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Sunday, March 16, 2014

$VIX - Forecast Update


VIX held the support level specified in the VIX forecast.  As well, VIX also surged up last week in tune with the rise shown in the VIX forecast.

VIX tested the midfork on Friday, and some mild resistance for several days could be expected.  Short term, the next high is targeted for VIX late this month.

Overall the VIX Cycle shows an elevated VIX for a couple more months.

60min Chart
















Forecast:

2hour Chart


















47 comments:

  1. sc, in the first chart, your vix target is 21, it is 19 in second chart and you have been saying from last week? Which one is the latest target, that could mean 40-50 sp points.

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  2. sc, which one is the latest vix target? 19.2 or 21? That could mean 40-50 SP points.

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  3. I am raising my short term target to 20-21 for VIX. I expect some small dips and consolidation for VIX this week and another surge up the following week.

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  4. SC, where would you see SP500 be when VIX spikes up to 20 level later this month?

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  5. Market bouncing a little today as expected. This is because VIX found a little resistance at the midfork on Friday.

    Just a small bounce for SPX for a couple days and then slide down more and plunge into the end of March.

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  6. This will be a quiet week. Next week is when the action will be seen. VIX likely to start grinding up slowly later this week and surge up next week.

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  7. Get out of the way, again. New highs this week. Powerful rally has begun.

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  8. Let's see how we do in the 1880s this week.

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  9. Double BUBBLE ...

    http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/breakout/peter-schiff--frothy-ipo-market-a-bubble-for-the-1-204341369.html

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  10. bought uvxy again on top of previous 20% profit
    xiv drop to 20 on this correction

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  11. Nice clean head and shoulders on S&P. VIX can melt up soon...

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  12. VIX in 13s tomorrow. S&P to 1880s...new high this week

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    Replies
    1. lol, took ur profit on a loss yet?
      why not into the 10s too? or maybe even lower to 5s, lol
      clearly an amateur

      Delete
  13. Hi SC

    You have a target for UVXY on this drop with SP to 1810 or so?


    Cheers!

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  14. VIX
    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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    Replies
    1. Hi Joe,

      are those blue circles a target zone? are you looking VIX to land on 12-13 area? thanks in advance?

      Delete
    2. SIL

      In reality if you know time, it runs into price targets and tells you. My placements are in the area of price to watch but as I say if you know time it is not a concern. Those that talk about targets all the time, know very little or nothing about time! IMHO

      Delete
  15. VIX hit 13s yesterday as I said. And now 1880s for S&P. Step aside.

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  16. VIX

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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  17. VIX Trader Pays $8 Million on Bet Gauge to Rally 60% by May
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-03-18/vix-trader-pays-8-million-on-bet-gauge-will-increase-60-by-may.html?cmpid=yhoo

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. my question to everyone is: how big is his potential long position that it requires 8mil$ hedge? What could be other components of the trade THAT WE DONT SEE.

      Delete
  18. vix really disappoints me
    im out for a better price

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    Replies
    1. doesn't look good for vix bulls, my out was a right decision
      will be back in mid apr

      Delete
  19. After VIX 13.46 breaks..waterfall down to 12.50 quick. Real quick. Next 1-3 days.

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  20. Vix wont spike until vereybody has thrown in the towel and has fallen asleep at the weel. Anybody feeling sleepy ?

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  21. SC,
    What are you seeing now for vix and uvxy?
    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. VIX over 20 this month probably near 25 and UVXY around $90.

      Delete
    2. WTF!? 20/$90????

      I'm usually on board but I find that hard to believe.....

      ....will be a buyer at Vix 12.50 or less though...

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    3. I'm seeing signs VIX will spike up this week or next aggressively.

      The S&P is so weak it has lost momentum and taken months to grind up a few points this year. It's just simply exhausted.

      Delete
  22. Hi SC,
    Do you have any news about your VIX pattern? The correction is still near in your humble opinion? Thnx

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    Replies
    1. Yes, the market looks extremely weak, and has been struggling for months.

      VIX continues to look strong in the Cycle, has been holding for over a year, and even the 50 day average for VIX is aggressively rising.

      Yes, without a doubt a substantial correction is imminent. It is so weak, the market will likely need a 5-6 month decline to find support.

      Delete
  23. $8million bet is nothing compared to George Soro's $1.3billion bet against S&P
    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/02/18/george-soros-stock-market_n_4810434.html

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  24. Finally that gap is closed on VIX. Watch it skyrocket!

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    Replies
    1. still to 19 or 28 on the VIX from here

      Delete
  25. So you dont think Spx 1910 is possible?

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  26. The resistance at 14 failed though.

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  27. VIX could be over 20 as soon as next week imo. I think this is our high of the year for S&P...

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  28. Thx SC. I do appreciate your courage to share clearly your views on VIX. I leave the possibility open that the stock market makes new highs first.

    Cheers

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  29. We are so close to the all important 2000 level, i would think that we want to test that super number at some point in the near future.

    That said, who cares? I wont chase remaining few % if we make new highs and risk losing 10-15-20% or whatever IF/WHEN correction hits us here.

    SC, remember when i mentioned 2100 on the SnP500 1.5 years ago and you laughed at this idea?

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  30. Can you clarify a bit, do you still see 1810 as the target or you now see this is the beginning of a much bigger correction, as you said would "need a 5-6 month decline to find support"?

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    Replies
    1. Both. I think it will be choppy but lower lows and lower highs this year for S&P. It will still be a trader's market though with bounces but declining overall.

      Delete