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Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Silver - Update

Perhaps Silver is aiming for the tip of these triangles.  Silver has been the leader and Gold the follower in January.  Gold has been firmer than Silver over the last few days.  Silver may be in a holding pattern with minimal upside waiting for Gold to form a short term top.

Both should be ready to dip soon.

Daily Chart

57 comments:

  1. On a short term basis upside potential for Silver could be 40-50 cents to the triangle apex with downside potential of $3 next.

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  2. so I take it you haven't shorted it yet?

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  3. I haven't yet but likely soon.

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  4. 34 might of been are best chance before all the bad economic news. Was thinking about shorting, but missed it.

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  5. Silver is always tricky to pinpoint for sure.

    The SPX cycle analysis has been working really well. Yesterday was positive all day as I mentioned, and that was good for 20 points upside. This morning was negative and that was good for 10 points downside.

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    1. Hi SC

      Do you think we just going to have a red day today? or end in green spy today?


      Thanks!

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  6. Not sure, the morning was negative, but now my cycle analysis looks weakly positive for the day. Not too conclusive.

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  7. What about Silver now......heading in the right direction as far as I'm concerned.....SPX I think is heading toward its 20 DMA before moving higher.

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  8. Yes, Silver likely topped this morning. Missed this first leg down, so now i am waiting for a retracement perhaps 50% of the move today to short it.

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  9. Hi Sc

    Do you see tomorrow to be a green day with SPY, like up trend continue?


    Thanks!

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  10. My thinking is that SPY would rally a little more today, and then fall tomorrow.

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  11. Let's monitor the next few hours.

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  12. I think $33.20 is a good place to reshort....

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  13. Interesting that you haven't shorted Silver yet SC, didn't you suggest an imminent sharp decline for Silver?

    You thinking otherwise? Given these are timing cycles, aren't you running out of time to short? Just trying to understand your price targets vs timing cycles

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  14. Have been waiting on some data. It still looks promising for a Silver dip.

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  15. I went long on silver before close, looks like silver will touch 200 MA before turning....and since it is not sustaining below 33 gives me more reason to go long...

    will see how tomorrow plays out...

    Cheers

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  16. Yes, let's see how it plays out. Gold still holding today.

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  17. Replies
    1. Calculations for my cycle analysis.

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  18. SC, do you still see $ 34.50 to short silver ?

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    1. Silver may eke out a slight higher high from yesterday, and then finally it should be ready to drop. I do think Silver has been waiting for the Gold rally to finish. Gold is hitting heavy resistance up here now.

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  19. "My thinking is that SPY would rally a little more today, and then fall tomorrow."
    Hi SC,
    Futures are 10 points higher than yesterday close, are you still seing weakness today ?

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  20. For SPX we should put in a high today, and yes fall from today into Friday. Friday looks the weakest in my cycle analysis.

    From a low Friday, I think we rally next week. Feb 9th looks like a better estimate of a high next week than Feb 6th.

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    1. Hey SC,

      Do you still think we will hit a low of 1294/95 by the end of this week (Friday)? I would like your insight and appreciate the work you do.

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    2. Yes, in that area looks about right. No more than 1289.

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    3. I believe your original weekly call is still valid. Your low (the dot) falls on Feb. 2nd instead of the 1st of Feb. I guess we will see what happens tomorrow. Thanks again for the insight.

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  21. Feb 2nd should offer the best shorting opp for SPX, gold & silver as well as oil - Feb 10th should be a pivot low leading to a Feb 17th high, and second shorting opp this month
    Jaywiz

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    1. Interesting, as that is a direct contradiction to what SC is preaching.....what do you base this on JAY?

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    2. One thing to remember though is that highs and lows can be close together in this type of market. It's getting volatile - which is nice for trading.

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    3. Yes, however your call is for a Feb 8th,9th top before the major drop begins on the SPX....that is quite a difference from what Jay is preaching.

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  22. Jay, what are your targets and after this do you see rally into the spring/summer? thanks.

    p.s. whats EKG? Electrocardiography?

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    1. HI AM
      NOT an electrocardiogram-[gg]
      Ive found several SCIENTIFIC RESOURCES that have been very useful for market timing- come on by and read.
      SPX looks like right now today & FEB 2nd building and EDT from which a substantial set back into FEB 23rd is likely.
      BUT DO GET READY for an EXPLOSIVE rally into MARCH from that time point.

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    2. What do you mean by "building and EDT"?

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  23. SC, you still in cash? I would think given your analysis that you have shorted Silver by now, however you haven't posted your real time trade so i'm not sure....

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  24. Still have not yet, but watching very closely.

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  25. Are you second guessing your analysis? Confused...you seemed quite confident of a sharp decline for Silver, not looking to be materializing..

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  26. I still think it looks good, fine tuning a short entry.

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  27. SPX has been so strong that I have to consider that it is heading for 1340 right now. If it hits that level tomorrow, then that is when I want to be shorting Silver optimally.

    SPX is a great short at that level, Silver also, VIX long. So I'm going to remain patient. The squeeze seems to be on.

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    1. Also, you thought Silver would decouple from the SPX, it hasn't and it looks like you don't think it will based on this comment.

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    2. Back in December I had a bullish pattern for Silver. I was confident that it would rise. For SPX I was bearish. So yes, I did think they would decouple. The mkt has told the story now clearly, and they are correlated. So I was right for Silver, but my explanation as to why it would rise was not.

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  28. Keep an eye on this. Won't be exact, but likely similar.

    http://tinyurl.com/72olp2r

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  29. How many investors think gold and gold stocks are going higher here?

    Take a look at gold. Climbing sure, but declining volume and the 50dma within a breath of crossing below the 200dma.

    Next look at GDX, daily chart looks exhausted to me, then look at the weekly chart. If that isn't a rounded top with multiple head and shoulders patterns then I'll give it away.

    Seasonally it is a strong period for gold and silver, but the the question begs what happens IF the market collapses.

    DJIA bullish % index is now over 95%. Sure the market can rise whilst the % reading is in the 90's for a while, but history tell's us that when it is at this level, the market usually corrects very hard at best.

    I suggest that gold and gold stocks are signalling more than just a hard correction this time around.

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  30. Zigzag....which index is this? snp? so you dont see crash until may...unlike your expectation of march..

    Thanks

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    1. It's the S&P index. March should be a pause just like the mid January cycle. October is likely to be the major peak. Looking for a low later this month before the next run up to the mid March cycle..

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    2. HI ZIG ZAG
      OCTOBER 2012 could be just like 2007, and 2013-2014 similar to 2008-2009, but that's a long way off for most short term traders to even think about. FOR now we will settle for a minor setback next week.
      DO GET READY FOR ONE VERY BULLISH MARCH, once FEb is over. more later,
      Jaywiz

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  31. I'm still short Silver from $33.50 and have to think we get some sort of correction, so I am going to stay short.

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  32. I also think that tomorrows non farms payroll report will suprise to the downside, so I am also calling a short term top on the SPX with the next move down from here.

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  33. NDX opened strong, and I think SPX may manage one final pop here. Also agree, it is very close. Tomorrow does look weak in my cycle analysis.

    The SPX plan from last weekend has been playing out. The whipsaws earlier in the week made it tricky to navigate.

    Silver may also manage a final pop to top out short term. Upside looks very limited. So I have been waiting to short, but it is getting close.

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  34. SC, if you not shorting at 34 or not comfortable shorting then I guess my call for touching 200 day MA will hit sooner or later this week...I don't see anything stopping silver to touch 35+ after breaking 34

    What do you say?

    Thanks

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  35. Silver is due for a pullback imo. Maybe $34.50. I am bullish for Silver in Feb though. Target is $38 for the futures, but I am not expecting that until late in the month.

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  36. I'm comfortable shorting Silver, but I am also fine tuning for a short entry.

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  37. There is the pop in Silver.....where do you see it ending?

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  38. SC,

    On daily chart you can see 35 and up written all over....so may be there will be push to hit top BB on daily..

    but agree will have to come down after that, I would think that this could be the POP you have been looking for and then it will go straight to low 20's

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  39. AGREE with SC for POSSIBLE final surge today, but its NOT a necessity. MY EKG does show it as likely, but Ive shorted gold at 1pm, and will add more if it closes up, and silver at 34 or higher.
    Today has exhaustion written all over it
    expecting the next 7 tr days to sell off into FEB 10th.
    strong deflationary influences LEAD the way to the 11th, satday.
    Jaywiz

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  40. Jay i see that you are pretty confident in your system and i hope you have stops in place! Surprises are to the upside!

    The main motto these days seems to be : "the beating of bears will continue until morals improve!!!" What a beginning of the year, another excellent contra move. No bears will be left around by the time the real deflationary storm hits! The longer this continues the more it makes sense.

    I am confident now that there will be no crash calls when it comes.

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