$SPX - Another Plunge Coming

The Cycle for SPX showed a bounce coming into the Orange arrow Cycle high.  That has now occurred.  Last week saw the strongest 1-week bounce in the last 2 years!!  That is an impressive confirmation of the Cycle!

SPX has met the target for the Orange arrow high.  A small dip is probable soon even though little more than some bouncing around prior to year-end is likely.

The Cycle shows a plunge into the Blue arrow Cycle low.  The December low for SPX is very likely to be retested in January.

60min Chart

Before:

60min Chart

SPX Cycle:

$SPX - Cycle Analysis Shows Volatile Swings Ahead

Volatility is likely to continue for months in SPX.  The Cycle shows a trading range forming (red lines) for months ahead.

SPX made the sudden drop to the red arrow in October.  Currently SPX is near the green arrow Cycle low. 

The Cycle suggests a bounce soon to the orange arrow.

60min Chart

Cycle:  Current location is marked with the green arrow.

$VIX - Cycle Update

VIX is at the gap, and also near the trendline.  Therefore, a bounce for VIX is likely soon.  It might fill the gap first though.

It was an exaggerated spike in October, but it is apparent that the Second Yellow Arrow low is ahead.  The August high for VIX was too flat.  The spike in October fits the Cycle much better even though VIX overshot the blue arrows with surprising strength.

Expect some bounces, but VIX should see lower levels tested to form the Second Yellow Arrow low in the Cycle.

Daily Chart

VIX Cycle 1:

$VIX - Low Due in 1 Week

VIX made an exaggerated spike up in October once it broke above the red resistance.  VIX is now back under the red resistance.  Therefore, some short term downside for VIX is likely.

An important low for VIX is anticipated due in 1 week.

S&P Cycles were mixed in October.  There were short term cycles in October that were quite negative, but some were surprisingly positive.  The result was a very choppy month.  In contrast for November, the Cycles turn extremely negative and remain consistently negative for S&P throughout the month.

The large scale VIX Cycle is heading much higher into December.

Daily Chart 

$SPX - 2014 Target

Next, there is likely to be a 2-3 day bounce only for SPX.  The rest of October looks choppy and can see 1800 tested later in the month.  Bounces will be typically sharp.

November is setting up to be the weakest month.  Cycles are extremely negative for November.  The selloff is anticipated to take another 6 weeks to test near the major trendline. 

The low is due late November to early December.   

4day Chart

UVXY is likely putting in a short term high.  It should cool off for 2-3 days to test the blue support which is the August high.

The up trend for UVXY is forming and it is early.  Another 6 weeks of upside in this trend is anticipated.

Daily Chart

UVXY is likely putting in the green star high currently.  Each bar is one day. 

$VIX - Just the Beginning

VIX did break out above the red line resistance.  According to the VIX Cycle this is just the beginning. 

However, the market will likely calm down next week as some consolidation is due next.  Sideways next for a week or so.  Then, SPX is likely to weaken and continue to grind lower later in October.  

The Cycle suggests a much weaker November and December with VIX accelerating higher.   

Daily Chart

 

VIX Cycle 1:

 



 

UVXY is starting to warm up.  It's testing the blue resistance and previous peak in Aug.  Look for a small dip next week to backtest the breakout.

 

Expect a grinding up trend to develop.  Larger pops are due late in Oct, and it will be choppy.  It should surge much more smoothly in November once all the resistance is cleared.

 

The up trend is developing.  Targets are in the $70 to $80 range for 2014, and $175 to $245 in 2015.



 

Daily Chart

UVXY is likely developing an up trend similar to below.

 

$VIX - Second Yellow Arrow Low

It does appear that the Second Yellow Arrow Low is in place.  As well, VIX pushed up quite strongly from the low giving confidence to the Cycle continuing to play out.

VIX is currently testing and finding some resistance at the historical red line resistance.  VIX will likely be choppy for a few weeks next as it can continue to test the resistance before breaking out in late October.

The Cycle shows a massive spike up into a December high.  October looks moderately weak for the markets with a downward bias.  November is likely to be the worst month according to the Cycle.

Daily Chart

Before (Aug 1 chart analysis):

Daily Chart

VIX Cycle 1:

$VIX - Cycle Update - Timing!

VIX found resistance and has been declining from the recent high as predicted by the VIX Cycle.  The Second Yellow Arrow low is due in September according to the Cycle.

More importantly, the Cycle shows a massive spike up occurring from the Second Yellow Arrow low.  The First White Arrow high is due in December!     


VIX Cycle with direct comparison to VIX Daily:

 

$VIX - Nearing Cycle Spike High

VIX is testing the red line currently.  VIX may overshoot the red line by a few points, but is nearing a Cycle high. 

In the Cycle, the level of the blue arrow highs was powerful resistance.  Therefore, around 20, is likely to be strong resistance for VIX. 

Most importantly, the Second Yellow Arrow low is due later this year.

Daily Chart

 

VIX Cycle 1:

 

Silver - Cycle Update - Large Decline Due

The Silver bear market is likely to resume with the next leg lower due in the Cycle.  A steep plunge is shown in the Cycle down to the green arrow.

Targets are $13 for Silver and Gold under $1,000 at the next green arrow low.  Ultimately, the bear market Cycle target remains at $6.50 and another 3-4 years lower.   

2day Chart

Silver Bear Market Cycle:

$VIX - Cycle Update - First Yellow Arrow Target Reached!

VIX completed the three blue arrows, and has, in fact, declined as predicted by the Cycle.

The first yellow arrow target has been reached both in terms of timing and price.  VIX should be near the yellow arrow Cycle low currently.

Next, the Cycle shows VIX advancing up to test approximately 16's near the red line again.  In accordance with the Cycle, it will likely be a violent spike up for VIX.  Timing is anticipated to be due late July.

4-hour Chart

VIX Cycle 1:

$VIX - Cycle Update - Three Blue Arrows

The blue arrow Cycle high appears to be complete.  The Cycle predicted the VIX high would consist of three spikes.  That has, in fact, been the case.  The Cycle continues.

Therefore next, VIX should decline short term to the yellow arrow Cycle low.  VIX around 10 looks possible for the yellow arrow low.

The Cycle suggests a volatile summer ahead though.  Assuming the Cycle continues to play out at the current pace, the first yellow arrow low is due in a month or so.

4hour Chart

VIX Cycle 1:

$SPX - Major Trendline to be Tested

SPX is peaking with a decline anticipated for the rest of the year.  The current market is simply quite overextended, and exhausted.

In contrast, VIX bottomed in March of 2013 - a year ago.  VIX has been rising for over a year, and that is a clear warning signal.

A decline for SPX is likely to be choppy with significant bounces on the way down as it corrects to the trendline from 2009.  A 250 point decline is estimated for SPX from the current level, and that represents a 13% decline.

3day Chart

$VIX - Forecast Update

VIX held the support level specified in the VIX forecast.  As well, VIX also surged up last week in tune with the rise shown in the VIX forecast.

VIX tested the midfork on Friday, and some mild resistance for several days could be expected.  Short term, the next high is targeted for VIX late this month.

Overall the VIX Cycle shows an elevated VIX for a couple more months.

60min Chart

Forecast:

2hour Chart

$VIX - 2 Month Forecast

VIX is currently finding support at the turquoise fork, and around the pink support line.  It is a very strong level of geometric support for VIX.

The trend is likely to remain up for VIX for several more months according to this Cycle. 

Therefore, SPX is due to hit a high within a few days, and a several month downtrend for SPX is forecast into May.

2hour Chart

VIX Cycle 1:

$VIX - Cycle Continues - Blue Arrow

VIX reached the target area and blue arrow Cycle high.  Currently, VIX is near the pink support. 

The Cycle shows two more peaks coming.  The next peak is due in February and another in late March or April according to the Cycle. 

Therefore, VIX is likely to find support soon and rise sharply to the next peak.  The next peak for VIX may even be slightly higher than the blue arrow.

2hour Chart

VIX Cycle 1:

$VIX - Cycle Continues - Update

VIX formed the purple arrow Cycle low.  The result was a breakout for VIX above the white trendline. 

Next, VIX should be rising to the blue arrow Cycle high.  Unlike the past spikes for VIX, this time VIX should remain elevated as the blue arrow high forms over a period of 1 to 2 months. 

VIX is testing the red resistance currently, and may need to consolidate somewhat before continuing to rise up to reach the blue arrow high.

2hour Chart

VIX Cycle 1:

$VIX - Large Move Due in Symmetry

VIX has been flirting with the white and red trendlines.  The VIX Cycle suggests a move above the white trendline from 2008 is imminent.

VIX has been trading higher since March of 2013, and clearly that warns of declines ahead for SPX.  A large move is due in the symmetry.  

4day Chart