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Monday, January 23, 2012

$SPX - Correction Due

Today was a turn date in the timing cycles, and a correction is due.  The cycle analysis looks weaker for tomorrow/Wednesday and also around January 30-31st. 

The VIX gapped up, and that was a sign that the rally was about to fizzle.  The VIX bottom on Friday looks solid.  

15min Chart

21 comments:

  1. SC...this video goes with your analysis

    http://www.bloomberg.com/video/84758540/

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  2. Thank you, I'm not that bearish, but a large 20% leg down is coming from my work. The worst crisis since 2008 is coming in the next few months imo...

    I have bearish and bullish charts coming this year, and will turn bullish when appropriate.

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  3. So the basic plan is a correction into Jan month-end. Then, another pop into Feb 6-8th fits the time cycles.

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  4. So is the 20% downleg to start now? Be specific.

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  5. Not from right now because I still see corrction followed by a pop into Feb 6-8th and that is likely a slight higher high for SPX. 1326 area. The downleg would start from there.

    I have specifics coming for timing, how long it should take to hit bottom etc...just waiting for this topping process play out.

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  6. hi SC,

    so what could be your target for the present correction?
    thx

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  7. Well were all set up for another up day with the AAPL earnings. But we still have Ben, Obama, and Greece to rain on the parade

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  8. SC

    Where is your stop on shorts!? Tx, syd

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  9. I've been eyeing the 1326 area. A little more than that might be possible, but not much. I'm going to review my short term charts.

    I plan to add shorts on this pop.

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  10. SC

    Are you saying above 1326 is your stop? Just trying to follow and learn some about stops! Tx,syd

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  11. Sc

    How do you decide stop placement in general? tx! syd

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  12. I still think the momentum high was yesterday from my previous chart. Regardless of AAPL earnings tonight, the overall market should sell off for a bit.

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  13. zigzag

    Are you short into your cycle? jon

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    Replies
    1. Jon, I started a small short on Friday and sold some of my longs.

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    2. ZigZag, thanks for your sharing, so your correction just started, may I ask which date this correction will be over?

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    3. Hi Steven, If we can get a close below 1,308 that will likley confirm the January 23rd peak. The next alignment I'm seeing is around Feb 17th for possible low, and then my mid March cycle peak.

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  14. you have to think a nice correction is coming, but this market has been very resilient. Starting to think that it will grind higher and HVU will drift lower, and i use the term "drift" lightly as 2-4% down per day is nothing to sneeze at. I am really hoping for a pullback to 1280 at least, and with a little luck, 1272.

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  15. The fact that the dip got bought once again today, tells me this market wants to go higher this week. (I'm still holding short from Friday)

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    Replies
    1. yes, thats how i feel too, but its not really rallying, though tomorrow may change that. hope not. fed hopefully disappoints

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