- Rise up from the white arrow to the red arrow Fiscal Cliff top for UVXY.
- Fast drop for UVXY with large gap down from the red arrow Fiscal Cliff.
- The late February spike up for UVXY.
- Decline for UVXY after the February spike.
- Drop below white wedge line and spend time forming blue arrow bottom.
UVXY is nearing the blue arrow major bottom as shown in the Cycle. The Cycle decline down from the red to the blue arrow is mature. It is important to emphasize that this is a large scale Cycle.
All of the major price movement requirements in the Cycle have been met already.
Daily Chart
Look closely at the white wedge line drawn on the Mount Everest Cycle below. Price fell below the white wedge line prior to the blue arrow bottom. Then price popped and bounced along forming the blue arrow bottom.
Price is currently testing several support lines.
60min Chart
Compare to the Cycle. UVXY is following the large Cycle, and it is getting mature.
ReplyDeleteWhile all the requirements have been met in the large Cycle, UVXY can still grind along and burn time for a while.
ReplyDeleteThe 50dma has been resistance as shown, but has been tested numerous times.
The VIX itself has been trending higher for 6 weeks now since mid-March when Cyprus issues first erupted. That is compelling evidence to support this Cycle following through.
ReplyDeleteVIX was green today along with SPX. Often a warning.
This will be a generational move...thnx for your work
ReplyDeleteYou are welcome.
DeleteI agree. If UVXY follows then spectacular returns.... Only thing concerning is in mt everest cycle blue arow was higher high....uvxy has made lower blue arrow lows... SC doesnt think this is a problem though.
ReplyDeleteSC, at what point will you fel confident to say blue arrow bottom is in for uvxy? Weekly close over $9? Vix weekly over 20?
What it simply means is that the yellow arrow should be a lower high versus the red arrow whereas in the Cycle both are about the same level. In my view the yellow arrow should be around that large gap area from early January.
DeleteLet's give it some time to let this play out. As you say a weekly close should confirm. I am going to be watching the charts closely, and plan to post an update once there is evidence that the blue arrow is in place.
DeleteThe large Cycle is mature, but this can still take time to play out since it is a large Cycle afterall.
DOW 33346
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6yG2QOvbKPk
Can the greed and feds take us on the wildest ride of the century?
SC, if yellow arrow is lower hi than red arrow, does that mean orange arrow is lower low or higher low than blue?
ReplyDeleteWhat vix level does yellow arrow reach? Mid 20's?
I think orange will likely be only slightly higher than blue.
DeleteMid 20's VIX at least, maybe even 30's.
So UVXY to 17-18$ then back down to $8-9.... That sounds about right.
DeleteWe can fine tune the numbers later, basically that is the idea.
DeleteWhat kind of timeframe is your large cycle? Years?
DeleteSo your blue arrow is days away or weeks?
Yes, it is a large scale Cycle. In the Cycle, price trades flat and bumps along grinding out the blue arrow bottom. UVXY is doing just that. This process could still take weeks, but tough to pinpoint exactly based on the large scale Cycle. All requirements have been met already.
DeleteOne more low for VIX under 12 could be possible to reach an extreme in complacency. It has been rising for 6 weeks. Perhaps just simply waiting for a little complacency to set in.
As far as the large cycle goes, your orange arrow might be in line with Jan-Apr 2014?? I'm just trying to get a handle on the timeline of your work.
DeleteThanks
The timeline can be gauged roughly. That's in the ballpark. UVXY tends to rise fast and decline slower than the Cycle.
DeleteThe orange period should be a prolonged flat period, and take time. It should be easily identified. Very quiet, flat.
So the great news is if this plays out you may only have to take a small loss instead of the massive one your sitting on....
ReplyDeleteIf this Cycle continues to play out the upside is in the 1000's of %. The market would see a deep bear market.
ReplyDeleteNo point getting ahead of things though. Right now we are in the topping phase for SPX.
ReplyDeleteIs it possible in your mind to have a correction on the SPX starting shortly till Aug and then rise to new highs by Jan/14 (big decline after that) even though the VIX stays elevated from todays levels?
DeleteYes, that generally makes sense. That is the plan. This Cycle and the other for SPX (Deja Vu Cycle) both suggest that.
DeleteSC, are potentially pushing the time frame for THE crash to 2014?
ReplyDeleteThe Cycles suggest that the market is in the late stages of topping. The Cycles show a large correction initially to start with once the topping process is complete. These Cycles do lead into a crash. Crashes happen from oversold levels once the market has been declining for a while.
ReplyDeleteYup, he's basically pushing it out til 2014. LOL!!! Great place for a laugh and do the opposite.
ReplyDeleteThe move from blue to yellow arrows in the Cycle is a large move in itself. The market crashes in this Cycle from the orange arrow to the green.
ReplyDeleteI would plan to take profits at the yellow and reload at orange anyways.
ReplyDeleteBasically you were bearish in 2011, you lost and pushed out.
ReplyDeleteYou were bearish in 2012 calling for 980. You lost and pushed out.
You are bearish so far all of 2013. Now you expect new highs in 2014.
Didn't follow you in 2010, but I am sure your were bearish at the time also.
Now, wouldn't it be nice to be fully invested the past three years and not worry about the major crash? LOL!!!
The market plunged 300 points in 2011. I was bullish many times in situations in 2011 and 2012 as well. My models were very bullish from Nov 1378 SPX right into January this year.
ReplyDeleteThese 2 charts alone account for most of the movement since December:
http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.ca/2012/12/spx-final-surge-up-next.html
http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.ca/2013/02/spx-significant-dip-next.html
"The market plunged 300 points in 2011."
ReplyDeleteQuestion is, did you participate? I recall you went bullish right when the markets started crashing. If your readers do the opposite of your calls, they would be up huge this year!
You can not fool people SC. Your track record speaks for itself. You would have made more money just staying with the trend and buying the dips.
Be honest with yourself, and you will gain respect from your readers.
Here's one of your calls when I was bullish June 2012!
DeleteUnknownJune 13, 2012 at 1:13 PM
"You guys better listen to my boy T-bone over at Daneric's blog.
P3 is getting ready to start!!!"
Here's a good call I made for April that was good for nearly 50% gain:
ReplyDeleteSCApril 8, 2013 at 12:13 PM
"I think UVXY can dip into the $6's this week and bounce 50% next week."
How about this great call on July 15,2012. Btw, that $40 target is equivalent to $400 target because of the 1:10 reverse split. Boy was this another great call. LOL!!!
Delete"SCJuly 15, 2012 at 6:30 AM
While I am anticipating UVXY to start moving up in July the first green target is likely to hit in August. I am not expecting much retracement on the way up to $28, and that is why it is labelled "first target". From the first target at $28 to the yellow and red maximum targets I am expecting to see choppy movements with large retracements. That choppy phase will be detailed with charts later.
The dips are likely to be small on the way up to the first target. This is why I am not an advocate for short term trading. Short term trading was an effective approach during the last several months of whipsaws. Soon, the market will trend on the downside, and therefore my strategy is shifting to longer holds. It is much more important to understand the bigger picture.
I will be lowering my SPX target closer to 1200 for September. The UVXY September maximum target is approximately $40."
UnknownJune 13, 2012 at 1:13 PM
Delete"You guys better listen to my boy T-bone over at Daneric's blog.
P3 is getting ready to start!!!"
As I said the other day....just trade what you see, forget holding the decaying beast when it decays 10% per month.
ReplyDeleteIf you wait till 2014, it will decay 120% minimum & of course if we do see higher levels in the S&P to 1700++ it will probably decline a lot more than 120%.
SC is long at 14.50, UVXY is 6.27....yes it might go up a zillion% by next year, but the reverse could also be true & the mkt could just continue up.
With the clowns we have in power, anything is possible...being down 60-70% on your investment is not clever no matter which way you look at it!!
I bought UVXY at 6.31 the other day, sold at 6.60...up $3,000 again for the 3rd time this month.
"yes it might go up a zillion% by next year, but the reverse could also be true & the mkt could just continue up."
DeleteNo, the reverse it not true. That is the whole point of these Cycles.
Just to keep the bears happy while they continue to lose money....I have no bias in a mkt that is a ponzi scheme.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.shtfplan.com/headline-news/the-crisis-is-imminent-when-the-real-crash-comes-it-will-be-worse-than-the-great-depression_04302013
The large Cycle is clear. The crowded trade is the "daytrade". The market Cycle is approaching a turning point that will shock both the bulls and the bears with a huge move.
ReplyDeleteWith due respect, your cycles have been wrong before....
ReplyDeleteI also follow Charles Nenner who I would say is a renowned researcher in cycles & he too is sometimes wrong. The difference is he does use stops.
All I'm saying is I'm long of UVXY again at 6.34, it may seem a good price but NOBODY really knows which is why I have a tight stop.
Hoping the mkt may go down never works....just look at Prechter!! The mkt stays solvent longer than any of us can..
Large Cycles are never wrong. The analogy is that summer is followed by fall, winter, spring, then summer again. Sure, summer could be warmer one year than another, but winter is sure to come. The same is true for the market. We're in the fall season and winter is approaching.
DeleteThose looking for hyperinflation now are dead wrong!
The large Cycle turn is approaching soon. That is a fact.
All there is left to debate is the exact price and time of the turn. It's coming soon.
DeleteThe fact still remains that when the mkt turns, one could consider buying UVXY for a hold....
ReplyDeleteYes they might go up 20-30% in one day but that is still cheaper than buying 50% at 14.50 & hoping!
There are many different trading strategies and the end results are all the matters. My approach is big picture. I put a core position in place, but I'm still waiting to take positions. I take some positions early, some late.
DeleteDon't get me wrong, I understand what you are saying, good points. We do need to let this play out, but the daytraders are going to get caught soon trying to be too cute, when the large Cycle turns.
DeleteYes agree, I have switched to playing it short from now on & buying UVXY on dips...
DeleteHOWEVER, I will change back to long if we break 1611 & will not trade UVXY until they hit 5.
Quite amazing how many funds (incl. Forex) lost a lot of money in April, all because they had a bias view with no discipline.
From 2,000 to 2,007 housing bubbled and commodities such as oil bubbled, but SPX gained nothing. From 2,007 to present SPX has gained nothing. This is with all of the bailouts, and multiple rounds of QE etc... SPX has gained nothing.
ReplyDeleteThese are the facts, and isn't pretty.
"There are many different trading strategies and the end results are all the matters. My approach is big picture. I put a core position in place, but I'm still waiting to take positions. I take some positions early, some late."
ReplyDeleteBoy, you are a genius! So is the $400 UVXY target price is still part of your big picture? LOL!!! Funny, right after that prediction, it dived from $95 to where it is now, at 6.5!
Your calls are indeed masterful! LOL!!!
UnknownJune 13, 2012 at 1:13 PM
Delete"You guys better listen to my boy T-bone over at Daneric's blog.
P3 is getting ready to start!!!"
"SPX has gained nothing. These are the facts, and isn't pretty"
ReplyDeleteThat's why you had a $400 uvxy target price last July? That's the fact, and isn't pretty. LOL!!!
UnknownJune 13, 2012 at 1:13 PM
Delete"You guys better listen to my boy T-bone over at Daneric's blog.
P3 is getting ready to start!!!"
UVXY did bounce 50% in July and made the bears profits.
DeleteSo if this guy is right about P3, we might see 2500-3000 on the S&P? Where will your UVXY be by then? Not sure if that is doable, but I wouldn't be surprise.
ReplyDeleteLooks like his P3 call have been dead on cause the run from last spring have been absolutely been amazing.
Much better then being short, right SC? LOL!!!
There is a crash start date for SPX that I am considering for May. Will only be able to confirm the date after seeing the next 3 or 4 trading days.
ReplyDelete"The decline should take approximately 5 weeks. That puts the timing mid - May."
ReplyDeleteSo whatever happen to decline the past three weeks? You think UVXY can hit $400 on this decline? LOL!!!
The initial decline should take approximately 5 weeks from when it tops. There was a significant decline in April, and the bears made profits, but SPX was not topped. I have been waiting for that moment to take positions.
ReplyDeletesc,
ReplyDeletewhat is your first target for uvxy after 5 weeks of decline?
At this point still waiting for UVXY to finish the blue arrow bottoming process.
DeleteThen the Cycle predicts a rise from the blue arrow to the yellow arrow which in my view for UVXY should be high teens or low $20's around the large January gap area.
SC,
DeleteSorry, just want to understand it correctly.
Are you saying UVXY will start to surge to high teens or low 20's after 5 weeks of decline in SPX, starting in mid May? how about from now till mid May? is UVXY to hit 5's before the surge?
VIX and UVXY bounced off the supports in the charts I have shown. SPX is dipping.
DeleteHowever, doubt that the bottom is in yet for UVXY. Likely this is just a bounce. It probably will trade under $6 though may still bounce more next.
So at this point waiting for the bottoming process to finish for UVXY and topping process to finish for SPX.
We are waiting to complete the blue arrow bottom.
SC was looking for a downtrend to start about three weeks ago and bottom out in mid May. Looks like we are making another all time highs before mid May.
DeleteSC your track record is just horrible! Just BUY the dips til it stops working.
SCMay 1, 2013 at 8:41 AM
Delete"The initial decline should take approximately 5 weeks from when it tops. There was a significant decline in April, and the bears made profits, but SPX was not topped. I have been waiting for that moment to take positions."
Here's a good call I made for April that was good for nearly 50% gain:
DeleteSCApril 8, 2013 at 12:13 PM
"I think UVXY can dip into the $6's this week and bounce 50% next week."
SC,
ReplyDeleteI'm sure you will like this one...
http://armstrongeconomics.com/2013/05/02/vix-volatility-ahead/
UVXY did form a nearly perfect rounded bottom.
ReplyDeleteSCApril 23, 2013 at 9:37 AM
"UVXY should form that rounded bottom over the next day or two, not much lower, then spike up. However, after spiking I think it will cool off again afterwards. So the optimal spot is looking to be early May for UVXY."
It looks like it may be part of a cup and handle pattern for UVXY. The cup formed over the last week. That was the rounded bottom. Now form handle.
ReplyDeleteCertainly have to be quick in the old UVXY...sold my stock I bought at 6.34 for a 15c profit.
ReplyDeleteMkt breaking out again!
"It looks like it may be part of a cup and handle pattern for UVXY. The cup formed over the last week. That was the rounded bottom. Now form handle."
ReplyDeleteDude, you are just killing me! That's why I stop by at least once a day. Best blog for a good laugh! LOL!!!
Hey Unknown or whatever,
DeleteWe know...you think the long running 'pending doom' forecast is BS. Do you have any other insights? Will you come here and give props if this plays out? Appreciate the skepticism but wth dude?
No one is able to catch every single up and down correctly. if a person can roughly "predict" a trend, esp the turning point, it is already an excellent job. SC said SPX would be negative from end of last week going into Tue this week. it didn't happen. But when he mentioned that UVXY would have another low, I quit after it made a jump. Yesterday it did drop back to the low. And that we shall wait for UVXY to hit the blue arrow sometime in May and then it will fly to the high teens. Well, let's see if it would play out this way. Anyway, we all need to do our DD and compare what he says with how other experts say. it's just not fair to bombard him again and again for the misses, but ignore his correct prediction in the past.
ReplyDeleteRoadmap #1 as indicated some time ago, is the one to follow, confirmed by todays up move. April 4th I suggested that May 1 - 3 was a critical date to confirm which roadmap was in play. Hopefully you weren't caught offside with UVXY.
ReplyDeletehttp://timethetrade.blogspot.ca/
New post coming this weekend with what happens next. Although I have May 14 - 16 as the high, I would start scaling in shorts around here with 1/3rd position, perhaps 1/2.
There is enough data now to estimate a date for the blue arrow, working on that now, and as the Cycle shows this date is also the crash date. As well, I'll post once the charts show the blue arrow has been reached.
ReplyDeleteThe VIX has been trending up for 6 weeks and that is a serious warning, and already confirmation of the Mount Everest Cycle.
However, VIX has not hit an extreme in complacency since mid-March. To hit an extreme VIX should trade in the 11-12 range.
"if a person can roughly "predict" a trend, esp the turning point, it is already an excellent job."
ReplyDeleteDude, the trend has been up since 2009. Buying the dip was the way to go. SC been looking for a top for three years. Where are we today? New highs?
I bought the dip in November when it was safe to do so, when my models were predicting the sharp rally phase was about to begin.
ReplyDeleteGood job for buying the dip back in November, but what about buying the dip two days ago? Or three weeks ago? Or two months ago? Or end of Decemember? Instead you are looking for a CRASH!
ReplyDelete15000 DOW! 1600+ SP!!! ALL TIME HIGHS!!!
Now this is a great quote from a Perma Bear,
ReplyDelete"Unquestionably, anyone still holding short positions above the recent key high of sp'1597 is not only stupid, reckless, but just plain deluded. Almost as deluded as the bull maniacs who think the underlying economy is still on the 'road to recovery."
I would never be long way up here with the models predicting crash next. I'm just waiting for extreme complacency to set in to max shorts for the crash.
ReplyDeleteEveryone is a dip buyer and that is precisely the problem. The rush for the exits is going to be fast as everyone tries to run for the exit at the same time.
ReplyDeleteBut would you agree, dip buying was the correct strategy the past four years? It's much better than trying to nail the exact top, which as you can see, can be very painful.
ReplyDeleteI remember the top of 2000 very well. That's when Julian Robertson threw in the towel and cried mercy. I am waiting for that time again, soon.
Rather than bulls or bears - traders did the best. Dip buying is getting really old. The best dip opportunity for bulls was in 2009. There was a lot of chop from 2010 through 2012. Good opportunities for the bears too.
DeleteI remember in 2009 when people were proud to be a permabear, much like those who are now proud to be a permabull....
Aren't you a trader? How well have you done for yourself this year? A trader that does not believe in stops? LOL!!!
DeleteI am a trader that is positioning for one of the largest crashes in history.
DeleteI am a dip buyer, and I am playing the biggest rally in history. Sure, it will end and I will flip to the other side. But so far trying to correctly call every top have been excruciating.
DeleteJust compare the returns of xiv and uvxy, and you understand.
I liked XIV in June 2012.
DeleteBut you love uvxy at 40 with a target of 400 a month later on July 15.
DeleteThe bears made nice profits in July 2012 when UVXY bounced 50%.
DeleteYou are so funny. You posted the target price after the 50% jump on July 15. Don't worry SC, we have seen your record, so you have nothing to prove. LOL!!!
DeleteBtw, we are on record that you have been BEARISH since January, right? That's why you are still short, right? LOL!!!
My models caught the first half of this rally from 1343 and had target at 1490 SPX for January. The model predicts this is a topping process, and more importantly a major top and deep drop.
DeleteTherefore, I am only interested in building shorts. I've been waiting for VIX in the 11 to 12 range.
Great call in November. What about the call in July when you held UVXY from 17 down to 3 presplit?
DeleteBe honest with yourself so you can move on and acheive greater prosperity. Just don't forget to put stops.
I've said before here....mkt looks like its going to 1670.
ReplyDelete1640 SPX is an important level.
DeleteHi SC why do you say 1640 is important, can you please explain.
ReplyDeleteThere is a measured move. 1536 to 1593 is 57 points. Then 1578 plus 57 points is 1635.
DeleteThat puts resistance in the 1640's.
I'll show the chart this weekend.
If we hit 1640-70 that would put UVXY in the $5 range which would be likely setting up for a reverse split again
ReplyDeleteShort SPX @1472 and long UVXY at 14.50 those are only numbers that really matter... four months of watching and hoping
ReplyDeleteI'm still waiting to build up shorts positions. These large Cycles are lining up nicely.
ReplyDeleteWhat do you mean, aren't you already short?
DeleteSCJanuary 13, 2013 at 10:08 AM
January 10, 2013
Bought 50% UVXY at $14.41.
January 11, 2013
Shorted SPX at 1472.
Bought another 50% UVXY at $14.52.
Any lower targets for VIX here ? Are you expecting to break to new lows?
DeleteYes, core short positions are in place on the SPX bounce from 666 low March 2009. Also, UVXY on the dip from $2,448.
DeleteLooking to get aggressive with short positions soon. I've been waiting for the blue arrow bottom, VIX in the 11 to 12 range etc... to get aggressive for the crash.
I think VIX should see the 11 to 12 range again soon but probably not a lower low from mid-March 11.
DeleteOh no, but SC made a brilliant call in November, remember? He forgot to discuss about his position in UVXY in July to September from 17 to 3 before the reverse split. Another brilliant call.
ReplyDeleteYou gotta love the dude. He's always right. Just look at the only trades he posted in the trades section. LOL!!!
The profits on these trades will be staggering.
DeleteWill it be as staggering as the the UVXY drop from 17 to 3 of last year?
DeleteNikkei is up 65% from November. It has momentum, but no index should ever move that much so fast. Very dangerous, unstable....
ReplyDeleteIn my humble opinion, if UVXY traders catch the fear bug...it rises to the 10.06 gap..and that's about all you'll squeeze out of it for summer. To get that 10.06, S&P 1536 would break and then some zig zagging down to lower 1500s. I don't foresee any crash, but I wouldn't be shocked to see 1490 touched in 2013. So that's like a 6.5% down cycle at most for S&P.
ReplyDeleteI mean let's face it, there's not much downside this summer. The money velocity Fed chart is showing all time lows. This could mean that banks and loaners have built a dam and the incoming QE cash is not flowing into mortgage lending at a substantial clip? This halts any real inflation (until the dam is opened). So, that money goes to equities in 2013. In addition, low interest money borrowed by any given corporation would go to stock buybacks? Or cutting debt according to folks like Richard Koo (who believe this time is being used to pay off debt and NOT expand/employ). The skeptics like Koo say "pay off debt, streamline, don't employ, beat earnings forecasts". The problem being..less people employed in order to make more profit. I hate that expression "the new normal" but it's now growing on me.
SPX charts coming this weekend.
ReplyDeleteYou are doing great work SC and you are in VERY profound company..Armstrong has some neat volatility models that are coming into play now in May, again October and December. A VERY famous cycle analsyt and very expensive who advised major institutions has made a buy recommendation on the UVXY last week and suggested a hold into cycle top for May 9.
ReplyDeleteNYGAL
I might add that I have T work on 60 min Ts that top expire May 8-10; and that my lunar cycle work pulls to a May 9th new moon high which then is followed by a Delta rotation to a midterm low by May 15 which can be potentially most volatile..that could extend to May 22 however we are heading up into early June to retest highs or make new highs by June 6 so I plan to take some profits and reposition the UVXY. We should have maximum volatility on this summer cycle into JULY 22 - August 6..for many reasons..larger cycles and smaller cycles all coming in to dominant downward influence that should be a lollapollooza of a down move..which will probably be bought by the Fed for a huge upswing for the bull market to continued..and then another retest in October so we are heading into a profoundly high volatility laddened market with many opportunities to come.
ReplyDeleteThanks and hang in there..the guys who are giving you a lot of muck dont know what they are talking about..you are hanging with some of the best heaviweight analysts out there..I dont think we go into immedate bear market though that comes later..we will go up into April 2014 ..but this next 3 months will be a money maker for UVXY...the big ride comes into 2015 -16 it will be the move of a life time on the UVXY...so everyone stay tuned..the guy has it right.
NYGAL
Thanks for sharing your work and dates. Certainly interesting dynamics coming up in the markets during the weeks and months ahead. Next week is one of the most important in terms of timing, and will be useful in providing data to determine the timing of events going forward.
DeleteThis market seems to stretch everything right to the maximum extreme possible, and yet it is still following Cycles very nicely. Will take it one step at a time.
NYGAL, very interesting comments. Seem to align with my main alternate roadmap which has a May 6 - 8 high, followed by a May 21 low, then up into early June, and retest early/mid July peak, before being down into the end of July. This will call for major new highs going into 2013.
DeleteMy primary roadmap has a May 14 - 16 high, and then 18% drop into the end of July, before heading higher into November.
www.timethetrade.blogspot.ca
nygaltwh, did you read that from armstrong's blog or was it to clients? thanks
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
DeleteNew analysis is posted.
ReplyDeleteArmstrong is often wrong....I wouldn't be counting your profits just yet.
ReplyDeleteThe famous cycles analyst who went long on UVXY at 6.3 was Charles Nenner. He has also been wrong many times before...
I tend to agree with a couple of the other comments above, don't expect the mkt to crash...100 points down would be max.
Its all about timing but UVXY will probably be a good buy soon for a short term punt. I would be a seller at 8-9 though.