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Thursday, January 19, 2012

$SPX - Eye of the Hurricane

Each of the turquoise fibonacci arcs marked the timing of a significant turn including the timing of the October 2011 low at 1074.  The first turquoise arc comes up tomorrow or Monday Jan 23rd.  Feb 6-7th is then the next timing date to watch. 

The first red fibonacci arc marked the timing of the August 9th low.  As well, price tested near the first red arc at the Oct 27th high at 1292.  Following that high was a 134 point decline into the Nov 28th low at 1158. 

The yellow fork caught many highs and lows last year.  If SPX did pullback, and manage to reach a little higher to test the yellow fork that would be around 1325.   

Daily Chart

29 comments:

  1. Hello SC,

    What do you think about Gold and especially SILVER?
    I look forward to see your Silver analysis.

    Thank you.
    RB

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  2. long.... !!!???

    http://twitter.com/#!/Meteo1970/status/160346725402419200/photo/1

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  3. I'll show Silver charts next. It has been slowly consolidating lately.

    It's a waiting game all around. SPX is pricey and a turn is due in the next few days. So it is a matter of letting things develop. Aside from any minor upside, the next major move will be to the downside. The reasons are the same, and the updates are coming to show why that is still the case.

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    1. I think these dates are likely important.

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  4. Bearish seasonality for the next week. Since 1965, the DJI has risen only 40% of the time in the week after January 19th.

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  5. In cash waiting to buy the dip.

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  6. OK, Thanks. I âm waiting your silver analyze...
    RB

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  7. Is it good entry to short silver? for short term?

    Thanks for your quick response.

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  8. Inflationary hurricane... that is.

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  9. Silver reached the $31.50 level that I mentioned yesterday. On a short term basis it is likely to struggle at this level, and dip.

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  10. Thanks SC, that was my thinking...will wait for entry point in next week or so...likely $ 28 again?

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  11. $29.30 or so looks about right for Silver.

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  12. VIX 18.75 is important. I think there is support there.

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  13. 29.30 on the futures or SLV?

    US dollar index has turned down on jan 16th, continuous fall from here would fuel metal rally IMO.

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  14. Gold is very quite which is surprise, I think silver is running on chart technicals and it will be over today close.

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  15. BUY GAS.....
    https://twitter.com/#!/Meteo1970/status/160460379103821824/photo/1

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  16. I guess we go higher.. seems like all logic/ technicals are out the door these days.

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  17. We're right at the turn date. Monday is likely a down day imo. VIX filled it's gap, and looks like capitulation. I went short after hours.

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    1. HOw did you go short after hours? Also, where do you see the down leg going before the next peak Feb 6 - 7?

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    2. Short S&P 1315, and long TVIX at $20.21. It looks favorable for a bottom on the VIX.

      Updates coming this weekend for SPX, Silver, and VIX.

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  18. SPX cycle chart at probable peak.

    http://tinyurl.com/6pxrtfe

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    1. Thanks ZigZag, Could you tell us where is the bottom? will the time cycle repeat about 6 months like last May until Oct?

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    2. Hi Steven. I should have a good handle on the next low as soon as I know for sure we've hit this cycle peak. From what I can tell, May will be another peak with June as a low, and by October we'll likely be above the May high. Just the opposite of last year.

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  19. ZZ, could you please re-post your long term fractal chart for the main market? which year(s) are you using as a reference?
    thanks.

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    1. Hi AM, the one I've been posting is 1966-67. We probably won't follow it exactly, but it should look similar. There's a bunch of them that I use for cycle alignments and 1966-67 seems to come up quite a bit.

      http://tinyurl.com/83s4rew

      http://tinyurl.com/7lvym4u

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