After some weakness for a few days now, next week SPX could continue to grind up until late in the week.
60min Chart
Wednesday, July 18, 2012
$SPX - Short Term Update
The SPX cycle has turned negative already yesterday, and will continue to be the case for several days. Fork resistance is just above also. The short term cycles for the majority of next week do look more positive though.
After some weakness for a few days now, next week SPX could continue to grind up until late in the week.
60min Chart
After some weakness for a few days now, next week SPX could continue to grind up until late in the week.
60min Chart
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ReplyDeleteI think this is what Unknown is talking about, guys..and I think SC is looking for the pull back to 1366-1370(4)to Monday or Tuesday and rise to the top thru out the next week to (actually the near double top) expecting near 1409-1415 to finish out the major wave 2 to start Major wave 3 in the beginning of the August. http://elliottwavepredictions.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/SPX-60m-7-18-12.png
ReplyDeleteI've followed Sid's counts for a while, and he's just like all EW guys...very hit or miss. He's adjusted his wave 2 top so many times, it's hard to take him serious. His currency counts have been the same. When they finally get it right, they tout their top or bottom call as recruiting tool to their site. EW is great in hindsight only.
DeleteHi unknown may I ask who is the market timer that you follow and has he been fairly accurate overtime? What is his web page or blog so I can check him out.
DeleteThanks
SC,
ReplyDeleteLet's try for a change here...I am predicting next week will be bearish and extremely bearish...and this is based on my experience with market behavior...without drawing any charts or lines...
Nothing personal..I just want to check myself and prove it to you that how your analysis are reversed every time...
Cheers
Yep, that's the plan.
DeleteSILVER
ReplyDeletehttp://img217.imageshack.us/img217/4243/silverut.jpg
Futures are up about 5-6 points. I am concerned the negative cycle we are supposed to be in is not occurring at all. Maybe Stockboom is on to something with the reverse cycles concept for short term trading.
ReplyDeleteSC's cycles may still work for the medium term trading. We should find out by end of August.
DeleteInterestingly (I sold HVU yesterday by the way, 8% loss), VIX futures despite a sizable green S&P futures again are not too bad....perhaps some stability here.
ReplyDeleteI'm still hesitant to buy and figure that the best opportunity will be at the end of next week. Although judging on how it is behaving both yesterday and this morning, the buy signal might be on within 15 min of the opening of the market..
very disappointed for sure
ReplyDeleteGood news for UVXY holders: a popular formula for traders to hedge their long positions is when S&P is greater than or equal to 'SMA 9 plus 2 VIX'...for example: currently S&P is @1372.78, SMA 9 is @1352.4 & VIX is @16.16, so SMA 9 + 2 VIX = 1352.4 + 2 (16.16) = 1352.4 + 32.32 = 1384.72 (top Bollinger band is currently @1382ish)
ReplyDeleteInteresting HVU opens same price as yesterday!
ReplyDeleteand now its dropping....will be interesting to see this today. Can't hold HVU overnight tonight or you'll be stuck with it for days depending on your trading platform as it reverse splits in the morning.
ReplyDeleteso much for the negative cycle
ReplyDeleteLOL if this has been a negative cycle I can't wait for a positive one!
DeleteThis could be an inverted negative cycle.
DeleteCan anyone explain the implications of the following:
ReplyDeleteSPX has moved up about 14 points since Tuesday and HVU and UVXY have not moved at all.
Is this the bottom for vix futures and the etfs?
Double divergence between price & MACD Histogram & extreme high William %R indicator...reversal is around the corner imo, if not today then Friday.
ReplyDeleteDouble bottoms' neckline for UVXY is at 7...target of breakout is 7.47
ReplyDeleteHi,
Delete1. How do you see UVXY playing out over the next 2-4 weeks?
2. What is your track record of success with forecasting?
Thanks in advance.
My track record is ZERO. I am a suicidal trader.
DeleteWell, not ZERO...because I am still here.
Deleteload some hvu
ReplyDeleteSC, Docboom, Stockboom, ss, et al,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your continuiing comments. They help! Its great seeing a few perspectives.
You are welcome. I am one of the less knowledgable people but learning from others also, and other blogs also. Also realize that I am not as bad a trader anymore and knowing when to cut my losses. That said, SC could come out looking amazing here, and I do hope he does because he's genuine.
Deletenice action for a turn. no spx gap left if we sell today.
ReplyDeleteWe are in the making of a right shoulder on the SPX. If the H&S pattern plays out the target could be just shy of 1500.
ReplyDeleteThe rreverse split for hvu is coming and this vehicle wats to decelllerate to zero at a rapid pace.
i'd be very careful holding this for more than a couple of days...
I am thinking of leaving HVU and just go for VXX. any thought?
DeleteAgree completely. That is why I took my 8% loss and will re-assess. Perhaps next week Friday is the day HVU will be a good entry.
Deleteright shoulder; target 1500. I think you got that turned upside down. Vix at multi year lower tl...downside minimal. 1500 lol
Deletehave you ever heard of an "inverted" H&S pattern? if not, look it up.
DeleteRead your own post...it says H&S pattern, NOT inverted. I'm not a good mind reader. VIX at bottom. I can churn a while, but markets are overbought. Please, load XIV right here.
Deleteits quite obvious if a target is higher than the current print i'm referring to an inverse H&S.
DeleteI will wait for a successful backtest of the neckline before before considering SSO...
SC, Does SPX500 at 1400+ within next 2-3 weeks fit in your model?
ReplyDeleteWhat happens if SPX spikes to those levels, will your cyclical work be still correct, 30pt move higher? Is it acceptable?
As you can see oil is spiking telling us that liquidity is in the system, markets are getting pumped to higher levels.
Starting from Monday July 23rd to the next Monday July 30th does look positive and I do think 1400 is possible and around that level is likely in just over a week.
DeleteThe big drop is then likely at that point into mid-Sept from that point, and time.
so your call for a large drop in July and huge vix spike what happened to that... was your call wrong? It appears it was.
DeleteThe timing was too early in July, but Aug is when we will see that in my work. So yes I was early, but same outlook for Aug.
DeleteBeing "early" can result in some very big losses. Saying there is very little to no downside risk on uvxy when it was trading in 12's was early (wrong). I am sure you are a great guy and mean well but instead of saying you are "early" how about incorporating the word wrong into your vocabulary. I have never read that word in any of your posts.
DeleteThat is true, I was wrong in thinking there was little downside at higher levels. At the same time I am confident that my targets at $28+ will still be realized in Aug and Sept even though my initial entry was not well timed in July.
DeleteMick, that should be a red flag to everyone. My cycles say Dow 5000 ahead, so short now. It comes in 2014, and I was correct, just early, as Dow went to 14k first, and Vix to 5...lol
Deletefair enough.. uvxy is far too risky way to play as you can see. If your timimg is in question why use instrument that has decay. Options is the play.
DeleteSC, so again, you see this? Targets and timing pushed out to fit your work?
DeleteHonestly, how can you say in august it will work out? month after month you kick the can down the road, of course it will hit a wall at some point, statistically but not because you called it.
Does it not bother you that your timing is not working?
They will hold the markets until elections. That 4 MONTHS!!!
SC, you should do what some people do when their forecasts went totally wrong. Just say that your cycles were INACTIVE when you are wrong, and that the cycles were ACTIVE when you are right. That way you can claim 100% right as long as the cycles are ACTIVE.
ReplyDeleteThing is that you can only tell if the cycles are ACTIVE or INACTIVE in hindsight. But, hey, who give a rats? As long as you can claim being 100% correct.
cycles are negative ... market is positive. Market is always right.
ReplyDeleteHere is a really interesting read: http://www.forexpros.com/analysis/the-vix:-it’s-complicated-130050
ReplyDeletetiming is everything SS. if you wait long enough you'll be right. eventually.
DeleteThere was an article a couple of days ago from big option house with data suggesting further drop in volatility short-mid term.
Agreed. AM.
DeleteThe inverse H&S can be seen on SC's chart above and is actually active since yesterday. good luck to you all....
ReplyDeleteIt is just sideways for now so I have been waiting for that to finish up. I am looking for Gold to run in August.
ReplyDeleteBack in January, Sc was looking for a market melt down, but Zig was looking for a January surprise.
ReplyDeleteEnd of June, Sc was looking for another meltdown, Zig was looking for a huge rally.
SC agrees with Zig's outlook, but he continue to stay short? This is what confuses me. If you agree with Zig's chart, why go short when the chart is obviously bullish?
I don't speak for ZZ. I do agree with the timing of turns on the chart only. My view is different on price levels, though I note that the chart also shows an Aug drop.
DeleteI point out that the market has been making lower highs since early April.
It also has been making high highs sine June 1st.
Deleteresistance is futile sorry uvxy
ReplyDeleteBought 1000 shares of TVIX @3.22, 1000 shares only costed me 3220, lol
ReplyDeleteUnknown...
ReplyDeleteThere was talk of you posting the trading results of these cycles.....will you dp that and I also would appreciate knowing if anyone has made money following this site! Goes to the core of posting! Tx
Here comes da sell-off!
ReplyDeleteright on the mark...
DeleteRelax guys, the info on this site is free...it's a free market opinion posted by SC here, so appreciate the works he spent in making the postings.
ReplyDeleteTry making some market predictions yourself and see how often you can get it right...better yet create your own blog so people can track your preformance, after you create a blog please post here so everyone can follow it daily.
DeleteAh, it was just a little funny; lighten up Francis!
DeleteGuys my morning post...repeating so don't forget!...SC this is not against you just so you know...and you are not responsible for anyone's loss...
ReplyDeleteSC,
Let's try for a change here...I am predicting next week will be bearish and extremely bearish...and this is based on my experience with market behavior...without drawing any charts or lines...
Nothing personal..I just want to check myself and prove it to you that how your analysis are reversed every time...
Cheers
I'm coming up with the same results as we retrace to backtest the inverse H&S neckline on the SPX...
DeleteThis week is the options expiration week for the month of July - that is normally a positive week every month for the monthly options expiratiuon. The week that follows is normally a negative week. HVU and UVXY should NEVER be HELD for insurance OR in HOPES of a market decline - the only time these should be held for any longer than a few days are when the VIX is trading in the TOP HALF of the bollinger band AND is elevated from its usual benign state of under 20. In sideways to up markets, all UVXY and HVU and VXX will do is go down - that is why these should not be held in markets like the ones we're in now which have an upside bias and have had an upside bias since June. This is something that NEEDS to be understood by ANYONE wanting to trade UVXY, HVU, and VXX.
ReplyDeleteWhen S&P is around SMA 9 + 2 VIX...it's normally a good idea to buy VIX to hedge against long positions.
ReplyDeleteRe the SPX:
ReplyDeleteThe options show that the SPX will be going to either 1370 or 1380 for options expiration for July (for Friday). At these current levels, the SPX is overbought AND has a potential M pattern forming (an M pattern is a double top). Also, the US dollar trades inverse to the SPX - and on the US dollar chart (looking at UUP as a proxy for this), there is currently a bull flag showing - this suggests a pop coming for the US dollar very soon - target price for the pop is to around $23.45 (its recent top at just over $23 will be resistance). When the US dollar pops, the SPX goes down. Potential top price for the SPX is to 1390 to 1400 which is the target area for the inverse H and S pattern showing on the chart which has the head at 1266. Potential target price for oil (from the bull flag it recently had on its chart) is to the $95 area. When oil comes down, so does the SPX. The top bollinger band for the SPX is at 1385 area. Also, google "Bradley dates" and see what they are and how they affect the SPX - the next Bradley date is July 28th - within 4 to 7 days around that date, shows the SPX going down basically until the beginning of December with a few upturns in each month to December. You'll see this on the Bradley dates graph if you google this.
Thanks for the info. The Bradley chart was interesting.
DeleteBradley date's look interesting...But they did work most of the time in 2011 ?
ReplyDeleteBradley dates are hits and misses, although this time I think the coming Bradley date will be right
ReplyDeletewishful thinking doesn't work with these markets...
DeleteActually, going back to early Feb 2011, if you check the Bradleydates in 2011 with the SPX, they were BANG on CORRECT in predicting the turns in the SPX - just check it out yourself on the weekly SPX chart and the 2011 Bradley dates - this year, they have also been bang on correct too (thus far). They showed the SPX going up from the Bradley date in December until the Bradley date in April - then down from that date until the next Bradley date on June 12th - then it showed the SPX going up from that June date until the next Bradley date on July 28th. You can google Bradley dates of 2011 and see the chart's accuracy for 2011. Google it too for 2008 - it had the same accuracy for that year too!
ReplyDeletenot really, this year so far only the June 12 date is correct, the other dates dec 28 and Mar 16 are so far off I would not count as correct.
DeleteYou can see the Bradley date graph for 2011 and 2012 on this site:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.amanita.at/FAQ/FragenzumBradley-Siderograph/Bradley-Siderograph/
Check it out with the SPX weekly chart and see the accuracy of the turn dates:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&b=7&g=0&id=p79934714494
The accuracy can't really be argued when you review the facts of the Bradley dates graphs of 2011 and 2012 and the SPX.
If you bet solely on Bradley dates you will lose money.
ReplyDeleteI believe the best thing to do is to look at alignment of multiple indicators that you trust before making a trade.
ReplyDeletei just haven't found the indicators i trust yet.
LOL - I do NOT bet only on Bradley dates! I use MANY tools in predicting both the markets AND individual stocks! My track record for accuracy is extremely good (not that I can prove that UNLESS I divulge more info that I do not wish to do)! I post regularly on a different site - the people there can attest to my accuracy - however, I don't want to give out that site info on here.
ReplyDeleteThe Bradley date from Dec 2011 (of Dec 28th) showed the SPX going up until the next Bradley date which was in March for a major date and April for a mini Bradley date - and hmm, what did the SPX do from Dec 2011 to April 2012 - hmm, I wonder LOL (with that sell off dip we got in March). Then, the Bradley date in April showed the SPX going down until the next bradley date of June 12th (the Bradley date is not an exact date - it is plus or minus 4 to 7 trading days of the date that the turn occurs) - and hmm, what did the SPX do from mid April until June 4th (Bradley dates were April 23rd and June 12th) - hmm, I wonder LOL. Then from June 12th Bradley date, it shows the SPX going up until the next Bradley date of July 28th - and hmm, what has the SPX done since June until now - hmm, I wonder LOL. Ya, it's pretty accurate - it can't be argued! Even the mini Bradley dates on the chart that shows small turns in the SPX were accurate too!
Indicators I use and trust are full stochastics, MACD, RSI, keltner channel, bollinger bands, 4/9/18 day MA strategy (that gores back to the trading days of the 1960's), chart patterns, candlesticks, price support and price resistance, options plays, the 20/50/100/ and 200 day MA, and the Bradley dates. Lots of tools!
ReplyDeleteWell, here we are near end of day and the market is still holding strong. Perhaps next week the decline will actually begin.
ReplyDeletethe best indicators are bullish and bearish formations, trendlines, "key" moving averages and time counts.
ReplyDeletethe "out of the box" indicators do not work well cause if they did everyone would be making money. however, they some can be used to spot divergences...
My point is it's off by so many dates, and sometime weeks...that can be deadly if you bet the market using 2x ETFs, as many holding UVXY on this forum can tell you how fast these ETFs decay
ReplyDeleteand you can't just pick the Bradley dates that fit what you want to say and ignore the othere dates where they don't work, especially when they are major Bradley turning dates.
ReplyDeleteSo are we throwing in the towell for this week?
ReplyDeleteyes
DeleteI'm not here to argue anything with anybody! What I do works VERY well! So, it is good for me! I wrote on that site in April when AAPL was trading at $555 area on the day it reported earnings - that AAPL would beat and go up to either $610 or $620 that week - AAPL reported on Tuesday and on Wednesday it popped up to $618 as its high. Settled the week around $600. I predicted GMCR going down from $50 on the day it last reported earnings, and said it would go to $37 or LOWER AFTER it reported - it reported and went to under $30 the next day! I looked at the options for both AAPL and GMCR (plus other tools I use too that I haven't divulged on here) to know those price points of where they'd go after they reported! I have MANY more examples and if i directed people to go to that site on the dates I wrote about this - you'd see that for yourselves! Last June when the SPX was trading at over 1300, I wrote on that site and stated i feel the SPX will be going down to 1050 - it went to 1074 by Oct 4th - I was pretty close given that I stated that in June when the SPX was over 1300! LOL. I have many such examples that I can easily prove - BUT, I won't as I don't wish to share that site on here. But regardless, I'm not here to argue with anyone - people can use whatever that works for them! I just wanted to share that info re the Bradley dates as they have been quite accurate in predicting turns in the SPX in the past and it's just another useful tool that can be utilized! I use trend lines too - that's incorporated into "chart patterns" that I wrote about. I use other tools too - not just ONE tool or 2 tools LOL! Anyway, I just wanted to share that info on here. I'm not here to convince anyone of anything - people just need to do their own homework on things and see for themselves how the markets and stocks work - on a daily basis, weekly, monthly, etc.
ReplyDeleteAs far as today goes, the chance is high that S&P will close as a neutral candle...as for day to day movement it's not easy to predict that but I am holding my TVIX (bought this morning) ovenight because of the double divergence between price and MACD histogram (if you want to see the chart I will post it tonight, just click on my profile)...for the slightly longer term I think max for this rally is either today's high/1387 or 1201-6 and after that S&P will head down and retest 1267 (if uncle Ben start printing money then I will change my mind)...keep in mind that this is the opinion of a mad suicidal trader.
ReplyDeleteAI, as much as we want to, we can't fully appreciate you if you're holding back information from us...all my information a posted under my profile...and I also disclose that I am a mad suicidal trader, and I am no better than SC here sometime I get it right sometime I get it wrong
ReplyDeleteI meant 1401-6
ReplyDeleteSC,
ReplyDeleteyou sold your UVXY?
Thanks
Even if it dips here a little there should be a better pop tomorrow or Monday imo.
Deleteanother day another 4.5% down for uvxy...
DeleteWhat is a mere 4.5% when you are down 50%?
DeleteHVU heading for new low...this shit is crazy...getting maximum pain watching my capital evaporates...
ReplyDeleteI just don't understand how shamlessly market is going up with so much bad data coming out this morning!...
ReplyDeleteOk my target SnP going 1389
If you think logically about volatility, this is actually a good time of the month for S&P to go higher, because it won't affect HVU that much. Since HVU is on August and September contracts, and we are still in July, upward movement in S&P actually bodes well for August and especially September VIX. Downside really at this point is minimal unless you think that VIX will go below 15. However, if that happens historically it had been followed by spikes in VIX above 40. Think about it - the higher the S&P in July, the more chance that it will move lower in the coming months... therefore more likely that put/call ratio will increase and people will pay premium for put options.
ReplyDelete7 would be a gift for anyone holding.
ReplyDeleteuvxy now down 45% from initial buy... seriously to not have stops in place on this is just plain stupid
ReplyDeletewe will see big downday on HVU tomorrow after reverse split...pain pain and freaking pain...that's all....
ReplyDeleteDoctorBoom,
ReplyDeleteI appreciate that - that you guys have no clue about me or where I post or of my accuracy! If I wanted to divulge the info, then you guys would be able to see what I'm saying :) Actually, I'll show some posts i wrote in April on AAPL on the day it was reporting after the close - and on what the SPX tends to do during the week of the monthly options expiration - and on something accurate I wrote too on LNKD - so, here are some posts (with the date and time of day they were posted):
April 23rd, 2012 at 11:13 am
During options expiration week (for monthly options ex), the bias is usually to the upside – so, normally yes, you will have a positive week for options ex week – and yes, often Friday of options ex is an up day – and yes, often the Monday after options ex Friday (for the monthly expirations) is a down day.
April 24th, 2012 at 1:27 pm
re AAPL:
If they beat, they can easily move up 10% – and just that kind of a move would put AAPL back above $600 Oh and guess where the highest volume is right now for Friday’s options weekly expiration for AAPl – why, it’s at $600 showing over 4400 calls there in volume other volumes for calls that are the closest for 4000 in Vol are in the 2000′s – those prices for AAPl are at $590 and at $620 – so, I think AAPL will be going UP after earnings ;)
Sent: Tuesday, April 24, 2012 4:51 PM
Subject: aapl
hi
just wanted to give you an update on aapl:
aapl went down today to $555 as the low – closed today at $560. reported stellar earnings at 430 pm and is now trading at $599 in after hours
see?? what did I tell you on sunday: aapl will beat earnings (on tuesday) AND will be back up at $600 right after that
it could get to $620 by Friday OR be stuck at around $600 (call options for the weekly options expiration are showing either $600 or $620 for a closing price for this friday).
DoctorBoom,
ReplyDeleteHad to break up my pot - so, here's more:
April 24th, 2012 at 3:21 pm
As I wrote yesterday about LNKD going soon to $96 – it did that TODAY and then bounced up from there (from $96.32) – I knew $96 was a support point from 2 weeks ago, so i expected it would go there once it went below $99 yesterday.
April 24th, 2012 at 3:23 pm
I tried to short LNKD in my itrade account today when it was close to $101 but I didn’t have enough margin and wasn’t allowed to short
April 23rd, 2012 at 10:02 am
lnkd performed exactly as you predicted..
April 23rd, 2012 at 10:17 am
re LNKD:
Yep, pretty funny hey?! ;)
I also stated last week that the markets would / should be down today (after options ex day of Friday) plus stated 2 to 3 weeks ago of the Bradley dates showing the markets going up from April 11th to April 23rd when the next mini Bradley occurs (today) and shows markets going down from there into June (it won’t be a straight line down though but the “bias” will be to the downside until the next Bradley date of June 12th – which then shows the markets going up til July 28th, the next Bradley date).
DoctorBoom,
ReplyDeleteAnd here's the last part:
Here's something I wrote last Friday to someone who bought COG at $40.61 - I wrote this in a post yesterday regarding what I had written to her last Friday on COG (last Friday, its high price was $40.88):
July 18th, 2012 at 4:10 pm
re COG:
I wrote this to you last week:
the weekly chart has the 4 week ma at $38.97 – this will be over $39 for next week – but, cog usually tries to touch its 4 week ma every week – so, expect cog to come down next week to touch that 4 week ma. also, options expiration show cog closing next friday at $40.
also, cog has gone up 6 straight weeks in a row now!! that is a lot of weeks in a row for being up! so, chances are, it’s time to have a down week – and this week closed at $40.59 which means that if next week is a down week, it will close underneath $40.59 next week – but, think of the options – shows $40 – so, most likely, cog will come down next week to go to around $38.80 to $40.88 (the high of today) but will close the week around $40. so, if you can get out next week at over your buy in price, then just do it!! as it most likely will not be able to get over $41 by any significance if in fact it IS able to get over $41 next week before it comes down again. $41.25 is an option as that is where the second highest price level is for the options. BUT, resistance is there too! so, if you’re lucky of it getting to over $41, then sell it. if it gets to just under $41 (like between say $40.88 of todays high price to $40.99) and falls back, then sell it!
also, there is a reversal in price candlestick showing on the weekly chart – either a hanging man or a dragonfly – and that signifies a reversal in price to what the current trend has been – and for the last 6 weeks, the trend has been up – so with this kind of cs showing, it may signal that trend is now going to change.
———————————————
Yesterday, its high price was $40.98 and then it came down!
Yes there was a bull flag showing on the chart – BUT, there was A LOT of resistance in the $41′s (which I did write to you too) which meant the bull flag was most likely not going to get realized! Also, the MACD histogram has been coming down in the last week as COG has been going up in price – the MACD doing this means the stock will be coming down very soon!
Options now shows COG still going to $40 BUT the second level it has COG going to is $37.50 – so, for now, I can’t say whether it will be kept at $40 by Friday or go lower. MACD and stochastics are going down – suggests downside to come for COG.
----------------------------------------------
COG today went to $40.17 and then down to $38.45 as its low of today and closed at $39.38
Anyway, just a few things as proof ;) It doesn't matter to me if I'm believed or not because i know my own track record and can prove very easily things I'm claiming ;) Hopefully no one from that site is reading this right now as they'll know whom this is off that site LOL ;)
UVXY must not break down below the current sideway range of 6.53 to 7.10, because target of break down is another 57 cents down, normally the chance is high that after a sideway range the current will continue so eventually I think it will break down but I don't think it's ready to break down yet so when it bounces back toward the top range around 7 to 7.10 I will take profit and reload later when it broke down another 55-57 cents...on the other hand should it break out over 7.10 I will hop on for a quick ride.
ReplyDeleteDB, what avg. price you holding? Google weakening AH, so this topping pattern may be about done.
DeleteI have been in and out of UVXY, if you click my profile you will see my previous posting of s sideway breakdown and my prediction of target of 6.65-6.7. I couldn't resist my suicidal urge so I bought it at 6.75 as hedge for my long position, this time I will stick with my plan (I think), my profit taking and cut loss level are already posted above...and this morning I also added 1000 shares of TVIX @3.22 because I just couldn't resist my suicidal urge...as usual I have my stop loss level set since I don't want to end up on rope.
Deletebtw UVXY ended up at 6.66, 1 cent shy of my target...the devil made it stop there.
DeleteThanks DB...btw, what's the diff between tvix and uvxy. Both say 2x vix futures? What's suicidal about mid 6's...now 12's that's another matter.
DeleteThey are basically the same thing eventhough TVIX is an 2x ETN and UVXY is a 2x ETF...currently the premium on TVIX is more than 10% so it can easily fall victim as a short target, ideally I should have just added more UVXY but since I just planned it as a quick in and out trade and I like to think of owning 1000 instead of 500 of something...lol, it's just one of those silly thing that you feel doing when you're bored and waiting for some thing to bounce.
DeleteDB, I like your attitude. Thanks for clarifying the difference.
DeleteHey AI, we would appreciate more if you post live trades here.
ReplyDeleteDoctorBoom,
ReplyDeleteI don't ever post my trades - EVER! I just help people with giving advice on things when they ask me! I'm asked daily - and the majority of my calls are correct! So, that's all I can tell you ;)
SC,
ReplyDeleteThis SPX negative period has been disappointing for everyone since it hasn't occurred as expected.
We could use a solid pop in the next day or 2 to be able to have confidence to stay with this trade long enough to reach the original goals for UVXY.
I don't see how selling next week (you mentioned the other day) and then re-entering is going to make much difference now that this trade is so under water.
Do you really believe that a noticeable pop to the 8's or 9's can truly occur tomorrow and Monday? Thoughts?
I am hoping your positive cycle for next week is wrong so that we can make a go of it.
It's looking pretty bleak right now...
thanks in advance for your insight.
Listen, do not rely on anyone to time the market for you. I believe SC will prove to be right in the next 2 months but to time the market exactly right is impossible. His analysis of charts can't pick up the daily news and change of investor sentiment as a result of news. I made the mistake of buying HVU too early and am stuck with it, but I will not be a fool to give it now to someone when VIX is so low. I will have to trade in and out once or twice on the way up in order to lower my average, but the spike will come. We will lose another 10% due to contango by mid august, but by then I expect we will have a significant reversal. I base my view on the fundamentals. If you listen to the bulls, everyone is getting overconfident while the world economy is in perils. Just how are people going to continue to consume with all the austerity measures in Europe, stagnating incomes and unemployment in the US? It can't go forever. Financial institutions, corporations and stock market pumpers are the only ones benefiting from QE, not consumers. So, I firmly believe that all the talk about another round of QE is utter BS. Long term bonds are already at record low yields, so of course stocks are being pumped, because there is no return in bonds. But does the FED want to destroy the Bond market? I don't think it's gonna happen. So stocks are up partly because there is nowhere else to put money to get a return. You are getting nothing for bonds. Le's see how this winds down. Certainly a great learning experience, and very expensive for some of us.
DeleteI should know better as well. I got in too early with UVXY against my normal analysis and now I am trying to figure out how to salvage this one.
DeleteDefinite learning's from this one. Thanks.
The problem for UVXY on a short term basis is that instead of rising during the negative SPX cycles it has been consolidating sideways. I do think it can pop during the next few days but it doesn't make sense to expect too much, and next week does not look promising for UVXY either.
ReplyDeleteAs I have been saying I am looking to better position for Aug. So I plan to sell on a pop and look to pick up lower around July 30th.
SC,
DeleteI understand what you are saying but your cycles have not been good for short term trading to date; they are hopefully better for the mid-term trades. Thus, your approach does not make sense to me.
I will either stick it out through next week or sell out and lick my wounds. Then try to trade in and out during the upswing in August when it comes to recover the loss.
SC,
DeleteI forgot to ask...
1/What would UVXY need to pop up to for you to sell and then reposition.
2/What lower level are you looking to re-position at for UVXY.
Tks in advance
I will look at the prices as things unfold next. I plan to buy around July 30th at a lower level. I have to see it unfold more to gauge the price level over the next week.
DeleteDo you still see UVXY at $28 by end of August without the date slipping further into September etc..?
DeleteUS Dollar Index bullish cup with handle pattern:
ReplyDeletehttp://humblestudent777.blogspot.com/2012/07/red-backboned.html
What happend to the days where any price below 12 was worth holding for fear of missing the wild ride to riches?
ReplyDeleteRegardless what anyone says, the fact is we should all have what we believe is a reasonable stop loss for all our trades and not let it ride down like it has on us.
DeleteA painful learning.
Guess what SC has no idea what is going to happen NOBODY does.. cycles, elliot, technicals, astrology.. magic 8 ball. All these posts are GUESSES some more educated than others but guesses just the same. I love when people ask "SC what do you see for later this week or next week?" it would be so refreshing if you said I HAVE NO CLUE !!!!
ReplyDeleteSC
ReplyDeletelets not forget this was you earlier this month and I quote: you
"I plan to sell everything at $28 because that is my minimum target for July. Mid-July at the earliest. I've done the analysis many different ways, and they all come up with the same answer so I'm completely confident"
Well, technically he still has 8 more trading days to reach $28 although he has already stated it won't happen until August now.
DeleteQuestion: SC has been predominantly wrong on his cycles thus far; why would anyone take his word at this point regarding next weeks cycles? I have a trusted analyst who says it will get ugly starting next week, and his track record has been predominantly correct as of late. Who you gonna call...
ReplyDeleteIs there a link to this trusted analyst so we can expand our knowledge to help us make a good decision for next week?
DeleteSHort or longer term???
DeleteYou don't have to believe in anyone, just read my post I am claiming next week bearish based on my experience with market behaviour..most s&p will go is 1389.....
DeleteI'm not going to flood his inbox. He has negative trend to Aug. 7...then kaboom into election.
Deletehe says it will feel like the start of something substantial, but will recover quickly...be nimble
DeleteHeading into a high before a pullback then final move higher into 6-7 August.
ReplyDeletehttp://changeintrend.wordpress.com
Thx
Anthony
Click on my profile, I have some suggested items for you to cross check prior to making any trades.
ReplyDeleteThanks DB..very good blog and thoughts. Might wanta change the *oversold* to *overbought* on macd..
DeleteRSI that is...also small neg. div. on rsi
DeleteOh ok, thanks for pointing that out...I forked up sometime.
DeleteDOW............
ReplyDeletehttp://img256.imageshack.us/img256/8468/dowp.jpg
Keep in mind that most likely we will gradually decline into sept-oct, which will result in a gradual decline in volatility, thus will be a lose lose situation for all of you holding volatility etf's
ReplyDeleteThere is nothing as bullish as a failed bearish signal.
ReplyDeleteSoon my friends...very soon.
ReplyDeletewell it looks like ZIGZAG is predicting next week after monday, we bounce to August 9th, for a new high of around ~1400 ish. Dont know if that is what SC is looking for as well. It turns out for sure, UVXY will be on the plate ready for the butcher for sure, like a drop to below 14 for VIX is a possbility.
ReplyDeleteThanks!
No offence to any of the posters here but i don't think many on here have a clue as to how the markets work! The site I post on, I predicted last June that the SPX would drop to 1050 last year (when the SPX was over 1300 in June) - it dropped to 1074 on Oct 4th. being 24 points off when the call was made at 300 points higher, is not at all bad - and it was not a "guess" - it was based on certain criteria like fibonnaci levels for one (plus others too). On Oct 4th. on that site I post on with others, a person on there posted that day at around 10 am EST that that was it - the low is in - he said: buy everything today as this is it - this is the low! This was based on the tools he uses (some are the same as the tools that I use) - it isn't too difficult to state where the markets are going each day or each week - you just need to know the right tools to use to know this info! You might be off by 5 points here and there on the SPX (on a daily to weekly basis) BUT you're not going to be completely Off altogether by huge margins! Last week, I wrote that the SPX was going to 1370 by this Friday (as this is what the options were showing last week for this Friday - today, the options are showing EITHER 1370 OR 1380 for tomorrow). Well, here it is at just over 1370 and just under 1380 with 1380 being hit today!
ReplyDeleteI wrote on that site in February and March (when people were asking me about buying HVU and UVXY - 2 ETFs I introduced to the board by the way - I introduced HVU last August and UVXY in January) - I told them not to buy either one until May as that is when the markets will go down big and thus, the VIX will spike which will have UVXY and HVU spiking too! From end of April, UVXY was $12 and in May, it was at $24 - so, doubled their money for anyone who acted on the info I told them a few months earlier in February.
This stuff isn't hard - it just takes a lot of tools to work with AND great observations of how the markets work on a daily and weekly basis (they're all manipulated - and you just need to figure out how "they" - the big boys - do their manipulations) - plus a great memory too! It isn't as easy as to say its just chalking all the right calls up to "guesses" - not when the predictions made are so accurate - and so often!
Good for you, Al. Very proud to be in your company. You are the man. Dare I say genius.
DeleteKeep up the good work...and self flagellation.
hi Al,
DeleteSo what is your forecast for UVXY next week and until the end of August? ie. how should we be playing this UVXY instrument over the next 1.5 months (ideally with targets). Thanks in advance.
Al! Dude, you need to go back to the Yahoo board man..... So.. What the heck is your POINT? Other than exaggerating yourself..
ReplyDeleteWhen a person is hiding something from others the either he is bluffing to make he looks better than he really is or he doesn't want to share with others what he knows...either way, it's bad and you don't want to associate with people like that because obviously there is no mutual benefit can be derived from it.
ReplyDeleteA person is only as good as what he shares with others...I would prefer to associate with the so called people "who don't have a clue as to how the market work" (as AI termed it) but willing to share openly with others than with the so call 'smart' people who hide information from me.
As for me, I share openly with everyone to the best of my best ability (you can see that when you click my profile), and the same goes for SC...I appreciate the work SC put in everyday to share his knowledge with others.
I believe in the simple approach and sharing with others so that we can all improve together. In all my blogs I try my best not to impress or overwhelm people; rather, I'd prefer to get my message across in the simplest way as possible so everyone can understand & improve, and at the same time I mixed in some humour...we only live once so let help each others and make the best of it.
ReplyDeleteCould someone please send the chart from ZZ or link to his blog. Thanks.
ReplyDeleteHey mce here is zig zags blog -
Deletehttp://zigzagcycle.blogspot.com/
thanks
DeleteHi SC:
ReplyDeleteJust curious if you still plan on holding through Monday, or will take whatever pop you can get to lighten your position?
Thanks for your thoughts.
-Bicky
I'll see how it goes today - probably unload soon. SPX finally dipping with the negative cycle, but that cycle is finishing soon. UVXY just shuffled sideways last few days, and doesn't have that spark in it yet. The way it is acting suggests the timing is not ready yet.
DeleteHVU is already trading at $18+......wohooooo.....wait a minute that's the just the reverse split with HVU this morning :(
ReplyDeleteWOWOWOW, HVU $19!!!!! SC, you da man! (hope you still have a sense of humour, lol).
ReplyDeleteTook profit on 1000 shares of TVIX (bought yesterday) @3.33, still holding on to UVXY, but probably will take profit between 7 to 7.10. If UVXY can cross above 7.11 I will reload for a quick 50 cents ride.
ReplyDeleteHad a hard time selling the few units I had of HVU, my broker is doing all trades manually and has a huge call volume because of this.
ReplyDeleteJust took profit on UVXY @6.97
ReplyDeleteSILVER
ReplyDeletehttp://img713.imageshack.us/img713/7641/silverw.jpg
METALS
DeleteAll metal traders should be on high alert for any buy signals to their analysis~ IMHO
The S&P target of 1366ish (2nd chart posted under my profile's blog) has been reached, if S&P can break below this level then next target is 1357...but it's a BIG IF right now, will wait and see.
ReplyDeletelast opportunity to sell...this afternoon's float up will crush your profits...
ReplyDeleteDoctorBoom,
ReplyDeleteWhat is your target for SnP now after touching 1366?
SC,
Have you sold your position?
Thanks
Waiting to see if mkt has some more downside.
DeleteMy target after 1366 is 1357
Deletethat is assuming if S&P can cross below 1366...that's a big IF right now.
DeleteWhy is everyone in a rush to sell the small UVXY up so far. if we follow the Europe and Asia markets today, the SPX should be down between 10-13 points by eod today.
ReplyDeleteFriday afternoon is light volume, thus float up and will result in the UVXY to decline rapidly...next week is a positive week for SPX and the UVXY will be crushed..
Deletehow is next week be positive? SC is forecasting positive. Look at all the negative div? I say we will have a negative week, make no sense to have a positive next week.
DeleteGL
Tks Unknown. It seems the forecasters below are evenly split for next week. It should be interesting to see what happens.
DeleteThe following believe SPX will be up next week:
SC, Zigzag
The following believe SPX will be down next week:
ChangeInTrend, NightOwl
The following could go either way:
Redline and Bradley Turn Date down is July 29th although they can be off by a few days
Just like the prior FED meetings, the Big BOYZ will use the QE or more stimulus excuses to drive this market higher, and then selloff after the meeting.
ReplyDeletethey got all you guys in a pattern, think they will be stupid enough to continue the same pattern to make money or turn it?
Deleteanyways, chart says we go lower, look at all the negative divergence.
DoctorBoom,
ReplyDelete7.11 is getting close.....
METALS
ReplyDeleteAll metal traders should be on high alert for any buy signals to their analysis~ IMHO
Joed, got a time frame for potential low in gold before take off? im seeing next week as a potential turn.
DeleteAM
DeleteI am with U........but see a choppy up start! Best.......joed
pretty much recent few weeks just trending upwards? no powerful surge ala january '12?
Deletethanks!
Bought XIV @12.81, set stop loss @12.76. Reason is because UVXY is now @7.11 (ie top of side way range I posted below)...high risk trade.
ReplyDeletetop of sideway range I posted under my profile
ReplyDeletestop loss for XIV filled...bought UVXY @7.16, set stop loss @7.06
ReplyDeleteLately breakout targets on UVXY have fell short...I am hoping this time it will be different, but I am not counting too much on it.
ReplyDeleteThe Fear is back (for now) - Europe comes through again!
ReplyDeleteHopefully, UVXY can build on this fear for the next few weeks...
ReplyDeleteRaised stop-sell level to 7.2, ie 2 cents below SMA 50 (1 min period)
ReplyDeleteJust a couple of more days like today and everyone can breka even on their trades : )
ReplyDeleteaint happening according to SC forecast. 1 day wonder
DeleteAdvance/decline data so far have not reflect any fear YET: number of new highs today so far are greater than new lows for all 3 markets.
ReplyDeleteI'm out of UVXY at $7.34. Will look for another entry later.
ReplyDeletehi SC
Deleteyou totally out of UVXY or partially?
Thanks!
Completely out. I want to see how the markets unfold next week, and will be looking to position for August.
ReplyDeleteDo you still see Monday in the negative cycle? Thanks!
ReplyDeleteThe negative cycle ends either today or could carry into Monday, but either way I don't see much more downside for SPX short term.
DeleteWhere do you see SPX after next week's rally?
DeleteI want to review that some more.
DeleteEMINI SEPT
ReplyDeleteSupport 1355 to 1350......
so SC you took aprox. a 30-40% loss from your initial entry ?? So what does that tell us and tell you that your cycles have been wrong all along
ReplyDeleteNo, my avg was much lower, but still a loss in any case. I decided to reposition because the timing does not seem quite ready yet. The short term SPX cycles have worked well, but there hasn't been much volatility yet. So I will wait for things to mature some more.
DeletePart of the problem lately is that it has often been a slow grinding process for SPX. Many sideways days.
DeleteI think you are taking money out at the wrong time. Next week could be bad.
DeleteNext week will be a down week. I think your negative cycle has now come into play...
ReplyDeletewhen the market pivots it usually plays out in the same direction for atleast a few days....
ReplyDeleteThanks to averaging in slowly and staying small, I was able to get out with profits in UVXY.
ReplyDeleteOf the 10/10 portion I was holding --
(3/10) @ 7.06
(3/10) @ 7.17
(4/10) @ 7.30
Only managed a +3% profit on the whole adventure, but it beats the loss I was looking at before we rallied.
I see some positive/sideways momentum into AAPL earnings, and would love to short any potential pop on Wednesday. I'm not sure I will be able to wait until July 30th to re-enter, similar to SC, but will probably start adding in slowly on Wed/Thurs.
Historically gold bottoms at the end of July and rallies in the Fall. Interestingly, gold was seen as somewhat of a safe-haven bid today when the markets were going down. Perhaps the market will top and gold will bottom in the next 6 business days lining both up for some great trades.
Earlier this year I put on a HUGE position in TVIX in early January and held it for a few weeks watching in dismay. Remember -- these things can burn you if you aren't careful. Have respect for them. SC respects them and would rather take a small loss than the potentially larger loss he sees coming. Staying small and averaging in really helps to keep you sane holding these vehicles.
I hope everyone has a good weekend and comes back refreshed.
UVXY might on spike on Monday due to geopolitical turbulence, but betting on war to erupt is a fools game.
-Bicky
Hi SC:
DeleteDo you see any scenario where you will jump back in UVXY earlier than July 30th?
The way I've drawn the descending wedge, if UVXY gets above 7.60 tomorrow it might be worth a shot long with a tight stop.
Thanks for your thoughts.
-Bicky