Pages

Friday, July 13, 2012

$SPX - Short Term Update

The cycle analysis was negative every day this week, and the result was 6 straight days of declines for SPX.  The cycle analysis remains negative for the majority of next week.  There are some fairly positive spots later in July.

SPX bounced exactly at the orange fork.  From today until Tues there seems to be a decent probability for a bounce or sideways action.  After that, next week, the weak cycles could take over once again.

15min Chart

111 comments:

  1. SC,

    Did you sell UVXY or planning to sell?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  2. Even if it dribbles down a little here, I think UVXY is setting to pop better next week anyways. So I want to be positioned for next week.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. you mean you sold and looking for re entry now?

      Delete
  3. SC,

    What price did you buy UVXY?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I did trade some out but also holding all the time. My avg is in the $10 so in great shape. My S&P trades have been making good profits while I wait for this UVXY to play out. I do think UVXY is likely to pop better next week.

      My plan is the same though just a waiting game for the right timing.

      Delete
    2. Hi SC

      wondering what is this S&P trades you mentioning here?


      Thanks!

      Delete
  4. Consumer sentiments lowest since december...china GDP 7.6% from 8.1%...JP lost close to 5 billion in their trading loss...but market is going higher and higher...LOL

    ReplyDelete
  5. SC,

    What price level you are planning to buy back UVXY? or you are not planning to add more

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. May wait for Monday. I still really like it. It's cheap at every price. Nothing has changed from my plan, and actually it's holding very well. Down 25 cents since July 3rd. The month before that was down from $24 to $7.90. It is close to bottom with big upside. Just fine tuning the timing now.

      Delete
  6. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. lol dollar falling? it needs to do "a bit" more to convince.

      Delete
  7. bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern
    http://humblestudent777.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  8. Do you think this is the reversal you stated between today and Tuesday. Because this really started yesterday.A little scared here. Looks like the action is moving out of downward channels.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I don't think there is too much upside into Tues. I did point out the bottom yesterday.

      SCJuly 12, 2012 7:21 AM
      "Most likely may see some support for SPX soon for a few sideways days. SPX trading just above the orange line. Maybe a short term bottom today/tomorrow, some sort of bounce into Mon/Tues."

      Delete
  9. bought HVU at $2.14....will NOT hold it.

    ReplyDelete
  10. There's a gap that need to be filled at 136.80 on the spy's...imo there will be a 3 day surge up to that level and then we flush next Wed..I sold half my SDS and QID yesterday and will recapture that next Tuesday at the close....probably, also, double down on my hvu at that time, since it will probably get down to $1.90...

    ReplyDelete
  11. SC you seriously cant be comfortable with your UVXY position?

    Despite the markets being sold off heavily last week the decay in UVXY continued.
    How confident do you remain that we get the drop in SPX and the spike in UVXY and have you lowered your target?

    ReplyDelete
  12. Hi SC, just wondering if your targets for UVXY/HVU are the same? Thx

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I believe he's answered that, and said yes.

      Delete
  13. Hi SC, wondering how the strong fear come out so that UVXY can pop up to 15$ 20$... in the near future. I know patience is the key. but in July, UVXY is gradually going down.

    ReplyDelete
  14. The target is the same, and there is no reason in my work why it would change. I'm very pleased with how UVXY is set up. It didn't have the spark in it this week yet, and that just means the timing isn't quite mature yet, but soon.

    SPX is perched on the edge of the cliff, and momentum is waning. It can rattle around a bit before it goes over, but it's going over.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm thinking of adding to my HVU position...when would be the best time to do this?

      Delete
  15. Hopefully by the close today we would have retraced most of the upswing from this morning and give the bulls a taste of the their own medicine for the past few days. :)

    ReplyDelete
  16. The thing is even if it goes over 2 months from now, the decay in UVXY and HVU will probably not give you the return your expecting. The longer the cycle gets pushed further out, the worse this trade becomes

    ReplyDelete
  17. I havent sold my UXY yet. Any estimate about how much lower it might go before reversal? Aint to keen to sell if we are at the bottom here. But if it plunges to 5 id like to get out now:)

    ReplyDelete
  18. I do think SPX can grind a little higher into Tues, but then drop again. There is probably minimal downside for UVXY into Mon/Tues. I think UVXY may pop better next week than this week.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi SC

      you plan to exit UVXY today then, since you think SPX can grind higher into Tues, including decay, this will go lower than current price, no?


      Thanks!

      Delete
    2. again, what is minimal? You've used this term before, after its dropped 20 - 30%...

      Delete
    3. I don't want to micro manage this trade. This is a big play and not a day trade as I have always said. The downside is minimal compared to upside. There is no need to tag the bottom exactly when the methods I use are saying major upside is ahead.

      In fact, I don't even want to be in the habit of trading it short term because when it goes it will go like a rocket, and there will not be an easy entry nor will short term trades be even worthwhile attempting.

      Delete
    4. You are recommending individuals on this site to buy and hold UVXY? So far you are HAPPY holding from 10s to 7s? Not trying to be rude here but why not disclose your spx trades here also?

      Delete
    5. I'm not recommending anything. I am just stating what I am doing, and show the charts with the reasoning.

      The charts are already shown for SPX with my strategies.

      Delete
    6. ya, I read that and thought the same.....he doesnt recommend buying or selling, just his analysis and what he's doing, as he should be.

      SC, I really hope this works out for you.

      I bought HVU today at $2.14, and would love for this to be one of those days where it reverses and goes parabolic! lol. I sure won't hold it over the weekend. 1380 is coming back first, and then I'll reconsider.....closer to July 27..

      Delete
  19. Guess its better not to risk missing a good entry than selling to save a few cents then...
    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  20. ZIGZAG will be right again, if this bounce continues, will see.

    ReplyDelete
  21. OK I'm going to put some risk capital to use here, going long UVXY.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. If we close at the high today, Monday we may have a Gap Up day. UVXY will drop like a hot chick leaving a nerd on first date.

      Delete
  22. why is sp500 going up even with all these bad data, china is slowing down, jp morgan 4.4billion dollar loss, low job rate, low euro... ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Dont mess with Jamie Dimon lol

      Delete
    2. lol, this was the CEO who wrote a 300 page essay replying to a pretty girl.

      Delete
  23. VIX crashing towards lower Bollinger Band with short term VIX futures dropping as fast. UVXY at 6 soon....or lower.

    ReplyDelete
  24. GOLD

    http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/3994/gold1k.jpg

    ReplyDelete
  25. DOW............

    http://img155.imageshack.us/img155/9490/dowpo.jpg

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Joed,

      I always find hard to understand you chart, and rely you on explaination..so you saying that DOW and Gold both reach your target in respect to time?

      Thanks

      Delete
    2. you didn't dare just ask that....lol.

      Delete
    3. Budy, it was humble request...Joed please reply.

      Thanks

      Delete
    4. oh I know, I've made the same humble requests and you should see the attack levelled on me! I'm with ya Stockboom. Would be great if he was more descriptive like...."next target today is 1363, once reached, I see 1355...etc".

      Delete
    5. to be fair to Joed, he did respond to my requests time to time...I agree that would be better if he provide some comments on chart to understand better...

      But it is his choice and can't force him except request for an explanation.

      Delete
    6. Stockboom

      Yes I am only posting time as I have stated....time leads into targets! Dow is 7/15 WINDOW and Gold is present now......obviously though Sunday is the 15th .....resistance on Dow is 12791 and Emini is 1355. There is always a jackass aboard that stops interaction...Best to ya joed!~

      Delete
    7. I've been told by a few that he is one of the best traders out there, so how can anyone not respect that....you just have to understand what he is doing! lol. Thanks Joe for sharing.

      Delete
    8. STOCKBOOM

      I am just shy of giving so much info that it sounds or could be taken as trade advising.....I am sure you understand! If everyone was responsible for their own actions it would be a different story.........and at times here my point is proven out! I am sure you can understand the problem! Best to ya at all times, joed

      Delete
    9. Joed,

      I agree with you, everyone should trade on their theory or plan, it get messy when you rely too much on others...it is good to see other point of view but not trading based on others.

      Good luck to you as well...cheers

      Delete
  26. got this from Danerics blog and thought I would share:

    "new HDGE etf because it shorts companies that are not expected to do well (not an entire index) and does not have the "compounding problem" that occurs when held over the long-term. So, on days like today, it is down but not as much as SDS or even SH, but when the market goes down, it will go up about as well as SDS. Hope this helps someone..."

    ReplyDelete
  27. Can anyone please post ZigZag chart?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  28. No worries found it!

    SC,

    Did you see Zigzag long term chart, are we heading up till August 9th?

    Infact during looking for this chart, I saw your comments saying that you also see higher cycles in end of july...

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The way I see it there are negative cycles next week, so I am looking at it from this angle. One step at a time.

      Then, yes, there are positives later in July. So next week the question is how much drop do we see due to the negative cycles. I think we'll top out and turn down before Aug 9th but if the market churns and slowly drops to start with then end of July to Aug 9th could be close in timing to when it accelerates down.

      Delete
    2. So you think S & P may never reach to the low you were targeting before August 9? I am not trying to prove you wrong or anything...just want to get some clarification on your view..

      Thanks

      Delete
    3. I am expecting the market to drop substantially between Tues to Thurs next week. It should be sudden. Once that occurs, and we see the extent of the drop, then the timing for events in later July can be more accurately identified.

      Delete
    4. The target for the S&P is good in my view regardless. We're just fine tuning the timing, and it can't be too far away.

      Delete
    5. SC,

      It is very clear that market is not running currently on fundamentals, news and data are showing clearly that we are heading or are in recession, europe bailout is not approved by german court and still in parking lot...but on top of all this gloomy data market is not going down, so we may call this headfake and may go higher for few more sessions or weeks...we never know...

      I am in fact expecting SnP to go in 1100 range this year...so agree on down side but timing could be tricky like you said...

      Delete
  29. look at the market running like drunk bull...

    ReplyDelete
  30. At what point to you exit UVXY at 7 at 6 , 5 ? SPX was weak for six days and vix did not react like you thought.. sell and move on ...28 is pipe dream 12 would be a miracle

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Agreed; Position trading for a possible negative cycle using UVXY is insane. Another 10%(+)drop today.

      Delete
  31. sorry SC,
    since you said 28$ target, UVXY has been going down gradually. So, before UVXY can shoot up to sky, our position has been at $0.00 because UVXY is going down much faster than going up.
    so I think we should find a better price to sell uvxy to decrease loss. time to wake up.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I can't not believe I'm reading this post... What better price to sell??? I'm sorry but what do you want from Mr. SC? If you can't take the down pressure then you should not be holding on to such ETF's like UVXY! "Set your STOPS!" "Trade by the pivot accordingly!"

      Delete
  32. guys, next week is OPEX..... Wouldn't be betting on a huge drop, they will dress it up.

    ReplyDelete
  33. Hi SC,
    Please change your strategy, try to find maximum price of UVXY in the near future.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. he did, he stated it was the $9 - $11 range, and now the $8 - $9 range. I wouldn't expect him to change his strategy until it doesn't work for him. However I do think he'd do better with XIV on markets that rise, and HSD for when they fall and forget about UVXY except for day trading.

      Delete
  34. one way you look, VIX held very good with 200 up day..that's just the way I see it...

    ReplyDelete
  35. VIX futures are down 6%, and the S&P which it tracks was up 1.6%.....that is holding up good?

    ReplyDelete
  36. for uvxy to trade 28 there would have to be a black swan event and rapid 200+ point s&p move.. not gonna happen. Stay away from vix instruments.. play tza or spxu something that is directly correlated to market. Sorry to those who followed into uvxy 30+% ago

    ReplyDelete
  37. Hi SC, can I get your thoughts on today's close? It doesn't seem that we're in a freefall after today's move nor are we moving sideways. Additionally we're not making higher lows on the UVXY. Does this weeks action change anything?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  38. Friday the 13th, $spx 1357.
    http://humblestudent777.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I see big HS in formation.
      LS=1363
      Head=1374
      RS=1357 ~ 1362
      Target 1245 ~ 1265

      Delete
  39. I do not know you Guys. I am in UVXY +60% ago. So it is very painful seeing it close at 7.52 But you have to realize the turn is usually right around the corner while you are in max pain, I mean sleepless pain. I know it will decay, I know it is dead cat, but just be a little bit rational to your self. Are we close to the top or bottom while spot VIX is around 16. VIX will periodically SPIKE up. For whoever stuck with this like me. Now it is time to wait, and you will get it. But my advice is that do not just lick it while the wave come. A lot of us tend to jump out while we see break even. That would make all the pain we suffered worthless. I plan to take my capital to scope another 2K while it hit 5.50

    So stop asking SC what his cost, whether he sold or not. Ask youself, Are you going to Hold or Sell. SC gave very good analysis. for that I appreciate it. So far SnP followed his analysis very well, but UVXY......

    ReplyDelete
  40. OMG!!! you guys are doing nothing but making SC wonder why he has this blog...do your own work...learn from several free sites and scources all over the web...this was just like june 27-28 short buyers were cashing out after sell off so they didn't lose over weekend.news is bad ...italy,JPM, blah blah,...SC's plan based on time...NOT price...he's not out until his dates come due...does he do some intraday stuff with other cash??? that's his business...all I read from you guys is "are we there yet??are we there yet??? why??why??" I hope for mine and anyone else trying to learn cycle analysis that he keeps this blog up....wouldn't blame him if he didn't...SC...GL..BTW 5min chart descending wedge,bounced off top TL max pain another quarter and then will run out of room...will have to take off...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SC, what was you ROR in 2010, 2011 and 2012 so far?

      Delete
  41. Cliff's notes: I am right, but we lost 45%. Sorry.

    ReplyDelete
  42. vix daily & weekly at support. if they don't hold next week, no idea how low uvxy can go. hold & hope with these things usually leads to despair. great trading vehicles if you're dialed in and nimble...and not greedy. i hope the no pain, no gain mantra pays off for long suffering holders.

    ReplyDelete
  43. Wow, was out for a bit, look at these comments with UVXY down 40 cents in 2 weeks. Music to my ears!. Next week I plan to take profit on the UVXY spike!!!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I'm still with ya SC! No sure why yet....but I'm still with ya! :-)

      If you can pull this Hail Mary off....you'll be able to write your own check and will forever be my hero.

      Appreciate the updates and relooks at your analysis as things transpire......

      Delete
    2. Cheers Maker! Meet you at $40 UVXY kaaaaaching.......!!!

      Delete
    3. that reverse split is coming))
      have a nice weekend.

      Delete
    4. Hi SC,
      Are you planning to provide an updated cycle chart of UVXY by Monday (displaying updated forecasts/timelines) for us to learn from?
      It sounds like you still feel $28 UVXY is quite attainable soon, it's just a matter of slight modifications to the original timeline (probably now into mid-August as opposed to before end of July from what i can tell in your earlier posts).
      I think your readers would benefit from seeing on your chart (if possible) how we reach $28 from this point since no one was expecting such a drop to the 7's originally (we can thank Mr. Market for such excitement).
      Thanks in advance.
      Have a pleasant weekend.

      Delete
    5. "Down .40 in 2 weeks"?!?! wtf r u talking about!!! we were down almost a buck today!!

      market moves are made in 3's or 7's, so the best case scenario will be a move higher into Wednesday, which will probably bring the UVXY into the $6 range or we rally all of next week (6 more days) which will probably result in the UVXY @ 4.50...

      I like how you exited some of your position without alerting your members??? Not sure why did this if you like UVXY at any price?!?!?

      can you please explain why you would exit any of your position if you like the UVXY at any price???

      Delete
    6. I highly doubt the UVXY will spike next week since its options ex, they will be looking to whip all the shorts out which will kill UVXY to the point it will probably need to be reverse split.

      Delete
  44. SC...I'm also with you, though suffering the pain right now from the low 10's. There seems to be some crybabies on this site....it's easy to take shots...not so easy to share your work...my hat is off to you. Thank you sir.

    ReplyDelete
  45. SC probably doesn't believe $28 of target neather. Sorry SC, actually you are a very nice guy, I have to say.
    the better way i think, Drop $28, face actual world, get a better way to escape. $40 should come in future. but it won't happen in recent couple of months. the world economy is indeed slow. but there are still much thing/way to do to stimulate it. so how strong fear come? we should not cheat ourselves any more.

    ReplyDelete
  46. I am with SC all the time. so I really hope SC are not headed wrong way. change strategy . TIME!

    ReplyDelete
  47. "can you please explain why you would exit any of your position if you like the UVXY at any price???"

    I like to know this also? Some posters think there are crybabies on this site. When you tell the readers one thing and do the opposite, that is deceiving. SC have a habit of making bad calls, then push his outlook out a month, then revealed his recent trades to make him look like a guru. The only GURU on this site is Zigzag.

    ReplyDelete
  48. Guys, we have no idea who SC is, and being a FREE site, you accept everything as conjecture. He's either just a guy who makes very bad calls, but explains his rationale well; or he works for ProShares knowing full well he's luring in big eyed newbies at each stage for the kill. This is a soulless dirty game, imo, with greed and shenanigans abound, and all information, including your own, should be questioned. Short term trading with zero overnight positions is the way to eek a few bucks out of this market and preserve capital. Yesterday was a perfect example.

    ReplyDelete
  49. unknown

    That is all of your problems! U expect the golden brick road for free and NO WORK! hahahahhahaha What a joke! Even when a member gives you dates you can't even figure your own support / resistance.....hahahahhahaha. Zig cycle is nothing more than 1967 and you think it is a mystery and he is a gugu......wow ahahahhahahahah ANd when it is no longer in play you will turn on him! What a joke! charlie

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Charlie, my cycles are a combination of time and price. The correlation chart is a combination of multiple year cycles that converged into a certain point in time. Can you tell me why I picked 1967? I bet you can't LOL!

      I have been very successful at this for over over 17 years. Heck, I even do shorter term stuff. Come on by and see where I had a low this week. Joker!

      Delete
    2. Zig

      I was not putting down your work and I do understand the interaction of T's, cycles and history. My point was that each needs to do their own work and not depend just on you or Sc as they will get burnt in the gap of knowledge sooner or later as you adjust where you are at or Sc does and it is not explained! Srry if you took me wrong or it came across that way. charlie

      Delete
    3. Charlie/Zig

      I was just going to comment when I saw C's reply! I did not take your comment as an attack on Zig's but more of a comment of support of Sc and Zig and a note to others as a no win for these guys for what everyone expects for free. Zig as usual nice job in your work but these posts can sound different then intended as they are much different then conversations.

      On another note I believe that the above cycle will step in now and take over til the end of the month and hold back Zig's until then with the move up starting then! Best!

      Delete
    4. GJ

      I understand what you are saying and also see if the stronger cycle is in control this swing low, the last couple days will be taken out move lower into the end of July to create the low! Tx,c

      Delete
    5. Charlie, I misread what you were trying to say. My apologies.

      Delete
  50. guys look...i can help...google "best free stock charts"...fourth choice down is "web's best..." click on that one...add to your favorites page...google "bulkowski"click on "blog" choice add that too...while there click on "visual index" just above his pic on left...learn chart patterns and go to stock chart site and start to learn...have fun...play with it type in diff stocks...draw trend lines use fibs ...enjoy.

    ReplyDelete
  51. The vast majority of individual traders eventually lose big at this game, so forwarned is forearmed. Anybody who followed Prechter in mid/late 2009 lost about all on bear etf's, and there's nothing that says the same can't happen now. Imagine UVXY price if we surge to 1440. It can happen, as the central banks control markets and have assured the they don't fall much. How many times have you heard, "the Fed's influence on market's if fading with each QE"? We're in the midst of the worst financial conditions the industrialized world has ever seen, and markets are near 2000 levels. Market's are no longer free, thus they're not fair. Trade accordingly to preserve capital.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Whoa, lots of people learning the lesson the "hard way".

      I outlined a more effective strategy last weekend, and perhaps some of you should have taken it into consideration.

      The best way to play these ETS:

      1) Keep it SMALL (so you aren't going on message boards trolling a guy who is providing FREE analysis).
      2) Add in slowly.

      I had an average position size of $8.91 and sold it for a -2% loss at $8.73 last week. I sold it because I saw UVXY was failing to push above $9.00 and that the market was most likely setting itself up for a little bounce before the bigger decline.

      I will look to build a position if we get some strength in the market heading into next week. I tried to start building with a $7.40 bid in AH on Friday, but it never hit. There is a small probability I'll miss the boat due to being all out over the weekend, but I think I'll have my opportunities next week.

      If you are blindly going "all in" following SC, it's your fault if you sell out at the bottom and this thing spikes.

      Keep it small, add slowly.

      -Bicky

      Delete
    2. Bicky,
      You won't miss the boat since I'm sure you will get back in before UVXY reaches $9 again next week. :)

      Delete
  52. Go SC, go! Vive Le Tour! You gotta get that polka dot jersey, man!

    ReplyDelete
  53. VIX is set to make an initial spike this week. Charts are coming. The capitulation is thick here obviously and I've been waiting for this moment.

    ReplyDelete
  54. Sounds good SC. Looking forward to the charts.

    I was looking at some numbers and comparing to several other analysts that I follow. Looks like the first wave down for S&P is lining up to be after 28 July. That doesn't mean that VIX won't start moving until then - time will tell. But all are only expecting VXX to double during this first wave down (1225ish)...that leaves UVXY with 2X leverage, and assuming it begins to turn at approx $8 (if we are lucky)...that puts us at $24, vice $28 after the first wave down. Not saying your numbers won't come to fruition...but you can see the natural decay of UVXY's benefits over time. The good news is that the 2nd wave down should be huge in late Sept/Oct.....hopefully we're positioned well for that trade when it comes. Thoughts?

    Thanks for the comms......and analysis!

    ReplyDelete
  55. The VIX is actually in a free fall since the long bearish consolidation is playing out...The VIX will need to be analyzed again after the move lower is complete...if it begins to move slightly up over the next week it could be another bearish consolidation for a move lower to the 14.35 level last tagged in March.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Concur UK, I'm guessing we could see even lower into the 13's before it turns - time will tell.

      Delete
  56. Does anyone know zig zag's web page or blog address?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi Muzz. it's http://zigzagcycle.blogspot.com/

      It's still a work in progress..

      Delete
    2. Thanks for that zig zag

      Delete