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Thursday, October 16, 2014

$SPX - 2014 Target

Next, there is likely to be a 2-3 day bounce only for SPX.  The rest of October looks choppy and can see 1800 tested later in the month.  Bounces will be typically sharp.

November is setting up to be the weakest month.  Cycles are extremely negative for November.  The selloff is anticipated to take another 6 weeks to test near the major trendline. 

The low is due late November to early December.   

4day Chart
















UVXY is likely putting in a short term high.  It should cool off for 2-3 days to test the blue support which is the August high.

The up trend for UVXY is forming and it is early.  Another 6 weeks of upside in this trend is anticipated.

Daily Chart
















UVXY is likely putting in the green star high currently.  Each bar is one day. 


77 comments:

  1. SC, would you comment on Gold's direction and possible path thru Jan 2015?

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    Replies
    1. Looking for Gold to drop some more to near $1,000 December, then a several month bounce to $1150.

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  2. Expecting a sharp rally 2-3 days to start soon, probably today.

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    Replies
    1. Looking to get into UVXY next week around $37 give or take.

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  3. Very positive for the market that XIV did not go lower today than yesterday even with UVXY seeing slightly higher today.

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  4. This should be the strongest bounce for the market Oct and Nov. Only lasting a couple days though.

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  5. Well done SC for your comments and analysis about the financial markets !
    What is your upside target for the S&P? Between 1900 and 1950?

    Thanx

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    Replies
    1. Thank you! Should see at least 1890 SPX in a few days.

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    2. Possibly a little more but best to be conservative on the long side, and starting thinking about shorting again.

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  6. SC I don't think we'll even get close. There is a massive amount of selling coming into any move near SPX 1860 and it intensifies above that level.

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    Replies
    1. Consolidating now, but tomorrow/Mon likely to be more positive imo.

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  7. Hey SC

    Thanks for the inputs these couple of days. For sure helping us little guys out. :)


    Cheers!

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    Replies
    1. You're welcome. Nice market action!

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  8. Hi Be Careful, 1900 is basically a day or two type of job which match SC a day or two big bounce. Are you in agreement with SC here?

    Cheers!

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  9. SC I altered my stance. i think this bounce is going to be very powerful and longer than a day or two.
    Check out the reversal on the DAX yesterday and the strength in Biotech and R2k.

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    Replies
    1. It's a little different situation for DAX and Russell imo. They have declined for months already and were leading down. So it's natural for them to be firmer now.

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  10. My outlook remains the same. Only 1-2 days left for the SPX bounce imo. Looking to exit longs and enter short today or Monday.

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  11. Replies
    1. Well my first block of XIV wasn't well timed so just fixing that. Now in a good position. I had to make some adjustment to my short term charts. Now I believe I have the right plan.

      Market is acting as expected today.

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  12. Probably small dip now for the market but rally into close or Monday.

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    Replies
    1. UVXY tested blue support as expected. Probably bounce a little here. The green support is stronger.

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  13. SPX 1890 and VIX 21 targets reached.

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    Replies
    1. Hey SC

      you not going to short with target reached?

      Cheers!

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    2. I am expecting rally to end Mon/Tues, but decided not that attractive to hold longs with upside minimal now. Might see a small dip sometime today for the market but I would rather look to enter short early next week.

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    3. I think we go lower than 21....backtest the old resistance of 18 seems likely....be careful

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  14. VIX

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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  15. Expecting the market to rally quite well today and tomorrow. Once that occurs then I'll be looking to go short.

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    Replies
    1. Hey SC

      you have any target on this rally for the spx?


      Cheers!

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    2. Tomorrow looks especially positive for the market in short term Cycles.

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    3. Rally to peak around 1925 SPX imo.

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  16. I thought about going long XIV this morning, but it's just better to focus on the short side. Best to be conservative on longs and aggressive on shorts. Until the large VIX Cycle high is due in December that is the best strategy. The big money is to be made shorting!! Any long profits are just a bonus.

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  17. XIV:UVXY ratio almost 1:1.... Time to swap out xiv for Uvxy

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  18. Hey SC

    we just hit 1924 ish, you in UVXY?

    Cheers!

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  19. Replies
    1. VIX has support now from the rising 50dma.

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    2. The low is due for UVXY in the trend Cycle.

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  20. Fri, Mon, and today all looked positive in short term Cycles, for SPX. Tomorrow looks weak. I'm not expecting much this week other than a small dip for the market tomorrow. Next week looks very negative - huge drop next week imo.

    Charts coming!

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    Replies
    1. SC, if there is no huge drop next week, will you exit your short positions?

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  21. There's not really a rush to short here. Tomorrow, Thurs, and Fri all look weak but more just some chop with a minor dip this week likely.

    I'm expecting a major decline next week and am now positioned for that.

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  22. Hello SC- I am wondering why you are excluding a higher high? It seems that the market has sufficient momentum to make a higher high?

    The catalyst will probably be the October FOMC Meeting (October 28-29) where the Fed will decided whether or not to stop definitely the QE3.

    Best

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    Replies
    1. Just to make it clear, I am not saying that the Fed will have a positive impact on the stock market. On the contrary, I am expecting the end of the QE3 at the meeting.

      However, if the stock market has to decline, it should be a good reason to short.

      With that being said, I'm not sure whether or not we will make a higher high. What is clear is that the market has sufficient energy, companies buy back their shares, so I don't know.

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    2. I don't believe much will happen this week. The rally has already occurred, and the yes the momentum will keep it from falling much this week, but it can't rise much either.

      Expecting a small dip for a couple days and just minor chop this week. Next week looks extremely bearish. Those looking for the Fed to rescue the market are going to be disappointed. Gold and Oil declining and really the market is too high anyway.

      Later on in my Cycles the market will rally just fine without QE. There is no need for it. It's done.

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  23. 1942, let's see what happens there.

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    Replies
    1. I looked at my charts but can't see the significance of that number...please explain...watching weekly right now and the monthly buy/sell line has now been crossed

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    2. 1943 is 61.8% retracement (fib level) from Sep high to Oct low

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    3. Thanks, be wary of FOMC meeting next week....

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  24. Too strong. 1963-65 next. VIX crushed.

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  25. Hey SC
    Do u have a uvxy target?

    Hey Be Careful
    looka like ur 17 vix has reached today and beyond. Congrats. U have a new low on vix still?


    cheers!

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    Replies
    1. UVXY $50 next week, SPX to retest the low near 1820 next week. Then break the low in November.

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  26. VIX is now stretched way too far on the downside. It'll likely snap up moderately for a couple days next, but nothing major will happen this week.

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  27. I don't believe much will happen this week. The rally has already occurred, and yes the momentum will keep it from falling much this week, but it can't rise much either. The market is balanced. Things will settle basically this week.

    Expecting a small dip for a couple days and just minor chop this week. Next week looks extremely bearish.

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  28. I bet today's rally surprised a lot of people.

    SCOctober 20, 2014 at 7:04 AM

    "Tomorrow looks especially positive for the market in short term Cycles."

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  29. SC, where do you think we are now?

    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-iKpalnSaTfM/U2-dbeDO6_I/AAAAAAAAB0U/8KjD7F4u72w/s1600/VIXCycleJan2014.png

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  30. Replies
    1. Hey SC

      Congrats SC on the profit, why not keep it till 50 till next week?


      Cheers!

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    2. Could've but I think can pick it up again around $30. Not expecting much to happen this week.

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    3. Hey SC

      UVXY is dropping like a rock, probably will reach your 30$ level tomorrow or friday at this rate.

      when do you see this 30$ level reach, this week or next?

      Cheers!

      Delete
  31. profit is always a good thing..cheers..

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  32. I'll be shorting soon. UVXY $45 to $50 next week. Very negative cycles about to start.

    Get ready for a big plunge!!

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  33. Where would the plunge take the SPX? Back to the 200 moving average? I would think decline would also take oil below $70. Hard to imagine now given the bullishness today, but who know what would happen next week!

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  34. Only 45-50? I thought uvxy was $70-85 target for first white arrow? Or was the first white arrow already hit last week (vix 31/uvxy 57)??

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  35. UVXY holding the 29 area was critical...intraday charts indicate there is an up move coming...the 31.78 area is first resistance...after that, it's the 33.90 area that needs to be taken out for a meaningful run to the upside...

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  36. VIX should hit 14s not long from now.
    S&P should stabilize in the 1920s, if we get that low. 20dma.
    Close above 1966 and 50dma and we're going way up, fast. 9% was the correction. It is over. Pretty normal stuff. Two months left in the year, there will be no "plunge" or any of that nonsense. This blog made a VIX spike call which was correct...but that's it, it ended. Drama is complete.

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  37. My projection from 3 weeks ago was slightly wrong:

    Be CarefulOctober 2, 2014 at 5:33 AM
    More likely scenario. 2019 to 1880 to 19xx to 1860 to 1950+ end of year. Not really that interesting....pretty normal action.

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    Replies
    1. actually it was wrong by 60 points on down move...that's a lot....
      drama is so far from complete that you might want to re rent this movie....guessing at numbers is a fools game...and empties bank accounts fast...Top is in, that's all you need to know...

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  38. Oct 24:
    Path forward is now 1967-1970 to 1925 to new highs and perhaps even 2100 by winter, inverse head and shoulders. Last year same thing, Aug lows..and Oct lows. Market got nervous about US Congress went to 1627 in Fall - then to 1850. This year 1820 to 2020 and beyond. I am a little cautious about Biotechnology...will you look at that chart!?????? Holy shite.
    To get our 1925, we have neg divergence on hourly S&P, higher vix here momentarily and the 50dma and weekly middle Bollinger in 1960s.

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