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Friday, February 21, 2014

$VIX - 2 Month Forecast

VIX is currently finding support at the turquoise fork, and around the pink support line.  It is a very strong level of geometric support for VIX.

The trend is likely to remain up for VIX for several more months according to this Cycle. 

Therefore, SPX is due to hit a high within a few days, and a several month downtrend for SPX is forecast into May.

2hour Chart
















VIX Cycle 1:











71 comments:

  1. Sc, so by May, in terms of S&P, where will you think it will be

    2nd question, yellow arrow on vix, means rally in s& p, will it take it to 2000 as some are saying

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    1. 1700 SPX or slightly below that level seems probable with a May low. This VIX Cycle does forecast a low for SPX in May and summer rally.

      Let's take it one step at a time and review in May. A summer rally does appear likely after a May low for SPX. We can review at that time and look at levels for SPX.

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    2. So no longer the mention of a crash just a dip to 1700 and a rally again?

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    3. Once the vix cycle reaches the yellow arrow then yes expecting SPX to crash.

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  2. 1. in may , where will it take s&P if vix 22, last time s& p reached 1760 only

    2, 2nd chart, yellow arrow in vix, there will be a big rally in stocks, can it take to 1960 to 2000 as some are saying

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  3. The volatility in the market that we have seen over the last month is only the beginning. This is a great trading environment and according to the Cycle the moves will continue to amplify as the year progresses.

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    1. That IS the point I would entirely agree with.

      We have already come close to breaking the 2013 high of VIX 21.

      There are very clear 'market tremors'..and these will get a hell of a lot stronger.
      -

      One day at a time of course, but VIX does have a fairly good chance of 30s this summer.

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  4. U expecting any topping level for this rally in spx.

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    Replies
    1. May see 5 or 10 points. I plan to go short next week.

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  5. Nice chart SC. So UVxY will be around 90's at the top of the zigzag?

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  6. Sc, do you have updated chart for gold/silver. Thinking of going short here.

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    Replies
    1. Let me take a look at that. I do plan to update.

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  7. SC, is this path you are expecting? Topping now at 1850 , then drop to 1700 level in May, then rally to maybe new high, then crash.

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    Replies
    1. That pretty much sums it up. Best to take it one step at a time of course.

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  8. sc, ur scale for vix spike is too narrow, its going to be bigger than ur zigzag there
    if no breakout in spx, market is going to tank big, if breakout, must be careful to see if its fake or real
    economic news are not great, market have no reason to go higher at this level

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    Replies
    1. The moves in VIX are likely to continue to amplify. Moderate moves now, and the larger moves will come according to the Cycle...

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  9. Vix not corfirming the ath’s in Es, this has not meant goot in the past. Well have to reverse sharply to confirm a sell, if it stars hovering and consolidating then the breakout its the real deal.

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  10. 1870 next.
    Look, don't short the indexes. Don't try to time it. There is a zero interest rate policy in place which speaks to all the tech mergers. Until the fed ups interest....GET OUT OF THE WAY. Simple.

    The vix futures havent even retested 13s yet.

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  11. Hi SC, expecting more upside here in ES ?

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  12. Hey SC
    Did you had a chance to short the market today? Or you are waiting for higher price?

    cheers!

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  13. VIX says S&P is going to collapse soon. Why? VIX is well above the January low, and now VIX is holding above the mid-Feb low. The turquoise line support is holding well for VIX.

    I'm looking to short S&P this week.

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    Replies
    1. dont get too overconfident and ahead of urself sc
      humble is the key

      vix has not confirmed a true reversal yet, i sold mine on a small profit, waiting for better price

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    2. but vix is coming soon, i can smell the blood in the air

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  14. VIX 12.84 gap to be filled soon. By next Monday most likely.

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  15. if vix gaps down on wed or thr, im going in with the etfs
    china will be on the news sooner or later
    hope i am right
    mark my word

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  16. Hey SC
    Did you had a chance to short the market today? Or you are waiting for higher price?

    cheers!

    ReplyDelete
  17. strange action in vxx, uvxy and vix. market up, but they are not down so much - not hitting new lows
    also, in past few days, market going up but bonds were up also

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  18. vxx, uvxy and vix not down much , even if market up and lot of people calling s&p 2100,

    also, in last few day, bonds going up even if market up

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  19. Yes exactly, S&P rally peaking shortly...

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  20. VIX spiking up according to the forecast. Expecting VIX to rise to 18-19 area over the next week.

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  21. Congrats SC on your uvxy purchase at 60.89. Are you planning to sell uvxy when the vix reaches 18-19 and rebuy later?
    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. Thank you! Yes, that is exactly my plan...

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  22. 18,19? God no, that was it today. This is just another small dip before 1880 within 7-10 days. Get out of the way, warned earlier.

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  23. Wow, actually this thing is much stronger than I anticipated. Vix gap 12.84 shortly. The rebound today is tremendous...new highs soon.

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  24. VIX support around 14. Here's my golden opportunity to short SPX!

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  25. Told you so. I'm usually right. Be careful. There will be no major pullbacks in first half of this year. No huge VIX spikes beyond 16. Back to 12 next. And 11s. I will be correct, again....yet another warning to y'all.

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  26. And even if you were to short...why in the hell would you do it before 1875-1885?

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  27. I disagree. VIX won't last down here for long at all. Slingshot for VIX coming right back up and soon. Agree though that the S&P will get a few more points and I will short soon.

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    1. Can you update us where you think we are on the Vix cycle 1? One bar after the blue arrow?

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    2. Yes, agree we are on the one red bar after the blue arrow.

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    3. SC, why do you think you have such timing accuracy, 1 bar? Going by the past timing error was huge - in many months. Why is accuracy now 1 bar?

      2000SPX is a big number that market participants want to see.

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    4. Simple, instead of using a large scale Cycle, I'm now using a small scale Cycle. The large scale Cycle is more important, but the small scale Cycle is better for timing.

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    5. Sure eventually we'll see 2000 but we're going down first.

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    6. so you finally gave in? you laughed when 2100 SPX level was mentioned as a target a year or so ago, now you are saying 2000 is a certainty.... So your model is long term bullish now? I thought you said this was not a bull market? Did not you expect bear market, crash, depression?

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    7. The large Cycle is extremely bearish. SPX is only a few hundred points higher than in year 2,000.

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    8. SC, we enter bear market when we cross back under 1575 on the SPX.

      Picking tops is a fools game.

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    9. SC, if your extremely bearish model is correct, then why are we 300points higher than 2000/2007 tops? Why did this "correct model " not predict such massive rally to record highs?

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    10. It's not about picking tops. It is about trading positive and negative Cycles. What number the tops turns out to be is trivial.

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    11. SC, so is push from here to 2000-2100 SPX ok with your large negative cycle?

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    12. The large negative Cycle isn't used to predict absolute price levels. Right now I am forecasting a several month decline for the market using the short term VIX Cycle amongst other methods.

      One step at a time.

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  28. i bought uvxy on today's dip because of the hammer on vix
    going to add more later with margin if goes down further

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  29. VIX 13.50 tomorrow for sure.
    Inevitably 13.44 will not hold. I repeat, 13.44 will not hold.
    Stay out.

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  30. The low for VIX was 1 year ago. VIX is higher now than January. That is why it is time to focus on the bearish trade.

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    Replies
    1. Bearish environment for coming months.

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    2. Hi Sc, Could you please clarify this up for me and everybody else here, so so we could understand your work better:

      At which point are we currently in the cycle, please look at the chart: http://i2.minus.com/i5Y168DNKULBI.jpg

      Thanks

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    3. We are at #1 in my opinion.

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  31. Hey SC

    You still waiting on your signal to short SPX?

    Cheers!

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    Replies
    1. Yes, fine tuning my short entry for SPX. I expect i'll be short very soon.

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  32. now im loaded with margin
    no turning back
    gl to all

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    Replies
    1. Hey Z.Q.

      Good luck with your buys. You buying UVXY on margin? or shorting the index with margin?


      Cheers!

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    2. buy uvxy
      but i do have my stops
      i will be watching the market carefully

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  33. SC, does each bar represent one week

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  34. VIX


    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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  35. something different with today's rally, rut and iyr , ibb down, vix refues to go down even if market is going high

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  36. SC
    r u rdy for a pop? lol
    cuz im rdy

    market needs to give some meat to the bears

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  37. VIX heading to about 19 on this leg. That'll probably take another week at least.

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  38. Hello SC , thanks for all your input and anaylsis
    This is an interesting link from Warren Buffet

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/buffett-id-surprised-stock-prices-120642587.html

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  39. Thanks SC! Still expecting UVXY 90's?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, I think can see $85-$90 this month for UVXY. VIX will be choppy but still some decent upside over the next week or so for this initial leg up.

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    2. VIX heading higher for months to come.

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