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Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Silver/Gold - Updates

Silver likely has run out of room to advance for now.  Resistance was expected at the green line, and then the the pink line.  This pink line should prove to be strong resistance.  A significant dip is expected next for Silver, and further analysis will be coming shortly with target levels.

60min Chart















Gold broke out of the bullish wedge pattern as expected.  There may be minimal upside to meet the time and price target.  The yellow lines were drawn on the Jan 16th Gold analysis: 

http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/01/gold-starting-to-shine.html

2hour Chart

44 comments:

  1. The action in January was in the Gold and Silver markets...

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  2. I plan to build Silver shorts next.

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  3. For SPX, my cycle analysis looks strong today, but weak tomorrow. I don't expect much upside today at all because the red line on the SPX chart comes in around 1330. Because the cycle analysis looks strong today, the mkt probably will be firm, but flat and a larger dip tomorrow is more likely.

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  4. Sold my GLD this morning from the December 29th cycle low. I don't follow gold that much and not sure what it will do next.

    http://tinyurl.com/7hodysq

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  5. GLD hit the 168 target this morning. Nicely done ZZ!

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  6. Went short the market, bought HVU at $10.52

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  7. Now I'm looking for a decline to SPX 1314-16 or so to cover shorts, and go long. Most of today could be flat. Late today or tomorrow morning is when I expect some selling.

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  8. SC have you bought silver short?

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  9. For Silver it was likely a short term top this morning. It should drop a little along with SPX today/tomorrow. Early next week Silver should put in a lower higher, and then we see a sizable decline for Silver.

    I have not shorted it yet, but plan to on a lower high early next week. I'm working on the downside target.

    Gold looks much the same except I think it will manage a slight higher high, then slump a fair bit after that.

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  10. SC, do you think recent 81.78 on the dollar index was a significant top for months to come? if so, this goes against your market drop call and goes along with metals being stronger from here into the spring, then the rally we are seeing in metals is just getting started.

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  11. There should be more upside in the dollar overall, but the dollar is choppy. It can come down some more near term, then up to a higher high. The next target for Silver is $37 so there isn't much upside left in my view.

    The upside for Gold is better to a $2,050 target next few months.

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  12. SC 37 is still more than $3.... and I personally thinks that if Gold will go and make new high then don't see any reason why Silver will hold back...it sound almost impossible to me...just my thoughts.

    Thanks

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  13. Silver is top heavy short term.

    The way I see it unfolding is that Silver pulls back quite a bit before any surge up to $37. That is why Gold can hit a new high but not Silver.

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  14. good trade :)

    Another one in the bag for SC... heck with the haters :P

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  15. In cash, may just wait and see how things go tomorrow.

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  16. Hy , Sc . Good trade, truly. Tomorrow , i think sp500 under 1300.... . Vix at 16,80 low .... today....

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  17. ok, i see 980 / 1000 sp500 in a few months . i haven't a crystal ball.. but the next big move , is down... . THE FINAL TARGET CYCLICAL BEAR MARKET 2011/2012.

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  18. I stayed short with HVU, although HVU today was flat despite the S&P being down 0.56%. I think its just a lag and VIX futures will start turning up. Lots of chatter about Portugal being the next Default and the fact that German and French banks have more exposure to them than they do Greece. If both defaulted, we could have the major market drop SC has been preaching.

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  19. Top picking............. go broke.

    Trading with a bias...........go broke.

    Sticking with the trend, not fighting the tape and trading without a bias................priceless.

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  20. SC,

    May I ask why you removed other reader's posts?

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  21. Bulls/bears are certainly welcome here. Discussion in a respectable manner is also welcome.

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  22. The market is Wild , the mistake it's normal. You can see a right move for 60% ... and you are a good trader.... . This is the market... . No Guru , No phenomenon..... .

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  23. I think that it is necessary to be very humble with the capital markets. When forecasts, crash type, or rallies do themselves, if then they do not happen it is necessary only to say: hey, I have made a mistake ... !
    ( next top 1326 , 1340 , 1349 , 1369 , 1375 , 1398 , 1414, 1449 , 1480 , 1510 ,1550 and yes 1576.... ) This is the top..

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  24. I can understand the frustration and critisism in many cases. To me all that is "right" is making profits - "wrong" is losing money.

    For example, Dec 7th, my analysis was that we had a triple top in place at 1267. That was true and the mkt fell over 60 points into mid-Dec. A person can go back now, and complain that I was wrong in saying that the top was in. Fair enough. However, it was an accurate short entry at that time. I made money.

    I could hedge what I say in many different ways and everything I say would be "right", but the words would not be helpful in making profits.

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    Replies
    1. Yes but where is the crash you have called for numerous times?

      I think the frustration of people here is not admitting blown calls. I have had blown calls as well but my trades are 75% winners. As soon as I read crash I fade it and that always works.

      My work aligns with Zig Zags (Doug Kass as well) and things look bullish but I will trade what I see. Looking for a crash leads to a bias which will get you crushed in the market.

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    2. It is already confirmed in my work - big picture. Of course these things are rare, and it is not unusual to take time to line these up correctly. It is normal.

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  25. So SC you are buying the open in the SPX today right?

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  26. Have not decided, but this may turn out to be a good entry.

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  27. SC, I think Europe is key and by early next week Europe will seal the fate of market and commodities....

    I still don't see any instrument today that can tank market in big way...

    Europe, Europe and Europe......

    Thanks

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  28. I think the SPX will head to its 20 day DMA first...

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  29. SS76, nothing here either. gold up, silver up, euro up, buck down, indexes pull down a bit from overbought conditions. Looks like we go up into early february! No significant corrections on the horizon.

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  30. Replies
    1. Slow today, will take positions Monday.

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  31. Hey, waddya' know............i got a sell signal...........barely but it's there.

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  32. SC,
    The FEDS DECISION Says
    BUY STOCKS !!!
    http://markethighsandlows.wordpress.com/

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  33. SC,

    Are you still bearish for silver now ? The pink line is still strong in your opinion ?

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    Replies
    1. I have a plan for Silver that I expect will work very well. Chart is on the way.

      Gold also. Exciting moves coming for both!

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  34. My mid January weekly cycle peak is still working here..

    http://tinyurl.com/86mzjqh

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