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Thursday, February 2, 2012

$SPX - Update

The index looks nearly exhausted.  A final pop to the target level may be in order.  Yet, the big picture remains bearish.

The symmetry tells the story, and those charts will be coming shortly.

Daily Chart















The picture with NDX remains the same.  The weakness from the Oct 2011 low is clearly evident. 

2hour Chart

82 comments:

  1. ripper of 20 spx points tomorrow.

    Where's the crash?

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  2. That would be great. Looking forward to shorting it.

    It's coming. Already confirmed.

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    Replies
    1. Hope you're right SC I have my bets in place and I'm currently down 5% and whilst I don't mind missing profits I hate losing capital!!!!

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    2. I have confidence in the symmetry charts, and the market is behaving in a way that is consistent with those pattern.

      Delete
  3. Hi SC are you looking at shorting SPX around this level or still waiting for the 1340 area. I agree it looks to running out of steam here.

    Also in regards to gold and silver do you see much more upside or do you feel the top is around this area.

    Keep up the great work SC.

    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. Nice pop this morning, and a good level to look to short.

      Yes, short term Gold and Silver are ready to dip. I have some great charts coming for Gold!

      Delete
  4. Guys check this out.

    I love this kinda stuff!

    http://www.markettrak.com/special4_100.html

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  5. Sold my long position from 1323. Will be sizing up the shorts this morning.

    My cycle analysis turns quite negative middle of the day today.

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  6. today the SPX will going up until next week at 1340?

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  7. Well, the interesting thing is, that 2% dropped out of the labour force and that is why the unemployment rate went down. That is a record, and it is very bad news. Of course the headline number of jobs added is good, but I think the market is ahead of itself here and agree SC, this could be a good short opportunity. HOWEVER, need to consider if a Greek deal is done this weekend, it will present likely another pop, albeit a brief one. Therefore I am rethinking when to go short here and its not likely to be today.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SS76 No Greek debt deal this WE. In fact the exact opposite.
      Rumors are rife that Papademos is on the verge of resigning on Monday.
      If that happens ALL HELL WILL BREAK LOSE.

      Gap up in the Naz. It would look pretty bearish if that gap holds and then we gap down Monday to form a island reversal.

      Cheers

      Delete
  8. Silver actually dropped this morning, dollar gyrating around. Let's see how it settles out.

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  9. Interesting development.......I say now short this pop!
    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/eurusd-tumbles-rumor-papademos-resignation-eurogroup-meeting-delay?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29

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  10. BKX is breaking out to the upside. good luck to shorts lol

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  11. Also, the SPX is now overbought at 72, MACD is turning down, and greek talks look like they are going to collapse with the Feb 6th Meeting cancelled, and greek PM likely now to resign.

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  12. Every first friday of the month, when us unemployment rate beats market expectations, dollar goes up, and precious metals go down very sharply. Let's see what happens

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  13. Ignore the rumors, ignore the noise, ignore the expectations. Indicators can stay overbought for a long time thats how it is during bull runs. Only when you get strong sell signals you start acting.

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    Replies
    1. Fair point AM, however if you look at the SPX Charts in the last 3 years, traditionally this is a good place/time to short. The mess in Europe is only going to get worse, so the combination of overbought with a fragile investor psyche I'm thinking will create opportunities like the one we have right now.

      Delete
  14. As I predicted yesterday..........Ripper........

    Bias will get you killed.

    Where's the the crash?

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  15. SC
    For Long term target price of the Silver is 37-49? right?

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    Replies
    1. $38 Silver future is the target, but it should drop first short term. Dollar surging.

      Delete
  16. Bought TVIX at $14.48, and short SPX 1341.

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  17. I did also SC, except bought HVU at $8.94

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  18. SC,
    This morning to buy SLV price is 33.04
    I am a long-term investment
    Next time lows around?
    If pulled back and buy again
    Appreciate your reply

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think Silver can pullback short term and next week should see lower prices. Then it becomes attractive again for upside.

      Delete
  19. My cycle analysis is negative for today, dollar surging is bearish for stocks, NDX weakening.

    There are good reasons to be short imo.

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  20. What about Monday and next week? Your 1340 target has been reached, but your main turn date was Feb 9th....

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Bottom line I don't see much upside here. Risk return looks good for shorts.

      Delete
  21. Looks like the Silver high was yesterday. I thought maybe it would present a better short entry today with a pop in the mkt, but the surging dollar is preventing that from happening.

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  22. http://www.wavaholic.com/

    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-dLjJqPSbmzM/TysbpDQBeoI/AAAAAAAACaI/dEyP4N0Qw4s/s1600/silver02022012a.jpg

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  23. My next short term target for SPX is 1289-95. The market is very overextended here.

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  24. When do you have that target in place until?

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    Replies
    1. So, just for clarity, your eye of the Hurricane thread you stated that Feb 8/9 was the turn date where the drop would likely occur. So are you suggesting that we drop to 1289-95 by the 9th, and from there drop further (Crash could be used since we would be talking about a 100 point drop in relatively short period of time?)

      Delete
    2. I think we could drop sharply to 1289-95 and bounce again short term. So basically a few whipsaws with the end result culminating in a major decline.

      Delete
  25. The SPX plan from last weekend played out. With that timing configuration, a low next week SPX 1289-95 Feb 8-9th is the target.

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  26. SC, markets can correct through price and time. Dont under estimate the greed of market participants.. especially in highly manipulated silver market.

    3<10<20 DMA still for Gold silver ratio. It needs first to get above 53 for any significant correction to get going. Dont see it yet.

    If US dollar index fails to put in a reversal here you will not get any significant sell of in metals and most likely in the equities as well.

    Atilla retracted his bear call in december 2011 pointing out europian printing presses going full force and taking this top broadening formation into late 2012. So far seems to be exactly what is happening.

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    Replies
    1. I believe Atilla is also looking for a weak first half, and I agree completely.

      For Silver, I only see a short term pullback and then do see it pushing higher.

      Delete
    2. he was looking for higher levels first (it was said at 130spy).

      SC the only hope you have right now is there is some negative divergence on the daily on the index, kinda looks like before summer drop. But first dollar index needs to spike and its failing to take out its 10DMA so far. There is some bottoming hope for UUP but it may still dip lower.

      I say 1370 next week to make it more painful.

      Delete
  27. SC after we hit the 1289-1295 target, are you looking for a bounce then a resumption of the sell off? If so what are your targets?

    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. Yes Muzz, a couple whipsaws first then drop to 1044 SPX.

      Delete
  28. Is the short term pullback for Silver still 30.50 SLV?

    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. Yes, the target is right in that area.

      Delete
  29. SC do u have a target in time also???
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/02/03/us-markets-stocks-idUSTRE80T0J120120203
    really good news from job report ...
    no weakness on ndx ...
    no weakness in spoore
    it's really difficult believe to your scenario ...
    if your scenario come true at 1.500 pts of spoore it's too easy
    thx for your reply
    cy

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, I have timing for when it starts and how long to the bottom. I'm going to wait to make those announcements until just before. One step at a time.

      Delete
  30. Doug Kass says the market has been closely following Lindsey's Three Peaks and a Domed House pattern since last spring. His chart has us at or near the top of the domed house right now. Assuming we continue to follow the pattern, this will be the final top for the pattern and the next major move should be down. Buy the dips has been the correct call since September, but that may be about to change.

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  31. Yes, I have monitored that pattern as well, and it fits nicely. The targeted area from that pattern is just above the July 2010, 1010 SPX low.

    It fits well with my other analysis.

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  32. we are going for 1370, probably overshoot to 1400. sounds reasonable considering how many have missed the train. put call ratio had a 50/200 DMA bear cross in january 2012. Should have been a warning for all shorts:

    http://stockcharts.com/c-sc/sc?s=$CPCE&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&i=p20745561026&r=1611

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  33. Once it plunges, I'm planning to cover shorts next week in the 1289-95 zone. Re-short on a bounce.

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  34. Of the trades posted on the site over the last month, all S&P trades were wins for a total of 70 points both short and long. Not bad for a slow month.

    I did lose a $1.08 on the TVIX trade, but am now repositioned lower. VIX has a nice looking hammer today.

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  35. no weakness so far this afternoon....Monday bearish?

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  36. Possible that we make a sort term peak 13th or 14th at 1365-1375

    Where's the crash?

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    Replies
    1. ckorey, looks like you had the right call, but I sincerely (for my sake) hope we get a sudden turnaround starting with the Greece situation unravelling. Although in this market, that might actually boost stocks.

      Delete
  37. Dow transports look weak today $TRAN.

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  38. Man, took a nice haircut on HVU today, hope it turns around.

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  39. Feb 3rd. Interesting, no?

    http://tinyurl.com/7yb7yqn

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    Replies
    1. LOl! I think that is pretty much how this plays out as those dates match mine...........but am open to all.

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    2. cool! zigzag, where do u see the feb 3 turn dropping to? perhaps 20 dma?

      Delete
    3. Hi SS76...My strength is timing and I've never been good at price. But, I think we could have a move down similar to February last year..

      http://tinyurl.com/6rbrnnn

      Delete
  40. Choppy next week but think we are higher by 13th-14th

    Trimmed a lot of longs today.

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  41. guys im in hvu at $9.40 is it a safe price to be in at?

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    Replies
    1. I'm going to look at the TVIX charts further, but roughly $21 or better looks possible as a next move on the upside next week.

      For HVU, that would be $12.75 or so.

      Delete
  42. ZIZ ZAG

    In your chart can you tell what year you are using and why you picked that year. If you have already stated it I apologize but I could not find it in the archive! Tx, jon

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    Replies
    1. Hi Jon...The year on that chart is 1967. I've been using 1966-67 because there was a cycle that I found that aligned with the May 2011 high and the 1966 February high. The cycles aligned with the 1966 October low and the 2011 October low. So far, it is still in alignment and we're following close to the 1967 rise.

      Delete
  43. Cycles seem to be proven useless, missing out on a screaming buy followed by huge move up just to get a few points on the downside 2 thousand points higher?? There is no big sell off coming SC at least for weeks. There is no set up.

    http://img690.imageshack.us/img690/2729/bearsdontlearn.png

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  44. The charts this weekend will show what is coming.

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  45. SC, I am looking forward to seeing your new charts on precious metals !
    According to my model, gold and silver should correct a little bit this week. But I do not know if I take short positions, precious metals markets are really hard to understand right now.

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  46. What kind of news is going to cause a 50+ point SPX drop in a few days? Greece?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, Greece will be the focus of the week. There will be rumours, confusion, negatives, and actually there are certain positives also.

      Will explain further soon.

      Delete
  47. hi,SC
    anxiously waiting for your precious metals charts

    ReplyDelete
  48. SC,
    After March, U.S. stock what kind of industry
    optimistic of you ? ITB XHB or XLI or XLU or QQQ?

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    Replies
    1. I have long term detailed charts that I have been saving for the right moment on the QQQ's. A major cycle is due for the QQQ's.

      It is going to be incredible....

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    2. Your question is a good one. March is a key month this year.

      The bears are in power now.

      Delete
  49. SC.

    Not trying to be a pain but after reading the archives, you have been calling for a top for quite a few months! If you have made 70 points as stated, why not just post charts as you progress and show trades and why rather than the focus as you have been doing which has been questionable at the least to readers. Then the trades would run into the call as they would be in front of us. I do not have the ability to do so and appreciate all your work so I do not want this taken out of context. Just a thought!


    Tx,
    jon

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  50. Those are fair points Jon, and I agree in many way. I'm planning to do things differently going forward. The idea is to better merge the theory with execution of trading strategy. I plan to show my trades and reasoning.

    Thank you for the feedback.

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  51. Sc

    Thanks for understanding and responding..........this email stuff, without any tone, can lead to misunderstandings or give a feeling to owner of a person not being respectful etc. As a member here I am just trying to understand what you take for granted as it is your work! So a line might make sense to you or a market call but to us we might be scratching our heads! AND of course you owe us NOTHING and I want to be respectful of that! Best, jon

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    Replies
    1. couldn't agree more, sc is a good guy as are others like zigzag

      Delete
  52. A Plausibe explanation of why/how the stock market has been going up in the last couple months despite the headwinds is offered in an article in "oftwominds.com" blog, The argument goes as follows relative to the possible Greek default and its impact on CDS's covering that default:
    ."...........some of these CDS are written against various swaps or stock indices, meaning that the asset to be delivered upon default is ultimately a claim against stock indices, currencies, etc............Prudent institutions aren't waiting around until the dominoes fall--they're buying the underlying assets( including stock indicies) so they can meet their CDS obligations. That's the only way not to topple into insolvency when the default causes CDS to be recognized as due and payable."
    http://www.oftwominds.com/blog.html

    ReplyDelete