The Cycle shows two more peaks coming. The next peak is due in February and another in late March or April according to the Cycle.
Therefore, VIX is likely to find support soon and rise sharply to the next peak. The next peak for VIX may even be slightly higher than the blue arrow.
2hour Chart
VIX Cycle 1:
HI and thanks for the updates. Is there any way to contact you directly, i have some questions and ideas regarding Vix - Thanks darell.blog@gmail.com
ReplyDeleteYou are welcome Darell!
DeleteProbably churn around this level for much of this week with little movement as VIX completes forming a low. It can go a little lower, but near support.
ReplyDeletethoughts on gold?
ReplyDeleteIt may rise some more short term $1,350 or a bit more, but nothing major on the upside imo.
DeleteThks for the update SC!
ReplyDeleteWhat will be a good reentry price for UVXY? Do you anticipate it will exceed $108 blue arrow high also?
I think low $60's and, probably will not surpass $108, but reach relatively close to that level.
DeleteAlso is backtest of white line possible for VIx at 12? Thats down near purple arrow levels but the blue arrow corrections dont appear so deep.
ReplyDeleteVIX is currently right at my pink line around 14.50. I expect 13.50 to 14 will prove to be very strong support for VIX and hold.
DeleteActually you bring up a good point about the white line. Not this dip, but the next dip is a little deeper in the Cycle, and VIX can backtest the white line on that particular dip.
DeleteSo you expect 2 more roundtrips from low 60 to 100's for UVXY before final plunge to yellow arrow lows?
ReplyDeleteThat is the basic plan although UVXY won't follow exactly in tune with VIX.
DeleteHi SC, u still expecting s&p to go back to 1700 ish ?
ReplyDeleteYes, can see that level tested during Feb/March.
DeleteHi SC, u think more power left to this rally ? Can it make new highs before going down to test low 1700's ?
ReplyDeleteThis rally nearly over.
DeleteHave we hit bottom yet?
ReplyDeleteLooks like Vix backtesting whiteline on this correction. Hope it holds!
ReplyDeleteVix at bottom right now.
Deletesc, r u going to buy uvxy today
ReplyDeleteUvxy looks excellent once again for my next entry. I am confident Vix heading right back to 22 next.
DeleteNot a perfect swing just yet, but might do for a bounce in Vix. St momentum is coiling for a spike. But i think it might drop more after the initial spike, to a lower low, that would also bring term structure down to a more favorable level for a major Vix swing low, and would set up the daily charts better.
Deletehttp://goo.gl/miaH95
http://goo.gl/UsrJZM
Have a nice weekend!
Churn for vix around this level for a week then back up to 22 imo.
DeleteYep, thats what i was referring to, Vix seldom has a V bottom.
DeleteQuite possible in a year.
ReplyDeleteLove the way this market is swinging. Happy Valentine's!
ReplyDeletesc r u going to buy it end of today or wait tuesday
ReplyDeleteI bought already at 60.79 this morning but was not able to post the trade immediately.
DeleteHowever, it can drift a little lower next week so there is time.
Hi SC, I am curious how we will reach 2000 in sp2000? what is the path look like? I thought your cycle analysis means that we won't go much higher for a long time. Care to explain? Thanks
ReplyDeleteWell basically I see a huge drop later this year and next year but after that looks positive.
DeleteWe heading down soon with a low in March. Then probably to a higher high when vix drops to form the yellow arrow low.
ReplyDeleteIt is early to look at targets but 1695 could be possible. At least 1750. I'll be looking at targets later in more. Vix is going right back to 22, I am confident we see that in March.
ReplyDeleteBought UVXY at 60.79.
ReplyDeleteTarget around 90 March.
DeleteSC this chart of the S&P has me more than a bit concerned for the bearish case and a spike in the VIX.
ReplyDeleteThis is one super bullish looking chart with last weeks reversal looking like the real deal
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p53827153117
Sc, is this false breakout in Gold or the real deal?
ReplyDeleteNice little rise for Gold not expecting any major upside.
Delete"SCFebruary 11, 2014 at 8:51 AM
It may rise some more short term $1,350 or a bit more, but nothing major on the upside imo."
Hey SC
ReplyDeleteyou plan to add more UVXY or just holding now?
Cheers!
I think vix has hit the low and is now consolidating for the next rise. I plan to hold. Llikely to see 20 vix in a couple weeks.
DeleteWill be shorting SPX next few days.
DeleteHi SC, what happens if SPX surges above 1850? Are you exiting your UVXY then?
ReplyDeleteDo you think there is a chance SPX is still on its way to 2000-2100 area?
VIX does have golden cross 50/200.
Thanks.
SPX may see just above 1850 and I plan to hold my position. I am confident that SPX will dip significantly in coming weeks. vix does have the cross and my vix cycle remains positive.
Deleteanyone with NG speciality? forecast for NG prices?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Natty Gas and Gold
ReplyDeletehttp://investmentgossip.blogspot.ca/
Weekly and daily setting up well for a Vix buy setup. Right now looks like they’ll squeeze it to new ath’s.
ReplyDeleteWeekly: http://goo.gl/l5eanV
Daily: http://goo.gl/v1B52q
Thank you Darell,
ReplyDeleteNew chart has been posted for VIX. Shaping up nicely.