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Tuesday, July 17, 2012

$SPX - Failed at Resistance

SPX failed at the red fork resistance this morning.  There are several other resistances just above also.  A negative cycle is due today, and continues for much of this week.

The bigger picture remains very bearish.  Once momentum fizzles from the June 4th low, a large decline is anticipated.

15min Chart

102 comments:

  1. Replies
    1. it seems very likely...HVU probably will be at 1.50

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    2. ya, pre split....f'me. I bought HVU for a bounce at $2.03, and of course, getting ripped. Have my stop at $1.85 and if it gets hit, so be it. Will wait for a pullback and buy HVI again.

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  2. vix lower tl snapped...on to much lower uvxy prices.

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  3. SPX did fail at first attempt but looks like it will go back to verify it perhaps today. If it fails again, markets should continue to tumble.

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  4. lol...I know question if HVU will hit $2 again! Hopefully it turns today, otherwise I will just sell at a loss and be done with it for another month.

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  5. it is really hard to envision HVU and UVXY reaching the cycle targets in the short term since the strong trend for them has been down....quite disappointing....

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  6. It may take 4-5 attempts and failures over the next two days before the bulls get the message - bullheaded as they are. Still with SC into August, looking especially for the July 26/27 confluence from the Red Line Scenario to kick everyone in the gonads on the way down (and yes, I know the RLS calls for a rise close to 1390 before then - I'm doing some hedging like everyone else should be to keep things from getting too far away from the zero sum until the fall).

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  7. SC, how do see today playing out?

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  8. Same as always. SPX has failed at resistance. The short term cycle is very negative and has started today. VIX set to spike with a powerful moves both short term, and also into Aug, and Sept.

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  9. VIX typically bottoms before SPX tops. VIX is bottoming now imo.

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  10. Thanks SC...you can understand everyone's concerns since the UVXY spike has not occurred yet while plenty of people are quite under water on this one. This leads to people teetering towards closing their losses if they don't see any light (ie. upward spikes) at the end of this UVXY tunnel.

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  11. SC, if you ever give up this gig, there's a place for ya on stage in Vegas as expert knife catcher))

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  12. SC, do I see a right shoulder forming on the SPX? The head being the July 3rd high and left shoulder at June 19? Please comment.

    thanks

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    Replies
    1. I see what you are saying but it's not really a great example of H&S.

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  13. It's fine that the "Spike" is always coming, but you do realize that people on these boards are down almost 50% since jumping in. If the cycles keep getting pushed into August/September than even the "large" move will still net us a loss, maybe 20-25%. BUT my point is this trade is going to be losing trade for 99% of the people who jumped in 2 weeks ago !

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    1. The upside is hundreds of percent. I have the patience to capture that move as always stated.

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    2. SC,
      I admire your confidence but would appreciate daily updates for UVXY going forward so that if we are lucky enough to get to break even after the 1st spike, we can sell out and re-initiate during the following pull back as you stated earlier and then ride the train to $28 from better levels.

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    3. I will update along the way. There are very specific phases according to my work.

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    4. Thank you SC. I think some of us need to be baby'd back to break even for us to enjoy the ride up to $28 later.

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  14. saying that I bought my last batch of HVU to bring my average down...Hopefully this "initial spike" lets me break even on my trade !

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  15. SC, what was your return on investment in 2010 and 2011? I think it would be fair to disclose the number to all the people who are buying into your calls.

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  16. 1361 failed again? Confirmation required but looks like it may be done for the day....

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    1. is there an accepted guideline on how many attempts at 1361-1363 does it take to ensure we have turned the corner and it's only downhill from here? Sometimes I hear about double tops and sometimes triple tops.
      tks in advance.

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    2. guys, look at the price of HVU? or UVXY? everytime we hit this target, it pushing these two product LOWER. what the does tell you?

      we are fcuk holding this product, hoping for the spike, imagine you taking a dump in the washroom and the spike happen? come back, we bounce hard...

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  17. Hey, UVXY new 52wk low....$6.66, maybe a sign?

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    Replies
    1. yes, maybe today there will be an SPX decline at the close for a change....

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  18. SC, could it be possible for your cycle to be inverted?

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    1. No, not at all. Cycle is working great. It spotted the SPX 6 day freefall, the bounce into Tues. Now negative.

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    2. How is it negative? Only thing negative is UVXY/HVU and my trade....

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  19. test #3 of 1361??? 3 times a charm or does it crash through? My experience is when resistance is knocked on the third time, it goes through it.

    Hope it doesn't.

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    Replies
    1. ouch...we broke through as you indicated.

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  20. Hi SC

    Are you hedging this trade with XIV? dont see how one can hold on to the falling knife with overweight position.


    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. No, I'm positioned for the VIX to spike.

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  21. 136.75 is a gap fill on the spy's (SP500 ETF) also upper trend line resistance...

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  22. SPX now at orange resistance 1363.

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    1. now past it....now what?

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    2. Sorry, thats a bit dramatic but even if it fails here, it looks like UVXY and HVU won't recover...the SPX was down 8 points and VIX futures were barely positive.

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  23. VIX a 16.22, look for it to pierce lower bollinger band at roughly 15.90.. that when I get long UVXY

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  24. SC:
    Wow; how many more attempts are you going to front run this supposed negative cycle with the UVXY?

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  25. SC, when are you expecting the VIX to spike?

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    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    2. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    3. I too sympathize but only to a point. Testy you do a good job of combining some of these predictions and of course there are many SC gets right as before this period he had some fantastic calls. However last Decemeber taught me to treat his forecasts with caution as I would have been bankrupt had I followed the crash call that sounded very similar to the June call, which is why I knew better. Sometimes you have to just admit you were wrong, take a step back and re-analyze. Unfortunately, when you are wrong several times in a row, people look elsewhere which I'm sure is fine since this blog is done for free, so we should all take it for whats its worth. That said, its ok to criticize and compliment when seen fit too.

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    4. I also think SC might look back at all these posts with some satisfaction if things go his way, and I'll be the first to congratulate him.

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  26. VIX was suppose to spike on June 25th, now it's September

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  27. History repeats itself. This is no exception.

    Chop your own wood fellas.

    piece.

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  28. Hi SC,
    This must be difficult for you. You are trying to help us but we are getting killed with the recent cycle forecasts.
    On July 3rd, the forecast for UVXY was about $20 by today.
    On July 14th, the forecast for UVXY was about $10 by today.
    Obviously we are no where close to these forecasts.
    Perhaps the cycles need to be re-evaluated.
    In the mean time, do you have any recommendations on how best to get to break-even from a few weeks ago if it's possible at this stage?
    Thanks in advance.

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    Replies
    1. No, my forecast since Thurs was for the market to rally into today. It has. The cycle turns negative today.

      The cyles are fine, and I am expecting the VIX to spike this week.

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  29. The fact of the matter is that I look at these comments as confirmation of my negative cycles. The market does not move big with everyone in agreement. If everyone is bullish then there are no buyers left. That is the reason crashes occur. The mechanism is always the same.

    I don't mind if everyone disagrees with me. It is always going to be that way at an important turning point.

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    Replies
    1. SC, so in your book its either crash or rally???
      How about we go sideways, whipsaw..? this what we have been through. time will kill these decaying instruments in the short term.

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    2. No, it won't last much longer. Crash is the only option in my analysis. Many methods all confirm. Sure, can debate which day it goes over that is about it. It will start slow and accelerate down.

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  30. whipsaw wedneday tmrw....institutional game playing at its finest will probably delay cycles...

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  31. S&P has risen 5 points and VIX futures seem to be holding the same level, and now appear to be gaining some traction.

    Lets see if this materializes, hope it does.

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  32. If uvxy bottoms at 6.66 that's not a good sign lol..

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  33. look on the bright side 3 more days like today we will be at the pivot trendline that joins the high and second high for the year and also the pivot top trendling from the choppy action after the last leg down.

    downside is that HVU will probably be at 1.00

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  34. SPX has gained a whopping 5 points since the Fri high. Weak.

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    1. True about SPX, unfortunately UVXY has come down about 15-20% since Friday as well. At least if UVXY could respond better (as we originally expected) to the SPX changes, that would be ok but the decay seems to be running us into the ground to date.

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    2. ya, this is the problem SC, its how the VIX futures ETF's have responded...

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  35. 1363.46 is the June 19th high, and we are there right now....this is key also. Break this, and we got 1374.71 of July 3rd....I don't think it breaks higher just yet. I think a retest of 1340 first...

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  36. bull flag about to play on the S&P get ready for blast off!

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    Replies
    1. I don't think I see a bull flag there

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    2. me neither actually...thought I'd be the only one not seeing it so stayed quiet...lol.

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    3. you both blind...here we go....

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    4. blind...hahaha, are you just looking at a consolidation on a 1 minute chart? There is nothing on a larger time frame that appears to be a bull flag.

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    5. no, looking at the blog's numbers of comment today. :D

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    6. 10 min bullish inside bar formation from the 40 min up move...still inside the top 30 % of the up move, thus bull flag formation...

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    7. it may not be as clear on the actual S&P500 chart cause I'm reading the SPY, which is the etf that track the S&P500

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    8. 20MA catching up to the candles to ignite...

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    9. Right, the 30 and 60 on the SPX chart points to a pullback...

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  37. The Bernanke bounce almost got us past 1364, but it ran out of gas even earlier than usual. Unless there's a last minute surge, we'll be nestled snuggly in our resistance zone at day's end, and the free fall can begin on schedule in the morning. Bonzai!

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    1. I hope this spike doesnt happen when we go take a dump. Come back, market reverse and bounce back up hard to 1390 lol

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    2. so far the spikes for UVXY have been on the downside...we certainly could use some good spikes on the upside....

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  38. Replies
    1. That just means the MM getting the XIV cheaper lol

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  39. SC, how do you see tomorrow playing out. Thanks

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  40. Tomorrow has all the makings of a significant down day. The cycle turned negative today, market at resistance, SPX went flat and lost momentum last half of today.

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    Replies
    1. Does the negative cycle last for the rest of the week?

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    2. More precisely, I believe you mentioned earlier that the upcoming negative cycle will take UVXY to around 10's before pulling back. Is this still the case and when will this next negative cycle end? Tks in advance.

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    3. Yes, negative SPX cycle this week. I am confident UVXY will spike up this week. It is better for accuracy to gauge the price when it is happening.

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  41. last 3 months full moon and new moon dates have alternated highs and lows for each month...july3 high, full moon... new moon date...tomorrow...

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  42. Hi SC

    Curious to know from your forecast, how is it different this time than last time (the last 6 red days) with UVXY moving up slowly?

    You dont see us doing the samething this time around with moderate to slow decline similar to last time?

    The reason questioning is because looking at today for example, we drop like a rock at the beginning only to have a very strong bullish finish day. Bull seems extremely strong, with all these negative news and events, we still going on green, even a noob like me now is thinking we mostly likely still in a bull market. All decline will just get bought up for this bull run, hence we were moving so slow before (the 6 red days decline), thinking lot of people is just buying the dip (which slow down the decline). At the end, the individual buying the dip win as shown on friday. If that is true, wont this next decline be the same, history like to repeat itself.


    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. Good question. The negative cycle last week was a different type than this week. 6 straight days down moderately was the result. This type should be more like a sudden drop.

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    2. Hi SC

      Let talk about this sudden drop then, this morning clearly looks like we had a sudden drop, UVXY went up barely 53 cents, compare to less than a month ago, when we get an intraday sudden drop, we get around $1 to $2 dollar bounce. This trend has been going on for awhile now. With each sudden drop decline UVXY graduate slow down in rise.

      Compare now to drop, UVXY clearly looks like it drop either faster or bigger than before.

      The pattern looks like a trend, and this is from observation of sudden drop intradays or just down and up day in general.

      Oh, about the 6 straight days down day, we dont see that often during this entire year, that in itself should be fear there, unless I am missing something there. But looking at that 6 days, UVXY move like ~$1 range bounced between 8 to 9 range. If I was a chemical spill controller, this UVXY range looks like a contained spillage lol, while the News station and lawyers are calling for hell break loose sueing the company.

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    3. The next few days will tell the tale....

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    4. The way it works basically is that periods of high volatility are preceded by low volatility. Right now we have low volatility. Not much has happened in SPX since Fri. Flat. Volaltile markets follow quiet markets. This is the nature of cycles.

      So yes the VIX is quiet now, and that will be followed by a higher VIX.

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  43. ...and what was the daily low; 6.66. This is not coincidence..it's m-a-n-i-p-u-l-a-t-i-o-n. There are so many speculators on UVXY that banks, dark pools, intitutions are controlling for max pain and big bull profits.

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  44. Excellent New Trading Indicator

    http://www.markethighsandlows.wordpress.com

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  45. drops do not always equal fear...after the massive run end of june first week of july...any trader knows a pullback,retrace,profit taking etc...is coming,so gradual descent natural...no fear...fear is unexpected...out of left field...nobody has a clue...etc...what it is??? wait and see...you'll know it when it happens...or get out and move on learn to trade on your own...GL

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  46. SC,

    There appears to be some good confluence for VXX to $10.38 tomorrow or the next day (MACD, RSI, McClellan....), with a gap down tomorrow morning (gap up in S&P). Hope I'm wrong, but you might want think about bailing.

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  47. SC, what are your thoughts on Makers comments?

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  48. No, volatility set to rise this week. The negative cycle is underway.

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    1. Kinda make or break here SC. Hoping it works out for ya.

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  49. Just curious ...what is the average profit here from viewers that has been made since January?

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  50. Yesterday I said my UVXY target was 6.65 to 6.7, today's low on UVXY was 6.66.

    It's making another smaller sideway trading range near closing today (part of a bearish upside down flag formation) so most likely it will probably drop further to 5.88 - 5.85, in my opinion.

    UVXY is bottoming but we're not quite there yet, so be careful.

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    1. Good call Doctor.

      We are definitely bottoming, but who knows how deep we'll go.

      As I stated earlier, I've been adding slowly and in small increments.

      I have equal adds at:
      7.50
      7.30
      6.95
      6.72

      I am currently in (4/10) of my maximum allocation.

      I definitely see support near 5.95-6.00, but am not so certain we will get there. If we did in fact get near 6.00 I will start to load up more aggressively.

      Good luck to everyone.

      Please remember -- keep it small and add slowly if you want to stay sane.

      To all of you bitching at SC -- just cancel your subscription. Oh yea, it's free............

      SC, you are one crazy brave man, much respect.

      Let's hope we pop soon!

      -Bicky

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  51. You have no one to blame if you don't practice discipline in your trade...setting stop loss level should be a major part of your plan prior to making any trade.

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  52. I do hope that everyone here will eventually make money on their UVXY plays...good luck to all.

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