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Sunday, February 12, 2012

AAPL - Parabolas Never End Well - Apple CRASH Setup

Apple is going parabolic on a daily time frame.  $544 is an upside target this week as it goes vertical.  We saw an example of the VIX making a parabolic intraday move on Friday, and it collapsed into the close as predicted. 

Parabolas do not "end well" mathmatically. 

Watch Apple this week.  Once the parabola exhausts, a collapse could take it down to a downside $390 target quickly.

Apple CRASH starts this week!   

Daily Chart

34 comments:

  1. I don't see it stopping at $390 on the downside either.

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  2. Thanks. On the anchor of the upper white line, at May 2010, you exclude the top there. What is your reasoning on that placement?

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    1. I could go back to 2009 and include that top using a different trendline. However I noticed that those 2 white lines are a parallel channel.

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  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  4. SC,Can you help to view?

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ITB&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p82321474366&a=257243631&yr=5&mn=6&dy=0

    What is the weekly chart above annotation means?
    "Range bound"
    Is said to be up officially break through this interval have a chance to continue upward bull trend
    Can explain your views?

    "The blue circle up"
    Buy the large
    Long-term sustained bull bullish signal?
    Large amount is a danger signal?
    Through the technical analysis of the ability to determine the future is more or see empty

    Could you guidance
    Thank you very much

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    1. Let me take a look at that, Thanks.

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  5. This rally in SP is getting long in the tooth just like your timings for 1280 prediction. It seems like you keep pushing it further. Now you have a dip between feb 8- feb 27, where is the dip ?

    Are you still short at 1341?

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    1. SCFeb 10, 2012 01:18 PM
      My cycle analysis for the weekend and Monday morning looks positive. Most likely to see a positive open imo. After Monday morning it turns more negative next week.

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    2. Pleased to see the market higher this morning. I have a small short, and looking to build it up. I may short NDX. Also, TVIX.

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  6. AAPL don't have a leg to stand on with their legal battle over Samsung. They've lost in every country the case has been heard. GOODBYE MARKET DOMINATION!

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  7. Bought TVIX at $16.94. Just above the 61.8% retracement.

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  8. Good stuff. I bought HVU at $10.26 but wasn't sure where your TVIX calculations fit with HVU, just figured when TVIX got to your price, then HVU must be there also.

    Samaras, the Greek opposition leader likely to win the April elections, just stated that he will look to renegotiate the austerity terms "imposed" on them. Markets should love that.

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  9. If TVIX trades up to $17.90 I'll sell and look to reload lower.

    I don't have high expectations for it early this week. Later in the week, yes.

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    1. If we don't get much movement in TVIX are you considering holding overnight? Wondering about another gap down, although it seems less likely to me. Thanks.

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    2. I wish I would have taken profit earlier today actually. It seems it may dip a little $16.40 or something, but I plan to hold for a few days.

      $18.25 looks likely tomorrow/Wed.

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  10. XIV would have been great on Friday...

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  11. I think you mentioned that you see Tuesday and Wednesday being very negative, which should be good for the VIX....This would make sense because the Greeks have until Wednesday to come up with the additional $325 Million in savings.....Not likely I don't think

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    1. Middle part of the week around Wed does look weak to me.

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  12. Are stocks doing a large rounding distribution top now ? Seems like several cycles cresting here...the classical horizontally up and down wash behaviors.

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  13. SC, i still think there will be no disconnect between metals and the market, if market dives, gold and silver will too.

    Looking at the last COT, commercials are increasing short positions in metals. In the spring last year, if you look at the options activity a month before april silver top - its very revealing what commercials did, i do not see them going long now, im sure they would love to pile on another parabola one more time.

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    1. The commercials will build up short positions before the tops. They are not sensitive to pick tops exactly. As long as they feel they can profit in a reasonable time frame, then they will build up the positions.

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    2. SC, im just going by your parabolic theory that in 4 weeks gold would rally 300$+ and silver IMO would have to rally to at least 40, i'd hope to see some positioning, what i see is commercials increasing short position in silver and small/large specs increasing longs, we know how that works out for them.

      http://img829.imageshack.us/img829/7034/cotsilver3579331.png

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    3. Let's keep an eye on what they are doing. Maybe they will cover some shorts on a pullback for th metals this week.

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  14. Apple looks ok today but not super strong. Keep in mind that this parabolic move for Apple is occuring on a daily time frame. It could dip for a few days, and then continue the parabola upwards for days afterwards.

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  15. SPX analysis will be out today. SPX ready to roll over imo, and head to 1330 level around Wed. I plan to cover shorts there and reload on a bounce.

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  16. SC, Where are you looking to buy TVIX/HVU? I stopped out of my half position I bought today at breakeven, now wondering to buy back before days end or if tomorrow will give me a better buy point?

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    1. I don't see much downside $16.40 or so for TVIX maybe, today may be best. Markets look weak for next few days and TVIX should have a good pop into the $18's.

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  17. The Media is really hyping this Apple hitting $500 today. So very likely Apple dips a few days first, and then surges up to complete that parabola at $544.

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  18. By the way I am not overly bearish on Apple. It is still a great company, but the reality is that it is due for a deep correction. The cycle is due.

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  19. "February VIX futures and options expire at Wednesday’s open. February VIX options are last traded tomorrow, while the February VIX futures are last traded in Wednesday’s pre-market session, from 8:00 – 9:15 a.m. ET"

    SC, what impact will this have on HVU/TVIX?

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    1. No problem as they constantly roll the futures to have an average all the time.

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  20. TVIX looking ugly after hours. Just hope it rebounds next couple of days at this point.

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