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Saturday, February 8, 2014

$VIX - Cycle Continues - Blue Arrow

VIX reached the target area and blue arrow Cycle high.  Currently, VIX is near the pink support. 

The Cycle shows two more peaks coming.  The next peak is due in February and another in late March or April according to the Cycle. 

Therefore, VIX is likely to find support soon and rise sharply to the next peak.  The next peak for VIX may even be slightly higher than the blue arrow.

2hour Chart
















VIX Cycle 1:
















50 comments:

  1. HI and thanks for the updates. Is there any way to contact you directly, i have some questions and ideas regarding Vix - Thanks darell.blog@gmail.com

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  2. Probably churn around this level for much of this week with little movement as VIX completes forming a low. It can go a little lower, but near support.

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  3. Replies
    1. It may rise some more short term $1,350 or a bit more, but nothing major on the upside imo.

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  4. Thks for the update SC!

    What will be a good reentry price for UVXY? Do you anticipate it will exceed $108 blue arrow high also?

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    Replies
    1. I think low $60's and, probably will not surpass $108, but reach relatively close to that level.

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  5. Also is backtest of white line possible for VIx at 12? Thats down near purple arrow levels but the blue arrow corrections dont appear so deep.

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    Replies
    1. VIX is currently right at my pink line around 14.50. I expect 13.50 to 14 will prove to be very strong support for VIX and hold.

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    2. Actually you bring up a good point about the white line. Not this dip, but the next dip is a little deeper in the Cycle, and VIX can backtest the white line on that particular dip.

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  6. So you expect 2 more roundtrips from low 60 to 100's for UVXY before final plunge to yellow arrow lows?

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    Replies
    1. That is the basic plan although UVXY won't follow exactly in tune with VIX.

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  7. Hi SC, u still expecting s&p to go back to 1700 ish ?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, can see that level tested during Feb/March.

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  8. Hi SC, I would like to question your crystal ball. Do you think SP500 will trade above 2000 in your scenario?

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  9. Hi SC, u think more power left to this rally ? Can it make new highs before going down to test low 1700's ?

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  10. Looks like Vix backtesting whiteline on this correction. Hope it holds!

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  11. Replies
    1. Uvxy looks excellent once again for my next entry. I am confident Vix heading right back to 22 next.

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    2. Not a perfect swing just yet, but might do for a bounce in Vix. St momentum is coiling for a spike. But i think it might drop more after the initial spike, to a lower low, that would also bring term structure down to a more favorable level for a major Vix swing low, and would set up the daily charts better.

      http://goo.gl/miaH95
      http://goo.gl/UsrJZM

      Have a nice weekend!

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    3. Churn for vix around this level for a week then back up to 22 imo.

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    4. Yep, thats what i was referring to, Vix seldom has a V bottom.

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  12. Love the way this market is swinging. Happy Valentine's!

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  13. sc r u going to buy it end of today or wait tuesday

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    Replies
    1. I bought already at 60.79 this morning but was not able to post the trade immediately.

      However, it can drift a little lower next week so there is time.

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  14. SC, can you clarify your scenario at this stage?
    What is going to happen in One month time? Three month time?

    Do you think that the next move is on the downside? You do not think that the market could push higher and reach higher highs?

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    Replies
    1. We heading down soon with a low in March. Then probably to a higher high when vix drops to form the yellow arrow low.

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  15. Hi SC, I am curious how we will reach 2000 in sp2000? what is the path look like? I thought your cycle analysis means that we won't go much higher for a long time. Care to explain? Thanks

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    Replies
    1. Well basically I see a huge drop later this year and next year but after that looks positive.

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  16. When you say a low in March, what level do you expect for SP500? Lower than the Feb low?

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    Replies
    1. It is early to look at targets but 1695 could be possible. At least 1750. I'll be looking at targets later in more. Vix is going right back to 22, I am confident we see that in March.

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  17. SC this chart of the S&P has me more than a bit concerned for the bearish case and a spike in the VIX.
    This is one super bullish looking chart with last weeks reversal looking like the real deal

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p53827153117

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  18. Sc, is this false breakout in Gold or the real deal?

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    Replies
    1. Nice little rise for Gold not expecting any major upside.

      "SCFebruary 11, 2014 at 8:51 AM

      It may rise some more short term $1,350 or a bit more, but nothing major on the upside imo."

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  19. Hey SC

    you plan to add more UVXY or just holding now?


    Cheers!

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    Replies
    1. I think vix has hit the low and is now consolidating for the next rise. I plan to hold. Llikely to see 20 vix in a couple weeks.

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    2. Will be shorting SPX next few days.

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  20. Hi SC, what happens if SPX surges above 1850? Are you exiting your UVXY then?
    Do you think there is a chance SPX is still on its way to 2000-2100 area?

    VIX does have golden cross 50/200.
    Thanks.

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    Replies
    1. SPX may see just above 1850 and I plan to hold my position. I am confident that SPX will dip significantly in coming weeks. vix does have the cross and my vix cycle remains positive.

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  21. anyone with NG speciality? forecast for NG prices?

    Thanks

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  22. VIX

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

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  23. Natty Gas and Gold

    http://investmentgossip.blogspot.ca/

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  24. Weekly and daily setting up well for a Vix buy setup. Right now looks like they’ll squeeze it to new ath’s.
    Weekly: http://goo.gl/l5eanV
    Daily: http://goo.gl/v1B52q

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  25. Thank you Darell,

    New chart has been posted for VIX. Shaping up nicely.

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