Pages

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

$SPX - Ready to Decline

The pink midfork has been providing support to this rally.  The next midfork test will likely fail thus starting a decline.

The cycle analysis turns negative for SPX today.  This negative trend for the cycle continues into early March.  Finally, there should be sustained selling pressure.  The orange and blue trendlines are initial downside targets.

30min Chart

107 comments:

  1. The analysis is also bearish short term for Silver as mentioned yesterday. I am watching $34 for a pullback on the Silver futures.

    A decline for SPX is in tune with Silver. This is when Gold can hold firmer without as much dip as Silver.

    ReplyDelete
  2. aapl hit the 540 target too pretty fast. Wonder if that holds.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Yes, AAPL will be important to watch today.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Gold and silver getting hammered.
    I wonder, is this it, or is the market just toying with us again??

    ReplyDelete
  5. Every time Bernanke speaks interesting things happen. Now why can't the spx have a real sell off like gold/silver! Hedge funds would have a heart attack if the SPX just fell as much as gold.

    ReplyDelete
  6. That was more selling than we've seen in a while for SPX intraday. Maybe one final attempt now, and head lower.

    ReplyDelete
  7. My initial 1378 target for the top hit almost to the penny, now a sell off. This looks like it may just be it... finally. I'm short @ 1376 with a 1390 stop.

    ReplyDelete
  8. SC, silver went down to $34. Are you now long on silver ?
    Thanks

    CONGRATS for your forecast on precious metals, it's kinda magical !!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. A little more downside may still be possible, but what a move for Silver!

      Delete
    2. Do you have any target in terms of prices and time ?
      Thanks

      Delete
    3. Just looking it that now. Once I review will have some targets.

      Delete
  9. good god.. talk about getting taken to the woodsheds ... #silver
    yikes


    And spx still hasn't really dipped.. COMe on

    ReplyDelete
  10. Yes Silver is cooperating but not SPX!

    ReplyDelete
  11. Same as always.. Real money has to be suppressed. At this point I wouldn't be surprised if the S&P was green by the end of the day. But definitely hoping not.

    ReplyDelete
  12. Silver is down with huge volume so I would be careful before jumping on long side...today is the record volume compare to last few weeks.

    ReplyDelete
  13. TVIX is extremely disappointing. We seem to get a sell off and no one is hedging? It's even going lower? Doesn't make sense. I guess cause AAPL is holding strong. All that matters.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It has been so far but it should see a pop I would think. I bought some UVXY just now at $5.37. It looks like it could see $6.30-40 to me soon. TVIX numbers are tougher to pin down.

      Delete
    2. Did you sell your TVIX to buy UVXY? I've thought about it, but just continue to hold. Waiting for that pop. Thanks.

      Delete
    3. I have been debating that, but I'm going to give TVIX a chance. At the same time I am charting UVXY to get a feel for it. Potentially TVIX could bubble and work out better than UVXY, but it is more speculative due to this premium issue.

      Delete
    4. Hi SC and others

      Here is my thought on UVXY over TVIX.

      Right now if you switch to UVXY from TVIX, you gain that 10-15% premium locked in.

      If you switch it later like when they start to print again. You have a chance to hold that 10-15% premium, or you lost it.

      So basically is a gamble.

      Personally I took that locked in premium, cause is a win, and no lost chance.

      But if you like to gamble, then stick with TVIX, cause you have about 50% chance to gain and lost

      Thanks!

      Delete
  14. I'm still holding 23,000sh. TVIX @ $17.35 and am REALLY hoping for $30. Do you still feel good about that short term (by that, I mean days to a couple weeks) possibility? Maybe I'll sell on any little pop over $17.50. It makes me nervous. THanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. dang Ratandrea

      that is a boat load of tvix.

      how is your sleep at night?

      Delete
    2. LOL. Not well... I thought I'd try something different on the recommendation of someone, but really I don't think this is for me. I've read soooo many things about the TVIX thing, and it just makes no friggin' sense to me.

      Delete
    3. now i am more confused you have that many shares, was that before you read up on it or after? i am hoping before, cause i wont touch it if i read stuff on it first.

      Delete
    4. i did not know anything about it. just did it on a whim while waiting for another stock to pullback. i should have played TVIX a bit smarter, however, and sold at $17.50. .15 on 23,000 shares is decent. But then i thought you know alot of folks are sayin' it's gonna pop, so here i sit.
      i will admit i know not what i should probably. i have just been fortunate to have some $$ to "play" with. i normally swing trade NEI and PEIX. i have long positions in MO and in PM; although, i just sold those cuz i think market is gonna go down since it's been going up so much.

      Delete
  15. TVIX has potential here, but it is speculative. For now, a short term moderate pop is a better way to look at it rather than anything huge.

    ReplyDelete
  16. It feels like we are finally getting a sentiment shift. No 3pm rally is a good start. Hopefully a follow through into tomorrow. AAPL is the last to fall.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It finally looks exhausted... AAPL hanging in there, but even so NDX is leading down.

      Delete
  17. SC, I will write note on you every morning! that worked better than anything...LOL

    ReplyDelete
  18. EMINI

    This will be interesting cuz I do not have this cycle top until the window of March 9th with this as a dip!............I have a very close stop now on my shorts! Best,jon

    ReplyDelete
  19. Sp'1315/20 sure would be a nice starter level. I never really use those pitchfork things, they do look good sometimes though!

    Good wishes!

    ReplyDelete
  20. ZigZag, great call.
    not a sure thing yet.
    but today makes it promising.

    Tea Time!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Looking good so far GG :-)

      Check out the weekly INDU. It has potential double TTrouble.
      http://tinyurl.com/7476yer

      Delete
    2. Certainly convincing.
      so, do you expect a few weeks pullback (down)?
      and if so, can we look for a counter-cycle?

      http://i41.tinypic.com/316upg8.png

      Delete
    3. We should know by the close on Monday if that INDU weekly is going to work. I'm thinking that we could have a drop similar to last Feb-March, which would get us a few weeks of down.

      Next date I have is around March 26.
      http://tinyurl.com/86d6aup

      Delete
  21. Zigzag

    When your mirror image was not correct..........2/14,2/15 top and 2/27 bottom, do you at that time look for other turn dates with no cycle in mind! Not quite sure where you go at that point when you posted.......looked like you were showing another turn date! Rhanks, jon

    ReplyDelete
  22. Hi Jon..The larger path is likely higher for this year and that mirror chart is mostly a guide and won't be exact on the dates. It works best when price moves into the direction of the dates.

    It looks like we have probably hit a short-term peak from those charts that I posted yesterday. My guess is a move lower will probably look like the one from last March

    ReplyDelete
  23. zig

    Thanks for your response........I guess what I am seeing is "turn dates" rather than cycles! Would that be correct in the way you are looking? Thanks again! jon

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, as long as price is heading in the same direction as the dates. Overall the market should be a bullish year. After the elections is when things will likely get bad.

      And I'll bet that we see a big push higher if we can hit that early April date on a good low.

      Delete
  24. ZZ, if this is the correction we are looking for, what is your price target?

    thanks

    ReplyDelete
  25. I'm watching for a move similar to last Feb-Mar, which could get us down to 1,280.

    ReplyDelete
  26. ZZ

    Thanks I guess the confusion is in "turn" dates is there is always another as we have seen.............I believe we will continue to move lower after April! Best, joed

    ReplyDelete
  27. SC, I think silver will go down to max $33.
    What do you think ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Maybe it bounces a bit first, but it probably will undercut that low. Yes $33 may be about right. Once it bottoms out, my analysis is still bullish to $38.

      Delete
    2. SC, if you are still bullish for silver then SPX is not ready to decline!!!

      Delete
    3. Both SPX and Silver can see a moderate decline short term. Then a bounce. I think it is best to look at them separately anyways because as we saw yesterday, the correlation between Silver and SPX is there but pretty weak.

      Delete
    4. So what I am saying is that this is the setup for a moderate decline. I agree that it does not look ready for a large decline yet.

      Let's take it one step at a time.

      Delete
    5. Technically Silver already posted a nice decline. SnP indicators are bouncing just like they did on the way up.

      Max pain seems to be right now in a run away move higher.

      As crazy as it sounds but i would not be surprised to see a rally above 1400. 50 handles higher to 1420 area. I give this 2 weeks into the Bradley turn. This will be ultimate short squeeze and perfect level from which we can back test the break out.

      Delete
  28. SC, I believe you man...Keep up the good work...

    I forgot to add comment in morning, so let's see if market turn around from here....LOL

    ReplyDelete
  29. AAPL is looking tired short term anyways. Slightly down now.

    ReplyDelete
  30. SC, Do you think S & P will top out at 1376?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It looks toppy here. Decline next, then a solid bounce is what I am suggesting.

      Delete
    2. DO YOU MEAN A BIG DECLINE OR A 1% DECLINE
      AND THEN BOUNCE

      Delete
    3. A sizeable decline. The cycle analysis is negative day after day now. Should be on the way soon.

      Delete
    4. what do you think will be the catalylist to make the market go down

      how long do you think this will grind
      i have never felt so sick in my life as i do with this market

      Delete
    5. These deals in Greece are still unsettled. Greek default is possible in an unorderly fashion.

      It's a drain when the market is like this. Not much action, but it should pick up soon.

      Delete
  31. What happened suddenly silver spiked...40 cents!

    ReplyDelete
  32. Something to remember..........that this day is an inside bar in both Silver and SnP!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Jon,

      Can you please explain in plain english...LOL I am too new to understand this technical terms.

      Thank you

      Delete
  33. SC, I would like to know if you expect silver to drop shortly this week or next week ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Sometime during the next couple of days.

      Delete
  34. This could hurt the bears http://goo.gl/mWlc6

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Interesting... thanks for passing this on. Perhaps this explains today's almost full recovery from yesterday's pullback.

      Delete
  35. looks like this market is just never gonna fall lol

    ReplyDelete
  36. SC its safe to say the 1040 target on the S&P is out of the picture for the next 6 months id say ya?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Actually, I believe it is still valid. There are some very powerful facts supporting this outcome. I'll expand on this soon.

      Delete
  37. http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/4862/dowc.gif

    ReplyDelete
  38. http://img338.imageshack.us/img338/462/dow2.gif

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Interesting approach Jon! Thanks for the charts.

      Delete
  39. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Bobo, look at the big picture, Pay attention to what miners and dollar are doing!

      Delete
    2. oops replied to wrong post.

      Delete
  40. In my opinion, silver is not expected to drop to $33.
    Have you seen how strong silver has been after the raid ?
    Silver contrats have declined just a little so this is really bullish.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Bobo,

      On Wensday 220 million ounce of silver contract dumped within 30 min. you saying that is small?

      so what you see for silver?

      Delete
    2. I was talking about open interest.
      Only -1089 silver contract whereas silver went down by 6%.
      This is bullish.
      Silver has experienced a few raids so far (for exemple in september). Each time, silver went down for a few days. Today, it's different (only one day). Each time, open interest for silver declined a lot. Today, it's different.
      Maybe silver will consolidate, but just a little. I do not think it will go to $33.

      Delete
    3. From my point of view Silver has potential for a slight lower low between now and March 7th. After that, bullish again to $38 or even overshoot that level.

      Agree, that was a one day wonder for Silver. It looks ugly, but the chart is still bullish.

      I have a BIG plan coming for Silver....

      Delete
  41. SC, there are still no signs of major weakness!

    NAS, SPX both look fine. BKX looks strong! Where do you see negativity??

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. This market is definitely testing us. TVIX just keeps heading lower. Frustrating for sure. I don't know what can change this? Some really bad news? Even semi bad news gets bought up.

      Delete
    2. Mike, testing? Strong move up that should have been respected. We were not flirting with weakness, we were strong for freaking 2 months.

      If 200 points up does not make it a bull i dont know what will. SC was going to buy into the weakness anyway! So it is a bull on a 1 year scale!

      Delete
  42. We haven't seen much weakness yet. Doing a lot of hovering lately. In my work March 7th is a potential low. March 14th is a potential high. I plan to do an in-depth update on March cycles on the weekend.

    One thing is for sure, there will be much more action in March than we saw in Feb!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SC, there was plenty of action in February. To the upside if you have not noticed!


      March im afraid will be a whipsaw, driving bears crazy.

      Delete
    2. Sure, there was upside but Feb was a slow grind. Throughout the summer/fall we used to see similar gains in 1 or 2 days rather than a month.

      Delete
  43. Eric Hadik has MAJOR(ie multiple), cycle convergence 5-9th March

    ReplyDelete
  44. http://img853.imageshack.us/img853/1701/goldth.gif

    ReplyDelete
  45. Hi SC,

    You said that "From my point of view Silver has potential for a slight lower low between now and March 7th."
    So sorry to ask this but I need to make sure about lower low that you consider 33.83$ or 26.15$ ?

    Thank you in advance.
    RB

    ReplyDelete
  46. SC, on Silver you said that"Silver has potential for a slight lower low between now and March 7th" Where starting point up?
    Is between 33 and 34 possible?Any idea?According to me,it's starting on Monday.And When coming big plan for silver.
    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  47. Also, what should be the target price for Silver by the end of the month?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well I do see another push to $38 or a little higher this month. Mid month.

      Delete
  48. We could see in the $33 range for Silver next few days, but then rise again sharply.

    The big picture charts for Silver will be coming soon, early March.

    ReplyDelete
  49. The Russell 2000 seems to be showing signs of weakness. Sign of things to come?

    ReplyDelete
  50. Oil is in the flag pattern targeting 135 by mid summer. This is where bigger downturn in the markets will become possible IMO. Max downturn for Oil is around 98 if it is to remain in this flag pattern. From here its only 8 points down. Not that big of a correction! With articles coming out about foreign countries CB's buying into stock market directly we may just get a huge buying frenzy into summer 2012!!!

    SC, You've turned bearish way too early! The funny part is in the summer i believe you said - short this market and it will wipe you out. Exactly what you are trying to do here. Should have been looking for a long entry with your cycle work and not turn every scenario into bearish one.

    ReplyDelete
  51. Yes, I did warn about that in Aug/Sept. Remember at that time the talk was all about a 2008 style crash, P3 etc... My symmetrical patterns suggested that would not happen, and it didn't.

    Turned bearish early, but this is not the right configuration to be bullish imo.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SC, im afraid you have a biased opinion towards this market. Markets have shown over and over that one has to adopt.

      Delete
    2. I do an equal amount of trading both bullish and bearish so I have no bias in that sense.

      I stick to the facts within my system.

      Delete
  52. SC sorry;
    in December,You have seen that silver's target will be $38.We saw you're rıght(because it had $37.30 at least on Tuesday).After coming new target $38 and falling down, you say another rising for silver in mid March.İnteresting,because my researchs signs the same rising and this second rising continues by the end of April or early May.That's why may we say that silver is bullish market in coming months (at least by May)?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Once Silver bottoms soon, then a rise to $38 perhaps slightly higher is next imo in March. I'm expecting something quite interesting after that... Chart is coming soon.

      Delete
    2. Something quite interesting? Are we talking about the POS over 40$ perhaps for the near future?

      Delete
    3. It is better not to get too far ahead of the market. Let's let things setup here first, and then can go over the longer term pattern and reasoning.

      Delete
  53. RUT has been weak since early Feb. RUT did not make it to the 2011 high.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. "I do an equal amount of trading both bullish and bearish so I have no bias in that sense.

      I stick to the facts within my system."


      I see. You have no problem posting here that decline is next and then taking the opposite side of the trade. Good to know.

      Delete
    2. No, absolutely not.

      I am simply saying over time I make an equal number of bullish and bearish trades. Looking back to 2000 there has been equal opportunity for both bears and bulls. It's a traders market.

      Delete
  54. What fricken joke. Yelp valued at almost $1.5b and they haven't even made a profit. Welcome to 1999 people.
    Irrational exuberance is back and alive and well.

    ReplyDelete
  55. Oh and I take it everyone has heard the Ann Barnhardt interview?

    Boy I'd hate to cross this women in a dark alley. She is calling a total financial collapse of the US.

    http://www.netcastdaily.com/broadcast/fsn2012-0104-1.mp3

    ReplyDelete