In the Cycle, the level of the blue arrow highs was powerful resistance. Therefore, around 20, is likely to be strong resistance for VIX.
Most importantly, the Second Yellow Arrow low is due later this year.
Daily Chart
Saturday, August 2, 2014
$VIX - Nearing Cycle Spike High
VIX is testing the red line currently. VIX may overshoot the red line by a few points, but is nearing a Cycle high.
In the Cycle, the level of the blue arrow highs was powerful resistance. Therefore, around 20, is likely to be strong resistance for VIX.
Most importantly, the Second Yellow Arrow low is due later this year.
Daily Chart
VIX Cycle 1:
In the Cycle, the level of the blue arrow highs was powerful resistance. Therefore, around 20, is likely to be strong resistance for VIX.
Most importantly, the Second Yellow Arrow low is due later this year.
Daily Chart
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SC, June 8th:
ReplyDelete"Next, the Cycle shows VIX advancing up to test approximately 16's near the red line again. In accordance with the Cycle, it will likely be a violent spike up for VIX. Timing is anticipated to be due late July."
I'm going to buy XIV if VIX trades into the 19 to 20 range.
ReplyDeleteMost importantly I want to buy UVXY near the second yellow arrow low later this year.
ReplyDeleteFirst chart shows a series of lower lows and lower highs, second chart shows a series of higher lows and higher highs. Obviously two completely different trends. Your first yellow target should have been higher low. Instead it is lower low. These patterns are not the same and chances are will not work out the same way, based on the actual price action evidence so far.
ReplyDeleteSC, why is your second yellow arrow (circle) down in the 10's when in the cycle it looks like a higher low (11-12's?)
ReplyDeleteAlso, is vix supposed to hover around the red line resistance for a few weeks and then drop or ....?
I am a buyer of XIV $33 or less. This puts UVXY into the 40's.
The levels for the VIX have tended to be slightly lower as compared to the Cycle. Therefore, a double bottom for VIX at the second yellow arrow seems to best fit the historical pattern. Having said that I might start positioning in UVXY when VIX is around 11, and continue to add from there.
DeleteThis red line has been resistance for VIX in the past. Likely to see some bouncing around this level. I suspect VIX might overshoot and reach as high as 20, but doubt higher than that on this move.
So, yes, VIX can take some time here to complete this move.
The red line VIX resistance proved to be quite solid.
ReplyDeleteI'd be a buyer of UVXY in the $25's.
ReplyDeleteUVXY...the final (good) opportunity may be on the horizon...if so, one should be reasonable about entry price expectations...waiting for the second yellow arrow to appear later this year could prove to be a mistake...
ReplyDeleteVIX started rising mid-July whereas I thought it would start rising late July. So it did start a little earlier than anticipated, but obviously the Cycle has continued to be accurate with VIX now at the red line. VIX has reached the minimum red line target predicted by the Cycle.
ReplyDeleteAn overshoot of the red line is possible. Short term downside for SPX is possible, but the Cycle suggests we are nearing a low for the market.
Each red bar has taken about a month in the Cycle. Therefore, I am expecting a 2-month market rally to kick off soon - once this bottoming process completes.
We've already met our minimum upside target for VIX. I think SPX likely to hit a low next week. 1880's maybe..
ReplyDeletehttp://tinyurl.com/no7eauu
ReplyDeleteplease reread my August 5 post...a (good) opportunity to purchase UVXY should occur within days...keep in mind that the UVXY weekly trend is clearly up...the lows are history...
http://tinyurl.com/n56onaf
SPX bouncing for a few days then likely a lower low. A little lower to go yet imo.
ReplyDelete"8/ 11/ 14: The TAO 8 is a zeroed oscillator, now falling from its highest peak, yet for all of early 2014 favors optimism. All declines have been brief and bought. The Russell 2000, frequently a trend leader, has shown the greatest weakness. And now with the steepening TAO 8 decline will come increased pessimism, depressing events, social unrest, political instability and asset vulnerability. The emerging equity season will favor falling leaves, and the selling of rallies."
ReplyDeletehttp://www.schulzonmarketcycles.com/index.html
New highs coming this week. Too powerful.
ReplyDeleteSC, 1st VIX yellow arrow complete or another leg up to go (corresponding to spx 1880's)?
ReplyDeleteThe spike high is likely complete.
DeleteUVXY down to $26 then pop to around $33, then under $20.
$15ish at the second yellow arrow low.
Delete$15 UVXY @ second yellow arrow ...then spike o $150 first white arrow?
ReplyDeleteCorrect.
DeleteUVXY...Carpe diem...
ReplyDeleteSCAugust 4, 2014 at 12:30 PM
ReplyDelete"I'd be a buyer of UVXY in the $25's."
Bought this morning at $25 and sold at $28.25.
ReplyDeleteVIX will likely trade around this level for a few days then decline to 10's.
ReplyDeleteSC...once again, no disrespect intended...however, strongly disagree with your expectations for VIX and UVXY...good luck!
DeleteThanks Rotrot!
Deleteit won't be long before we know which of us is correct...the next 8 or 9 trading days should be interesting...
DeleteOther than the very short term our view is the same. This VIX Cycle is soon to turn extremely bearish!
DeleteSc , u think spx goes down for a few weeks ?
ReplyDeleteNo, SPX should rise for a few weeks next, however the fall season looks very weak for SPX.
DeleteThat's it for VIX. Obscene amount of money moving into AAPL today and out of BND bond etf. Bond rally is about to stop...too much selling on strength. Money goes into S&P...and europe money will also move to S&P. There will be no "correction" to 1800s, not this year. Maybe early winter 2015. This bull market is ferocious, it's established that time and time again.
ReplyDeleteThere is support here for VIX at 13.50. Should pop to 15 next, then decline reaching to 10's around end of month.
ReplyDeletehow high do you think s&p will go if vix is at 10
ReplyDeleteIt may flirt with 2,000 but more importantly this VIX model is soon to turn extremely bearish.
Deleteyou mean market bearish and VIX bullish? Thx
DeleteYes, market bearish.
DeleteSc, what happen to UVXY $26-33 prediction? Off table now?
ReplyDeleteStill possible, but probably only made it to $29 on Friday.
DeleteVIX bounced quite strongly, but UVXY only a modest bounce on Fri.
DeleteUVXY = ProShares Ultra Silver (ETF)????
ReplyDeleteYes SPX rising now for only short term. SPX rising for several weeks until VIX reaches 10's.
ReplyDeleteThe market rally kicked off and the VIX model continues to correctly predict the next moves.
ReplyDeleteThe rally should last another month or so, but much of the rally in price has already occurred. It'll be more of a grind from this point.
VIX is close to a rally...
ReplyDeleteinteresting that the rally only lasted minutes...regardless, the VIX is moving toward a meaningful change-in-trend...
DeleteNew chart and analysis posted!
ReplyDeleteShould be close to that level. Check out the new chart posted!
ReplyDelete