmmmmm decesions to make

    ReplyDelete
  13. how it vix going up but the vix bull etfs are tanking?

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  14. SC, The timing and momentum for immediate continuation of the parabola in metals have long expired IMO. Instead we are in the process of finding a bottom and starting another daily cycle.

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  15. the JAYWIZ daily EKG was SPOT on for both days this week, agreeing with the POWERDATA which shows the mkt a week in advance.

    Tommorrow shows potential for a good start till maybe 11am but waning the rest of the day except for one other bright spot at 3:21pm

    Tech internals are GROSSLY OVERBOT -STRONG SELL SIGNALS on the IBO TRIN, 5 day arms- 5 day trin & 10 day trin PLUS the OPEN 10 trin & 5 SMA, have been issued by the calcluations, thus
    its only a short time now before that plays out on stock prices.

    the last sell signal that came close to this one was on JULY 26th.

    ED cycle indicted a HIGh at 2pm on MONDAY, and sure enuf it was right there at 1414.

    THE PROOF is at the blog for everyone to see
    NOTHING IS HIDDEN

    200 VPN members are well aware of the scientific resources
    and get to use them every day

    YOU can call me names or types or whatever, but the PROOF IS REAL


    YES- I miss a call occasionally- IM really human - duhh
    and YOU MAKE SURE YOU PICK up on those misses- POINT THEM OUT AND MOCK ME, but make sure ignore the correct calls.


    Jaywiz

    ReplyDelete
  16. ACTING LIKE THIS IS HIS BLOG! YOU DON'T GET IT JAY, WE DON'T CARE! WE ARE NOT ON THIS BLOG FOR YOU! STAY AT YOUR OWN BLOG .........!!!!!! IF SOMEONE WANTS TO READ IT THEY WILL! HERE'S "JAY TAKE A WIZZZZZ" AGAIN TROLLIN! SC'S BLOG IS NOT FOR YOU TO TROLL! YOU HAVE NO CLASS WHATS SO EVER AND YES WE KNOW ALL ABOUT YOUR PAID SUBSCRIPTION AND ALL THE LOSSES THE MEMBERS HAVE TAKEN! GO BACK AND READ YOUR WON CRAP! GO TROLL SOMEWHERE ELSE! WHAT DO YA THINK CBEAR SHOULD WE JOIN??????? HAHHAAHAHAH JAY HAS NO CLASS WHAT SO EVER AND WILL DO WHATEVER HE HAS TO TAKE A BUCK OUT OF YOUR POCKET! BEWARE WE HAVE ALL SEEN HIS CRAP! George

    ReplyDelete
  17. GJ

    Thanks for letting us know............it is obvious he is a troll who's ego is next to rudeness! You would think this was his blog! Why SC would put up with this makes me wonder! No other blog would put up with this type of behavior! Best, c

    ReplyDelete
  18. Cheech

    What trolls like WIZZ do is don't charge blog owners so they can come on and try to sign up their patrons! Nothing knew..........they have no class ........that's why they are trolls! As if no one here knows what WIZ is trying to do! hahahahahahah Too funny! james

    ReplyDelete
  19. TBONDS


    http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/3455/tbonds.jpg

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  20. John

    You and the others are right! Mr WIZ has been a pain on other blogs...........he just tries to promote on every site as above.....trying to bully everyone! I believe he was a car saleman and it shows! Iam surprized SC allows him to continue! We are not here for his bullying sales approach! He can go back to selling cars! I hope Sc blocks emm unless there is something we do not know! Best, Charlie

    ReplyDelete
  21. Taking a quick look at JAY's Blog I see that last week on Mon.
    March 12, he states "Bearish week ahead" and on Tues. March 13
    "Bears get ready..do you hear the vacuum cleaner". But the market had a super week last week with a 25 pt move in S&P500
    on Tuesday alone! On tyhis past Sunday Jay looks for price to drop on Mon.&Tues to 1370-1340. And Tues.pre-opening he had EKG graph showing a low at 12:30 and Neg. Energy at 1:12. But actual low occurred before 10:00 a.m. These turns are real short term, so someone waiting for a low after 12:30 would have missed the up trend.On this same EKG from Tuesday a.m. we have a glimpse of the WED opening and it shows market dropping into 10:30 at 180b. But in the above message Jay states "potential for a good start til maybe 11 am" etc. What's up?? Down to 10:30 or up to 11:00 ??
    The Elliot Wave techs have Monday's high as the end of (3) and we drop in (4) or we have one more rally to (3)at 1426-1440 and a Dow target of 13,500 Giddy up!!

    ReplyDelete
  22. Thanks SC for the great charts and analysis you provide.Do you
    have any cycles for last week in March? Historically last week
    in March has been weak,but I wonder if there might be some
    window dressing. A fund better show they have Apple!
    Good trading to all.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, I have a plan and those charts coming soon. Thanks.

      Delete
  23. klaatu

    That's the point .........you have made it well! He constantly blows smoke over the reality of his BS! Hes a car saleman and it shows...........bait and switch, that's what Wizzzz is all about! He must think everyone is stupid and can't read his crap.........although he does try to leave himself a way out of evrything to keep promoting! Maybe we can buy a toothbrush or some vitamins from him? hahahahah What a joke! charlie

    ReplyDelete
  24. Master ZigZag,
    what's your forecast?
    drop into May, then ramp into Aug High?
    or
    ramp into May, then drop into Aug?

    T. Laundry is forecasting another 3/4 months of positivism.

    my chart
    http://i44.tinypic.com/a0fosh.png

    ReplyDelete
  25. on the above SPY box chart one could draw first box differently - from the same low but to the beginning of the crash in august 2011, this would get this current box more time.

    ReplyDelete
  26. Just as I thought- You are the ones ruining this blog- NOT ME'
    Im offering sincere forecasts

    ITS YOU PEOPLE acting like children in the playground who are JUST bullying someone they dont like.

    AND THERE YOU GO AGAIN
    picking out ONE segment as OFF By a couple hours
    OOOHHH , thats terrible
    YOU are that ones KIDDING everyone else who wants to read real forecasting- NOT WHAT YOUR OFFERING

    all I see from YOU ARE questions about the market.
    LIKE NEWBIES who need some one to lead the way thru the dark.

    I WAS NOT THE ONLY ONE suggesting a lower mkt last week
    but we wont tell anything about those folks.

    IM surprised the SC allows YOUR obnoxious CYBER BULLY ATTACKS

    AS for the MKT, see the blog

    THE ELEVATOR is HEADING LOWER
    thru the end of MARCh

    Jay

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "the EKG report tomrrow should ALSO confirm the UPTREND WILL CONTINUE as does the POWERDATA

      SPX high -- HOW HIGH JAY - FRIDAY AM is my answer"

      Nice one Jay. You cover both sides of the fence. That's how you become so bloody good at forecasting the market. Whatever the market throws, you hit it bullseye.

      Delete
  27. Market doesn't like the weak Euro/strong dollar-as of now

    ReplyDelete
  28. JAY

    Your EGO just won't stop.....it won't let you stop! We are not here for you! GO BACK TO YOUR OWN BLOG..........this one isn't yours! GO AWAY! GO SELL SOMEWHERE ELSE! gj

    ReplyDelete
  29. I think everyones input should be welcomed,if you dont want to read it skip by it,no harm no foul

    ReplyDelete
  30. I've seen this pattern before, sizeable VIX spike is imminent imo.

    ReplyDelete
  31. IT WOULD APPEAR that we wont STRAY too far from the 1400 level today.

    HOWEVER,

    using the POwER data compared to the EKG, I think we can see a possible

    secondary high tomorrow JUST PRIOR to the LEI report at 10am



    IT IS MY VIEW that the Market will START a more severe decline AFTER

    the MODERATE POSITIVE NEW MOON effect at 10:37am, AKA the LEI report at 10am, on MARCh 22nd

    then

    continuing LOWER THRU the 26th for starters, which is apparent on the Power DATA, not yet
    updated for the VPN group.



    SEE above on the blog HOW the EKG rebounds at the END of the day today,

    and possibly opens higher tomrrow, before heading substantially lower
    -not available yetfor that Time period.


    Today, a short term low looks possible for 2:30 at 228bars


    SO< IM Thinking about that trade at 11am to 2;30, but it
    probably wont produce anything of large value
    more of a scalp trade.

    then
    the BIGGER move that I'm inclined to go after looks like
    TOMRROW prio to 10am- thru the 26th at close or 27th at open to 10am ,and even probably 12;30pm at 258bars- but more on that later.

    THOSE OF YOU who would WANT EXACT TIMES< PRICES, EVERYTIME< ALL THE TIME - GET A WIGI BOARD


    PRICE LEVELS, times & direction are published on the EKG
    now depicting March 19, 20 , 21st projections to part of Mar22nd


    THANKS dtg for being at least ONE ADULT in the room
    GJ - IM OFFERING forecasting - not car sales - NEVER DID THAT.
    YOU ARE one of those FORCING ME TO DEFEND my WORK
    PROMOTING ones work is NOT CAR SALES !!
    SOME OF YOU LIVE in a SHELL, or are JUST INCLINED TO BE CYBER BULLIES
    WHERE are YOUR FORECASTS ??
    CBEAR - I NEVER hedge-- ITS ONE WAY OR T'other
    If you want to RIP me apart for everything I write
    go ahead, but DONT DO IT HERE- TIS GETTING OLD!!

    IM SURE THAT SC IS GETTING BORED with this constant bashing
    and would really like to read a forecast as the one above
    Jay

    LETS NOW wait till MARCh 27th to see if the mkt reacts as projected from tomorrow on.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. where else can anyone write about what you wrote? do you let anyone write anything on your blog? duhhh... jay. YOU are the only one getting old, dude.

      Delete
  32. Market still reacting to weak EURO. Below key support at 132.00 maybe Euro crisis is back. Lot of chat about Spain in trouble.Euro etf is FXE.

    ReplyDelete
  33. VIX or VIX futures SC? big difference. What about Silver?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Both are about to move up big imo. I'm quite sure on this.

      Silver is a little tricky here. I'm reluctant to do much with it short term until I see it settle further, and see a solid setup. Ultimately there is good upside, but it could come down lower first.

      Delete
    2. When are you expecting this? Hours? Days?

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    3. Within days, this week in any case.

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    4. Remember though $7.50 is the first spot to watch. It could slump from there, and then rise later. So we want to see how it acts at that level, and use some caution there.

      Delete
    5. At this point I would be happy with $7.50.

      What is your strategy at that point? Set a stop, and if it's reached, buy back when it appears on its way up to $9.15?

      Delete
    6. But it is 50% rise.
      How coult that be possible?

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    7. I think it'll have trouble at $7.50 short term so may be best to unload and then let it settle to reload.

      Delete
    8. It doesn't take that big a move in the VIX for this to happen. These compound as they rise.

      Delete
    9. No, I plan to unload at equivalent of $7.50. Check out the new chart.

      Delete
  34. TAKE A WIZZZZZZZ

    HOW DARE YOU COME ON AND MAKE THIS STATEMENT………


    ”all I see from YOU ARE questions about the market.
    LIKE NEWBIES who need some one to lead the way thru the dark.”

    Your bully like sales approach is disgusting…….go back to you own litter box and sell the unsuspecting! You’re a joke and as you have been on other blogs that got rid of you a apin! We are not here for a sales pitch from someone who obviously can’t even trade! %80 correct…………….WHAT A JOKE!

    HERES what a paid subscriber says:

    sn0000p1: The only ones gotten CRUSHED in October is YOU & your suckers VPN.


    sn0000p1: Jay, why don't you put up the energy flow graph from Wed-Fri against the reality. Tell us how you & your dwindling VPN made money out of following your energy charts.


    sn0000p1: Wake up Jay, the only things CRUSHED in October are your balls. You should offer REFUNDS to all your sucker VPNs.


    WHY DON’T YOU HAVE COMMENTS……………………………OBVIOUSLY YOU CAN’T HAVE ANYONE COMMENT ON YOUR BAIT AND SWITCH! GO BULLY SALES ON YOUR SITE! GET LOST!

    ReplyDelete
  35. Some observations on the EURO:
    Going back to January we could be in a right shoulder of a head & shoulder TOP.
    But here in March this pullback could be a right shoulder of
    an inverted head & shoulder BOTTOM! A break above 132.31 in
    FXE could produce a strong move. I think stocks will respond
    positively to that.

    ReplyDelete