The first yellow arrow target has been reached both in terms of timing and price. VIX should be near the yellow arrow Cycle low currently.
Next, the Cycle shows VIX advancing up to test approximately 16's near the red line again. In accordance with the Cycle, it will likely be a violent spike up for VIX. Timing is anticipated to be due late July.
4-hour Chart
VIX Cycle 1:
Is Vix supposed to spike NOW and stay at 16 until July or stay in the 10-11's for the next month and then spike all of a sudden to 16 in July?
ReplyDeleteConfused.
VIX should be near the Cycle low now. There's three green candles coming in the Cycle next. That will take more than a month.
DeleteI think VIX will likely bounce up and down in the 10's to 13's range a couple times into July, and then spike up to 16's in July/Aug.
Ok, i see what you are saying, but those 3green candles, the first one looks like a gap up and the last one looks as high as the blue candles, so wouldnt a 12-14 range with a spike to 18-21 be reasonable?
DeleteIs 16 the target due to the failure of the last 2 blue arrows to reach 20 (truncated to 16-17 instead)?
Yes, you're right, it is entirely possible that VIX spikes into that higher range. However, best to be conservative for the 16's target since the last blue arrows were truncated. I feel confident that 16's will be reached, and that is actually 60% higher.
DeleteIf purple arrow was.in mid January and first blue arrow was early February, then I think spike in vix will start soon and end late july around 21? Vix green candle spike usually short lived?
ReplyDeleteThere is a lot of similarity with the current SPX and April 2010. Indicators are extreme. We should see the market start to dip and churn sideways this month, and then plunge into July/Aug.
ReplyDeleteRemember the flash crash in May 2010. We can see a similar plunge in July, probably not as fast/crashy of course...
The market is way overextended here!
Dare I say that the terms 'spike' and 'VIX 16' in the same sentence is laughable.
ReplyDeleteI'd love to play VIX long, but..whats the point? At best the mid teens, before another smack down.
To me..this is the same price action we've seen since 2012..and that has NEVER ended well for bears.
Regardless, good luck....you're gonna need it.
Sure but 16's is still 60% higher for VIX, and that is a conservative target. For a 2x volatility etf might see 75% higher perhaps.
DeleteObviously the Cycle becomes much more interesting at the second yellow arrow. One step at a time.
Just a little appetizer before the main course lol!
DeleteHey SC
ReplyDeletethe plunge in july is that the first green bar after the yellow arrow or the second or the 3rd green bar?
Cheers
The third green bar.
DeleteHi SC can you post your lasted SPX change and where you think we are at.
ReplyDeleteThanks
Ok, will post some SPX charts soon. Thank you!
DeleteWhat is your approx target for the Vix at the first white arrow and would you guess that would be hit in 2015 or 2016?
ReplyDeleteThe Cycle measurement at the first white arrow is 50 for VIX.
DeleteThe second yellow arrow could be reached about September, and the first white arrow is due late this year or very early in 2015.
We way I look at your vix chart.. we will drop 3 weeks by the end of June (first green candle) and zig zag for few weeks and drop further more to white candle by mid august. What do you think?
ReplyDeleteThe 3 green candles should take us into late July/Aug. The second yellow arrow is due about Sept. The first white arrow is due late this year or early next year.
DeleteAnything after the white arrows? You had a spx chart a few months ago with a P and Z target.
ReplyDeleteAre the white arrows the P or Z?
Yes, the second white arrow marks the finish of the P decline in my SPX Cycle.
DeleteThe Z move is much larger, and comes later.
Thanks!
DeleteMay 23, 2014 - The Déjà Vu Cycle
ReplyDeletePoints P & Z
http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2013_05_01_archive.html
Sc, do you have any gold/silver updates? Thks!
ReplyDeleteYes, I'll do an update on the metals shortly. Cycle for the metals has worked nicely.
DeleteSure enough, VIX popping likely into the 13's. It can see a little higher around 13.75 or so ideally.
ReplyDeleteSCJune 8, 2014 at 8:26 PM
"VIX should be near the Cycle low now. There's three green candles coming in the Cycle next. That will take more than a month.
I think VIX will likely bounce up and down in the 10's to 13's range a couple times into July, and then spike up to 16's in July/Aug."
Then probably back to test 10's or 11's again later this month. Strong support now in that range for VIX.
ReplyDeleteMaybe not quite that much. Some resistance around 13.30ish For VIX.
ReplyDeleteWhy will 10's be hit again this month? Is Vix still on the yellow arrow or moved into the first green arrow?
ReplyDeleteGood question. I do think it is on the green arrow now.
DeleteHowever, I believe based on some other short term Cycles I am using, and technical analysis, that the first 2 green arrows (after the yellow arrow) are likely to be rather shallow and choppy.
The third green arrow should be very aggressive.
Therefore, I am expecting little more than some chop for VIX into late July as it firms and strengthens. The third green arrow spike due late July or Aug I think.
So VIX may be range bound 10-14 for a while here. Let's see...
DeleteHey SC
DeleteYou plan to do any trading still? looks like your last UVXY bought base on the record above is like 60.79, with current price is like almost 50% drop on it. Also with short on 1867 spx, with current price it almost 100 points upward from that short price.
Cheers!
I'm going to be building up short positions this month.
DeleteLooks like vix gonna break 15 this week and 18 by next week.
ReplyDeleteHey Tradergurl
Deletewith today's VIX drop, really doubt we will ever hit 15 this week on VIX. with all these news headline on all the crisis in the world, VIX seem to be heading back to record low today. Even SC is saying we range bound between 10-14 for a while here. You saw something different?
Cheers!
VIX should see down another point to 11 again this week.
ReplyDeleteUVXY lower low next around $26 to bottom out at that level. I plan to buy that, should be excellent!
Hey SC
DeleteVIX already at 11 ish. You thinking VIX heading to 10 before UVXY heads to 26 ish?
Cheers!
Hey SC
DeleteVIX below 11, ended at all time low of 10.61. UVXY not yet reach your target area. Are you planning on borrowing a mortgage soon to buy?
Cheers!
UVXY looking very good. Just fine tuning things at this point.
DeleteWhy should uvxy be excellent? What would be the price target? I wouldnt assume anything higher than $40-44 and thats assuming the VIX reaches 16's.
ReplyDeleteYes, I agree $42-$44 is a summer target.
DeleteYou will see 9.80 on the VIX sooner rather than later.
ReplyDeletePlay the DIPS!!!
ReplyDeletewell done SC...we hit the multi year low today...still more to go..I guess we will see below 10 on VIX early next week...cheers
ReplyDeletevix 10.60 now .....going under 10 to clear out every vix long to death
ReplyDeleteBased on todays price action either we're still at the yellow arrow or the pattern has failed.
ReplyDeleteSignals
ReplyDeletehttp://tradingtweets.wordpress.com/
HI SC, any views on Gold/Silver after the rebound ?
ReplyDeleteI'm getting bearish on metals. I'll show the Cycle and why.
DeleteWhen will uvxy bottom in $26?
ReplyDeleteVIX back into 10's next then 13, then 11, then finally spike up to 16 or more. This should take a month at least...
ReplyDeleteHey sc. Like to know so which arrow or bar are we currently on with your chart setup? It abit confusing when you mention yellow arrow target reach, which was 10 something at the time assuming, then you mention above we heading to 10 again? The yellow arrow red bar looks like it follow by a green bar that suppose to have a pretty big gap difference and it goes higher afterward, it doesnt show the first green bar heading near the yellow redbar again.
ReplyDeletecheers
Hey sc. Did you buy that 26ish uvxy today. Looks like your target hit today.
ReplyDeletecheers
Not yet, planning to next week.
DeleteYes, agree it is confusing...though I always assumes those were bi-monthly bars so day to day fluctuations would not be noticible.
ReplyDeleteYes, that's the idea. I use other charts for finer detail. I have a small scale Cycle that I am using now too.
DeleteThat work suggests we have formed a trading range in the 10 to 13 range.
How much longer in this 10-13 trading range before the big pop?
DeleteIt would be interesting to see the finer cycle compared with the big picture.
VIX pop to 13 next then dip to 11's. VIX is slowly firming up.
DeleteThis could take 3 weeks. Then spike up into the 16 to 20 range.
13 next? I thought 10's first....or are you satisfied 26 uvxy target hit today?
DeleteYes VIX hit 10.92 today. Expecting 13 soon.
DeleteHi!
ReplyDeleteIt is first time here, so apologize for this questions:
You can say how I study and get some good knowledge?
If no, I understand.
Can you at least suggest some books or similar?
Congrats for the good work.
I am going to read after find this great site.
Thanks
Joao
Thank you!
DeleteThere are good books out there, and can learn some methods. However, I have developed my own analysis with proprietary Cycles.
If we take until August to bottom out that should put TVIX in the $2 range.
ReplyDeleteSc, have you purchased UVXY yet or still waiting?
ReplyDeleteWill VIX make new low or was 10.34 it?
I think the concern of a lot of people is 1) how accurate is the cycle and can you prove it is accurate 2) vix is about timing mostly similar to buying insurance before a natural disaster. What makes you so sure that you can predict the next natural disaster/major event? Insurance companies make money knowing they collect money monthly with the occasional payout. 3) if your theory plays out, are you able to stay solvent or even break even until then? (short sellers in 2000 selling at $50 lost their shirts when the stock went to $300 before going to $1) Also, pharmaceutical companies for example, we might have friends working within the companies so that an acquisition or new drug delivery we can hear our friends say how they strike it rich with their employee stock options and we can buy some stock based on that. Our odds are "favorable" to make money. What makes you so sure that you can make money based on vix? The smartest people I know involved in vix are never one directional either up or down and seems to buy/sell spreads at least the quantitative ones graduated from top technical universities (e.g. MIT).
ReplyDeleteThose are all excellent points for discussion.
DeleteThe Cycle has predicted all the highs and lows as shown for the last year (it goes back further too). I think it is amazing that the Cycle predicted 3 peaks at the blue arrows, and VIX did exactly that!
I don't think that this Cycle predicts natural disasters, but rather a large decline ahead in the stock market. The stock market is largely misunderstood. The significant moves in the stock market are not driven by news. The market is driven mostly by Cycles. The Cycles drive the news. Good news at tops, and bad news at bottoms.
In the case of this VIX Cycle, at it simplest it predicts when people will become greedy or fearful and to what extent. In May I posted that VIX should decline to 10 with the Cycle showing a decline in VIX. It did exactly that.
There is room in the market for all types of traders and strategy. Yes many trade VIX based on spreads, but obviously then miss all big moves in VIX.
The large spike in VIX up to the white arrow is due to start later this year and continuing into next year. Will the Cycle continue? Wait and see. It makes for a good trade because timing is coming up soon.
Vix hits 9's today. Too low for cycle. I don't see how they can match up given the lower lows in reality vs. higher highs on cycle chart?!
ReplyDeleteVIX just retesting the previous low in the 10's. VIX 12 to 13 coming up next.
DeleteVix 13 coming up next .... as in next week?
ReplyDeleteDifficulty I see will be with UVXY already 10% below 26 target. The move to 16 will only see return to $36-38 ( down from 44 two weeks ago).
Impossible to see any return on uvxy until backwardation appears (white arrows). Until then more decay for 6 months.
Who said Aug for the next low?
ReplyDeleteVIX likely to test above the 50dma which is 12.07. Probably see 12.50 or so this week.
ReplyDeleteSure enough, the little Cycle proves accurate again. Just a test above the 50dma, first since April. Higher to go - 13 shortly.
DeleteMy little VIX Cycle suggests that VIX is near a short term high in this 12.50 to 13 range, and dip back to test 10's later this month.
ReplyDeleteNo this does not appear to be the start of a correction quite yet. The correction is due to start late July to first week in Aug according to this Cycle. Likely continuing into a Sept low for S&P.
After that the market should rally quite well for a few months while the VIX Cycle forms the second yellow arrow low.
Once the second yellow arrow low is complete later this year, well then it's crash time. A 500 point crash is indicated from that mature Cycle.
Are you still expecting vix 16 late july/aug? Has uvxy target changed from low 40's?
ReplyDeleteAlso second yellow arrow is that in the Vix 10 again or more extreme 8-9?
No I'm expecting VIX to start rising from a low late July to first week of Aug. VIX to reach the 16 plus level Aug to early Sept timeframe.
ReplyDeleteUVXY probably heads lower later this month, but it can rise 100% from that low. Low $40 remains a good target.
10's or 9's for VIX at the second yellow arrow low.
Well at the second yellow arrow low for VIX, that will be a significant high for S&P with a large decline to follow.
ReplyDeleteHowever, that is not the long term peak either. The peak will occur after that decline, and then VIX should make a higher low at that time.
how high will s&p on 2nd yellow arrow
ReplyDeletecan u please post gold chart
ReplyDeleteYes, have one coming.
DeleteAfter the second yellow arrow in the VIX Cycle, the market decline looks similar to summer 2011. That is the P decline in my S&P Cycle.
ReplyDeleteAfter the final peak, the market is due for a much larger decline. That will be similar style to 1987, and that is the Z decline in my S&P Cycle.
I'll have updates showing how these Cycles all fit together as they progress.
SC, the second yellow arrow, how high can s&P go
ReplyDeleteSC, the 500 point decline in your S&P cylce, is it the P decline or the Z decline? You seems to imply that it is the P decline, i.e. a 20-30% correction. If so how big is the Z decline? It looks much larger than the P decline on your chart. So if P is 500 points, are you implying a drop of more than 1000 points in S&P eventually?
ReplyDeleteYes, the P decline is measured to be about a 20-25% decline. Keep in mind the market should recover after the P decline occurs according to the Cycle.
DeleteThe Z decline is years away and much larger than the P decline. Yes it'll drop 1000 points and more. There is no recovery after the Z decline, and there are more declines after the Z decline in the Cycle.
Sc, nice call on Vix 13. Now back to 10's to fill the gaps???
ReplyDeleteThank you. VIX 13 was reached, and yes back down to 10's for VIX.
ReplyDeleteHi SC
DeleteDo you expect new market high for this vix 10? and when you think will that target reach?
Abit confused here then:
“””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””
SCJuly 8, 2014 at 12:25 PM
No I'm expecting VIX to start rising from a low late July to first week of Aug. VIX to reach the 16 plus level Aug to early Sept timeframe.
“”””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””””
if we go to 10 now, does that mean your low in july mention above is the second yellow arrow? and then 16 is the what point in your chart? Or we not going to 16 anymore in that time frame?
Cheers!
this is not intended to be confrontational...the VIX is going higher in the next few weeks...by early August it could be considerably higher...
DeleteProbably we'll see a new high, and VIX low in about 2 weeks.
DeleteNo, In the Cycle VIX is just bouncing around the first yellow arrow low. VIX is likely to test 10's again short term, and then spike up to 16 minimum. 18 to 20 is possible maximum Aug/Sept.
Then drop from that level down to VIX 10's again for the second yellow arrow low.
expecting a lower high (lower than July 3) in the indices on or about July 15/16...then we may experience a quick drop into the August 4/5 time frame...after that, be prepared...
DeleteRotrot - be prepared for what??? A steep rally or a drop??
Deletequick drop to august 4/5 and after that be prepared means what, can u elaborate
DeleteGee no kidding Rose2797 - you must be a particle physicist -
DeleteThat's what Rotrot said.
Precious metals Cycle update posted!
ReplyDeleteIs todays touch at Vix 10.5 good enough or does it need to stay in the 10's for awhile? Hasnt been two weeks yet.
ReplyDeleteI think it'll take some time yet.
DeleteMaybe pop to 12 and dip to 10 for VIX...
DeleteVix 9's possible?
ReplyDeleteMaybe...
DeleteSVXY looking weak the last two hours today...
ReplyDeleteHeadfake or on the way to VIX 16?
ReplyDeleteWe already 15+, pretty close to 16 already. what next?
DeleteCheers!
Pretty close to 16 today
ReplyDeleteVIX back to 11's next I believe, update coming.
ReplyDeleteVIX heading lower for next week and a half to 2 weeks.
DeleteBUT VIX has already bottomed, and Aug looking for very bearish for S&P.
DeleteThe rest of July looks bullish for S&P.
ReplyDeleteHey SC
DeleteAre you expecting test of recent high for S&P or new high?
Are you entering any trade?
Cheers!
BPCOMPQ, NASI, & NYSI are trending down...NYAD daily & weekly are trending down...SVXY daily and weekly trends are down...still looking for a drop into the August 4/5 time frame...
DeleteYes a test of the recent higher or a slight new high is possible around the end of this month.
ReplyDeleteThe best opportunity to short will be around the end of July. I'm looking forward to positioning at that time.
In any case we still need the second yellow arrow low before any major upside happens for VIX.
ReplyDeleteI'm quite sure VIX is going to sink into a low around the end of July.
ReplyDeleteHow many more times does vix need to "sink into a low" before the first yellow arrow is complete? Hit 10's 3x already...
ReplyDeleteLol this is the the last one according to my little short term Cycle which has been very accurate. Not much longer to wait now...
DeleteVIX hover around 12 for next couple days then plunge to 10's next week.
ReplyDeleteUVXY heading under $20 next week.
Hey SC
Deleteyou plan to enter UVXY when it hit under 20?
Cheers!
YES, finally!
DeleteTiming end of July looks optimal.
DeleteSC...no idea what prompts you to make these calls...during the last hour of trading on Friday, July 18 did your system generate a buy on UVXY?
DeleteWe'll find out next week for sure. I would only change my mind if $30 is taken out on the upside next week. I think might only see a small bounce for UVXY for a couple days to $26 to $28, but then decline into month end.
DeleteLet's see how it goes next week! Things are getting interesting!! Aug looking very negative regardless.
Rotrot I haven't made any changes. Everything is still here.
DeleteSC, how high do you expect uvxy from 20
ReplyDelete$40 target for Aug/Sept.
DeleteHey SC
ReplyDeletehow low below 20 you thinking UVXY will go?
like zero?
Cheers!
Around $17...
DeleteOh i see. UVXY $20 next, then upto $40, then back to $15 for second yellow arrow, then FINALLY enter white arrow phase with $150 target.
ReplyDeleteYes, that's it.
DeleteHold on now, if uvxy is $17 next week, then the max upside would be $35 or so (not $40). Back to $10, Max upside from there would be $100 (or basically where UVXY was in February 2014).
ReplyDeleteNot very exciting :(
Well In Aug/Sept according to the Cycle we are expecting a 100% rise for UVXY. Then from the second yellow arrow to the second white arrow can rise another 1,000%. That is 2,000% profit total. That's fairly exciting!
DeleteI know what you mean, but more importantly this is just the P decline for S&P. The Z decline is many multiples larger, and an incredibly large move.
I seem to recall you saying that the Z move after P is 'years away'...like what 2020? Who could wait that long for UVXY?
DeleteOf course there is this dude who thinks TVIX is going from $3.5 to $9000!!! Lmao!
http://www.exceptional-bear.com/resources/Market+Letter+Jul+5$2C+2014++$24VIX+underpriced$3B+a+Century+of+quantified++Volatility.pdf
Yes, the Z move is years away, but only a few years, and the Cycle shows the trend changing to UP right now for VIX. The Cycle shows the S&P declining for a few years, and then plunging in the Z move.
DeletePayDay...Eduardo Mirahyes repeatedly pleads for votes on the StockCharts public list...however, he has inconsistent charts for the same indices; he professes superior 'pattern' knowledge and understanding yet he is repeatedly forced to revise his counts; he has been calling a top for months/years; and he fails to grasp the importance of 'time' when making a forecast...Dow 570/S&P 50 when? Why would you pay any mind to his forecasts?
DeleteYes i've noticed the a,b. a,b pattern getting quite ridiculous! Notbto mention it is mathematically IMPOSSIBLE for TVIX to get to $2000 at Vix 27. I dont think this guy understands how these instruments work.
DeleteEven if his most ambitious projections came true (90 vix) the most tvix would be is around $350 which is 10,000% return.
I only mentined him since his chart is similar to SC in that it predicts a small move next, drop to retest low, and then very high spike...though i question EM's targets. SC targets are more realstic.
Isnt it possible that the yellow arrow made its low in june, spike to 15's on Thurs and now making a SECOND YELLOW low at vix 10's this week?
ReplyDeleteGiven how in your vix cycle chart the green spikes only seem to last for a day or two, yet the red drops last for weeks & weeks....go figure!
No, I don't believe so. I was expecting a pop for VIX last week from 10 to 12. Instead it was exaggerated up to 15. I don't think VIX would have seen over 12 last week except for the terrorist event.
DeleteYes, VIX does rise fast, and declines very slowly.
No, he problem with Vix is that it rises fast AND drops fast, but only rises for a few hours but languishes in the bottom for weeks on end killing volatility instruments like uvxy.
DeleteEven inverse volatility like XIV suffer. One would think given UVXY 100000:1 r/s since 2011 that XIV would be up many multiple times with fwd splits etc but only up 1000%
The world has never seen volatility etfs perform in a bear market yet. Volatility etfs did not exist the last time we had a bear market.
DeleteThe future will be much more interesting than the past!
UVXY...did anyone get a buy signal today in the 12:00Noon-1:00PM time frame?
ReplyDeleteRotrot, i did...however SC says UVXY $17-20 next couple weeks....lets see how it works out.
ReplyDeleteif you trade UVXY it is important to monitor SVXY...SVXY has been trending down (daily and weekly trend charts) since after the market close on July 3...the daily squiggles and wiggles are designed to distract and confuse...
ReplyDeleteisn't SVXY just the direct inverse of UVXY? Of course its down since July 3. The VIX was 10
ReplyDeleteScott, no SVXY is 1x leveraged whilst UVXY is 2x leveraged which is why UVXYdrops faster than SVXY rises.
ReplyDeleteSVXY acts more like XIV as you can see they both have risen 1000% since 2011.
thanks PayDay, still its a function of the VIX futures, the same as UVXY but at a factor of -50% of UVXY.
ReplyDeleteI don't think its worthwhile tracking SVXY or UVXY. I think its better to look for extreme lows of the VIX and watch the contagion on UVXY, SVXY or XIV.
or to use technical analysis on the SPX.
Hey SC
ReplyDeleteuvxy didnt go under 20 like u mention this week. Do u still see it go lower into month end or u missed the chance of a life time entry?
Cheers!
SC, UVXY still on $17 target this week or yellow arrow finally in?
ReplyDeleteI think VIX dips to 11 this week. Let's see where that puts UVXY.
ReplyDeleteHey SC
DeleteStill thinking VIX to dip to 11 this week?
Cheers!
Not this week, because VIX just testing the high 15-16 first, then yes dip back to 11.
DeleteVIX is going to spike over 20, but not until later Aug, Sept timeframe. First dip to 11.
UVXY testing $29 to $31 resistance, then settle down again back to the lows early to mid Aug.
ReplyDeleteVIX just testing the high 15-16 first, then dip back to 11.
ReplyDeleteVIX is going to spike over 20, but not until later Aug, Sept timeframe imo. First dip to 11.
Hey SC
Deletethere is your 15-16 target on VIX, you shorting it?
Cheers!
I'm not shorting VIX here, but do expect it be hitting a high here 16 and to decline to 11's next.
DeleteSC...RSI (14) on the UVXY daily chart has cleared the 50 line...in my view, the best you can expect is a retest of the 50 line...the lows are history...
ReplyDeleteThe low may be in place for UVXY but I think $25 to $26 at least to be tested next.
DeleteThen $40 to $45 after that. Probably Sept.
Hey SC
DeleteUVXY is almost 35 today, 35+ in AH right now. 5 more point to reach your target of 40$, you sure it wont reach that first before Sept?
Cheers!
SC...apparently you and other readers of this blog discounted my July 22 post...no doubt about it, the UVXY low is in place...are you still hoping for $25 or $26?
DeleteIt could reach there. Check out the update today!
DeleteRotrot, good call on your part. UVXY did continue to rise.
DeleteI am more focused on the bigger picture, and will be more interested in UVXY at the second yellow arrow low for VIX later this year.
Quite simply I would buy UVXY when VIX dips to 11 and I will short it if it rises to 19's.
Deletewill that be the 2nd yellow than in a few weeks?
ReplyDeleteIs this the spike in between the 2 yellow?
VIX is making the spike up between the yellow arrows, but VIX should settle down next and spike up over 20. 20 to 25 to complete the spike in Sept.
DeleteThen VIX declines to the second yellow arrow late this year.
thanks SC
DeleteNew Updated VIX Cycle posted.
ReplyDelete