It will be helpful to see further development in the coming days.
60min Chart
Thursday, April 4, 2013
UVXY - Short Term Geometry
The geometry was favorable for a bounce at the yellow and blue forks. The geometry provides short term levels to watch. Also, keep in mind the 50 day moving average is in the mid $9's and gradually drifting lower.
It will be helpful to see further development in the coming days.
60min Chart
It will be helpful to see further development in the coming days.
60min Chart
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The pink fork did a great job of defining support/resistance.
ReplyDeleteIt is not surprising that UVXY bounced yesterday given the blue and yellow forks. However, I can pull the yellow fork down lower so a lower low may still be possible.
ReplyDeleteLet's see how this plays out next.
Hey, where's that UVXY fractal chart you mentioned? i want to see if $100 is possible.. Thks!
ReplyDeleteYes, that chart is coming. It's a wild one!
DeleteInteresting to watch the U.S. and Canadian markets over the last two days. The TSX got clobbered yesterday and it has continued today, -0.6 heading into the close. While the SPX is +0.4 heading into the close. Amazing and will probably end badly. Ugh! Best of the Stock Market: https://sites.google.com/site/bestofthestockmarket/
ReplyDeleteIs this finally the beginning of the move to 1420 or another false start?
ReplyDeleteA serious drop. This SPX 1540 level is critical on the Cycle chart. Break below 1534 would be more convincing.
ReplyDeleteNot very convincing so far...is a move to $17 still in the cards for uvxy? That would be 150% off the lows...seems ambitious but then again there *is* that fractal chart you mentioned...
ReplyDeleteFor UVXY it often starts sluggish early on then the fastest moves come in the later stages of a downtrend for SPX.
DeleteI remember TVIX trading this way in July of 2011. It was very slow getting started.
DeleteWe tested the levels that I posted on Monday. It is a good start but not enough for confirmation just yet.
ReplyDeleteSCApril 1, 2013 at 7:44 AM
"Just looking at the Cycle a break below 1540 should confirm a move down for SPX. Break above 15.50 for VIX."
Hello SC
ReplyDeleteDo you expect now UVXY to drop lower, before the next bounce?
Thanks!
I think UVXY may be a little higher early next week but then dip again prior to the next larger bounce. Once the downtrend is confirmed for SPX, the bounces should become larger and larger for UVXY, but it will be choppy according to the Cycle.
DeleteIt's a little early here, but next week will have better data to work with.
Last year, you were all about TVIX in April?
ReplyDeleteDid TVIX break because of contango at the time of S&P spring/summer drop? Or did it just break like AAPL..and get stuck based on trader sentiment/shorts killing it?
UVXY holds a little more May than April futures. Today closed at 15.50 and 14.30 May/April futures? Theoretically, how would UVXY break as an instrument like TVIX last year? Anyone..?
TVIX had a problem with the manager last Feb 2012. The manager stopped issuing units. This was announced in a press release at the time issuance stopped. Then a premium ballooned as a result. The balloon popped in March 2012 due to the large premium.
DeleteUVXY has never had any problem with issuance like that. It has always been managed properly.
A lot of traders switched from TVIX to UVXY in Feb when that problem with issuance came up.
DeleteUvxy couldnt even close above 8. Looked promising .....and then comes the end of day ramp into the close...
ReplyDeleteShouldve known today wouldnt be any different than the last 999 times...
Thankfully i still held onto my XIV (rule with XIV: if it gaps lower never sell ..just hold it will always get ramped into the close!)
VIX tested the 200dma on Friday, and found some resistance at that level. It may test just over that level then cool off again.
ReplyDeleteI have the big picture Cycle coming for UVXY...working on that now.
ReplyDeleteGreat! That would be interesting to see
ReplyDeleteThis is setting up beautifully! UVXY will see the lower low I suggested. Which will be a great setup!!
ReplyDeleteThe market has been really quite boring lately, but the action is slowly picking up. It's going to continue to intensify from this point for months!
ReplyDeleteThe market is headed higher, much higher SC. Exciting it will be though. UVXY time will come, but be patient. Not until Mid May (see my roadmap on my blog), if the roadmap plays out of course!
ReplyDeletealso, UVXY is printing a Sell today on the candlesticks....
ReplyDeleteI do think UVXY trades a a bit lower near term but then a larger bounce about 50% coming soon.
ReplyDeletewhen do you see that, and from what price?
DeleteI think UVXY can dip into the $6's this week and bounce 50% next week.
DeleteThere is no fear in the markets at all. Even with the markets down this morning, the VIX was down as well. You would think with N Korea and the Europe situation it would be creating some worry in the markets. Thankfully I cashed out of my UVXY position, not at the highs but still a nice profit.
ReplyDeleteWe're starting to interact near the 50dma for SPX which is also why we're seeing better movement - more action.
ReplyDeleteNew post is up!
ReplyDelete