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Saturday, July 14, 2012

UVXY - Initial Spike Coming

There is a concentration of negative cycles for SPX during the middle part of this week - July 17th to 19th.  That typically suggests a sharp and sudden drop for SPX.  UVXY should spike during that time frame perhaps into the green zone.  It probably will settle back down and cool off after a spike.

15min Chart















The much more important picture to understand for UVXY is that a significant bottom is forming at this level.  Along with numerous cycles and patterns, the exact geometry of the fork and trendline suggests no significant downside remains for UVXY.  The upside targets are outlined. 

Daily Chart









13 comments:

  1. Hi SC

    The first target for UVXY is it that green line touched the light blue line? somewhere near the end of July?

    Dont understand the other points you mention the next resistance, what will happen in August before it hit that yellow next resistance area with UVXY? same as the are between the yellow and red target, waht happen during that period for UVXY?

    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi SC,
      Thanks for the updated charts. I think what would address InvestBB's questions as well as others questions is if you are able to draw a dotted line forecast in the 2nd chart that shows how/when you see UVXY moving into your green, yellow, targets.

      Delete
  2. Hi SC

    Are you planning to exit your UVXY on the 19th then?


    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi SC,

    What can we expect for gold and silver while SPX dropping sharply?
    I mean metals also goes down with Spx or they will go up when spx drops.

    What would you advice a man who invested all his money metals (%80 silver, %20 gold) last year and he is fully underwater :-)?

    Is there any possibility to sell from a specific levels and buy from lower prices to be able to cover losses?

    Some people waits to see dip prices 16-20 july week. Would you advice to sell all pm this monday and buy next week etc.?

    The last q: Is there any time frame to see your gold and silver analysis?

    Thank you your comments, appreciated.
    RB

    ReplyDelete
  4. I see markets rising into 17-19 Jul instead.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Agree. Astro and cycles are positive into,the end of the week. Maybe some downside Tuesday.

      Delete
  5. While I am anticipating UVXY to start moving up in July the first green target is likely to hit in August. I am not expecting much retracement on the way up to $28, and that is why it is labelled "first target". From the first target at $28 to the yellow and red maximum targets I am expecting to see choppy movements with large retracements. That choppy phase will be detailed with charts later.

    The dips are likely to be small on the way up to the first target. This is why I am not an advocate for short term trading. Short term trading was an effective approach during the last several months of whipsaws. Soon, the market will trend on the downside, and therefore my strategy is shifting to longer holds. It is much more important to understand the bigger picture.

    I will be lowering my SPX target closer to 1200 for September. The UVXY September maximum target is approximately $40.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Do you realized every time you make such extreme predictions you have been wrong? Oct/Nov 11, Jan12? Silver crashing to single digit?

      Zig showing new highs in the markets by late September.

      Delete
    2. Results are all that matter. In Fed liquidity drive markets, bears are continually wrong. That whole juggernaut will pop at some point, and they're making sure bears are all broke by then.

      Delete
  6. I think as SPX declines initially Gold and Silver are likely to surge higher into August. However, I suspect the metals to reach a "tipping" point, and they can collapse along with the market.

    I believe Silver has been in a bear market since April 2011. Since then rallies in Silver are just countertrend movements in a bear market. Gold and Silver are not going to be effective safe havens during the next few years according to my analysis. I do not see the current bear market for Silver ending until it hits my calculated target of $6.50.

    I haven't been much interested in the sideways phase for Gold lately, but will have analysis coming as I can see things are about to become interesting again for the metals.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Hi guys, you should observe that there is a steady INVERSE relationship between gold and the dollar exchange rate.
    Investors choose gold as an alternative to the dollar. As a result, gold can decline sharply if investors choose the dollar as a safe haven.
    To conclude, according to my model, gold should see some gains this week.
    Have a good weekend

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  8. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  9. Hello SC and Bobo Mik,

    Do you have any price target for gold for this week and according to your analysis gold will be topping then going down after making short term top?

    Thanks.
    RB

    ReplyDelete