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Wednesday, February 8, 2012

Gold - Parabolic Move Coming

Gold and Silver are due to dip somewhat short term.  The overall picture remains extremely bullish for Gold especially.  In approximately 4 weeks, Gold should surge up in a parabolic rise to a target at $2,050. 

Daily Chart















Silver has been trading flat but finally should be ready to dip, and then rally up strongly.  In approximately 4 weeks, Silver futures should reach $38 according to the geometry and timing/price box pattern.

Only the next couple of moves are shown on the chart.  Updates will be coming at a later date.

60min Chart

89 comments:

  1. so again you are expecting disconnect of metals from the market, which did not happen in january.. What has changed? .. or again everything rallies into the spring?

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  2. At this point I still see them all being correlated. However, precious metals can make higher highs with SPX making lower highs.

    Gold and Silver are both up much more % than SPX since the end of Dec. So it is the same outperformance that I expect to continue, but choppy prevails with SPX making lower highs.

    There could be some disconnects later in the month/early March with fear trade.

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    Replies
    1. So then you are not expecting any significant market sell off until mid march or so?

      Delete
  3. Well theres the signal boys. Time to short.

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  4. sc

    Do you have any date estimate for this correction bottom in Silver? tx, jon

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  5. Sc

    The reason I ask is I have the Silver correction ending by the end of the week! Are you in that ballpark? tx, jon

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    Replies
    1. I think there is a window up until Feb 14th, preferably this week.

      Delete
  6. SC,

    For silver and Gold to detached from S & P needs big serious reason, and even if that happens not sure it will detach.

    Near term events that can effect are Greece, Iran war, Syria conflict etc, and in all these events I see USD going higher and may see parabolic move up and that will take both metals and market down significantly.

    Just my thoughts.

    Thanks

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  7. SC

    Thanks...............just went short! jon

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  8. Interesting muted reaction to the Greece news......looks like it was priced in? Perhaps we sell off....

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    Replies
    1. commodities are up, but like I mentioned earlier this could be sell on news type reaction.

      we will see, market is seriously due for major correction

      Delete
    2. I agree. I have my HVU stop in at $9.05. Not taking chances here either. I Bought HSD at the close yesterday, that one I am comfortable holding as I don't see this market heading straight for 1400, I see 1300 first.

      Delete
  9. sc

    Meat to say went short the emini not silver ......buving silver! jon

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  10. SC, so technically its possible this pause that we had in metals is all we will get... with no further dip?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Most likely metals dip short term, but the trend for the metals is up, and the better opportunity later this month is on the long side imo.

      So best to pick spots carefully.

      Delete
    2. HI SC
      Ive been projecting a FEB 23rd PIVOT LOW, followed by
      a HUGE SPX & GOLD rally thru March 14th initially, but not ending till the EOM.

      Ive published a graph for my VPN group showing those parameters earlier this month

      ITS POSSIBLE the FEB high wont hit until Monday at 2pm

      Beset Wishes
      Jay

      Delete
  11. sc

    Iam with you on metals..........I have a leg up here with shallow dip! jon

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  12. Sold TVIX at $15.68. My entry was at $14.48. I'm just not sure short term if it settles back or has more to run. Ultimately a move over $21 is the target. I will sit back and see how it acts here next for a bit.

    If it settles back I will buy, and watch for another entry.

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  13. The OCT 10th 2007 TOP at SPX 1576 was 1576 days to FEB 3rd as previously noted by many,
    BUT the MKT did NOT break down till 5 days later thus FEB 10th comes into FOCUS.
    And OCT 18th was the 20 yr anniv of the 1987 crash

    the EURO COT as shown BY McClellan indicates a top on or about the 8th
    including the 24th which I have mentioned and noted on the E graphs, as a PIVOT LOW for the 23rd

    The ELLIOTT graph indicates 1357 as an absolute top- but its NOT a MUST DO ??

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  14. SC, any idea when NDX will go down? It keeps rising nonstop even as SPX and RUT turned. Also, any time/price target?

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    Replies
    1. I have been watching that closely as well. NDX is still weaker than SPX since the Oct low. Yet, it has been holding well in Jan, and still holding. Perhaps that is what we are waiting for to see a turn in these markets.

      The NDX should weaken first. I'll show some charts on that index. It is an important part of the picture going forward.

      Delete
  15. How will the miners perform wtih this gold parabolic move?
    I am new to this blog. Is this guy usually right? sometimes right? Does he track his performance? I mean what are the chances of someone calling a parabolic move in gold to start next couple of weeks?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I think most here would agree that my Gold/Silver analysis has been pretty decent overall.

      The smaller movements are hard to predict with precision, but I have confidence in my work for the metals overall.

      Delete
  16. Goodness knows, you think to 1044 of SP500 and then sell after a rise of 6%. Tvix. The potential is area 45/50.... If you believe the crash. Otherwise he seems as much an attempt to me for tests and mistakes.

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  17. SC... is your target of 1285 - 1290 on the SPX over the next week changed now? As in do you still see a dip to those levels?

    Please advice.

    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. I still see that being the next move. The market has been really slow this week, that level is a target for next week imo.

      Delete
  18. Actually that is an 8.3% gain in 5 trading days. Nothing wrong with that in my books.

    I'll sit back and look for another entry on it.

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  19. Nothing wrong at all with taking profit.

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  20. Some thoughts I am having are that the VIX is up 1.76%, but TVIX is up 6.95%. 2x VIX % is 3.52%. This is a rough calc, and the TVIX doesn't have to abide by this since it is based on futures. However, for right this moment the valuation might be slightly rich based on what the VIX is doing.

    NDX is holding strong. Bears want to see this weaken. Tomorrow my cycle analysis is positive for mkts. It's hard to see any upside, but perhaps we need a little more time for this momentum to burn off.

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  21. We're in the zone here. Might top today, or early next week.
    I'm still bullish on the year.

    http://tinyurl.com/6vbeuzu

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  22. RSI now at 75.56, Bollinger Band at the top band, and the Bollinger band width very narrow....a solid move in any direction will trigger a big reaction....I'm betting its down.

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  23. ZigZag

    Downside target 1280? Thanks for charts..Appreciate it.

    Take Care!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Moneyman..Somewhere around there looks good. I mainly follow time and I'm not very good on price. Once we start seeing this pullback the next low is likely in late Feb early March.

      Delete
  24. SC .. are you still short the s&p?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, still short. I freed up a lot of cash with my earlier sell of TVIX so I am in a more flexible position now.

      I have enough reasons to remain short. Tomorrow I will decide if it is time to build up further short positions.

      Delete
    2. SC, it would be reasonable to expect larger volatility swings as the market turns which could also produce lower price points on TVIX as it often goes deeper even on lower highs after a top. Not a given, just an observation on possibilities.

      Delete
    3. Yes, that is often the case.

      Delete
  25. Printing a Hammer on the $SPX.........looks like the top is in!

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  26. ZigZag

    Interesting! So you can probably buy stocks or PM:s after this correction?

    So you think that we easy will go higher than 1370 in SPX later this year..? After this correction..!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, I plan on adding to longs after this correction. We still have a few more cycle peaks to go and we'll likely be trading above 1,370 this year.

      Delete
  27. Well I've heard so many "top is in" calls over the past month, I've lost count.... using every type of indicator EW, TA, cycles, sentiment, astrology(!), news stories, the list goes on. Each time, they were wrong and we keep marching higher.
    Bottom line: I'll believe it when I see it lol.

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  28. I hear ya Chris. We'll see. Stopped out of HVU at $9.58 but bought double the amount of shares at $9.61 when I realized that this Greece situation is actually gonig to turn very negative and couple that with the fact that the SPX is very overbought on the RSI indicator, which if you go back several years you will see is quite reliable that the pullback wil happen from this level.

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  29. Chris, i also see a scenario where nothing happens with greece, and they kick the can down the road. We shake off the over-bought conditions and correct through time. Betting on some event happening ... no thank you.

    How many times "top is in" was said in july/august? something to think about. I bet if you plot "top is in" vs "time" on this and other blogs you could get a really nice contrary indicator..

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  30. Oh don't get me wrong. I hope you're right. I'm one of the Bears. I actually thought the top was in below 1300. I'm still expecting a double digit decline in the market before we resume a larger rally upwards. Bernanke needs an excuse to implement QE3 also, and I think he's secretly hoping for a decline as well Lol.... so we can get QE3 in before election times.

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    Replies
    1. Yup, we're in agreement, but your sentiments I thought are bang on. I've acted with conviction before and gotten burned, but I do think this time the top is in at least short term before as you said a higher rally. Whether we drop to 1044, I don't know, but I probably won't be short if that happens cause I'll chicken out well before that.

      Delete
  31. SC

    "Gold and Silver are due to dip somewhat short term."

    CME cuts margins for Gold, Silver effective after Monday's trading hrs. Wouldn't this be positive for the PMs next week?

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  32. yes, one would think so. First they declare we will keep money flowing then they say it will cost you less to open and maintain your positions, looks like they are trying to bring back the small specs? Hedgies are tried of playing with themselves, need fresh meat? lol

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  33. Monday bloodbath coming for the SPX? We may get that 1290 if the downward momentum picks up...

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  34. Let's see how it goes. This market has been slow lately. It could bounce and take time. I'm wondering if we bounce into Monday morning and then selloff into Wed.

    Silver has not come down much.

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  35. Greek negotations heading into Wed it seems.
    http://www.cnbc.com/id/46338474

    "The finance minister made clear that the fate of the package and the PSI (Private Sector Involvement) bond swap depended on what Greece decided in the next few days.

    "Until the next Eurogroup which will most likely convene on Wednesday, our country, our people should think and make a final strategic choice," he said."

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  36. SC, banking index (BKX) does not look that bad at all ... i dont see it going into crash mode yet. correct - perhaps, but crash in progress?

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    Replies
    1. I agree. Remember my patterns show chop for most of Feb, and then the steep declines in March. It'll take time for sure. Slowly, but surely it is weakening...

      Likely that we can bounce higher into Monday. Then, I think a test of support at 1330 SPX is next.

      Delete
    2. How does this apply to TVIX? I got out too early in the high 15s. It seems unstoppable now. Do you think we pull back into the 16s at least? Thanks.

      Delete
    3. SC, so when you made that crash call a few days ago you relied on your timing patterns more than on other conventional parameters? wouldnt it be better to match both and when they agree issue a warning, instead of calling a top and then moving targets higher and higher for weeks and weeks?

      i'd think most people would rather get in when the move is beginning and there are confirmations vs being waaaay to early. just my thoughts.

      Delete
    4. AM, very good point. I think that is what I am trying to do on my own. I'm using TA, considering SC's timing analysis, and then making partial decisions in case I get it wrong. Look for HVU to run into the close. Bought at $8.90, sold at $11.05, rebought at $11.21.

      Delete
    5. The optimal time to short in terms of price is as close to a top as possible. What the charts have all shown is that lower highs are needed before large declines.

      It is a matter of preference. One can wait and short on lower highs with more confirmation. However, pricing won't be optimal then. So that is the tradeoff.

      Delete
    6. Yes, I do think TVIX comes back down as well.

      Delete
    7. I couldn't wait lol. Loaded back up at 19. This thing is moving!

      Delete
  37. Hey SC, what are your thoughts on silver ? Tonight and next week...
    So many thanks

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    Replies
    1. Silver has been generally holding better than Gold today. I think Silver can decline some more next week, but it is holding for now.

      Delete
  38. Gotta hand it to you SC, HVU is almost at $12. You called that one perfectly....not sure why you sold your TVIX.

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  39. AM, your posting of the COT chart was telling. Big Money buying protection......almost as if the sleeping Giant is now awake.....the reason the S&P hasn't tanked is the COT report confirmed that Commercial Institutions are not in the market right now, its small speculators that are buying into this market.

    So that is why the S&P hasn't tanked yet, big money isn't putting their money into the market, they are positioning to profit from a major drop.

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  40. TVIX likely to drop back to $18. Parabola's don't end well!

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  41. Hi SC<

    Do you think silver can still go to $ 31?

    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. I'm going to review Silver on the weekend. It has been hovering lately. Thanks.

      Delete
  42. Hi SC

    Wondering your take on Monday action? you think we will gap up or down according to your cycle?

    As well, if you expect tvix to go back to 18, curious to know why you didnt go long during that time?


    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. My cycle analysis for the weekend and Monday morning looks positive. Most likely to see a positive open imo. After Monday morning it turns more negative next week.

      Delete
    2. Would you consider getting back into TVIX on Monday morning then?

      Thanks!

      Delete
    3. Yes, I think it'll come back down to test high $17 low $18, then retest the high at near $21.

      Delete
    4. quick question, if you sold your TVIX @ 15.68, buying it back around high 17 or low 18, isnt that a bad trade? (assuming you buying the same lot sizes)

      Delete
    5. No of course not. I turned a nice profit on that trade though it could have been much more.

      I may reload higher, and the only thing that would matter is that it is sold higher from that point.

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    6. XIV would have been a good move at the top of the VIX parabola today.

      Delete
    7. I was going to buy XIV today near the high of VIX, but just dont like to hold it over the weekend...so much unknown...

      this next chart update you mention coming, is it for VIX? tvix?

      Delete
  43. TVIX did reach the minimum $21 target for the week with a parabolic move. Exciting stuff!

    I took profits way to soon, but I have some ideas for it next week. Chart coming...

    Said on last Saturday update:

    "A bullish wedge pattern appears complete for TVIX as of Friday, with a minimum of $21 to maximum of $23 targeted for next week."

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. HI SC
      Im expecting Monday higher till about 2pm then DOWN into WED afternoon
      Jay

      Delete
  44. SC do you see the high already in and are you still seeing 1290 next week on the spx?

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    Replies
    1. Interesting day today Sami! I'm going to review everything carefully this weekend. It does look like a higher open Monday, then decline from there.

      Delete
    2. If the market open higher, it doesnt mean TVIX will follow right?

      If it does follow, do you think max pain would be around low 17 at all? or you think max pain will be around high 17?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    3. I'm going to be looking at the levels in great detail this weekend. Parabola's like this act predictably. There are going to be some great trades to be had next week imo.

      Delete
  45. SC,
    MAJOR ANNOUNCEMENT + SENSEX + SHANGHAI
    http://markethighsandlows.wordpress.com/

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  46. I think TVIX minimum target early next week is the upper BB with the 50dma a potential absolute upside. I am a seller from the high 24's.


    Cheers

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  47. Dear SC
    Look at this"QQQ" Will be "$ 10" movie up someday(60-70/59-69), please add. this on your view and cycle analysis.
    "http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2012/02/qqq-weekend-update.html"

    wait for your work!Thank you so much!

    ReplyDelete
  48. According to my model, gold and silver are expected to decline sharply this week.
    SC, you seek a drop to $ 31.5 for this week ? I think it is likely to happen.
    Let's see

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  49. SC,

    you still expecting 17 dollar silver.??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. We go to $38 next few weeks, and then stay tuned. I've been saving some charts for the appropriate time...

      Delete
  50. SC: i see the 38 dollars happening... I'm just wondering about your 18 dollar call...do you still see that happening...

    ReplyDelete