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Monday, April 8, 2013

UVXY - Mount Everest Cycle

The Mount Everest Cycle is a large scale Cycle applicable to large scale movements only in UVXY. 

The Cycle predicted major moves including:

- Rise up from the white arrow to the red arrow Fiscal Cliff top for UVXY.
- Fast drop for UVXY with large gap down from the red arrow Fiscal Cliff.
- The late February spike up for UVXY.
- Decline for UVXY after the February spike.

UVXY is nearing the blue arrow major bottom as shown in the Cycle.  The Cycle decline down from the red to the blue arrow is getting mature, yet short term downside for UVXY remains probable.  It is important to emphasize that this is a large scale Cycle.

Of note, there is an interesting relationship comparing the timing of both the Cycle and UVXY.  Notice that the rise from the white arrow to the red arrow was relatively faster for UVXY compared to the Cycle.  Furthermore, the decline for UVXY from the red arrow to the blue arrow has been relatively slower. 

The Mount Everest Cycle movements are very much in agreement with the Deja Vu Cycle for SPX going forward.  Both large scale Cycles predict the same result.

2hour Chart















The Mount Everest Cycle is shown below:

UVXY is slowly approaching the blue arrow in this large scale Cycle.
 
 

108 comments:

  1. I plan to continue to post short term charts along with updating the position in this large scale Cycle going forward.

    ReplyDelete
  2. UVXY is heading into the blue arrow bottom in this Cycle therefore some short term downside is probable. When the blue arrow low is thought to be in place, the analysis and reasoning will be posted.

    Once the blue arrow low is in place then the next major target is the yellow arrow on the Cycle. For UVXY the gap down area from the red arrow is the target level.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SC,
      Just want to clarify. Are you saying UVXY is still on the way to the next low until 6's in April? and then in late April it will start to bounce back to a higher point, say 10's (which is the yellow arrow)? and then it will drop again, and the last surge will be huge?

      Delete
    2. First we are waiting for the blue arrow low to be reached. Need to give that process some time to see it unfold, and will use short term charts to better define that time and price.

      Once the blue arrow low is confirmed then the next target area would be the yellow arrow. That target level should be around the $19 gap in early Jan.

      Delete
    3. A waiting game right now, and this Cycle will take time to play out fully.

      Delete
  3. Well, I sure don't meddle in them myself, but I'm rooting for you battered TVIX/UVXY holders this week..and into May.
    -

    Considering the sp' is only 10pts from the high, I find it difficult to envision the VIX more than another few percent lower.

    I suppose a double top @ sp'1573 is possible, but..weekly charts say NO!

    Regardless, I will hope for VIX 16/17 at least in the next few days.

    ReplyDelete
  4. What's the most realistic best case scenario for a recovery high of UVXY this month. 9.80?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. In the proximity of the 50dma around $9.50 for UVXY is a target.

      Delete
  5. Permabear DoomsterJanuary 26, 2013 at 5:39 PM
    hmm

    My counter argument would be...

    'Having watched the transports (by definition, the markets 'old leader) spend 12 months in a sideways range..and now breaking out...

    Yet, you are claiming the Tranports its 12 months sideways, and we're to expect 1 month up..and maybe thats it?

    no way. The breakout is likely month'1 of what could be a 2-3 year surge to unthought of highs - fuelled by the Bernanke paper bubble.

    I just can't see how after the breakout has JUST started, that its now somehow going to end.

    That simply makes no sense.
    -

    Underlying fundamentals be damned, since when did they matter anyway in this new era of paper printing.
    -

    I would also note that a 100pt fall does not really count as 'scary drop'. Hell, even the November drop was bigger, and that felt like slow motion decline in many respects.

    With respect, go look at the Transports weekly/monthly charts..for 'some time'..and really ask yourself, how can the breakout which JUST started..be about to end?

    Reply

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  6. There still might be a small amount of upside for SPX, but the bigger picture is that it is testing resistance at 1575 that has held for 13 years.

    SPX has gained nothing in 13 years!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. But..Cramer tells me it is a bull market!
      --

      ;)
      ------
      It remains ironic that those bull maniacs never like to look at a 13yr chart.

      Oh sure they can tout the move from the 80s-90s..THAT was a great genuine bull market...

      Yet..indeed..the post 2009 cycle is NOT a bull market.

      Delete
    2. Permabear, enjoying your blog!

      Delete
  7. This mkt has 1600+ written all over it...not a time to be shorting IMO.

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    Replies
    1. Would be nice to see VIX in the 11's.

      Delete
  8. This is a process all right.

    A classic battle of the bulls and bears. The bulls have the trend from 2009, but the bears have the much longer trend of resistance.

    Though the bulls will give it a try, the large Cycles clearly show the bears winning this battle.

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  9. "SPX has gained nothing in 13 years!"

    It double in 4 years. Yet you have been telling people to short since fall of 2011 at 1080s!!!

    How can you be so WRONG!!!

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  10. The past two weeks you have been screening the posts. So why stop now? Hmmm....

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  11. Dude, just admit you have been BADLY wrong, and i will not post here.

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  12. I love these situations. This is when the big money is made.

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  13. If i understand correctly, the uvxy supposed to move back to red arrow (which corresponds to gap from January $17-20...)

    SC what is the green arrow correspond to? $200 ($20 pre-split?)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You have the right idea.

      Well, of course, first UVXY has to hit the blue bottom. Then, that gap area is where the yellow arrow target would be located.

      Let me get back to you, and I will measure that move again to the green arrow.

      Delete
    2. Well if vix needs to hit 11 again to hit bottom the uvxy will be in the 5's...

      Delete
  14. SC...how is your position in UVXY doing for you?

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  15. Excellent, wait and see.

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  16. The high for UVXY is $2448.00, and no, it will never reach that level again.

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  17. I'll be looking to buy some soon too, but my strategy is all about the big picture. That is where the real money is to be made.

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  18. Not sure how much longer i can wait...these uvxy levels make me nervous especially how they like to RS every 6 months!

    You got a timeframe in mind for the next move up? (Min 5-10$ move)?

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  19. I'll be happy with $20 on uvxy...is that possible this year from present levels?

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    Replies
    1. This move down to the blue arrow is nearing maturity in the large Cycle. Therefore, the first yellow target is realistic during the first half of the year.

      Delete
  20. Given I see the high of the SPX happening May 14 - 16, around or over 1600, I would suspect UVXY will have split again. That is the only way this see's $20 before then. The drop I have pencilled in after this though, will be great for UVXY, and I may join in for the ride. Here is my roadmap#1:

    http://timethetrade.blogspot.ca/p/s-roadmap-till-mid-june.html

    ReplyDelete
  21. Not too sure why everyone is getting excited about UVXY yet....mkt is going up, UVXY is going down + add on decay.

    Next stop is 6.3 in my opinion.

    Let's stay on planet Earth...a move to $10 would be huge!!!

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  22. One step at a time. The short term charts will be used to better define the movements on the large scale Cycle.

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  23. There are negative short term cycles coming for SPX later this month.

    Once everyone says that the market is surely breaking out, it will be ready to dip. Give it some time and let it play out.

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  24. "Give it some time and let it play out."

    So why didn't you give it some time when you loaded up at 14.5 in January?

    ReplyDelete
  25. I'm going to be taking additional positions, and am much more intersted in the big picture. The strategy is simple I hold some at all times since the upside in this Cycle is in the 1000's of %.

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  26. That weekly RSI above 70 on the S&P is creeping me out. Something isn't right.

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  27. "The strategy is simple I hold some at all times since the upside in this Cycle is in the 1000's of %."

    So you have the record to back it up? What you do have here is records of BAD calls. Would you have a surgeon operate on your heart when his success rate is 20%? LOL!!!

    ReplyDelete
  28. These Cycles have worked well so far. Look at the moves that the UVXY Cycle has already predicted above. Look at the phases that the Deja Vu Cycle has already predicted.

    The Deja Vu Cycle predicted the sharp rally phase in SPX. I was bullish at the bottom in Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan.


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  29. These Cycle were very bullish during the Fiscal Cliff!

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  30. The white arrow to red arrow move in Dec corresponded to $17 to 28 move in UVXY...

    The blue arrow looks like a HIGHER HIGH than the white arow on Deja vu cycle, yet in uvxy its making daily LOWER LOWS... So are you certain that this deja vu cycle can correspond to uvxy?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The Deja Vu Cycle is a completely different Cycle for SPX.

      This Cycle is for UVXY.

      Delete
    2. Yes, in this UVXY Cycle, the blue arrow is lower than the white arrow which is why we also expect a lower high for the yellow arrow than the red arrow.

      Delete
    3. These large Cycles are useful for showing the major phases of the movement. The short term charts are more helpful in further defining each movement.

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    4. What is really interesting is that the large scale Deja Vu Cycle for SPX, and this large scale UVXY Cycle are very much showing major moves in tune with each other going forward.

      I'll be posting analysis on this comparison.

      Delete
  31. SCApril 9, 2013 at 12:47 PM
    Yes, in this UVXY Cycle, the blue arrow is lower than the white arrow which is why we also expect a lower high for the yellow arrow than the red arrow.

    --------------

    What does this mean? Move to 12-14 instead of 17-20 gap fill?

    I'd sure like to know when the blue bottom is in to load up more. Xiv is paying off but no way will i add to that position


    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The gap is the correct yellow target imo for UVXY. In the Cycle the yellow arrow is actually higher than the red.

      Since UVXY is making the lower low for blue then yellow should also be a lower high around the gap area.

      Delete
    2. Ok. Thanks! Does vix still need a double bottom at 11 before you'd consider the blue bottom in?

      Delete
    3. It would be preferable to see a higher low for VIX in the 11's since that would be a sign of complacency. VIX has been holding solid, some fear still out there. There is the gap at 12 too.

      Delete
  32. The bigger picture is this...most people on this site are long of UVXY at 14-15. The price is now 7.

    Dreaming that they will go up 1,000% is going to cost people their shirts.

    May I suggest SC, that you at least warm people of the risk because many of the people on your site may not have trading experience.

    The fact is that UVXY go down 10% per month....there is no guarantee that the mkt will crash. Let the buyer beware there are safer investment strategies out there.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Definitely trading volatility etfs is aggressive. There are other etfs such as VXX that have less leverage too.

      Most of my analysis is S&P. Many prefer to trade S&P and avoid VIX futures trading altogether. There are lots of way to trade S&P with or without leverage.

      So without question people do need to be responsible and decide whether a strategy is appropriate for their specific financial situation and level of knowledge.

      Delete
  33. I will take a position in UVXY when the mkt hits 1600ish....we are gearing up for a big move up in the mkt to kill all the bears.

    I only trade UVXY, never hold a bad position, I'm not in it to make a fortune, I always take my profits & only trade this beast 2-4 times a year.

    My call is around 6.3 for UVXY based on a chart SC produced a couple of weeks ago but I'm very flexible.

    ReplyDelete
  34. SC / PAYDAY

    Both of you watch UVXY a lot more than I do....

    My call for the mkt is a wave 3 high of 1600-1620 then a corrective 4 to 1460 over the summer before new highs yr end.

    QUESTION - "IF" this scenario works out....how much are UVXY likely to go up in a 150 point correction in the S&P over the summer months in your opinion?

    Let's assume base line price for UVXY will be 6 at 1600.

    Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. That is similar to what the UVXY Cycle suggests. For UVXY that gap area at $19 to low $20's is the natural place to look assuming a strong spike in VIX.

      VIX doesn't always spike strongly along with S&P drops historically (such as Nov), but lately since December VIX has been spiking on drops for S&P. The target seems realistic given that in late December S&P fell 50 points and UVXY nearly doubled.

      Delete
    2. I have 1600 - 1610 in the May 14 - 16 time frame, and the down to Jul 29 - Aug 8 timeframe. Solid 18 - 20% correction. Posted here:

      http://timethetrade.blogspot.ca/p/s-roadmap-till-mid-june.html

      Been quite accurate with the S&P calls since about Jan 28th....

      Delete
  35. You guys are still listening to this SC person.. hes been saying market crash since last summer... how many of you have lost money on this... He seems to have endless pockets... Hey SC what happened to your silver crash..

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  36. Silver did crash in Sept 2011 soon after I called it in the summer of 2011, and Silver has been in a bear market for 2 years!

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    Replies
    1. Silver down 50% from 2011 high. People were talking about $75 and $100 Silver in 2011...

      Delete
  37. Finally VIX cooling off.

    SCApril 2, 2013 at 11:11 AM
    "I've been still waiting to see if VIX can come down into the 11's."


    SCApril 1, 2013 at 6:26 AM
    "It seems VIX may come down to 11.25 to 11.50 area, and that UVXY would be interesting."

    ReplyDelete
  38. The proof is in the track record. SC how much are you down thus far? You can not be right if you are losing money?

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  39. Took profits on the last trades when my Cycles were calling for the sharp rally phase in Nov. Bought SPX at 1378 in Nov.

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  40. I was bullish at the bottom in Nov and no I don't toot the bullhorn into major tops.

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  41. Sure, if it makes you feel better to papertrade. Lest's talk about you November 2011 calls. S&P 1040?

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  42. SPX plunged 140 points in Nov 2011.

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  43. Phil, i'm also long XIV which is very profitable. Just buy the dips. As long as xiv stays over its 50 dma should be ok!

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  44. Yeah, you went short at 1080 looking for 1040? Looking for a major drop all the way to Feb. 2012. Remember ZZ put you in your place for a RALLY in Jan 2012. Get real dude, you calls are the worst.

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  45. I was bullish SPX Aug/Sept 2011. Yes, I was bearish early 2012, and the market plunged in May. Any SPX shorts taken at any time in early 2012 were profitable in May.

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  46. "Wednesday, November 30, 2011
    $SPX - Exceptionally Bearish Now"

    Here is the post. You stayed BEARISH basically the whole year in 2012!

    http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/11/spx-exceptionally-bearish-now.html

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  47. "$SPX - 2012 Crash Target 980 SPX

    The market has persisted higher, and this has confirmed the presence of larger cycles involved. Therefore, the 2012 target for SPX is lowered to 980. The 2012 forecast is for a weaker year than the 2011 correction. A 30% decline, or 415 SPX point decline, is indicated with measured price boxes."

    http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/03/spx-2012-crash-target-980-spx.html

    ReplyDelete
  48. Unknown, ZZ also made some wrong calls. And now they charging for the info which half the time they contradict each other!

    Everyone needs to do their own DD and take responsibility.

    Easy to criticize others and you hide behind an anonymous handle.
    Please start your own blog and post your 100% success rate

    ReplyDelete
  49. Well the market did not get the big drop in 2012 but right after I posted that analysis, SPX plunged 160 points or 12%.

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  50. Payday...believe me, I track many blogs and do my DD. I ride SC hard becasue never once he admitted he has been SO wrong in this market. He just posted,
    "Yes, I was bearish early 2012, and the market plunged in May. Any SPX shorts taken at any time in early 2012 were profitable in May."

    The dude called for shorting, then he called to go long in April of 2011. That's when the market declined for a few months. He was wrong there also. Don't forget the UVXY trade he put out last summer presplit at 17-20. It went down to 3! He amazes me with his bad calls. Yet he never once admits it.

    ReplyDelete
  51. Replies
    1. Sounds about right. Thank you.

      Delete
  52. I called for a waterfall decline April 26th, 2012.

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  53. "Well the market did not get the big drop in 2012 but right after I posted that analysis, SPX plunged 160 points or 12%."

    There you go again. You really think you called for the 12% decline? It's like you are long UVXY at 14.50 It falls to 6, then it pops to 9.5. You will post you nail it it because it finally pop from 6 to 9.5, but yet fail to realize the BAD call from 14.50 to 6. Get real dude.

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  54. Look at where $14 UVXY is in this large Cycle. The high for UVXY is $2448.00.

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  55. I only look at trackrecord.

    3/10/12

    "$SPX - 2012 Crash Target 980 SPX

    The market has persisted higher, and this has confirmed the presence of larger cycles involved. Therefore, the 2012 target for SPX is lowered to 980. The 2012 forecast is for a weaker year than the 2011 correction. A 30% decline, or 415 SPX point decline, is indicated with measured price boxes."

    http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/03/spx-2012-crash-target-980-spx.html

    ReplyDelete
  56. Right after I posted that analysis, SPX plunged 160 points or 12%.

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  57. Why is VIX not giving a sh-t that S&P rallying?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, interesting how it is holding in there....

      Delete
  58. So you were extreme bearish at 1080 in Nov. 30, 2011 to the high of 1410 in April of 2012. It dropped 160 points from there, and your were, right?

    Like i mentioned, uvxy dropped from 14.50 to 6, and rebound to 9.50. Will you be right on the call from 6 to 9.50 or wrong from 14.50 to 6?



    ReplyDelete
  59. SC, SS76 mentioned this but what chances do you see UVXY doing another reverse split before June/July? With a rising market and the decay factor, I could see it happening as well

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The manager has done reverse splits for UVXY in the $5 range in the past.

      Delete
  60. There is a chartist I follow who appeared to have fantastic charts...and then i paid close attention...the charts are accurate because they get re-edited AFTER THE FACT. Example, one spx chart labeled 1573 as 5 of 5 high, now this morning its showing 1586 as the 5 of 5 high. Lots of tricks to this trade. Superior records may not aways be the case.

    I appreciate SC work for my own analysis. If the uvxy does in fact pay out as the everest cycle it should be a very interesting time indeed.


    Since we are very close to the blue arrow bottom, we should have confirmation of risk/reward very shortly. I'm willing to stick around to see ( but holding xiv until definite turn below 50 dma)

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  61. Unknown, if you were a paying subscriber to SC and his work, i could understand your frustration at wrong calls...but this is FREE info (which I appreciate).

    ReplyDelete
  62. ".but this is FREE info (which I appreciate)."

    Free info? but what is the intention? For three weeks, uvxy dropped from 11 to 7, and SC screened many other posters' posts including mines.

    Now, he is letting everyone posts? We all know SC calls are bad, but what is his intention???

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. What were you offering besides "Wrong calls" etc etc etc. it takes me awhile to load this page on my phone and i for one would appreciate it if NOISE" was filtered out.

      Delete
  63. You know the market is approaching a major peak when the nuts start coming out with conspiracy theories.

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  64. If you look closely at the Mount Everest Cycle you can actually see where we are right now. There is a wedge, then UVXY drops down vertical down below the wedge.

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  65. Huh? I don't see it. Can you post a zoom in?

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  66. Yes, will post today. Amazing how the Cycle predicted that move.

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  67. When the hell is it predicting the reversal...this is nuts!!!

    XIV beating my wildest expectations! Perhaps i will add more....then watch for the immediate reversal as I have an uncanny ability to add XIV at the tops..lol!

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    Replies
    1. It looks to me that XIV may dip soon tomorrow/Fri, then higher after. Don't fall in love for sure...

      Delete
    2. Be careful if XIV gaps way up one day. Warning sign imo.

      Delete
    3. SC, you say don't fall in love with XIV....I think you meant UVXY. With XIV, you will always get your money back, even if VIX futures shoot up to 100 again. With UVXY, there is no guarantee you will get any money back, and a chances are if you have a buy and hold strategy you will lose all your money.

      Now, with that said, UVXY could be interesting here, but timing is an issue I think. As its trading futures and shifting toward the next contract, much more potential to drop further before the top date I have in Mid May....either way, overnight is risky.

      Delete
    4. No, XIV is getting very expensive so use precautions. XIV decays too, but only 1x leverage.

      Delete
    5. Is there a 2x Xiv product? I thought it was SVXY?

      Delete
    6. No SVXY just 1x as well. There isn't any 2x etf to my knowledge. Could make a synthetic position etc...

      Delete
  68. I'll be looking to buy UVXY next week.

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  69. Interesting that UVXY is dropping on low volume. I like that a lot.

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  70. "Interesting that UVXY is dropping on low volume. I like that a lot."

    If you own it at 14.50, you gotta love it at 6.5! Btw, i thought it has limited downside at 11? You see how bad your calls are? Sooner or later, of course it will bounce. The problem is, you will claim you are right because it bounces from the lows. Think about it. Who is posting these days beside "unknown" & "payday"?

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  71. Btw, remember you asked ss76 why own tza? Russell can go parabolic? tza would be crushed? yet, it was your uvxy that got crushed not tza. LOL!!!

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  72. This comment has been removed by the author.

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  73. What I said was that Nasdaq was weaker than RUT earlier this year.

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  74. SPX right now reminds me of Bitcoin...to the moon baby!

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    Replies
    1. Bitcoin is just bizarre. Interesting concept but way ahead of it's time. We don't even have any currency problems now. Yen may be the closest...

      Delete