tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post6589392620724406473..comments2024-03-28T11:33:25.049-07:00Comments on Cyclical Market Analysis: AAPL - Parabolas Never End Well - Apple CRASH SetupSChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comBlogger34125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-50280663565574619182012-02-13T13:15:37.567-08:002012-02-13T13:15:37.567-08:00TVIX looking ugly after hours. Just hope it rebou...TVIX looking ugly after hours. Just hope it rebounds next couple of days at this point.Mikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04702069559513729745noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-74789163511832342562012-02-13T11:59:07.620-08:002012-02-13T11:59:07.620-08:00No problem as they constantly roll the futures to ...No problem as they constantly roll the futures to have an average all the time.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-56307333135262325502012-02-13T11:48:13.729-08:002012-02-13T11:48:13.729-08:00"February VIX futures and options expire at W..."February VIX futures and options expire at Wednesday’s open. February VIX options are last traded tomorrow, while the February VIX futures are last traded in Wednesday’s pre-market session, from 8:00 – 9:15 a.m. ET"<br /><br />SC, what impact will this have on HVU/TVIX?SS76https://www.blogger.com/profile/05254142166449670930noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-31656968371752337092012-02-13T11:30:18.620-08:002012-02-13T11:30:18.620-08:00By the way I am not overly bearish on Apple. It i...By the way I am not overly bearish on Apple. It is still a great company, but the reality is that it is due for a deep correction. The cycle is due.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-2409198114534872312012-02-13T11:17:22.962-08:002012-02-13T11:17:22.962-08:00The Media is really hyping this Apple hitting $500...The Media is really hyping this Apple hitting $500 today. So very likely Apple dips a few days first, and then surges up to complete that parabola at $544.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-34336019830183688592012-02-13T11:02:37.392-08:002012-02-13T11:02:37.392-08:00I don't see much downside $16.40 or so for TVI...I don't see much downside $16.40 or so for TVIX maybe, today may be best. Markets look weak for next few days and TVIX should have a good pop into the $18's.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-34580447937366089582012-02-13T10:59:58.036-08:002012-02-13T10:59:58.036-08:00SC, Where are you looking to buy TVIX/HVU? I sto...SC, Where are you looking to buy TVIX/HVU? I stopped out of my half position I bought today at breakeven, now wondering to buy back before days end or if tomorrow will give me a better buy point?SS76https://www.blogger.com/profile/05254142166449670930noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-37778734501827459632012-02-13T10:58:02.914-08:002012-02-13T10:58:02.914-08:00SPX analysis will be out today. SPX ready to roll...SPX analysis will be out today. SPX ready to roll over imo, and head to 1330 level around Wed. I plan to cover shorts there and reload on a bounce.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-73265057744334242752012-02-13T10:09:18.313-08:002012-02-13T10:09:18.313-08:00I wish I would have taken profit earlier today act...I wish I would have taken profit earlier today actually. It seems it may dip a little $16.40 or something, but I plan to hold for a few days.<br /><br />$18.25 looks likely tomorrow/Wed.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-76056681619657513062012-02-13T10:00:50.461-08:002012-02-13T10:00:50.461-08:00If we don't get much movement in TVIX are you ...If we don't get much movement in TVIX are you considering holding overnight? Wondering about another gap down, although it seems less likely to me. Thanks.Mikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04702069559513729745noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-55996175649716012592012-02-13T09:46:51.600-08:002012-02-13T09:46:51.600-08:00Apple looks ok today but not super strong. Keep i...Apple looks ok today but not super strong. Keep in mind that this parabolic move for Apple is occuring on a daily time frame. It could dip for a few days, and then continue the parabola upwards for days afterwards.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-26257399135355231192012-02-13T09:44:44.836-08:002012-02-13T09:44:44.836-08:00Let's keep an eye on what they are doing. May...Let's keep an eye on what they are doing. Maybe they will cover some shorts on a pullback for th metals this week.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-79890372492997585962012-02-13T09:20:53.643-08:002012-02-13T09:20:53.643-08:00SC, im just going by your parabolic theory that in...SC, im just going by your parabolic theory that in 4 weeks gold would rally 300$+ and silver IMO would have to rally to at least 40, i'd hope to see some positioning, what i see is commercials increasing short position in silver and small/large specs increasing longs, we know how that works out for them.<br /><br />http://img829.imageshack.us/img829/7034/cotsilver3579331.pngAMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16653995150217130058noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-62231451566958380922012-02-13T09:01:58.542-08:002012-02-13T09:01:58.542-08:00The commercials will build up short positions befo...The commercials will build up short positions before the tops. They are not sensitive to pick tops exactly. As long as they feel they can profit in a reasonable time frame, then they will build up the positions.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-60541061357648096722012-02-13T08:45:04.169-08:002012-02-13T08:45:04.169-08:00SC, i still think there will be no disconnect betw...SC, i still think there will be no disconnect between metals and the market, if market dives, gold and silver will too.<br /><br />Looking at the last COT, commercials are increasing short positions in metals. In the spring last year, if you look at the options activity a month before april silver top - its very revealing what commercials did, i do not see them going long now, im sure they would love to pile on another parabola one more time.AMhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16653995150217130058noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-9724660833506108572012-02-13T08:06:40.221-08:002012-02-13T08:06:40.221-08:00Are stocks doing a large rounding distribution top...Are stocks doing a large rounding distribution top now ? Seems like several cycles cresting here...the classical horizontally up and down wash behaviors.Timerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06791098996226709854noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-68961471400692588082012-02-13T07:59:56.657-08:002012-02-13T07:59:56.657-08:00Middle part of the week around Wed does look weak ...Middle part of the week around Wed does look weak to me.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-52187449805154589462012-02-13T07:37:41.831-08:002012-02-13T07:37:41.831-08:00I think you mentioned that you see Tuesday and Wed...I think you mentioned that you see Tuesday and Wednesday being very negative, which should be good for the VIX....This would make sense because the Greeks have until Wednesday to come up with the additional $325 Million in savings.....Not likely I don't thinkSS76https://www.blogger.com/profile/05254142166449670930noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-56947896685965442952012-02-13T07:31:32.288-08:002012-02-13T07:31:32.288-08:00Yes, in that area.Yes, in that area.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-69040264395057861352012-02-13T07:29:43.042-08:002012-02-13T07:29:43.042-08:00Approx $10.90 HVU?Approx $10.90 HVU?SS76https://www.blogger.com/profile/05254142166449670930noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-49334336096477373102012-02-13T07:28:45.457-08:002012-02-13T07:28:45.457-08:00XIV would have been great on Friday...XIV would have been great on Friday...SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-39596986791784033062012-02-13T07:21:37.901-08:002012-02-13T07:21:37.901-08:00If TVIX trades up to $17.90 I'll sell and look...If TVIX trades up to $17.90 I'll sell and look to reload lower. <br /><br />I don't have high expectations for it early this week. Later in the week, yes.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-45767510238328782412012-02-13T07:20:46.862-08:002012-02-13T07:20:46.862-08:00Good stuff. I bought HVU at $10.26 but wasn'...Good stuff. I bought HVU at $10.26 but wasn't sure where your TVIX calculations fit with HVU, just figured when TVIX got to your price, then HVU must be there also.<br /><br />Samaras, the Greek opposition leader likely to win the April elections, just stated that he will look to renegotiate the austerity terms "imposed" on them. Markets should love that.SS76https://www.blogger.com/profile/05254142166449670930noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-5160022362544550812012-02-13T06:22:01.487-08:002012-02-13T06:22:01.487-08:00Bought TVIX at $16.94. Just above the 61.8% retra...Bought TVIX at $16.94. Just above the 61.8% retracement.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-19301544580510416522012-02-13T06:07:12.180-08:002012-02-13T06:07:12.180-08:00Pleased to see the market higher this morning. I ...Pleased to see the market higher this morning. I have a small short, and looking to build it up. I may short NDX. Also, TVIX.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.com