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Tuesday, March 6, 2012

$SPX - Short Term Update

Previous analysis using time cycles outlined March 7th as a potential low +/- 1 day.  The market is into that timing band now.  There could still be potential downside during the next couple of days, but it is likely to be limited.  Several supports rest just below.

The cycle analysis turns positive late this week, and is quite positive next week centered around March 13th.  This may be a lower high with another decline to follow.

60min Chart

26 comments:

  1. http://img15.imageshack.us/img15/3658/gldwkly.gif

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  2. http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/3318/silvern.gif

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  3. Yes, silver is expected to rise from now !

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  4. Hi SC

    You plan to get back into UVXY today? or just going to do nothing till the 13th?


    Thanks!

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  5. I'm going to let things settle this morning/today then decide. I have some mixed signals for today.

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  6. Read a couple of sites now that investors are dumping TVIX in favor of UVXY.
    Not sure if there is any cred to it but UVXY is down twice as much as TVIX this morning.
    Think I will take the opportunity to split. Thoughts?

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    1. It is a tradeoff imo. For short term trading UVXY is moving much better with larger moves. Yet, TVIX has more potential upside (if the premium expands) over longer time periods. Though it is also more speculative.

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  7. What do you think SC, is SPX and SLV going to come back down or do we take off from here?

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    1. Market is bouncing from oversold today, but I think tomorrow or even the morning on March 9th look more probable for a bottom.

      I'm going to wait until later in the day to decide if to make some moves.

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    2. SC, what do you see for silver from now ?

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    3. Silver is firming up today though it is still not confirmed that we have a bottom yet. It is possible that we undercut the low yesterday this week before a real strong move to the upside.

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  8. guys, SLV is going to explode the rest of the week is my opinion...read a lot of site...most agree...may not reach SC target, but we will bounce for sure...heavy support at 50day mm...which we hit yesterday...


    Thanks!

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  9. Hi SC

    less than 1 hour left. curious to know what your move maybe? If any, or just sit back and wait till tomorrow?


    Thanks!

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  10. I'm eyeing UVXY again since this bounce is looking top heavy to me - have not decided yet. The cycle analysis looks weaker tomorrow.

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  11. NDX was firming yesterday in the last half of the day. NDX has struggled for the last few hours today.

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  12. Do you think it's wise at this point to take a big loss on tvix and buy uvxy that's down almost double right now?

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    1. Not sure there is a right or wrong answer. I just bought some UVXY though.

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    2. Thanks. Tough being patient in this trade when I know it's more for day trades. TVIX fell out of support on my screen. With a sterilized QE3 already being talked about, I don't even see this market falling much more. I hope yesterday wasn't the correction.

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  13. Mr. Arora’s algorithms show that humans will be…humans (some forums call them “sheeple”) and that trend-chasing and mis-timing are not only as alive and well as they were back in 1980, but that they do harm to small retail investors whilst enriching the savvy, professional ones. To wit: “in gold’s run from $1,450 to $1,910, [last September] 70% of the buying was by retail investors. Only 7% of the buying was from institutions. In the subsequent run from $1,600 to $1,760, 85% of the buying was by momentum chasing retail investors, but the ‘smart money’ was a net seller. In the latest run up, 92% of the buying between $1,500 and $1,790 is from mom and pop. Institutions are again net sellers.” Are you starting to see a pattern here?

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  14. Hey SC,

    There is a lot of talk about the QE today. What effects will it have on the POS if the Feds goes with it? Does it change your target price?

    Thanks.

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  15. Mainly I like to keep it simple with the cycles and patterns. I'll stick with that $38. We should have confirmation as to a Silver bottom this week.

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  16. UVXY split 1:6 33,24 ( pre - market 31 - 6% ...) more downside ahead ?

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    Replies
    1. It'll probably retrace back up today/tomorrow, then head lower next week.

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