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Monday, July 23, 2012

$SPX - Negative Short Term Cycle Update

Last week, SPX was rejected at the fork line, and fell in accordance with the negative short term cycle.  Support is just below, and has reached the target outlined in analysis from Wednesday, July 18th.

Therefore, price should start to stabilize as it finds support.  The next short term SPX cycle is positive, and that is the case for the majority of this week and also perhaps into early the following week.  

60min Chart




90 comments:

  1. Huge one day spike for VIX. I do think everything will settle down now for about a week with SPX finding support and working higher again.

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  2. I have been expecting this VIX spike. My pattern does show a deep retrace following the spike. So even if UVXY rises a little more here, it sould settle right back down. My big play is getting close, and this spike was the first sign, but still a little early. I am waiting to take positions.

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  3. SC,At what price you will load up UVXY?

    Thanks.

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    1. I think it'll retest near the low last week.

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  4. SC, do you see anymore downside for the SPX, or do you think we bounce here? thx

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  5. If you would have held for another day SC you could have pocketed another 20% this morning....

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    1. The thing is I'm targeting a major move not a day trade. So while it is always nice to capture those moves, the focus is to position for a major move in Aug and Sept.

      I'm waiting for the right timing which is not too far away. I'll wait patiently for the right entry.

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    2. Hey for me 20% in one day is a major move !

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  6. There is support at this level so a few more SPX points of downside could remain. With that said another big bounce is next in tune with the positive cycle which starts today.

    The next bounce may be strong, but the last one before the Aug and Sept collapse.

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  7. Do you see they take out 1380 on this bounce?

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    1. thanks, disappointed sold on Friday, but if these 2 days are any indication, the play in Aug and Sep could be huge as you said, what would be the reason newswise do you think would be for the coming collapse?

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    2. On a fundamental basis we are facing a "perfect storm" going into 2013. Economics are weak, fiscal cliff, Europe struggling, China downturn, Iran, etc... The list goes on and on.

      Actually, it has become difficult to find a positive on the horizon.

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    3. We're on the cusp of a serious bear market.

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  8. SCJuly 17, 2012 2:02 PM

    "Good question. The negative cycle last week was a different type than this week. 6 straight days down moderately was the result. This type should be more like a sudden drop."

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    1. SC, do you see any negative cycles before the "major" drop?

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    2. The low may or may not be in place yet, but the positive cycle is starting in my work. So SPX should rise into a top on the next move. There will be some small dips as it rises.

      I don't see any short term negative cycles. The next negative cycle in my analysis should be a large, and long negative cycle. A bear market. There has not been anything this negative since 2007. I think we'll rise for another week, then major drop.

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  9. why would you buy TVIX after almost a 20% gain...we will retrace tomorrow for a better entry...in fact we retraced some from this morning high already...tuesday reversal...

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  10. May hold TVIX until it gets to $100 per share.

    LOL, just kidding.


    Would you bet $3870 to get $100000 in an all or nothing bet ?

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  11. InvestBB, true...but that price is at 13ish % gain for the day...I am hoping it will resume falling toward 20% level later on today...then I will decide whether to make it just a day trade or hold it longer.

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  12. I meant resume gaining toward the 20% level.

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  13. SC, when will you start accumulating UVXY? Now that HVU has been reverse split could you please give your target? Thanks

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  14. I'm going to give it some time here - a week perhaps.

    Still the same targets for UVXY, and HVU. I'll go over that again soon. For now, I just want to let things set up first.

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    Replies
    1. So, HVU 1:10 reverse split, 7.45 X 10 = 74.50 Target?

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  15. Yes, that is the first target, and $105 is the final.

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    Replies
    1. It seems your timing was off by a few days for the sudden drop, but despite timing you called today's drop.

      Do you know the reason why your timing was off?

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    2. Yes, I was expecting this move last week. The market had a couple of flat days at the top that burned up the time.

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    3. Opex weeks have a tendency to mess up short term cycles.. It's happened to me numerous times.

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    4. Good point ZZ, thanks.

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  16. Sold TVIX @3.95, tommorow is another day.

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  17. Hi SC

    wondering at what price you looking at for another entry for UVXY?


    Thanks!

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  18. I think it'll test near the low again.

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  19. Hi SC, what do you expect for gold this week ?
    Thanks

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    Replies
    1. Probably a modest rise along with the market.

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  20. crash pattern continue ...
    http://humblestudent777.blogspot.com/

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  21. @Zigzag does this mean the low could be at 9-8 or is this still a top and is this a false bearmove ? Thanks

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  22. Possible 3 Buddhas formation alert...a whole lot of falling ahead if 1338-9 is violated, in my opinion.

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  23. SC, would you recommend buying XIV while the UVXY retraces?

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    Replies
    1. It could work, but I am generally more focused on the bigger picture which is turning bearish.

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  24. MAKE YOUR TRADE ON YOUR OWN DD!! DON'T TRY RELY ON SOMEONE OTHER!

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  25. My box already went short on daily spiders with potential sell signal on weekly (!) coming up.

    DYODD

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  26. timing of this positive cycle is off again?

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    Replies
    1. Timing looks fine so far. Yesterday bounced well off the low, and still higher low today. Back and fill action.

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  27. VIX is almost up 3% from yesterday's close...not bad...one more spike like yesterday and I will close my HVU trade

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  28. SC, do you think this could be the start of the drop you've been aniticipating or is this a head fake?

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    Replies
    1. I believe this is still part of the initial spike, but not the start of the big move that I am anticipating.

      UVXY should still cool off following this spike.

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  29. S&P broke below neckline of 3 buddhas today, so next target is 1297-8 in my opinion...a break below strong support level of 1335 will further confirm.

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  30. It's looking like it will hit around 1310 sometime this month and then consolidate briefly around there before making it's next move...

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  31. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  32. Do you have updated chart SC ?

    I have SP going to your purple line and below, 1300-1315 range

    thanks

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  33. SILVER

    http://img36.imageshack.us/img36/3936/silvert.jpg

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  34. SMA 200 (daily) is currently at 1315 so it may provide temporary support but I don't think it will hold this time...in my opinion S&P is heading back below 1300.

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  35. Not much happening today. SPX carving out a low, with little difference from the low yesterday.

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  36. SC, do you think this could be the major drop you've been anticipating?

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    Replies
    1. No, definitely not. Remember, I suggested this VIX spike last week. This is only the initial spike, and my work suggests that the VIX cools right back down after the spike.

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    2. The spike is a great confirmation of my bigger plan. This spike is the first step.

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    3. SC, Mate your bigger plan was that the S@P would spike lower into the third week of July and UVXY would hit a minimum $28.
      Buddy you're all over the place like a mad womens dream.

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    4. I've been saying for quite a while now that would not occur in July as the whipsaw phase was taking more time. The short term charts and updates have been quite accurate.

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  37. VIX is up over 6%, in my books there is a lot happening today

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    Replies
    1. However, the VIX is only a fraction higher than yesterday's high. VIX spikes mark bottoms in the market on a short term basis.

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  38. DOW


    http://img594.imageshack.us/img594/2421/emini.jpg

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  39. AAPL 555 earning target.

    http://humblestudent777.blogspot.com/2012/07/555.html

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  40. If the cycles can forecast consistently (regardless if it's right or wrong), then we can all make money on our trades. So far I see the following based on a short term review of just 2 months:

    Short term trading (days to a week): It is clear the cycles are not accurate for short term trading. If you do the opposite of what the cycle says, you will do well.

    Intermediate term trading (weeks to a month): Cycles seem to do better here but will wait and see for further evidence.

    Again, as long as the cycles are consistently right or wrong, we can all make money from our trades.

    We all hope that the intermediate term cycle is correct that UVXY will reach $28 before end of August.

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    Replies
    1. The short term charts have been quite accurate capturing most of these moves.

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    2. Respectfully, I disagree.
      However, I do appreciate your efforts on this blog.

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    3. I showed bearish charts last week with the market topping. The timing wasn't exact but was within a few days.

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  41. Hi SC

    wondering your cycle work for next week, is it positive or negative?


    Thanks!

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    Replies
    1. I'll do an update shortly. I'm going through some more data.

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  42. SC, how long do u think before the vix begins to retrace and for how long. Thx

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    Replies
    1. Very soon, and actually the VIX did little today. Only a fraction higher than yesterday. There are certain phases to watch for in my model. This is the "initial spike" phase. Still early.

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  43. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  44. what about this week? seems like UVXY has some more room to run. Hard to see a stock uptrend anytime soon.

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  45. UVXY is testing the range shown in the analysis a week ago. This is the "initial spike". It'll top out and slump again according to my model. SPX is in the process of forming another low.

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  46. RLX held well today, and also the financials. Definitely not the start to a major downturn yet.

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  47. Just curious SC.. Are you still all out on your positions of uvxy? Yeah, I do suppose agree on your forecast of market's short term bottoming.. Although, tomorrow's important level of the SPX 1300-1330 is going to clearfy whether or not if we are on the major down trend.. I did noticed today's AH Someone had bought 750,000 shares of XIV at $11.0999.

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    1. Yes, still the same. Waiting for the setup, and still a little early imo. This initial spike is a good confirmation of the early stages in my big plan.

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    2. What do you think of this chart? Thought I would like to share with you. Remember I'm still a armature.. http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24VIX&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p33267760637&a=246520507&listNum=1

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    3. Yes, the weekly VIX is warming up. Though still not quite ready. It is common to see a number of false starts, then finally...

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  48. SC, is there a possiblity that the end of August could be a high leading to an inversion and a resulting 2-8 August low?

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    1. No, because my cycle analysis shows a lot of weakness especially in the second half of Aug and it is extreme into mid - Sept. Mid - Sept is where an important bottom should be located. This type of cycle does not invert. In early Aug there are mixed positive and negative spots.

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  49. New Home Sales Drop By 8.4 Percent....I see support on SP at 1334, then 1330

    VIX recovered from open

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  50. Do you still see they take out 1380 on this bounce?

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    Replies
    1. Yes, heading over 1380. 1400-10 perhaps. I'll look at the targets in more detail later.

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  51. If you think there will be a deep retrace on UVXY, what do you think of trading some XIV?

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    Replies
    1. It could work short term but I am more interested in the bigger picture.

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