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Saturday, December 13, 2014

$SPX - Cycle Analysis Shows Volatile Swings Ahead

Volatility is likely to continue for months in SPX.  The Cycle shows a trading range forming (red lines) for months ahead.

SPX made the sudden drop to the red arrow in October.  Currently SPX is near the green arrow Cycle low. 

The Cycle suggests a bounce soon to the orange arrow.

60min Chart
















Cycle:  Current location is marked with the green arrow.


















35 comments:

  1. Hold on, hold on! Last July 22, 2013 you posted this exact chart and had a yellow arrow right around where you've NOW put a BLUE ARROW!!

    18 months and 400 spx points are you now trying to move back the timeline?!


    Be interested in seeing your new UVXY monster chart which had UVXY at a blue arrow low last year at 8x current levels.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes that is correct. The SPX Cycle called the start of the "sharp rally phase" in Nov 2012. The sharp rally phase was correctly called but it lasted longer than I expected. That doesn't take away anything from the Cycle. It works extremely well for calling the large turning points and next moves in the market.

      The SPX Cycle is a large scale Cycle. The Cycle was correct in accounting for the sharp rally. I've been waiting for the "sudden drop" to occur. We saw that occur this October.

      We're coming up to Point A in coming months!!

      Delete
  2. Also for the record, the RED LINE on the chart was at 1500 spx which is about 300 pts lower from where you've now placed the "new" red arrow!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes the sharp rally phase in the Cycle was correct, and the name was fitting. It was sharp and long lasting. More than I would have thought.

      Delete
  3. VIX

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. joe...your VIX forecasts have been on the money...that gap is going to be filled sooner rather than later...let's see what happens after the FOMC meeting on Wednesday...thanks for posting

      Delete
    2. Tx! Price was turned away again into time today after chasing stops! Best and Happy Holidays to all. Life is fragile!

      Delete
  4. Took profit in UVXY at $30.85.

    ReplyDelete
  5. UVXY should drop to around $21 next. Looking for XIV entry...

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hi SC, well done for your work. I had a look at your cycle and it seems that the S&P may reach a low of 1950 before bouncing back.Do you agree? Tomorrow is the FOMC Meeting, maybe this will be the catalyst. The macro picture is quite frightening as Russia is under hard pressures. Equities are not the best place to be in the short run. Thanks for your views.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you!

      Yes, the Cycle shows a roughly 50% retracement from Dec high to the Oct low. We're very close to that right now. Therefore, the low for SPX should occur soon.

      Delete
    2. SPX should do ok in the coming months. After reaching Point A then it deteriorates rapidly.

      Delete
  7. Thanks. Let's see if the cycle is validated by the coming course of events. It is true that US equities look safer than equities abroad, such as French equities for example. Best

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Well I think US equities are expensive, but they do look ok for coming months. The US was hit relatively the hardest in 2008 which is why they are doing relatively better than many other countries now. This relationship should hold true for a few more years but not forever...

      So the US is the best of the worst for now, which isn't exactly positive lol!

      Delete
  8. http://tinyurl.com/labxevf

    my identified target price for VIX ($22.49) has been hit...expect my target price for UVXY ($41.75) will be hit as well...

    SC...you have previously 'misinterpreted' your SPX cycle...you may want to remain open to the possibility that you are doing so once again...point A may have occurred on December 5, 2014...

    ReplyDelete
  9. I'm satisfied that everything is setting up according to the Cycle.

    ReplyDelete
  10. My plan remains to just trade the big gyrations until the Cycles have matured.

    ReplyDelete
  11. SC, are you expecting a lower high or higher high in s$p, when are u planning to sell XiV

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm not sure if the orange arrow will be higher or lower high for SPX. It'll be close I think.

      For XIV target is $34 to $36 this month.

      Delete
  12. EMINI

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  13. So A, you are expecting in March, from the chart looks higher high, around 2100 2200 what people have been saying

    ReplyDelete
  14. Yes I am expecting a higher high at Point A.

    ReplyDelete
  15. SPX up a few more days into probably Monday, dip a little, then up and peak around Christmas at the Orange arrow.

    ReplyDelete
  16. Quite a solid bounce for VIX off 16 today. I think we'll see 14 to 15 tested though.

    ReplyDelete
  17. Your timing has been perfect SC. Well done! If I look at your cycle correctly, the Orange arrow is a lower level than the previous high. So, you don't expect a higher high around Christmas?

    If I also read your circle correctly, the first months of 2015 look bearish and the stock market is likely to go down for a few months. Is that correct?

    Many thanks for your work. Best

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I expect we'll test the high for SPX around Christmas at the Cycle Orange arrow. Not likely much higher.

      The first week of January looks negative for SPX and the Cycle shows a drop from Orange to Blue into that time frame. I think the Oil/Russia situation calm for a week, and then unravel again with SPX plunging again into the blue arrow.

      It's a choppy market which is my favorite!

      Delete
  18. BONDS

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. VIX
      http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

      Delete
  19. This guy is also goodwith cycles www.tripstrading.com

    ReplyDelete
  20. I was wrong about oil in my post one month ago.
    Maybe in the future it will reach 52.70 gap from 2009.

    This blog is usually correct on a few calls...and then it proves to be incorrect for a few months after.
    I think it will be wrong on the upside and we will go into the 2100s (2130?) through January.
    The ECB meets Jan 22? Also China will pump stimulus if it needs to.
    We have one month of going up next.


    Be CarefulNovember 17, 2014 at 6:24 AM
    3 outcomes until Dec 31.

    a) correction to 1994, this is probably going to happen.
    b) correction to 1925, possible but not likely at all.
    c) correction to 1904, this will not happen. 7% pullback? would require a global catastrophe. will not happen. absolutely not.

    We will not close below 1925 the rest of the year, as stated earlier. What the VIX does is irrelevant, divergence...who cares? Breadth divergences across market will be of no consequence. Market sideways to mild down at worst. Best case 2070-2100 very soon.

    Once again, I expect this blog to post a bullish forecast until at least late January.

    Gold is not going below 1100 anytime soon. Waffle back and forth here or a tiny bit lower.

    Oil may touch 68-70 at worst.

    Look, the fact is ECB and BOJ will be firing money at any deflation threat for months to come (not to mention the interest rate control). Recessions will make them keep rates down...and apply all kinds of cockamamie stimulus plans. This idea that market breadth/"cycles" is going to offset trillions of dollars of global liquidity and zero interest rates is incorrect. Stop being logical.

    ReplyDelete
  21. if I am reading right, commercials went short big way
    http://snalaska.com/cot/current/charts/SP.png
    http://snalaska.com/cot/current/charts/ES.png

    ReplyDelete