Tuesday, January 3, 2012

$SPX - Update

Things are quiet.  December was a comparatively slow month.  The VIX is low and finding support at the levels prior to the August selloff.  In the short run the low VIX has suggested low volatility.  The VIX is lower now than when SPX was at 1292 in late October.  Ultimately this suggests complacency is building - bearish.

There is a lot of similarity between this period and July 2011.  It's been holding up longer, but still see it resolving on the downside with a major move.  It looks weak into Jan 9th to 11th.

30min Chart 


  1. Looks like it's going to be 11 years in a row. I posted this on Nov 16th..

    "INDU has ended positive from Nov 12th thru Jan 2nd for 10 straight years. I'm pretty sure they'll think something up to make it 11 :-)"

  2. Hi SC

    Are you still holding your cycle though with spx:
    "The indication is for a sizable decline into Jan 6th or 9th. The next target is 1044"?
    with today bullish action?


  3. It looks weak with a decline into Jan 9th to 11th. Target is also the same, but I also recognize that this is going to take time to hit the 1044 target.

  4. As I stated on Thursday............

    Up into Thursday of this week, then correction, then up into 18th.

    Crash? Don't see it.

  5. Hi ckorey

    Are you seeing 1 day correction after thursday then up into 18th? arent sure what the time frame of the correction you mention above.


  6. No, I see it down into the 10th/11th, then some chop and then rip into the 18th.

  7. My SPX charts have all been big picture. I do see a big play on the downside.

    Short term, I have a plan as well.

    Test 1273 SPX next at the pink line. That may hold as support and tomorrow top out at 1289. Chart is coming.