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Wednesday, July 18, 2012

$SPX - Major Resistance

SPX is trading at major resistance, and likely to fail.  The negative short term cycle is underway as of yesterday.  A short term downside target is outlined for the next several days.

15min Chart

144 comments:

  1. Just curious why the circle area and not the orange support line?

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  2. I use forks extensively, and the market almost never hits the same line exactly twice in a row. The support should be in the 1335-38 area just above the orange line.

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    Replies
    1. Hi,
      1/If SPX drops to the 1335-38 area, what is the expectation for UVXY at that point?
      2/Will you start trading in and out of UVXY now or are you still holding long until it reaches $28?

      Tks in advance.

      Delete
  3. Just curious ...what is the average profit here from viewers that has been made since January?

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  4. UVXY should rise for several days into the $8's. I will do a few select short term UVXY trades around turning points in my short term SPX cycles. It is just a matter of positioning for the bigger picture in UVXY. I am confident in the bigger picture targets and timing.

    Right now we are in a negative cycle, but next week is positive. After that things become very negative, and I have not seen the larger cycles this negative since 2007. We're at the start of a major bear market.

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    Replies
    1. if the VIX doesn't spike today or tomorrow will you change your strategy?

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    2. if this is a negative cycle, I can't wait to see the positive ones. Thru the roof, baby!!

      SC you are in deep manure when you & our very own Jaytard share the same opinions. Jay thought this week gonna be a 'monumental shock' for the markets. The only monumental shock is to the bears following your cycles.

      Major oops!!!

      Delete
  5. it's over with a potential crash pattern:
    http://humblestudent777.blogspot.com/2012/07/linsanity-over-at-ny.html

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    Replies
    1. that particular stock or the overall market?

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  6. God, cycles not really working, market still going up!

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  7. SC,

    SnP is at 1370..broke the resistance! now what?

    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. No it hasn't. Trading around the top resistance line.

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  8. Now the cycle get's pushed too October and November.

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    Replies
    1. No, still on track. Same timelines.

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  9. My cycle turned yesterday. SPX is 4 points higher right now. The short term cycle is still likely to work just fine imo.

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  10. The only positive thing so far is UVXY seems to be holding up somewhat for a change even though VIX is down 3%.

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  11. SC sorry mate this trade has been nothing short of an unmitigated disaster

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  12. My box generated buy signal on SPX on the 15th of July off of the daily chart. Buy signal on weekly chart on june 24th. Prior to this it had weekly buy signal on october 9th 2011.

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  13. holy shit...oil inventories are down 4.7 million! expectation was for around 1 million...

    Thaat's crazy...we are screwed!

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  14. Good Call SC, the VIX futures are behaving differently today, markets went into green but futures did not move much. Could be a sideways slop till the beige book at 2pm.

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    Replies
    1. true about the VIX futures...but I thought there was supposed to be a sudden drop as of yesterday or today at the latest which would boost our VIX futures versus just being on the defensive yet again.
      just keeping it real even though it hurts to do so.

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    2. Yes, agree. Selloff into close today likely imo.

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    3. if it doesn't happen, there's always tomorrow or next week or next month.

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    4. i think what you are trying to say is that the cycles may be good at predicting levels but very poor with the timing for those levels which makes it interesting but not a trading tool.

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  15. SC,

    S & P now for sure have broken resistance here...is it?

    Thanks

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  16. SC, when would be the best time to buy the last batch of UVXY today or after next weeks cycle?

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    Replies
    1. UVXY act differently than SPX sometimes, look at today, SPX strong, UVXY strong, doesnt make sense. I dont know if SC is basing his forecast mainly on SPX. If he is, with his mention of positive cycle next week, UVXY doesnt mean it have to act negative next week. Just my 2cents

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  17. I think UVXY pops into the $8's short term, but the SPX cycle is positive next week so next week looks better, and in tune with the short term cycle.

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    Replies
    1. This comment has been removed by the author.

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    2. Cycles are weak trading guides...hold uvxy until 1st week August

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    3. positive the whole week?

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    4. well looking at the forcast, since this week suppose to be weak, and UVXY drop like rock bottom. With next week being positive, LOL, UVXY may hit sky high. No Jinx

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    5. If past performance in predictive of future...cycles are poor for trading, and next week uvxy will rocket.

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  18. The short term cycles for SPX have worked almost perfectly. Negative from July 3rd 1372 to low at 1325, then positive until yesterday.

    Now negative.

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    Replies
    1. Sure bro, that's why you stacked trades in the 12's & 10's. Spot on cycles.

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    2. If you had advised to wait for the day markets are up, and vix futures up...in alignment with cycles as a guide, you'd be golden.

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    3. I am trading the larger cycle for UVXY not the short term cycles. These are different things completely.

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    4. Start trading short term...you'd make yourself and followers some coin. That said, todays action very positive for holder/hopers.

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    5. That is true. I have shown both the short term and the larger cycle. Short term profits are nice but the real money is going to be made on the larger cycle, and it is far more important to understand.

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  19. market is rising and making new intra day high

    don't understand what is going on...where is Ben? he supposed to do another session today...has he finished?

    Thanks

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  20. Who cares if the short term SPX have worked, or continue to work. You do realize that in 6 months UVXY is down almost 90%. All that matters is making money, I want to maximize my profits not ride "cycles"

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    Replies
    1. I was bearish for UVXY at higher levels, and warned about it then. In fact for most of June I was trading XIV, and made profits.

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    2. So you thought there was not much more downside from 10's in UVXY yet you chose to trade XIV and make money ??? So totally going against what you've being posting on the blog ?

      (If you say it's going to be up, or down, or sideways or flat. Basically if you say everything, you can never be wrong)

      Delete
    3. No, I was trading XIV from the June low to after the Greek election. The trades were posted and made money.

      late June and July I have been trading UVXY.

      Delete
  21. There you go Ben said in his speech that he doesn't see economy slip into recession...one more fake reason to rally...we are screwed guys...someone mentioned here that he thinks that UVXY will reach around 5.60 or so before bottom...

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    1. stock...today's action on vix futures is stable. I've neen a naysayer for a long time, but think now is a good time to slip in a trade on uvxy.

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    2. There will be no bottom for UVXY, it a short ever since it was introduce, look at the chart when it got first started at a price of 200$+ to current price. Any bounce inbetween is just noise or good opportunities to add shorts. Unless this thing bounce past the introduction high of 200+, the theory stands.

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    3. BB...it's for trading, not holding, so past doesn't matter.

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    4. holding for shorts seems to be working since it first introduce if you look at the chart. holding for long is another story lol

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    5. I've made a bundle on the swings over the last few weeks. If I had held...
      There may be a time for a longer hold with stops, and that time is now. Until now, just quick bucks.

      Delete
  22. SC,

    I want to say this, no matter how much I respect and apperciate your hard work and charity work to fellow members; you should consider this as your inability to see the cycles, and you should accept that this was yet another failure of your chart reading or analysis and you should revisit your tactics and procedure that you use to see market cycles...

    even if VIX jumps up from here, I will not call that as your call..eventually VIX will go up, even an idiot can predict that...you know what i mean! since you failed in your timing and supports, you should revisit your techniques...I have noticed multiple times that whatever you have call have gone reverse and it is quite possible that your doing reverse analysis...people would have made tons of money by just doing exact opposite of you said!...

    Sad but truth...

    Peace...time to thing not to react!

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  23. Guys..let's not get into symantic arguments.

    SC,
    What you are hearing from the group is that although SPX cycles are interesting, they would like more detailed focus/charts on the futures trading instruments (ie. UVXY, HIV etc..) to help everyone's trades to be positive versus the negative position most of us are currently in assuming we followed the UVXY reco's around $12. We would like to make money on trading such instruments versus losing money on them based on your cycle analysis.
    Thanks.

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    Replies
    1. what I am trying to say here is; we follow SC and listen and trust his judgement sometimes and learn from him, same time he should also listen to us and learn or improve...if we are showing him that he has been doing reverse analysis, he should step back and review..that's all..it's not bashing..it's education..

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    2. stockboom,
      my post was not mean for just you :)...it was meant for the group of us that are trying to give SC some advice on how his cycles can best help us which is basically what you just said.

      What I would really like to hear from SC is how do the people that followed his reco's for UVXY in the 12's (give or take 10 percent) should best trade the current situation to minimize this negative predicament, learn from it and move forward.

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    3. My trade in UVXY is designed to catch the larger negative cycle. It is not a day trade. I have always been clear about this.

      However, I will point out the short term movements for UVXY also, and it is not difficult to make money on this trade. It is simple but patience is required.

      Delete
  24. But...look my friends. spx up 14 from lod, and uvxy positive. How long since this has been the case? Good sign.

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    Replies
    1. isnt it option expire today for VIX or something like that. tomorrow UVXY bend over a posibilities

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    2. valid point...but HVU is already trading on August month..but yes there could be some selling going into tomorrow...

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  25. DOW

    http://img843.imageshack.us/img843/8470/dowrj.jpg

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  26. that sign has come after 40% loss on your capital...I would have made a better gamble...

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  27. S & P already targeting 1380 now...

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  28. SPX at 1374...quite a jump today. not very good for this negative cycle unless there is a sharp turn at end of day. Yes somehow UVXY is still positive. Go figure.

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  29. Sure bro, that's why you stacked trades in the 12's & 10's. Spot on cycles.

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    Replies
    1. When all is said and done I am going to post the gain on this trade, and it will be astounding.

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    2. Hi SC

      Just my 2cents from observing for a long time here:
      The only way I see this happening is SC was trading portion, initially maybe 1%, then 1.5%, then 2%. Like start from small, this is the only way to get a huge gain now from SC cycle work. But this info was not told (which is critical) and only was told we will crash now everytime, which it can mis-lead readers.

      I think next time if possible, SC, if not too much trouble, you should let reader know just how much portion you plan on going into a trade when you mention crash again. I hope that is not too much to ask, consider you already let us know when you enter and exit the trade.


      Thanks!

      Delete
  30. how can the cycles be working when the market is keep making new highs?

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  31. SC,

    you convinced that S & P broke resistance now?

    Thanks

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  32. Wait and see. The market is about the take a hit to 1334 to 1338.

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  33. SC,

    What is the point of this blog?

    You are not explaining how you arrive to your calls. When calls are bad and targets/timing are not met you dont explain that either. Targets and timing are pushed out further and further to fit your picture better.

    You have good intentions but its really not very productive monologue at this point. Instead of trying to give your readers fish - give them a fishing pole ... or at least tell them how they can make one or something?

    If you are saying that im wrong and your methods really work and we dont see full picture (all trades) then at least disclose your portfolio performance or a simple log with trades taken in the past and % gain would shut everyone up.

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  34. HERE WAS MY SIMPLE QUESTION!

    "Just curious ...what is the average profit here from viewers that has been made since January?"

    NO REPLY...........IT IS OBVIOUS NO ONE HAS MADE ANY MONEY AND THAT MEANS THEY HAVE LOST MONEY!

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    Replies
    1. There are daytraders and swing traders here. I show the charts, and cycles.

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    2. I posted my results, but SC keeps deleting my posts.

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    3. SC

      Thats my point they are following your information and trades.......let's see what the REAL results are!

      Delete
  35. SC,

    Read below link...it is very scary analysis but if that comes true then GOD saves us...but after reading explain how 50 days can cross 200 days ( i.e. 50 days MA can go below 200 days MA)....

    If this scenario plays out..they show the historical results...

    http://www.forexpros.com/analysis/s-p:-the-'ultimate'-death-cross-130039

    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. we will be dead before that happens...or Ben can just QE before that happen...non event.

      Delete
  36. GJ,
    In my humble opinion, you need to back down just a little.

    This is a free blog about cycle analysis and not a site that is going to tell you what/how to trade. We are all big boys/girls here....what you trade with the information is on YOU.

    Personally, I'm down in a big way right now, but that isn't on SC...it is my choice. I do, however, appreciate the insight and analysis from SC and think that I'll come out very far ahead in the end. However, that is my opinion based upon my look at SC's data as well as others and my personal choices in how I trade.

    If that doesn't sit well with you, you may need to find another blog rather than repeating the same question over and over.

    Again, just my two cents...

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    Replies
    1. James.

      Get real..........this is a simple ?!!! Is anyone in 7 months made any money! It goes to the heat of the analysis! It's obvious the answer is they lost and blew out accounts as UNKNOWN has not been allowed to post results! I guess you are out of the games because of all your gains and you do not need anymore! lol READERS be aware!

      Delete
  37. I am planning on selling UVXY on a pop into the $8's to $9.50 area. The reason is that next week I have positive SPX cycles.

    Despite this my targets at $28 and $40 remain the same for the timeframes outlined.

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    Replies
    1. So I would pick them up again later next week for the large play I am targeting.

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    2. are you selling your entire position?

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  38. So if your average is in the 10's and you plan on selling, You are willing to take a loss on this trade ??

    (then what re-position?)

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    Replies
    1. Yes I would to reposition later next week.

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    2. who knows..SC may get lucky and the spike this week may reach the 10's. :)
      This assumes we have significant SPX down draft this afternoon...

      Delete
  39. Hi SC

    what is making you sell here for such small movement? pretty sure you drill this to our brain.

    "I am trading the larger cycle for UVXY not the short term cycles."

    This certain change of action isnt normal.


    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. speculation: Maybe he plans on selling UVXY net short for next week because he thinks the drop will be significant and then go back in to catch the major ride higher late next week. just my 2 cents....SC can speak for himself.

      Delete
  40. Yes, that is dissapointing that you are exiting your position despite your prior remarks of liking UVXY at any price and waiting for the big move.

    How low do you thing UVXY will get during next weeks positive cycle?

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  41. At least we now have a clear plan of action, thank you.
    We just need UVXY to pop now to be able to execute on it..
    When the positive cycle hits next week, do you have a target area for UVXY to fall to before you get back in for the larger spike?

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  42. SC

    MAy I suggest you allow UNKNOWN to post his results as it is at the core of your credibility! NOT allowing it should wake readers up!

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    Replies
    1. GJ,Are you working for IRS?

      Delete
    2. srikanth

      Are you working for SC? Let's be honest here before many more get blown out.......OR let's show that ANYONE has made any money! What is everyone afraid of...the truth?

      Delete
  43. I would look to reposition on a pop simply because the short term cycles for SPX have worked well. I am just fine tuning the entry for the larger play which is far more important.

    From now into Monday looks good for UVX, but next week after I believe it will likely settle back down again.

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  44. SC has been deleting my posts for many months now. I am not trying to be disrespectful, but I am critical of his calls. None of my posts are meant to attack anyone.

    Now, I mentioned to SC many times, when he goes to an extreme with his calls, the markets always do the opposite. I use it as a contrarian indicator.

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  45. The difference has to do with swing vs. daytrading. My calls for large moves are not meant for daytrading.

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    Replies
    1. SC

      We heard that explanation SC so let's allow UNKNOWN to post both and viewers can decide for themselves rather than a polka!

      Delete
  46. Guys, from the long a$$ time i spent around here, this cycle analysis works for LONG term only. most of the time it doesnt work for short term. Keep that in mind, my 2cents.

    You can try to trade with SC on the short term for next week, but keep in mind it can be WRONG. But long term wise, this cycle work will work most of the time.

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    Replies
    1. good advice to consider, thank you.

      Delete
  47. Hi SC

    question about your idea to sell out for the next small pop. Knowing your longer term target, why dont you add more next week during the positive cycle instead of selling for small pop with a lost soon.


    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. That is another way to do it, and everyone has to decide what works for them given their circumstances. Because I am overweight on UVXY right now I will look to reposition next week.

      Delete
    2. Hi SC

      since you overweight, you plan to lessen it or just remove all of it and start fresh next week when you mention reposition?


      Thanks!

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    3. All, since I have confidence in the short term cycle.

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    4. 1st we need SPX to drop and UVXY to pop before any of this can be executed. We'll see if the last 2 hours of today will get the ball rolling since the negative cycle is looking pretty weak right now or it's impersonating a positive cycle.

      Delete
  48. check out many UVXY horror stories on yahoo finance, 75% of net worth OUCH:

    http://messages.finance.yahoo.com/ETFs_%28A_to_Z%29/ETFs_P/threadview?m=tm&bn=136370&tid=41798&mid=41798&tof=3&rt=2&frt=2&off=1

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    Replies
    1. While you are at it, why don't you post the success stories from July to Oct 2011 TVIX when traders made 7x their money.

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    2. SC

      GREAT IDEA...........did reader here make 7X their money from 7/11 to 10/2011.......please post your success story!

      Delete
    3. I recalled SC was averaging down on the buy side and was able to get out for about break even last summer. Do not recall he killed it on that bloodbath. We can all go back and check the old posts.

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    4. ohh yes. amazing. and silver went parabolic last year. whats your point???

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    5. My point is the same as yours.

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  49. The market seems to be keeping their gains today...i don't see a catalyst for a drop at eod since the bulls still seem to be in complete control.

    Despite all this, VIX is down 3% but UVXY is staying positive. Not the UVXY spike I was looking for but perhaps it's a turning point....

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  50. 2 PM and market started going up....everyday story...

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  51. I am worried that VIX and UVXY take big dip towards eod...tomorrow monthly roll over and that prompt people to sell their position...

    only hope is if any short covering on july month...that may save us..

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  52. SC, doesn't seem like your negative cycle is playing out very well...

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    Replies
    1. Nothing is new in what you said! LOL

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  53. Different day, same game with UVXY. Bait & switch to crush eod holders.

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  54. Negative short term cycle is still open for several days.

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    Replies
    1. what was negative on today's market cycle? DOW 100 points green and SnP 11 points, NASDAQ 30 points and oil closed green too! don't understand what do you see in negative cycle here...and if this is negative then what would be positive cycle?

      RIP UVXY!

      Delete
  55. There is a another kicker...VIX all time low is 5 or lower...last year we saw or in march we saw VIX reach to 13...so don't think that we are closer to bottom...this POS can go down to even 13 or 10 without much fuss...

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  56. It's a 4 day negative cycle that we are 1 day into now. SPX is up 8 points from yesterday's high. It's not much, and the cycle predicts lower prices duing the next several days.

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  57. I think we got our "pop" today up to a whopping $6.99!!

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  58. In this case it's better that the market runs up higher while the vix is doing nothing. That means there is more room to fall in the coming days. Today looks good!

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  59. Doesn't anyone track daily volume on market? how was the volume on today's rally?

    Thanks

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  60. The S&P backed off its highs and UVXY is up for the day. Bodes well for tomorrow and the release of the employment numbers...

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  61. So this cycle ends on next Monday, right?

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  62. Dow Jones Industrial Average heavy weight ibm jumped up to 192 during AH trading after reported earning.
    with the black trend channel, ibm is making the right shoulders of a potential bearish head and shoulders pattern.
    http://humblestudent777.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  63. Well, UVXY didn't sell of at the closing, it pumped a little with higher than average volume. It is down after hours...but low volume. S&P also up slightly on average volume. I do believe there is a decline brewing for the S&P and and a rally for volatility. They do, however, appear to be a couple weeks away.....but tomorrow sure would be nice.

    SC - I'm also looking to reposition here as well. Will be looking for the 9's. How low to you think the follow on move down will reach before the VIX rally - my guess is in the 5's, then a 1 for 6 reverse split to the low 30's? You thinking of waiting for the reverse split before repositioning or riding it out? Not looking for advice....just wondering what you're seeing.

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    Replies
    1. See if this divergence continues in the morning if spx gives it another go...if so, nice odds with uvxy. As with market tops(and uvxy bottom), it's a process. Market bottoms turn on a dime and are so much easier to spot.

      Delete
  64. We are fortunate that UVXY went up today at all given the rise in SPX.
    I must say, given my 2 month exposure to these cycles, I have many concerns about them. So far it is clear to me that the cycles are poor for short term trading. We'll see if they are better for mid-long term trading if UVXY hits $28 in August.

    SC,
    Thanks for providing additional data points for us to consider in our trading.

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  65. Follow on to the above. Light volume on the VXX today....need greater volume soon!!

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  66. SC, how long will the next positive cycle last, also the negative cycle after? Thx

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  67. Have to be getting close, one would think. At the very minimum, I would like an upward swing to take some profits (as opposed to losses) and reposition later.

    Still have:
    7.50
    7.30
    6.95
    6.72

    Added:
    6.75
    6.75
    6.75

    Add/Sold today:
    6.75/6.65
    6.75/6.65
    6.75/6.65

    Decided to add my remaining (6/10) I spoke about yesterday, but ended up selling 3 of those allotments.

    At this point I'm not really interested in adding much more UVXY, but will instead look to build a bigger TZA position.

    Hopefully we get the 15-20% spike to take off a little profit (or lighten up for those already all-in).

    -Bicky

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  68. Looking for UVXY to pop up into Fri/Mon, then decline next week. I will buy it late next week. Will look at the prices closer to those times.

    SPX cycle is negative now into Monday. Next week is positive and I think the market may slowly grind up higher until late in the week. At that point all my cycles turn negative right into mid - Sept. The larger cycle is the most bearish since 2007 and that is why my emphasis has been on that cycle.

    Major bear market started in April, and the acceleration phase down is starting at the end of the month imo right into mid-Sept.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SC, you know what's gonna happen...you'll sell Monday and VIX will spike wildly Tues.-Fri. Yep, that's the way market's work. Why you'd micromanage now after a firm long and strong stance from 12 down is...what people in losing positions do as fear and uncertainty takes hold. I recommend you just stay put.

      Delete
    2. I know exactly what you are saying, and yes, that is a common trap, but in this case I'm pretty sure what next week will look like.

      Delete
    3. SC, All due respect! We only have 20-30 points upside but we have 100-150 downside to end of Sept or early October.. Don't you think you might miss led some armature traders to loose more money?

      Delete
    4. Or were you trying to reload UVXY when this week's low get's taken out? I know the up trend will continue and is expecting a pull back but unless we take out 1345. We might never reach your goal of max target of $40 by Sept/Oct.

      Delete
    5. Sorry... Not a never but will take longer to reach that max price target I meant.

      Delete
    6. SC, you can't say with a straight face your short term cycles have worked over the last month...otherwise you wouldn't be in this pickle.
      Now, my best fee analyst has turned neutral/bearish at today's close after calling the June 4 bottom to the day well in advance. He now projects a down cycle until Aug. 7. He's the best timer out there, and I wouldn't try to get cute with some short-term maneuvering.

      Delete
    7. I am confident $40 for UVXY can be reached mid Sept.

      Delete
    8. Next week does look positive for SPX though, but it is the last gasp...

      Delete
  69. I'm not an advocate for short term trading in the current time period because I think the risk is overtrading, and I see that a large decline is about to trend lower. Short term trading will not be able to capture this trend.

    However, there are a few select spots that may make sense. I will look at it one step at a time.

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