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Sunday, January 8, 2012

$SPX - Top Target Calculation

The following chart is a more detailed and refined look at next week.  This configuration of geometry puts the high on about the 16th of January at approximately 1311 SPX.

I noticed that the Nov low at 1159 SPX up to the Dec Triple Top at 1267 SPX was 108 SPX points.

From the Dec low at 1202 plus 108 points equals 1310 SPX target.  This lines up well with the target predicted by the geometry, and also the trendlines from 2008.

Notice that the first 108 point leg up was much faster - much stronger market.  This leg up is going much slower - weakening market.

60min Chart




 

 

23 comments:

  1. Ok, lets see if I have your thoughts correctly.

    1) so you anticipate a drop on Monday, but nothing significant (price target? SPX 1265?)

    2) top out Tuesday at near 1311 maximum (red line).

    3) then weak into Jan 12th or so, and a test of near 1255 is the target on that decline

    4) from there steady rise to 1311 to approx Jan 16 + or - a day

    Then I'm sure you'll have your next cycles once these are confirmed. Let me know if I have summarized this correctly.

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  2. Subject to change of course...............Crash?

    I believe i said a week ago ramp into thursday ish then correct, and then another push to the 18thish.

    Hmmmmm.......................as I have been saying for a long time ............trade what you see not what you think and always fade the crash calls.

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  3. The plan is:

    1. Monday dip and test near 1267.

    2. May reach about 1302 Jan 11.

    3. A dip to 1287 or so next into Jan 12.

    4. From there rise to 1310 approx Jan 16.

    Of course we will review as we go. It's good to have a plan though all of these numbers and dates are estimates. Trying to be this precise in advance is challenging.

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  4. "Trying to be this precise in advance is challenging."

    Amen..................and crash calls get faded. Not a slam.......just that I'm sure some here got short when they saw your post. My point is everyone should use their own work to get long or short.

    Are you short or long?

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  5. Don't forget my call was for a top on Dec 27th and decline on Dec 28th. My cycle analysis did work, and SPX dropped 20 points on the 28th. It didn't crash as it was just a minor, and false start. The next setup is coming soon.

    I plan to be long tomorrow.

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  6. YOu mention a parabolic rise for silver and gold... however you also mentioned silver going to 18 dollars? ALso, i dont understand what you mean by equal percentage moves for gold and silver? Do you mean equal percentage moves from their lasat parabolic move, or equal to each other.. If to each other I find that hard to believe since silver always outperforms gold.

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  7. SC, thanks again for all your hard work. I'm sorry you have gotten so much grief recently - I think your calls have been quite good in terms of the big picture. It's always a challenge finding the exact timing of a market turn.

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  8. Silver and Gold are firming up and the next targets are $37 and $2,050. From the bottoms at $26 and $1,525 to the anticipated targets, the % move is roughly equal. Silver does slightly outperform overall, but Gold is a steadier rise especially to start.

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  9. Thanks Spudthorpe,

    The tops are processes that is for sure with some finesse involved as we grind our way up here. The bigger picture is where the serious money is to be made.

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  10. So SC, are you bullish or bearish for gold and silver this week ?

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  11. I am mildly bullish on Gold/Silver for the next couple days. After that, some retracement is due.

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  12. Should see a test of near 1267 area. Things are slow today so might have to wait for that tomorrow.

    NDX is already weak suggesting this should occur next.

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  13. Hi SC

    so you not planning on going long today then with spy may not be dropping till next day?

    as well, wondering your take on silver, mention above going to 37$, wondering are we going straight there from now on? or we hitting back to below 30$ sometime first this week before heading to 37$ in your cycle?

    Thanks!

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  14. Yes, watching for a dip and then will look to go long.

    Silver may still try to test $30 or so then retrace to $27-28.

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  15. I am bearish on silver this week btw.

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  16. Most likely big move up tomorrow maybe to finish this final wave up.Cannot see any reason for 1267 13 handle down tomorrow.Dollar retracingng no negative Euro news pretty good set up for tomorrow.

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  17. Well, Alcoa reports a loss after the bell, quite dismal results actually. Could be a sign of things to come. Could be the catalyst for tomorrow, combined with Euro bond yields (Italy now at 7.15%. There are plenty of reasons why the market could godown tomorrow, but nothing makes sense these days

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  18. sc, do u still think we get 1267 before 1300+ by the 11th? mastery called for a major top tomorrow.

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  19. u get 1292 tomorrow and maybe turn Wed.

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  20. The market could push up tomorrow, but my cycle analysis turns mildly negative starting later in the day tomorrow. The 11th is quite negative and into the morning on the 12th. So the morning on the 12th looks like a candidate for a low.

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  21. if the low on the 12th brings us back to 1280, then as a bear i'm no better off since i shorted yesterday at 1280 thinking 1267 was next.

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  22. SS76, we saw 1267 or 68 Sunday evening/Monday morning I believe. I wish I read SCs post earlier...

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