SPX is approaching the target at the red fork outlined in June 4th analysis. The price pattern has worked well, and the topping process for SPX may take several more days to complete.
A freefall is imminent. Downside targets are shown for July.
June 4th chart analysis:
Daily Chart
This is an outstanding setup for UVXY. The minimum and maximum targets are outlined below.
According to the analysis, few dips are expected for UVXY up to the minimum green target. The maximum red target could be possible in the most extreme case.
60min Chart
if it even gets half way to your min target I'll be happy !
ReplyDeleteThere are 8 different methods of analysis using cycles and patterns in SPX and UVXY that I am using to come to the conclusion of the freefall next. Only a couple of the methods have been shown on the site.
ReplyDeleteThe SPX price pattern shown on June 4th is one method. Some others are time consuming and rather complex.
In my work this is a very convincing outcome with so many different methods that I use providing the same result.
Thanks for the notes SC. Appreciate all you do.....don't know how much longer I can hang on this one......but I'm still with ya!
DeleteSC what levels you look to add to position on UVXY and HVU ?
ReplyDeleteI've been waiting to see if SPX hits 1372 which is my target. UVXY looks really cheap with practically nothing for downside.
DeleteSC I noticed in the first chart you target a final low around the end of July. Is that correct because I thought you were expecting a rally from the 3rd week into August?
ReplyDeleteCheers
PS If you nail this your're a genius
The June 4th worked worked well, but the timing has been slightly slower which does push out my timing for a bottom. There is a positive cycle 3rd week of July, but now I just think it'll only amount to a small bounce with the real low late July or into the first week of Aug.
DeleteAnyone heard that HVU will be reverse split?
ReplyDeleteThanks
I bought a boatload more UVXY at $8.16.
ReplyDeleteGetting creamed at the moment
DeleteDoubled down on HVU at $2.22
ReplyDeleteThe SJ's RLS scenario has been calling for the ultimate high on the SPX to be on July 27th......his RLS method has now been correct 8/8. Check it out, pretty good stuff.
ReplyDeletehttp://redlinescenario.blogspot.ca/
Also, he calls for a turn on July 5th so that is the expected next high, down into July 11th, and then up into July 27th.
Just saying, he could be wrong.
by the way, sold HVU for $2.24 small daytrade....looking to re-enter
Today has the feeling of a market melt up, which scares me for HVU. Also, I think Thursday will also be bullish right after teh holiday setting up for a big drop on Friday.
ReplyDeleteSPX finally hit 1371. My target has been 1372. UVXY managed to put in a higher low on this last push for SPX this morning. This is the first sign of a turn.
ReplyDeleteA slow grind up would be perfect for UVXY over the next few days. The setup is similar to the July/Aug 2011 freefall for SPX. A slow start for a few days, and then acceleration down.
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeletecertainly has the feel of VIX futures finding a bottom here...lets see how the rest of the day plays out. Iran and US are heating up in the military showmanship that could play out for real, this could be the factor that drives HVU/UVXY forward along with all the other world issues.
ReplyDeleteBAC is very weak. BAC double topped, and was not able to push over the June top unlike SPX. Yesterday BAC was down and today struggling.
ReplyDeleteLordy Lordy lets get up to $40! LOL. Only thing that rhymes w/Lordy. I'll take $28, tho. Need to get out of the low $9's Thursday. Goodness!
ReplyDeleteLol!
DeleteI'm not counting on $40, but it looks possible, and I haven't been able to rule it out.
DeleteI'm planning to sell at $28 because I think it can see a dip from that level in any case. Then I will review it closely at that time.
DeleteJust quoting Permabear Doomster regarding UVXY:
ReplyDelete"An ugly chart, and the statistical decay is really destroying anyone holding longer than a few days. I see a fair few posters out there who been adding AHEAD of the holiday. That makes zero sense right now, not least if the ECB cut rates, causing a further 1-2% index ramp on Thursday."
I'm hoping the markets retrace to the H&S neckline where I will go short in a heavy way...keep floating market up because it's gonna result in the best shorting opportunity of a life time!
ReplyDeletewhich is your target for H & S neckline?
DeleteThanks
1388 on SPX
Deletei don't it gets there though cause it's just so obvious of a shorting oppotunity...
DeleteSPX remains extremely weak. Only 12 points higher than 2 weeks ago. This is less than 1.5 points a day gain. SPX has been downtrending for 3 months now. This will be the 4th month.
ReplyDeleteShorted WMT...it's at the double top from 1999
ReplyDeletebears are getting screwed. SC, your timing is off again, everything is rallying. No fear trade.
ReplyDeleteWait and see. The plunge starts shortly.
Deletelol..look at JPM its dieing..blood everywhere...even with the light volume..
Deleteyou may be right about the plunge, but feels like it can wait until august.
DeleteAnybody uses WD Gann here?
US market close for today...market close in solid green...
ReplyDeleteSC, how long have you been working with cycles?
ReplyDelete17 years. Early in my career, I started with more traditional methods of fundamental analysis. CFA, etc... I realized that fundamental analysis will determine where the market is going, but it is not useful for the timing aspect. The price will always reflect the fundamentals in the long run, but there must be a better way to determine the timing.
DeleteCycles incorporate price AND time.
Doable?
ReplyDelete8.16 5-Jul 15% 9.38
6-Jul 26% 11.82
9-Jul 10% 13.01
10-Jul -3% 12.62
11-Jul 16% 14.63
12-Jul 9% 15.95
13-Jul 30% 20.74
16-Jul 15% 23.85
17-Jul 10% 26.23
hi sc
ReplyDeleteWouldnt july 29th august 1st fed meeting cause the market to rise just like the last fed meeting?
Let's see how things shape up later in July, and we can do an assessment.
DeleteLooking at the charts it seems we may continue up until July 11..imo. Non farm payroll numbers are being released this Friday and the expectations are set so low that it would be near impossible not to beat it.
ReplyDeleteWhat is the expectation for job numbers? 90K?
DeleteThanks
only 40k
Deleteimagine if they dont beat it LOL.
DeleteWTF! only 40K? it can't be true..I thought it was in tune of 90k or more...how they can cut their expectation to less then half?
DeleteThat was my exact response when hearing that rumor...walmart can create that many jobsin 1 day!
ReplyDelete1388 - 1390 on the SPX seems likely...retrace of the H&S neckline, 3rd hit of the upper pivot trendline and perfect symetry to that point from the previous breakout.
ReplyDeleteThoughts?
If S & P break 1385 then it will go and test 1420 again...no turn back until then...HVUers will be screwed in that scenario..unless VIX stays where it is now and indexes run hard...
DeleteSC...good call on 1370's...you called over a week or two ago and then we talked ourselves out when things were headed south but low and behold it hit today...stay with it...you're on the right track.
ReplyDeleteIn my June 4th analysis I had a topping date on June 19th. SPX hit 1363 on that date so when it fell hard I thought it must have fallen short of the 1372 target. Since June 19th, I debated off and on whether it would still reach that level or not. So I didn't get that quite right, but I still think the rest of my plan will now follow through.
DeleteSC - Have a great 4th!
ReplyDeleteThanks, you too!
DeleteHi all
ReplyDeleteHOLY SH$T...have you all see the NYMO reading tonight? not that it matters much, but it hit 101.32. LOL highest ever, not seen in decades
Thanks!
Yay!
ReplyDeletepeople saying $NYAD is indicating a "summer rally".
ReplyDeletebut i have a little different view on $NYAD than most people discussing.
"$NYAD, cumulative NYSE Advance-Decline issues, made a new historical high today.
last year Jul 7, 2011 $NYAD also made a new historical high with $spx at 1356. that was the high prior to the later black swan crash into Aug 8, 2011."
http://humblestudent777.blogspot.com/2012/07/nyad-july-madness.html
while getting peeled by aapl last few days waiting for the top...I just now notice on the daily that rising wedge and a backtest today(if my lines are straight) so I'm still lookin good on my puts as long as they hurry up...could get to $520"s where pattern started...those terms like free fall and black swan could come to pass...this run has been on very light vol. wouldn't take much to pull the rug...happy independence day to everyone who is free...God bless...
ReplyDelete2008 crash pattern - Strong sell.
ReplyDeletehttp://humblestudent777.blogspot.com/
Hey SC - been awhile since I commented here. I have to agree with your UVXY call. However I think we still have 1-2 days left until a tradeable bottom in UVXY. From that point I load the boat.
ReplyDeleteA NYMO reading of 100+ is way off the charts however on the hourly chart, I think we may pause for a bit, maybe paint a doji on Thursday and then commence a downdraft on Friday.
My thoughts. Stick with the UVXY but seriously I don't know how you hold it for that long.
I started a starter position short on SPX, silver, and am looking to buy some UVXY next 1-2 trading days.
Yes, agree a few dojis next, then collapse for SPX. UVXY may crawl up slowly with SPX printing sideways dojis.
DeleteI'm planning to hold UVXY for a few weeks because I don't expect it'll dip much on the way up. Most of the time I only hold it for a few days, but there are rare spots when it can be held for longer periods.
Hi SC. I was just breezing through some of the posts on the McVerry report and it seems that out of all the blogs mentioned, you and I seem to be pretty much alone in calling for a top here. It never ceases to amaze me how rallies can cloud the mind of the masses. Gotta admit though, this one took the market up 8% in 6 short days. Pretty impressive alright. Nonetheless, the atmosphere of this fine planet just stinks so bad of euphoria right now that it's barely breathable.
ReplyDeleteI must admit, I'd never seen your site before I spotted it tonight at McVerry. So since I don't know your philosophy about links, I won't provide one. Suffice it to say that in an article I posted this afternoon I came to the same conclusion, there is very little upside left. NYMO is definitely issuing a stern warning here, potentially with a pretty nasty decline dead ahead.
I'd say July 5th we start with a gap lower most likely. If not, then it makes no difference if the decline begins on Friday... the result is going to be the same.
Happy July 4th :-)
Yes, the strong rally on Friday was another warning. This is standard before plunges. Using an analogy of a toy top, when it starts to lose momentum it wobbles and darts sharply and erratically first. Then once the momentum reaches that critical low level, it just collapses.
DeleteThe same thing happens with the market cycles.
SPX has wobbled up and down erratically in June but is losing momentum rapidly. There may be a few flat doji days next I suspect, and then it'll just collapse out of the blue. I'm expecting SPX to freefall 100 points or more before it can even manage a bounce.
Thanks for the reply SC. In EWT terms, if we're truly near the end of a wave 2 rebound higher, then the initial collapse you refer to would be just the initial wave 1 lower (of a 5-wave sequence). So the bounce you refer to would pave the way for the wave 3 lower... and 'that one' would be a barn burner. Much bigger than the initial 100 point drop that you (and I) envision.
DeleteI'm going to drop in a little more often and see what you have to say. My apologies once again for only having found your site yesterday. Naturally, you're more than welcome to visit my own from time to time as well. Admittedly though, I haven't posted with much regularity as of late. Anyway, hope you're enjoying the weekend.
SC, since the cycle has been delayed doesn't the decay of UVXY reduce the targets? or does it remain the same?
ReplyDeleteThat's the beauty of this setup. The targets stay the same. The reason is that the cycles weren't really delayed, but rather the negative cycle in late June was a minor with the major coming next in July. My interpretation was conservative in timing because I thought the major could have started during the late June negative period. In other words I was being cautious, but this is independant of the target prices.
DeleteI'm confident they will bounce quite well short term.
ReplyDeleteSC what is the potential of hitting the blue mid-line of the daily chart at 1130 or so?
ReplyDeleteThe reason I ask is that I follow a guy who has an astounding record and he has been saying for months that July would see a rapid and severe decline that could wipe 40% off the S@P.
No, I don't believe so. This is a similar setup as last summer July 2011, but the cycles I use are not nearly as negative this July. That time it fell 245 SPX points, and this time 130 or so is what I have estimated.
DeleteThe other important point is that August and part of Sept look positive, but there is another surprise coming later this year.... I'll explain that later in detail.
1375 MT upside target reached.
ReplyDeletehttp://humblestudent777.blogspot.com/
Echen,
DeleteThe posts on this site are only useful if it helps with our future trades. Your posts only speak to the past forecasts and may be perceived as marketing. Please don't waste our time with them. Thanks.
no kidding, he's just trying to solicit people to pay for his services. Would rather he pay for advertising than use free websites, to me that speaks to how "professional" he is. SC provides free analysis that is detailed yet simple enough for many to understand. Humblestudent777 is not not needed.
Deletesomehow it remind me of JayZ lol
Deletewell, not quite. Humble student has some class and i actually like his postings.
DeleteHi SC
ReplyDeleteWould the FED meeting on July31st-August1st create an upward momentum for sp?
Thank you very much
SC, your lookin good to go .....holy S$#t, this is one scarey wedge
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$DAX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p98217168489
Last time NYMO was this high...flash crash
ReplyDeleteWhat is interesting is that the dollar is recovering, but the markets are still moving higher. Seems there is some confusion out there!
ReplyDeleteno confusion this morning despite central bank intervention. Seems the market is realizing that these interventions are acts of desperation. The PBOC move highlights this.
ReplyDeletewhy so quite here? everyone is still on vacation?
ReplyDeleteSC, have your set your 28 sell trigger and gone back to bed? There's going to be a lot of head fakes here on UVXY before significant gains...best to let it do its thing.
ReplyDeleteBtw, what's your average price now?
$10's. A slow steady grind up for UVXY to start would be perfect. Then next week it should start to accelerate up. I don't plan to trade much or at all because I don't expect many dips for it on the way up.
Deletesold at $2.45....figure this is going to be a wild day...I think I'll be able to buy back HVU around $2.30 or cheaper....today
ReplyDeleteS&P futures topped this morning. UVXY bottomed Tues. I don't have high expectations for the next few days. SPX may just flatten off, print a few dojis.
ReplyDeleteStarting Fri/Monday July 9th right into July 19th the cycle analysis turns very negative. I think SPX can drop 100 or more during that time frame.
SC, im having a deja vu here. Its december 2011 all over. Zig Zag with his bullish chart into september and you calling for a crash, metals moving higher... You were very confident back then as well.
ReplyDeleteI don't disagree with ZZ's timing chart. My cycles simply show the market heading lower in July and then look positive in Aug, and parts of Sept.
DeleteWe've seen large whipsaws in SPX for 3 months now since April. What I am saying is that this same trend will continue in july.
DeleteAM, that was the whole ECB juggernaut deal. Do we have that now? Can't predict what central banks will do, but July looks guiet on that front.
Deleteits just the title sounds apocalyptic .. "Freefall Imminent "
Deleteper ZZ we could see higher levels in the fall, your work does not exclude that possibility (14+ on the SnP)?
If so then one has to be really careful shorting this thing, as the bounce would have to be wild ... to get back up 200pts in such short time. These leveraged vehicles are a 100% suicide for average Joe, unless you have a HFT box executing your trades.
I defined it as a freefall because I think that is a good description for what it will look like - meaning few bounces on the way down.
DeleteYes, likely to trade higher in Sept, and that is 3 months away.
then your sell orders better get filled, this can get wild. good luck!
DeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteI just don't understand, how on earth everytime indexes going red turn back so sharply without any event? Oil inventory down and market is up? like they are turning market for dime nowdays...
we are looking at another green day here...
Newsflash...market's have been manipulated since March 2009 by central banks/large *private* banks.
DeleteOnly precise entries and a strong stomach can win on the short side.
in past few days i got buy signal on daily/weekly SnP. Unless there is a sharp reversal... we go sideways/up. stops are a must.
DeleteFriday's move had momentum which could still take a few days of sideways to burn off. This is typical and probably likely before it rolls over to the downside.
DeleteWell AM, if you want to buy with the mcClellan Oscillator at 307 on the NYSE, the highest for over 2 years, be my guest...but you're not playing the odds well, imo.
Deleteits not auto system, its up to me whether i take a position or not (i did not). im just saying, unless there is a sharp reversal ..
Deletethis same system gave a buy signal in early july 2011 but then reversed 2 weeks later in july with a sell signal to catch a big down move.
Beginning of year run started with McClellan osc. at 140, and maintained that level for general level for the next 4 months...a bullish complex pattern. The evidence doesn't suggest that occuring at 307.
Deletewe can correct through price and/or time.
DeleteTZA 20DMA crossed under 50DMA a couple of days ago.
SPY is about to make a bullish 20/50DMA cross over. critical support at ~134 level.
DeleteOk, but we're in a whipsaw market which renders many shorter term moving averages less effective and prone to mixed signals.
DeleteAM, we have a trade set-up here. If you don't like it, don't trade it. It's really that simple.
Deletecome on guys, relax. stick to your guns. ill cheer for you from the side.
Deletehey guys, I think the caution AM is showing is warranted......Dec 2011 many would have lost their shirt based on the charts SC had.....so best have a view of all possibilities and look for signs. Right now, the market seems to be finding some strength and I think will go green to end the day and into tomorrows jobs report....I may short again at the close depending on the price level.
DeleteSILVER
ReplyDeletehttp://img19.imageshack.us/img19/7678/silvercut.jpg
Guys, it's the market;caution is always warranted, and there are always 2 sides to the trade.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.mcoscillator.com/market_breadth_data/
tug o war between BAC and AAPL...both about %2 in different directions...u no who I'm pulling for
ReplyDeleteJPM death cross on daily chart is complete...only a matter of time before the markets follow...
ReplyDeleteThe whole banking index looks weak today, BAC trading at the lows of the day. Also $RLX is a good leading index and it is weak, and wasn't able to reach the June high. Weaker than SPX.
ReplyDeletedont know about weakness, but we just give back almost all gain in UVXY from this morning...
DeleteWell SC did say ideally uvxy would move up slowly for a few days before rocketing upwards...perhaps the wish is coming true today.
DeleteYes, nice and steady UVXY is showing relative strength. It's 40 cents off it's low Tues with SPX hovering at the high. Looking great.
DeleteSC, will you be considering purchasing anymore UVXY?
ReplyDeleteNo, I'm fully loaded. Bought my last block Tues at $8.16. Now, I sit back and wait.
DeleteWell, let's be quiet, and do not let MM hear that. LOL. Me too, loaded and wait
DeleteHVU is just sad dog, UVXY is up in green, while HVU is struggling to make green from red line.
ReplyDeleteThanks!
Thats ok, and only because HVU was trading and green yesterday. UVXY just catching up.
Deletewell, HVU was up 3% yesterday while UVXY was closed...that is why you see the difference...
ReplyDeleteAll we need is volume
ReplyDeleteJust picked up some QID and SDS
ReplyDeletethey'll push it higher- check out feb-april 2008 rally 1250 - 1440. we could be repeating that bump. similar time frame - by late july - early august.
ReplyDeleteSC, what are the chances that the S&P could be consoladating for another mover higher? Or are you confident that this is it?
ReplyDeleteYour top analogy seems intact so far based on todays action.
Thanks
well ...high of 1374.81 still high july 3 and finally notice a pretty little rounded top on aapl $614 high(hourly)...i was looking for $617...that would be %78 retrace from 644-522=122...and should that touch tomorrow or not, 122 from here gets you sub $500 soon...either a c wave or 3 wave move should be rapid like you're looking as well...gravity about to take hold....
ReplyDeleteA couple EW guys I follow are predicting this pullback to be followed by a surge to the top of this next wave. As long as we maintain support over 1348, next target is 1400 (SPX)...
ReplyDeleteSC - I'm still with you on this trade...but if the S&P consolidates and surges to the 1400 area.....it's gonna put us into August and the next positive cycle in your crystal ball. Hopefully tomorrow or Monday we'll see the S&P break support through 1348......
ReplyDeleteas long as 1340ish holds we move higher from here. 3>10>20>50DMA on the SnP.
ReplyDeleteI'm confident that SPX breaks the 1266 low on this move. I'm not overconfident, I'm confident because I've carefully reviewed so many different methods of analysis. They are all aligned beautifully. This is as clear a setup as exists in my work.
ReplyDeleteWe're going lower, much lower - believe it.
....I'm trying! ...and haven't given up yet :-). Appreciate your thoughts SC!
ReplyDeleteHi SC:
ReplyDeleteIf we surge higher tomorrow and make a new low in UVXY -- are you still going to be confident?
I have a position in UVXY and TZA, so believe me, I would like to see the markets go lower; however, I've been significantly burned holding these bastards when the market keeps chugging higher as I *hope* for an eventual reversal, but a slow grind higher can leave you broke holding these things.
I sincerely hope we drop tomorrow, but to not have a stop loss/exit plan can be taxing with these vehicles.
Thanks for your free analysis.
-Bicky
I haven't given up either. Thanks for all your hard work SC. If these cycles play out I suggest you start your own offical site and not just a blog.
ReplyDeleteThe analysts that I usually follow initially thought we were headed lower last week but based on that action they remain nuetral with an upside bias, however, they also have predicted more downside taking out the lows of this year...
What if we grind higher next week...will u exit UXVY?
In this case I don't believe there will be any issues why I would exit UVXY. If there ever was a reason I would not hesitate to say so immediately, and stop out on the trade.
DeleteThe bearish case looks very solid here.
Lots of angst today. When is there ever a guarantee with markets/trading? My favorite fee service analyst, Tom McClellan, who is #1 timer again and again, and who is bullish(and correct) most of the time, sees a cycle turn down between July 6-11, and now prefers the front end of those dates due to his own oscillators being overbought. It's all about stacking the info. and drawing conclusions...and we can still be wrong. I'm sticking with Tom and SC...
ReplyDeleteSC...gang ...looking at SPX daily chart....every peak this year...big or small has been followed by AT LEAST two red bars signalling top...we have one today...sooo one more tomorrow and we be lookin gooood friends...everybody keep your doubts in check...and your faith out front...hasn't happened yet where we 2 or more red then back up...believe this guy or trade on your own...you need to do your homework anyway...to LEARN...
ReplyDeleteVIX future is up almost 5% and HVU is also up 5%? am I missing something here?
ReplyDeleteThanks
Generally speaking, I find that ETF's that play off VIX tend to catch up with it typically at the last hour of trading if they are not tracking to it as expected. So I would not worry about it too much.
DeleteIt's trading close to 1x this morning. No wonder there are lawsuits over these ripoffs.
DeleteNo, I don't understand why you guys don't pay attention to VIX futures after the market closes...it clearly dropped yesterday after hours and when you consider that, as well as the decay since HVU rebalances DAILY and the contango....then you get why this is only up 3.7% right now.....
Deletemarket going to rally here to 1388 - 1390.....I'm buying HVI for a flip...
ReplyDeleteSS76, what makes you think that S & P will go to 1388 level?
DeleteThanks
SC...Do you have some idea on the NDX July targets? Apple's domination makes it a challenge to line up with the SPX charts you provided.
ReplyDeleteFor NDX it'll be easier to determine exact targets later in the month. For now an estimate would be NDX 2410 to 2450 range.
DeleteThis is not the vix action you want to see at the beginning of a market turn. I agree with SS76
ReplyDeleteS&P below first support of 1357, needs to go below 1348. EW folks are being very cautious now as a decline through 1348 would invalidate bullish counts.
ReplyDeleteSC - your plan in motion........
There is simply no fear out there. That can change in a heartbeat, however the jobs number was not so bad that the market would tank on it, and it was bad enough that QE is very much on the table.....so I think that at least for the moment, this market is going to reverse and that is why I bought HVI at $9.38. At least for the short term, figure HVU could be a buy next week, but won't hold it overnight, that never seems to pay off and when it does, its minimal.
ReplyDeleteConcur with likely reversal to the 1400 area, but decline will come after that if so. I don.t see QE coming until justified, and it won't be justified until the market suffers a decline to at least the low 1200's. It appeared that this was lining up for the Aug 1 Fed Mtg.....but the timing is a bit elongated now. You're right, volume is not as expected with a turn, but the volume on the bullish side has not been rally-huge either....probably because of holiday week....so movements in the market may not be predictive in nature until the volume picks up next week. Even if the market does continue up, it is acting as oif close to top if not already topped...relatively speaking......
DeleteI agree whole heartedly with your view.
DeleteBailed at 9.03. Will reenter in 7's. Total bear trap.
ReplyDeletebailed on what?
DeleteUVXY
DeleteWell done...SPX to 1400
DeleteDOW
ReplyDeletehttp://img3.imageshack.us/img3/6392/dowi.jpg
bought HND at $4.93, still holding HVI though....I predict a 1382 SPX close....ambitious I know.
ReplyDeleteWell the cycle analyst I follow is calling for a collapse into August of up to 40% with a minimum of S@P 1140 and looking at the weekly bearish pattern on the DOW and SP he may well be right
ReplyDeletehttp://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$INDU&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p59772095702
It's like the VIX is waiting to see if the morning SPX drop will stick before it reacts.
ReplyDeleteIf SPX does hold it's lows, I expect the VIX to react accordingly by eod.
still no sell on the daily SnP we need a follow through under 1340.
ReplyDeleteGold and silver follow the market, no fear, just like dec 2011-jan 2011. if we rally, all risk rallies.
DeleteI think the fear happens in a few stages. First fear trade is to cash...to protect profits. After realization of what's happening, next stage is fear trade into metals. The 2008 decline seemed to follow this. ....doesn't mean that's always the case either.....:-)
Deletew1...1374.81 to 1363.02
ReplyDeletew2...1363.02 to 1373.85
w3...1373.85 to ???
1374.81-1363.02=11.79...x 2.62=30.88 subtract from 1373.85
and you get1342.97...we'll see
The market is just getting started on the downside. Give it time and wait until the market blows down through supposed supports, there will be fear.
ReplyDeleteNDX leading down today.
metals are all over the map. gold blew through 10/20/50DMA need to close above that level to be bullish.
DeleteThere is no real fear out there yet, but there will be soon.
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteAmazing how VIX future is not reacting...can you check how VIX cash is behaving? it is very possible that you see VIX cash shooting higher but not future, and that is the real game here..people are still hoping for QE3 in future and that is the reason VIX future is not going wild...
Any thoughts?
Thanks
It often starts slowly like this, then when people realize this isn't just another small dip, the VIX will explode up.
DeleteThanks again for all your work SC. It seems your analysis is bang on so far. Lets see if we break the lower pivot trendline next week.
ReplyDeleteWhat amazes me is how well cycles work (if calculated properly) and how the news initiates the cycles. This tells me that the markets are choreographed. Someone/group out there plans these moves in the market who must also own the media or have significant influence over the media to ensure that the markets stay on track...imo.
Have no fear, the central banks are here...this mindset has been the status quo for 3+ years now. Will it ever change? Mark Faber says NO.
ReplyDeleteThe reason there is no fear is because the majority, or as I like to call them sheeple, are brain washed by the media to think this is a bear trap and that they should buy the dip. So, until the previous lower high is broken sheeple will continue buying with no fear.
ReplyDeleteSorry, i meant to say higher low.
DeleteYes, lots of complacency here.
DeleteBut look at the DOW down almost 200 points, S & P down 20 points and VIX is up only 40 cents?? common there has to be some logic...
ReplyDeleteIt also might be suggesting that the market trades sideways down here for a little while before heading lower. The VIX was leading yesterday so it's taking a breather. No problem.
Delete$spx is at the mid blue pitch fork support, after coming down from the upper blue pitch fork resistance.
ReplyDeletehttp://humblestudent777.blogspot.com/
I actually drew it on the UVXY chart above. A gradual rise to start with, and then the acceleration straight up.
ReplyDeleteI think next week will be much more exciting.
DeleteSC - so far so good.....thanks for the words, and most importantly, the analysis!!
DeleteHi SC
ReplyDeleteThanks for service, have a great weekend.
Thanks!
Hi SC
ReplyDeleteI'm itching to buy more HVU. Do you think it might be a good idea to wait for a pause day on Monday or should I purchase my last batch today?
Thanks
Monday may be slightly better, though difficult to say. May not be much of a difference either way.
DeleteThanks
DeleteFYI: http://www.cyclicalmarketanalysis.com/ is available
VIX is not working looks like....another drop may occur..
ReplyDeleteYep - short term SnP rally in the making....but it'll get back to declining shortly after that.......
ReplyDeleteWhy market is coming back?
ReplyDeleteWhy? For the same reason I told you earlier. This market is rigged. Did you see the whitehouse spokesman today trying to spin the jobs report? Now granted, big increase in full time jobs, but not good none the less. This market is heading to 1388 - 1392 before the major drop later this month. I also have another theory I read on danerics blog that I am going to investigate and if after my review it jives, i'll share it.
DeleteCause 3pm EST is rally time, happy hour. Same crap every day.
DeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteIF S & P go to 1380's from here, HVU and UVXY will be killed...they don't go up when market tanks and they tank hard when market goes up...
The market has topped, is down today, and going much lower next week.
DeleteStockboom, SC's plan for the SPX is still in tact however I think it goes up again first. However in terms of HVU and UVXY, I don't believe his targets will come close but ya never know. He is right that once it gains momentum, it is rapid and big movements. Problem is that the SPX at 1245 I don't believe gets HVU anywhere near $7. $4.50 at BEST. Now, noticed that at 4pm the VIX futures were down -0.10. Now they are down -0.20, and in about 15 min we'll know where it settles and that will explain HVU's opening price on Monday.
DeleteSC, whats your thoughts on HVU and UVXY closing negative even with the markets down so much?
ReplyDeleteThat is a sign of excessive complacency. Nothing is more bearish than no fear with the market dropping. Until there is fear there is no bottom for the market.
DeleteSPX closed solidly down, and the cycles are much more negative next week.
Thanks for your reply. I look forward to next weeks action.
DeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteOther problem is USD is also very strong and market came back and gained almost 50% of their loss today...VIX future dropped another 30 cents after market close,
SS76, I agree monday VIX will show 5% but HVU will gain may be 5 cents! LOL
Folks,
ReplyDeleteThis is the 5th minior wave up for SnP. After that, 5 waves down. The EW folks estimate that the 5 down will be swift. The size of the last wave up tonight/Sunday Night/Monday is very vague......but with the decreased volume I expect it will not be too big. Hang in there ... it's coming. I do concur that maybe I should have sat on my cash until now to minimize effects of contango/leakage........a few learning points....but SC has been accurate thus far and I expect we will see his plan in full force soon. I know - preaching to the choir - but words help when emotions are challenged. Hope you all ahve a great weekend! Thanks SC!!
SC...your magic number is $9.40...UVXY in a big descending wedge and upper TL is there....a break above and u r off to the races...hope I can steal a few options mon.
ReplyDeletedepressed today.
ReplyDeleteHi SC,
ReplyDeleteSP is down, but no fear because investors are thinking of QE3 should come out at the end of July. the closer to the end of July, the easier for investors being happier. so I'm afraid, when market is going down next week, investors will be happier. they'll see QE3 soon. How UVXY gets up. looks so weird.
Hi SC,
ReplyDeleteHow investors can feel fear? after auguster 1st, FED does issue QE3, there must be strong fear in market. three weeks to go. so no matter good or bad data comes out, UVXY won't go up too much. I'm afraid UVXY will get reverse split before Auguster. SC, do you think so? Than you.
Hang in there Shing! Last time they reverse split UVXY at $5.65 (or thereabouts)....while the ETF managers can do what they want, I don't think we'll see it that low on this cycle. But you are right, we're cutting it very close. I'm sure SC will have some words fo you as well.
DeleteVIX To Trade Sideways And Then Up – Way Up
ReplyDeleteBy Abigail Doolittle | Stock Markets | Jul 06, 2012
http://www.forexpros.com/analysis/vix-to-trade-sideways-and-then-up-%E2%80%93-way-up-128707
I'll just be pleased to reach the $28 target soon as per SC's forecast. Anything beyond before August is gravy.
ReplyDeleteI'm afraid VIX doesn't go with SP. what can cause fear? nothing, The hope of QE3 will kill us.
ReplyDeleteMy 1st post here. Think of volatility as the spread between top and bottom. In fact the more the S&P shoots up, the more violent the VIX move will be on the way down. One or two down days is not enough to shoot the VIX up because it just means that the index is back along the trend line. Next week at some point it will shoot up if the sell-off continues. Let's say VIX is 19... up 10% is 20.9, HVU up 20% to roughly $2.70; VIX up another 10% to 23, HVU up another 20% to $3.25; VIX up another 10% to 25.3, HVU up another 20% to $3.90; VIX up another 10% to 27.8; HVU up another 20% to $4.70. These are just rough estimates. VIX will jump after sustained selling. Let's see what happens next week.
DeleteHvu is consolidating 1:10!!!!!!!!
ReplyDeleteSS76 , what do you mean?
DeleteI try to find this news of reverse split on Horizon website and couldn't find it...technically it doesn't matter if it reverse split or not as long as VIX goes up, but if it goes down fast then bigger issues...
ReplyDelete