Monday, January 23, 2012

Silver - Ready to Cool Off

Silver has been red hot, and it has been a great run up from the December bottom.  It is ready to cool off somewhat now with some significant retracements.  For the futures, a dip to $30.30 area seems likely.

Notice that the red and turquoise fork lines are exactly aligned as indicated at the green arrow.  Silver is trading in accordance with complex but exact geometric patterns.   

2hour Chart


  1. VIX gapped up. S&P has pushed higher. It is closing in on 1326 which is my estimate for THE top. It looks like we top out very soon.

    What it means is that we top out here, and then around Feb 6-8 would likely be a lower high intead.

  2. SLV stopped at the area shown and is hitting some resistance there. However, because everything has been stronger today I do wonder if SLV could reach that pink line just over $32. That may be a better estimate of where it reverses.

  3. SC,
    Tom DeMark mentioned tvix today at an interview. He said the market will top today or tomorrow. He thinks VIX and tvix have bottomed he is keeping an eye on tvix. Lets see if tvix reverses higher later on. It haven't closed green for many days now.

  4. Thanks. I am confident in the VIX chart, and agree with Tom that the VIX has bottomed with mkts to top out early this week. The TVIX is based on the VIX futures so it can move out of sync with the VIX as we are seeing today. TVIX looks like it can bounce here, but the bottom not likely quite in place just yet imo.

    I'm short from Friday, and will continue to build up my short positions early this week.

  5. US dollar index seems to be turning down ... metals rally from here futher with little to no correction?

  6. FWIW, my Aug 9th, Oct 3rd and Nov 25th cycle low calls are in alignment with likely peak today.

  7. SC, we got a 50/200 MA bull cross on the SPY. Looks like QE3 is here, they just did not send out the memo this time around.

  8. According to MMA, Silver last week close above 31.50 confirmed the low of a 3 year cycle trough on 29 Dec 11. Silver ended its 18 year cycle low in Oct 2008. 2008 to 2011, a 3 year cycle low to low.

    A new 36 month cycle is now forming from 29 Dec 11 to 2014. The mid point is 2013, the likely right translated high should be in 2014. If so, in 2012, being the 1st phase of the 3 year cycle, it should challenge and surpass the 1980's high of $50.