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Sunday, February 26, 2012

Silver/Gold - Approaching Targets

After a consolidation period, Silver pushed higher last week.  Silver is currently testing the white trendline with significant resistance overhead.  It is anticipated that Silver can become much more volatile with choppy trading in coming weeks as it approaches the target above.  Overall there is anticipated to be some moderate upside for Silver into early March.

From this point onwards, during coming weeks, Gold is anticipated to have much better upside potential than Silver.  Generally, Silver could be more choppy with Gold holding gains and pressing higher more effectively.  

Of note, Gold and Silver moved higher last week with SPX hardly gaining anything for the week. 

60min Chart















The following chart is from January 27th Silver analysis.

Daily Chart















Update for Gold.  Gold is testing the midfork again. 

Daily Chart















The following chart is from February 8th Gold analysis:

Daily Chart

73 comments:

  1. Hey there,... not sure if you noticed silvers carved out inverse hs... will surpass your price objective.

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  2. So if I understand you, gold is expected to increase sharply this week ?
    Many thanks SC

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    Replies
    1. Gold may still be choppy first, but with small dips, and once it moves solidly above the midfork, Gold should be very strong.

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    2. In my opinion, precious metals are going to decline sharply before sky-rocketing.

      The drop in gold and silver prices should be triggered by the fear of a Greek default.

      SC, is what I forecast compatible with your analysis ?

      Thanks

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    3. I do think Silver can test $34 before $38 even if it presses a little higher first. Gold is likely going to be firmer on dips. Silver especially should be quite volatile. Trend is still bullish though.

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  3. you are been wrong in the last months. I think silver will outperform gold during 2012, it is so obvious about silver getting stronger than gold.

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    Replies
    1. That is true, Silver was the better performer early on, but I do see Gold being stronger going forward. We should be able to see evidence of this soon.

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  4. SLV:GLD keeps moving higher followed my projection in one of my previous post. The technical target is the height of trend channel that defined the movement of the pair in the past 7 months. As shown in the chart below, it is approaching to its target. As a key technical target, weakness is expected when it's hit. Nonetheless hitting the target is not a trigger for shorting SLV and longing GLD. The behavior of the pair at the target shall be watched closely by traders to understand future direction.
    sell structured settlement

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  5. Hi SC

    Are you still holding all your TVIX? any stop setup?


    Thanks!

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  6. It looks like it can find support around $16.50, and then move higher. The premium has shrunk today. I'm curious to see if it widens again in coming days.

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  7. moving along, 1425 next stop.

    Metals are held up by the liquidity. There will be no fear trade SC short term. Gold will not hit 1900+ per your time frame.

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  8. Hi SC the SPX is proving to be very frustrating it just won't let go. What is you view at the moment? Do you still see a correction coming soon? What sort of time frame and levels are you looking at?

    Thanks

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  9. AAPL close to re-testing all time highs again. ndx, spx look good. Global QE is too hard to go against. Just hoping there's room for a bounce in TVIX still semi soon.

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  10. It's been a slow market. A dip of a few points first seems probable, but a few points higher tomorrow is possible. Tomorrow my cycle analysis is positive, but then turns negative for many days in a row into early March. So that suggests finally start to decline tomorrow.

    The VIX is higher today.

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    Replies
    1. Hi SC

      I remember you mention today is negative no?

      Cannot imagine what positive is going to be like lol, we shooting for 1400?

      quick question, knowning is going to be positive tomorrow, wouldnt you be selling your TVIX and try to get a better price tomorrow?


      Thanks!

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  11. Today we saw some of everything, weak this morning, and then a solid bounce. Yet SPX is 6 points higher than a week ago. So this rally is struggling.

    The VIX is rising.

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  12. i should have sold at that $17.50 bounce, but I'm still holding at $17.35. i'm getting nervous b/c honestly i don't know much what i'm doing. yes, this isn't smart i realize, but i thought i'd try something different. what you think SC? hold for that $23 range?

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    Replies
    1. Difficult to say because of the premium issue. As a result need to see more of the action unfold.

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  13. Are you serious ?? Feb 27 cam and went and we are the highest we gave been inn8 months.

    What happened to atleast 1334? Or 1280?

    Nice crash. Eventually it will, maybe next month. Even I can tell you that.

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  14. It's been quiet. This morning SPX was at the same level as more than 2 weeks ago.

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  15. Silver just broke the 200 Day Moving Average! We have a liftoff!

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  16. I don't understand the reasons GOld and Silver are climbing....can anyone have any reason?

    Thanks

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  17. Silver is hitting that cluster of resistance above, and this presents a nice short for a $2 dip. Later today may be the sweet spot for Silver to top out. Silver can dip to $34 or so then I still see another rise to $38 early March.

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  18. SC
    for silver, is this uptrend's target(+$2) 37 or 38? And when anathor (after about $34) rising? May it be 7 March?

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    Replies
    1. For SLV the target is $37, for the Silver future it is $38.

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  19. SC you still expecting silver to top at 38ish.. then crash to 17 ? the inverse hs has a po to 42is.. this is the A wave b wave is a decline back to 37 ish then big C.

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  20. For the Silver future I'm expecting a $2 dip next to around $34, then a push to $38. That is my final upside target on Silver. I have new charts coming to outline the next phase coming soon.

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    Replies
    1. Silver seems to be really strong. Do you continue to think that silver is going to dip before pushing up to $38 ?

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  21. Just WTF!@....crazy buying like no end to this....

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  22. ı thınk sılver goıng to 120-130 ons in two years...

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  23. SC, Looks like silver will touch 38 on this run only...

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  24. The resistance for Silver is likely to prove really strong at this level. The probability of a $2 dip is very high.

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  25. Really interesting !
    SC,what is the level of the sweet spot for Silver to top out in your opinion ?
    Thanks !

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    Replies
    1. Not much higher, maybe 20 cents.

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  26. SC you have been calling for a market top and a silver crash for a while now... don't you think its time to revise your methods... just saying... the inverse hs for silver looks to po to 42 ish..

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    Replies
    1. I've been bearish on SPX, but not Silver. My analysis has been very bullish on Silver since December other than suggesting some small dips here and there.

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  27. SC, I think $ 37.50 or close to that will be top of silver and it will take big dip along with market...like I have mentioned many times here that S & P and silver will run in same direction.

    Don't see $40 for silver for long time...

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    Replies
    1. Generally agree, but I think Silver dips first to $34, then tops out at $38.

      Delete
  28. SC... whats the game plan for SPX?

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  29. The cycle analysis was positive for today as mentioned yesterday, but it turns negative for 4 days in a row starting tomorrow. Therefore SPX should see a sizable decline next along with Silver.

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    Replies
    1. HI SC
      MY DAILY EKG shows the MKT down today AND TOMRROW thru noon so far until it updates completely by 7pm today

      BY 4pm, it depicts the next day up till 3pm.

      YES, cycles also indicate a strong dip to 1300 by March 2nd and or 5th.

      After which the SPX should break over 1400 by March 21st at the latest.
      Jaywiz

      Delete
  30. I hope negative does not mean -5 points on the SPX.

    I'm still holding my shorts waiting for your 1334 and 1280 targets to come....eventually

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    Replies
    1. negative could mean we dive in the morning and then come back up, but lower high each day. choppy

      in these kind of strong bull market, dont expect much downsize to the extreme each day. today we got bad number, look at the market reaction? pretty much expect the same every day going forward until something change

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    2. That is how it has been, but finally we should see a larger move next.

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  31. Sc. long time follower here. Am i a fool for holding tvix when it is engineered to go to zero? Ive been holding it for about 2 weeks.

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    Replies
    1. The VIX should move higher along with SPX declining soon. It is difficult to put numbers on TVIX now because of this premium issue. We haven't seen how it will act in this type of environment yet.

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    2. So then how about Hvu? You seem stuck on Tvix because of the premium when Hvu has no such issues

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    3. On Monday it reached that $10 target I mentioned last week. Probably dip a little tomorrow morning, then rise sharply to mid $10 or so.

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  32. This is one of those spots where SPX has been slowly and steadily grinding higher, but much of this can be erased rather quickly. I'm eyeing 1317 SPX.

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  33. sc,

    We are 37.20 on silver now, it is only 80 cents away from your 38 target, so it could call very close to your target, then why you still saying that it will go only $ 2 dip and go back again at 38? in choppy sessions yes that will happen but overall silver will remain bearish...

    Problem for bulls with silver is that they can't afford to let momentum go from silver or else everyone will start dumping and that is the reason silver is keep going up in parabolic fashion.

    just thought...

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  34. whats your outlook for GDP numbers? personally i'm fearing 1375.

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  35. SILVER

    I have the cycle up until MID MARCH with very little setback! Best, jon

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  36. At this rate, Silver will hit $200 / ounce by the end of next week :). I don't know about silver, but S&P is still going to head higher. I still see 1378 at a minimum before any real sell-off.

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  37. SC : recall many of your posts calling for 17 dollar silver after hitting 37 dollars? have you negated that call? I find that hard to be bullish

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    Replies
    1. Yes, that is correct once the target of $38 is reached my pattern will turn bearish. I have charts coming to show this. Thanks.

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  38. Short-term top soon?

    Double bottom split.
    http://tinyurl.com/7x6szta

    Example from the past.
    http://tinyurl.com/732uzoe

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  39. Shall we stick a fork in it? COME ON...
    NOT jinxing here but really come on.. lets get some down side here

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  40. Stockboom

    I am looking at 39 1/2 May contract!

    jon

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  41. NDX peak?

    http://tinyurl.com/7b6a7j6

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  42. ZZ, AAPL is the elephant in the room. Literally. With AAPL rallying NDX wont go down. It is still looking up on daily and weekly time frames. Climbing the wall of worry... days, weeks?

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    Replies
    1. AAPL MAY climb for weeks however look at the weekly MACD.

      That is about THE most over extended indicator I have ever seen. When this goes it is going to be dramatic to say the least.
      Parabolic moves like this end witha bang NOT with a whimper.
      http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p60703670931

      Delete
  43. SC
    do you have any new charts coming on the SPX?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, I have a plan for SPX. Maybe a couple points higher tomorrow morning, but 1317 is the area to look at next imo.

      Delete
  44. Hello Everyone,

    Recent actions have put doubts on everyone's mind about SC's trading methods and predictions but I want to say on behalf of people alike me that SC we support and appreciates your efforts and encourage you to continue doing so...

    We all understand some things in life is beyond your control only thing you can do is to work and work hard..put your best efforts and end of the day if you don't get result you want...you know what TRY AGAIN.....

    I believe you..reason for this note to provide you support and confidence that yes your trading method works...cheer up and don't feel bad about anyone....

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    Replies
    1. Thanks Stockboom - appreciate that. When the market is like this with a grinding phase it can be frustrating. However, I do think we'll see the action pick up soon.

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  45. New chart is up for SPX. Selling pressure should be evident starting later today.

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  46. SC was right, it even diped at 33$ ! Now what is the target for Silver

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    Replies
    1. A fast drop for Silver today.

      Silver still might have a little lower to go first in coming days, but the target at $38 is still valid in my opinion.

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