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Saturday, February 11, 2012

TVIX - Timing Cycles and Price Target Geometry

VIX went parabolic on Friday as expected in the analysis from last Saturday, Feb 4th.  Therefore, TVIX went parabolic, and it was mentioned Friday that parabola's do not "end well" with price anticipated to fall. 

Price fell into the close as expected.  Monday, price should settle back to at least the 38.2% retracement near $18.30. 

The price geometry specifies a surge up next week to a minimum target of $23.50.  Inverse VIX futures products such as XIV are available as well.  

15min Chart















The following is the chart posted last weekend on Saturday, Feb 4th:

"A bullish wedge pattern appears complete for TVIX as of Friday, with a minimum of $21 to maximum of $23 targeted for next week."

The analysis proved accurate with the bottom date called by the timing cycle, and the minimum $21 target for TVIX hit on the date specified.

30min Chart

39 comments:

  1. SC,
    THANK YOU FOR GOOD UPDATE :D
    CAN please add. "QQQ" on your view and cycle analysis.
    $COMPQ IS REALLY STRONG.. WHAT DO YOU THINK?
    http://niftychartsandpatterns.blogspot.com/2012/02/qqq-weekend-update.html

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, I have done extensive work on QQQ. I have charts ready that I have been saving for a while. Nasdaq 100 is the most exciting index for 2012. Surprisingly large moves coming for the index.

      The index will soon be a regular part of my commentary because of the opportunity coming this year.

      Delete
  2. Thanks for your update, SC. Would you also review the silver picture soon? The TF Metals Report just issued a warning flag for silver. http://www.tfmetalsreport.com/blog/3375/warning-flag-silver
    It seems match your picture. Any thought?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, will do Roger. VIX went wild on Friday, but both Silver and S&P were flat.

      I see a quiet day Monday, and Tues/Wed a surge up in the VIX again. This week both Silver and S&P should decline sharply with VIX surging.

      Friday's parabolic rise in the VIX was an early warning.

      Delete
  3. SC, I discovered your blog only after buying a ton of HVU on Wednesday (then nibbled on Thursday and Friday morning!). Looking back at your 2012 posts on the TVIX Stockhouse thread, I am truly impressed by your accuracy on this one. Congratulations! I look forward to your updates both here and on Stockhouse. Since I only have access to HVU (no US dollar account) I will not be participating in the flips to XIV; however, If I can ride this spring volitility bull when it rears its head, like now, I will be one happy camper. Good luck and good trading. Kevin

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    Replies
    1. Thanks Kevin, happy trading. The long/short volatility trade is going to be excellent in February.

      This is only just the beginning...

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  4. NDX weekly looks interesting when using the 2011 March low. That bottom green cycle was helpful to me in finding the October low.

    http://tinyurl.com/79p899p

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    Replies
    1. Thanks Zigzag, could you explain this chart where is next low? to me next low seems to draw a bigger line from 2010 Feb to 2012 Apr/May

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    2. Hi Steven...Next low should be end of February or early March. We're hanging up here for a bit longer than I thought. I'm still in the bull camp for the rest of the year.

      http://tinyurl.com/7trqo47

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    3. Thanks Zigzag, so far you are all right~

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  5. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  6. Thank you for sharing your analysis. To make clear myself, is better to buy TVIX around $18 on Monday then hold until $23 Next week then sell. Then buy again at next deep then hold all the way to the top,is it right? In advance, thank you very much.

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    Replies
    1. VIX/TVIX are set to make a series of whipsaws in February. So this month is a trader's dream come true.

      I have a very specific plan as to what happens after that second peak at $24.70. Much larger moves....will update later.

      Delete
  7. SC whats your lows target on the spx for this week?

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  8. This week, gold and especially silver are expected to be very volatile ! Trades will be really exciting !
    SC, I must confess your analysis on precious metals is really impressive ! Congrats

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    Replies
    1. Thanks, my large scale Silver pattern should work well for years. The little movements are always tricky to predict exactly, but on a larger scale it has been excellent.

      Exciting time for precious metal traders.

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  9. SC, I see a surge up for precious metals on wednesday. Does it make sense with your analysis ? Share you view please !

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  10. S&P futures up as anticipated Friday. Lower high and trade lower into the middle of this week. Still expecting to test 1289-92 SPX. I don't think we make it there this week but the following week.

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  11. I said that I see a surge up for precious metals on wednesday because it is the Fomc meeting; the thing is everytime during the fomc meeting of the Fed (on January 3rd 2012, on November 22, October 12, April 5, May 18, July 12,....), Silver rose !
    Why will this time be different ?

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    Replies
    1. Ok interesting. A dip for the metals looks likely short term. Dips are opportunities. I'm still very bullish for both this month, and plan to accumulate.

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    2. Minutes from the previous meeting will be released on Wed., not the meeting itself.

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  12. Yes Sqroot, I was talking about the minutes realeased ! Everytime, the minutes beat market expectations, pushing downward the dollar, so pushing upward precious metals !
    Moreover, on Thursday, Bernanke talks, it is also bullish for gold and silver. So my plan is the following :
    Monday : bullish then bearish in the second part of the day
    Tuesday : really bearish
    Wed : bullish
    Thursday : bullish
    Friday : really bearish

    At the end of the week, gold and silver should post losses !
    SC, what do you think ? I really appreciate your view !

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Let me look closer at this today, thanks.

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  13. Sc,

    With the gap fill of today how does that change the charts and targets.

    Do you see a spike past you target into the 30' this next round

    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. I debated for a while on Sat how far it would retrace. Looks like it is 61.8% retracement to the $16.90 area.

      That next spot at $23.50 still looks about right.

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    2. Bang on, its there now. Good stuff SC.

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  14. Pullback in VIX quite big this morning, so I bought 6000 more shares of HVU.T @ 10.25. Ten minutes later and it's at 10.50 already. I would not be playing with this if the share price were in the 30's, mind, but at these levels it sure seems a good bet...

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  15. How do your price targets correlate for HVU? Bought back my half position of HVU that I sold Friday at $10.26...

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  16. Samaras, the other Greek leader who agreed to the austerity measures and is likely to be elected in April, is already stating that he will look to renogotiate the austerity measures........something tells me this will spook the markets and the ride back up for HVU could start shortly...

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  17. A pop to $10.90 HVU could be next today. Generally though it is likely to settle back from there and I don't have high expectations for early this week.

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  18. If TVIX trades up to $17.90 I'll sell and look to reload lower.

    I don't have high expectations for it early this week. Later in the week, yes.

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  19. SAM, at the risk of arousing derogatory comments from ONE person here, I really have to tell this group to check out the Jaywiz EKG - getting better & better all the time. DO your own review- IT CAUGHT last week every day IN ADVANCE as well as today's open and is NOW showing tomorrow's open at the public page at the blog- Jay

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  20. Hey Jay, what are your thoughts for silver this week ?

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  21. SC, it appears the VIX has overshot the retracement to the downside (more than 61.8%). How does this affect your expectations, if at all? Now that I have had my baptism by fire, I see why the VIX is not for the faint of heart!

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    Replies
    1. I was debating how much it would retrace on the weekend, and it has retraced deeply today. It does not affect my target price at $23.50 for TVIX.

      However, the stronger market rally will take time to dissipate so my timing for the target is going to be pushed into next week as a result.

      Delete
  22. Thanks for the quick reply! We shall see what the rest of the week brings, though I think the optimism over Greece is a bit much, and hopefully short lived.

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    Replies
    1. The next few days look much weaker for the markets imo.

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  23. If you expect deep pullback on Wed/Thu then why did you sell your TVIX at $18.23 today?

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  24. Looking to buy back around $17, but you are right could have also just held tight.

    Tomorrow morning could be firmer for the markets as suggested by my cycle analysis.

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