VIX has trended up for 7 weeks, and that is a serious warning as well as confirmation of the Cycle. However, for VIX to hit an extreme level of complacency it may decline closer to the mid-March bottom.
Currently VIX is testing the trendline.
30min Chart
The Deja Vu Cycle expanding formation is shown with the red lines. Notice that there is an overshoot at point A.
VIX has trended up for 7 weeks, and that is a serious warning. However, for VIX to hit an extreme level of complacency it may retest near the green line.
Currently VIX is testing the trendline from mid-March.
30min Chart
SPX bounced at the horizontal in April so this is the last push.
ReplyDeleteThe green line for VIX is the level when the Cyprus event started. VIX has been rising ever since then, but ideally VIX should retest around that level.
I thought you stated that market had topped many times this year ...clearly you keep expanding your top targets... yes, eventually the market will drop if you push out your timeline far enough. Take some accountability SC you have been wrong... your cycles had you shorting at 1472 clearly you have mismanaged your positions and the sign of a good trader is to admit they are wrong and learn from it.
ReplyDeleteThe fact VIX has been rising for 7 weeks is reason not to trust this rally, and also evidence in support of the Deja Vu Cycle.
ReplyDeleteVIX is foretelling what happens once point A is reached.
There is no question that this was a tricky topping process. This rally is stretching to the limits with the expanding formation.
ReplyDeleteEven so it is still acting in accordance with the Cycle. VIX agrees with the Cycle.
SC,
ReplyDeleteIf VIX just hits the blue line, instead of the pink or green line, and then keeps rising, would this model still be considered valid?
Yes it would be valid, the Cycle models are near completion. VIX may see a bounce again from around this blue level first.
DeleteHowever, I think VIX is most likely to test nearer to the green line before the market falls below the horizontal red support.
I think SPX will probably backtest around 1600 this week and then a final pop to reach point A.
ReplyDeleteAfter reaching point A where would your point P be on the SPX now approx? and after reaching lows on the VIX what is your first rally target now? Still Jan 1/13 levels? Are you still expecting sharp rise in VIX or choppy action for months?
DeleteOnce point A is reached, SPX should drop to test the horizontal red support and there is a small bounce in the Cycle there before the hroizontal red line breaks.
DeleteOnce that red line breaks then down to Point P.
Point P should be in the high 1300's to low 1400's. One thing to keep in mind is the SPX main trendline from March 2009. I'll explain this more in the future.
Once VIX bottoms then rise to 18-20, dip and into the 30's as SPX approaches Point P.
"Take some accountability SC you have been wrong..."
ReplyDeleteAccountability, are you kidding? Here is the guy that held UVXY from 17 to 3 late last summer presplit. He never once admitted he was wrong. Amazing huh?
In fact I was long XIV last year, while you couldn't believe XIV would reach $10.45, and were calling for P3 - end of the world.
ReplyDeleteJune 1st, 2012:
Unknown has left a new comment on your post "XIV - Triangle Pattern":
"LOL!!! If it hit 10.45 in the near term, I will leave you alone."
UnknownJune 13, 2012 at 1:13 PM
"You guys better listen to my boy T-bone over at Daneric's blog.
P3 is getting ready to start!!!"
Wow, you traded to 10.45? Great job! It's at 24 right now if yould held it. Instead, you gave it all back on the UVXY from 17-3! LOL!!!
DeleteWhat a SMART trader you are!
I traded XIV and UVXY numerous times last year. It was a choppy year and in and out all year.
DeleteYes, but please tell us about your UVXY from 17 to 3 presplit. Ouch! How about the one from this year 14.5 to 5.8? Double ouch!
DeleteNever made that trade last year. Building up a position this year for a huge move.
DeleteI'm going to be getting aggressive soon.
DeleteGlad to be positioning at extremely low levels for UVXY from the $2448 high of 2011.
DeleteBoy, you should reread your comments from August to September. You are such in denial.
DeleteThere's a difference between the quality of Carl Futia, Tony Caldero and this blog.
Two blogsters have been making a killing on buying every single dips. You been getting slammed and never admit you been WRONG. That's why your credibilty is shot.
Don't worry, I will join you on the dark side soon and we both will make a killing on the shorts. Too bad you just couldn't make money on the upside the past three years. LOL!!!
I bought the dip in Nov and caught much of the sharp rally phase which I called in Nov. In fact I was long XIV last year, while you couldn't believe XIV would reach $10.45, and were calling for P3 - end of the world.
DeleteJune 1st, 2012:
Unknown has left a new comment on your post "XIV - Triangle Pattern":
"LOL!!! If it hit 10.45 in the near term, I will leave you alone."
UnknownJune 13, 2012 at 1:13 PM
"You guys better listen to my boy T-bone over at Daneric's blog.
P3 is getting ready to start!!!"
I sense a little hostility. If you feel proud you sold XIV at 10.45, then how do you feel about it at 24?
DeleteBtw, please comment on your prediction oF UVXY with a target price of 40, which is 400 presplit on July 15.
How bad was that CALL?
"I will be lowering my SPX target closer to 1200 for September. The UVXY September maximum target is approximately $40."
SPX did plunge 130 points into Nov but VIX never did spike on that plunge - which was unusual.
DeleteIt actually ran up and made a new highs til last week of September at 1475, then it started falling in October to 1350 in November. So you missed it badly by owning & calling 1200 in September and UVXY to hit 400 in September.
DeleteCome on SC, don't you remember your posts?
SPX started to plunge in Sept.
Delete"I will be lowering my SPX target closer to 1200 for September. The UVXY September maximum target is approximately $40.
DeleteLast day of September closing price is 1440? So you were 240 points off?
Anybody shorting the market in Aug or Sept made money when it plunged in Sept.
DeleteJust keep it simple. Were you 240 point off? LOL!!!
DeleteYou are too easy.
"I will be lowering my SPX target closer to 1200 for September."
SP closed at 1440 end of September.
June 1st, 2012:
DeleteUnknown has left a new comment on your post "XIV - Triangle Pattern":
"LOL!!! If it hit 10.45 in the near term, I will leave you alone."
UnknownJune 13, 2012 at 1:13 PM
"You guys better listen to my boy T-bone over at Daneric's blog.
P3 is getting ready to start!!!"
I must getting the real SC out you, huh! LOL!
Delete240 points off and your are right. LOL!!!
June 1st, 2012:
DeleteUnknown has left a new comment on your post "XIV - Triangle Pattern":
"LOL!!! If it hit 10.45 in the near term, I will leave you alone."
UnknownJune 13, 2012 at 1:13 PM
"You guys better listen to my boy T-bone over at Daneric's blog.
P3 is getting ready to start!!!"
Just pointing out to the readers that you were bearish in early June 2012 calling for P3 down, and now here to tell everyone to "buy the dips" in S&P. More evidence of major market top near.
DeleteSo when you were calling for 980 last year, is that the reason why the markets broke out higher? Funny how you never admit the 980 call was the worst call ever.
DeleteBtw, I do believe we are in the middle of P3. P4 at 1450 and P5 around 2200. Then the next bear market. It's better than calling 980 since 2011. LOL!!!
Prepare to be shocked....
DeleteNow that you are bullish the big crash is about to start.
Delete"Prepare to be shocked.."
DeleteI am already shocked with these horrendous calls.
S&P to 980 end of 2012
UVXY to 400 by September 2012.
"I will be lowering my SPX target closer to 1200 for September."
SP closed at 1440 end of September.
Just pointing out to the readers that you were bearish in early June 2012 calling for P3 down, and now here to tell everyone to "buy the dips" in S&P. More evidence of major market top near.
DeleteNow that you are bullish the big crash is about to start.
I can never be as bearish as you on the 980 call, right?
DeleteIt's ok...I can sense I am getting to you by the way you quickly respond. Never let them see you sweat. LOL!!!
It's just a matter now of waiting for complacency to reach an extreme level.
ReplyDelete1600 SPX is quite important, and a dip to backtest that level this week would make sense. Then a final pop before the crash.
ReplyDeleteOnce the expanding formation concludes, the Cycle predicts that SPX is exhausted and collapses.
ReplyDeleteLooks like UVXY is trying to tag the lower Bollenger Band on the daily which would be the low $5 range. It's usually good for a bounch in that area. I'm think of taking a position around Wednesday depending on what tomorrow does.
ReplyDeleteThank you, let's see how things shape up this week.
DeleteWhat's your target for this ongoing Cycle Expanding Formation?
ReplyDeleteTarget for SPX I mean
ReplyDeleteIt'll be helpful to see how the market behaves this week to fine tune that number and timing. 1640+ it seems. If it is similar to the Cycle it may overshoot the upper red line.
Delete"It looks like it may be part of a cup and handle pattern for UVXY. The cup formed over the last week. That was the rounded bottom. Now form handle."
ReplyDeleteDude, you are just killing me! That's why I stop by at least once a day. Best blog for a good laugh! LOL!!!
Just pointing out to the readers that you were bearish in early June 2012 calling for P3 down, and now here to tell everyone to "buy the dips" in S&P. More evidence of major market top near.
ReplyDeleteNow that you are bullish the big crash is nearing.
June 1st, 2012:
Unknown has left a new comment on your post "XIV - Triangle Pattern":
"LOL!!! If it hit 10.45 in the near term, I will leave you alone."
UnknownJune 13, 2012 at 1:13 PM
"You guys better listen to my boy T-bone over at Daneric's blog.
P3 is getting ready to start!!!"
"Wednesday, November 30, 2011
ReplyDelete$SPX - Exceptionally Bearish Now"
Here is the post. You stayed BEARISH basically the whole year in 2012! Ouch!
http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/11/spx-exceptionally-bearish-now.html
How can I be in shocked with these horrendous calls?
ReplyDelete"$SPX - 2012 Crash Target 980 SPX
The market has persisted higher, and this has confirmed the presence of larger cycles involved. Therefore, the 2012 target for SPX is lowered to 980. The 2012 forecast is for a weaker year than the 2011 correction. A 30% decline, or 415 SPX point decline, is indicated with measured price boxes."
http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.com/2012/03/spx-2012-crash-target-980-spx.html
SPX plunged into Dec 2011. Bears made profits on that negative Cycle.
ReplyDeleteCome on SC, just answer the question, did we hit 980 for 2012? LOL!!!
ReplyDeleteYes, the March/April 2012 waterfall call worked out nicely when SPX plunged 150 points or 11% soon afterwards.
ReplyDeleteBears made nice profits.
Sure, they did. Just like the pull back a few weeks ago. Bears made profits, but not from your shorts of 1472 and UVXY at 14.5 LOL!!!
ReplyDeleteSo bears made profits, but SC is down 65%...LOL!!!
I luv you. Best blog for a good laugh.
Good to see some extreme emotions coming out....facts are facts though, can't dispute them, the super bears have been completely wrong & will continue to be wrong until one day the mkt will crash & they will all claim victory.
ReplyDeleteBut who cares....that's why so many people lose money in the mkts, their ego & pride gets in the way. IF SC wants to be long UVXY at 14.5 & be down 60% that's up to him.
Don't listen to predictions...just trade what you see with tight stops.
The most useful part of this website is when there are 100 or so comments, it's time to have a larger position in UVXY.
Forget the charts, that is historic data to build your a bias opinion. Emotion is what we are trading...
I am flat again having sold my UVXY for another profit...looking to buy over the next couple of days.
Yup, SC is letting out his true emotions. He does not realize people do not get fool easily. You can fool one or two, but sooner or later, people do remember ALL the bad calls.
ReplyDeleteI do like you SC, but I think you should be a comedian instead of a trader. Numbers do not lie. LOL!!!
Just pointing out to the readers that you were bearish in early June 2012 calling for P3 down, and now here to tell everyone to "buy the dips" in S&P. More evidence of major market top near.
ReplyDeleteNow that you are bullish the big crash is nearing.
Want to hear some raw emotion. This one from the pits is a classic from the 2010 flashcrash:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E1xqSZy9_4I
Hi SC,
ReplyDeleteIs this what you mean by P3?
$SPX - 2012 Crash Target 980 SPX
The market has persisted higher, and this has confirmed the presence of larger cycles involved. Therefore, the 2012 target for SPX is lowered to 980. The 2012 forecast is for a weaker year than the 2011 correction. A 30% decline, or 415 SPX point decline, is indicated with measured price boxes."
We're going lower than 980. That is too high.
ReplyDeleteBut you are two years off. Instead of looking for the top, you could have killed it by buying the dips! Carl Futia & Tony Caldero would kept you in the game and on track.
ReplyDeleteListen to Dr. Phil,,
"that's why so many people lose money in the mkts, their ego & pride gets in the way. IF SC wants to be long UVXY at 14.5 & be down 60% that's up to him. "
This is better for the pit trader from the May 6, 2010 flashcrash. Today is the anniversary of the crash.
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jUzigCDavU
Sounds like another reverse split is around the corner for UVXY. It is getting cheaper and cheaper by the day.
ReplyDeleteWho cares? Reverse splits have no effect on performance in etfs.
ReplyDeleteSC, there was a paper somewhere showing that there is statistically important correlation between reverse splits and under performance after the fact. Cant find the link.
Delete"Who cares?"
ReplyDeleteObviously you don't, that's why you are down 60+% on your trades. LOL!!!
I think your readers are seeing your true color now. LOL!!!
Just pointing out to the readers that you were bearish in early June 2012 calling for P3 down, and now here to tell everyone to "buy the dips" in S&P. More evidence of major market top near.
ReplyDeleteNow that you are bullish the big crash is nearing.
June 1st, 2012:
Unknown has left a new comment on your post "XIV - Triangle Pattern":
"LOL!!! If it hit 10.45 in the near term, I will leave you alone."
UnknownJune 13, 2012 at 1:13 PM
"You guys better listen to my boy T-bone over at Daneric's blog.
P3 is getting ready to start!!!"
Hi SC,
ReplyDeleteIs this what you mean by P3?
$SPX - 2012 Crash Target 980 SPX
The market has persisted higher, and this has confirmed the presence of larger cycles involved. Therefore, the 2012 target for SPX is lowered to 980. The 2012 forecast is for a weaker year than the 2011 correction. A 30% decline, or 415 SPX point decline, is indicated with measured price boxes."
Bears made large profits on the call when SPX plunged soon afterwards.
ReplyDeleteListen to Dr. Phil,,
ReplyDelete"that's why so many people lose money in the mkts, their ego & pride gets in the way. IF SC wants to be long UVXY at 14.5 & be down 60% that's up to him. "
Just pointing out to the readers that you were bearish in early June 2012 calling for P3 down, and now here to tell everyone to "buy the dips" in S&P. More evidence of major market top near.
ReplyDeleteNow that you are bullish the big crash is nearing.
June 1st, 2012:
Unknown has left a new comment on your post "XIV - Triangle Pattern":
"LOL!!! If it hit 10.45 in the near term, I will leave you alone."
UnknownJune 13, 2012 at 1:13 PM
"You guys better listen to my boy T-bone over at Daneric's blog.
P3 is getting ready to start!!!"
"Take some accountability SC you have been wrong... your cycles had you shorting at 1472 clearly you have mismanaged your positions and the sign of a good trader is to admit they are wrong and learn from it."
ReplyDeleteWill post the large profits when I take them. As explained with the large Cycles.
ReplyDeleteObviously I have no interest in daytrading at this time since my Cycles are pointing to major moves coming for the markets. Some core short positions stay in place at all times. Currently waiting to take aggressive positions.
ReplyDeleteMonday, December 5, 2011
ReplyDeleteSPY - Top is IN!
All of the cycles and methods that I use in my analysis are unanimously bearish with a major decline commencing today, and continuing through December. The symmetry indicates that the decline will be steady, relentless with no significant bounces until 1044 SPX.
A substantial bounce is expected from the 1044 SPX January 2012 target. A final low is estimated at 1025 SPX early 2012. The entire process is mapped out in the symmetry to be an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern encompassing several months early 2012. The target at the green arrow is the Left Shoulder.
This is a market trending downwards. There have been lower highs since late October, and in fact, lower highs since May.
Yes, SPX plunged in December too. Bears made profits there as well.
ReplyDelete"A final low is estimated at 1025 SPX early 2012."
ReplyDeleteWe closed January at 1312. Almost 300 points off the target. I am sure Bears made profit as well. LOL!!!
Like I mentioned, SC is the best comedian in town.
Hi SC,
ReplyDeleteIs this what you mean by P3?
$SPX - 2012 Crash Target 980 SPX
The market has persisted higher, and this has confirmed the presence of larger cycles involved. Therefore, the 2012 target for SPX is lowered to 980. The 2012 forecast is for a weaker year than the 2011 correction. A 30% decline, or 415 SPX point decline, is indicated with measured price boxes."
Just pointing out to the readers that you were bearish in early June 2012 calling for P3 down, and now here to tell everyone to "buy the dips" in S&P. More evidence of major market top near.
ReplyDeleteNow that you are bullish the big crash is nearing.
June 1st, 2012:
Unknown has left a new comment on your post "XIV - Triangle Pattern":
"LOL!!! If it hit 10.45 in the near term, I will leave you alone."
UnknownJune 13, 2012 at 1:13 PM
"You guys better listen to my boy T-bone over at Daneric's blog.
P3 is getting ready to start!!!"
There are 79 posts on this board. So far, there are four other posters that made comments. Guess I am not the only one that question SC's credibilty. The best comic blog in town!
ReplyDelete"Take some accountability SC you have been wrong... your cycles had you shorting at 1472 clearly you have mismanaged your positions and the sign of a good trader is to admit they are wrong and learn from it."
"that's why so many people lose money in the mkts, their ego & pride gets in the way. IF SC wants to be long UVXY at 14.5 & be down 60% that's up to him. "
"Sounds like another reverse split is around the corner for UVXY. It is getting cheaper and cheaper by the day."
I wish you guys would quit pissing all over this place. SC has made some good calls and some bad ones, but he provides his analysis for free and no one has any reason to complain. If you like it, incorporate it into your own analysis, taking it for whatever it may be worth. If you don't like it, then go away. But why waste your time posting a dozen insults and complaints every day?
ReplyDeleteExactly as would be expected right before the crash.
ReplyDelete"Exactly as would be expected right before the crash."
ReplyDeleteSo posts like this means a parabolic run is coming?
$SPX - 2012 Crash Target 980 SPX
The market has persisted higher, and this has confirmed the presence of larger cycles involved. Therefore, the 2012 target for SPX is lowered to 980. The 2012 forecast is for a weaker year than the 2011 correction. A 30% decline, or 415 SPX point decline, is indicated with measured price boxes."
or
Monday, December 5, 2011
SPY - Top is IN!
All of the cycles and methods that I use in my analysis are unanimously bearish with a major decline commencing today, and continuing through December. The symmetry indicates that the decline will be steady, relentless with no significant bounces until 1044 SPX.
A substantial bounce is expected from the 1044 SPX January 2012 target. A final low is estimated at 1025 SPX early 2012. The entire process is mapped out in the symmetry to be an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern encompassing several months early 2012. The target at the green arrow is the Left Shoulder.
This is a market trending downwards. There have been lower highs since late October, and in fact, lower highs since May.
Bears made nice profits shortly after each analysis in both cases.
ReplyDeleteJust pointing out to the readers that you were bearish in early June 2012 calling for P3 down, and now here to tell everyone to "buy the dips" in S&P. More evidence of major market top near.
ReplyDeleteNow that you are bullish the big crash is nearing.
June 1st, 2012:
Unknown has left a new comment on your post "XIV - Triangle Pattern":
"LOL!!! If it hit 10.45 in the near term, I will leave you alone."
UnknownJune 13, 2012 at 1:13 PM
"You guys better listen to my boy T-bone over at Daneric's blog.
P3 is getting ready to start!!!"
Sure...thats why you were off by 300 points in January 2012 and 240 point September 2012. Again, we ALL seen your track record. LOL!!!
ReplyDeleteBtw, during this huge rally this year, the BEARS made profit too! LOL...Yet, how much are you down on your shorts?
Will post the large profits when I take them - as explained with the large Cycles.
ReplyDeleteObviously I have no interest in daytrading at this time since my Cycles are pointing to major moves coming for the markets. Some core short positions stay in place at all times. Currently waiting to take aggressive positions.
"Obviously I have no interest in daytrading"
ReplyDeleteThat's why you traded xiv for .50 cents at 10. It's at 24 now!!! LOL
$SPX - 2012 Crash Target 980 SPX
The market has persisted higher, and this has confirmed the presence of larger cycles involved. Therefore, the 2012 target for SPX is lowered to 980. The 2012 forecast is for a weaker year than the 2011 correction. A 30% decline, or 415 SPX point decline, is indicated with measured price boxes."
You will never admit you were wrong. Your READERS know the real deal. That's why for awhile you were deleting posts that question your strategy.
ReplyDeleteThe last four years been amazing for the dip buyers. You on the other hand been looking for a 980 since 2011! Who made money? LOL!!!
Just pointing out to the readers that you were bearish in early June 2012 calling for P3 down, and now here to tell everyone to "buy the dips" in S&P. More evidence of major market top near.
ReplyDeleteNow that you are bullish the big crash is nearing.
June 1st, 2012:
Unknown has left a new comment on your post "XIV - Triangle Pattern":
"LOL!!! If it hit 10.45 in the near term, I will leave you alone."
UnknownJune 13, 2012 at 1:13 PM
"You guys better listen to my boy T-bone over at Daneric's blog.
P3 is getting ready to start!!!"
Yes, the precious metal bulls tried to tell me that my bearish Cycles were wrong too, and the odd one still pops in once in a while. Fewer as time passes and the bear market in precious metals continues...
ReplyDeleteI'm sure the S&P bulls will try to tell me my Cycles are wrong all the way down on each bounce.
ReplyDelete"I'm sure the S&P bulls will try to tell me my Cycles are wrong all the way down on each bounce"
ReplyDeleteIs this why you been looking for 980 in the S&P the past few years? How did it work out? LOL!!!
Just pointing out to the readers that you were bearish in early June 2012 calling for P3 down, and now here to tell everyone to "buy the dips" in S&P. More evidence of major market top near.
ReplyDeleteNow that you are bullish the big crash is nearing.
June 1st, 2012:
Unknown has left a new comment on your post "XIV - Triangle Pattern":
"LOL!!! If it hit 10.45 in the near term, I will leave you alone."
UnknownJune 13, 2012 at 1:13 PM
"You guys better listen to my boy T-bone over at Daneric's blog.
P3 is getting ready to start!!!"
The bottom line remains the same: sitting on a loss is a loss & never becomes a profit until it is sold above the price you paid. Anything is pure noise...
ReplyDeletePerhaps save the 'will post the large profits when I take them' for when UVXY are above 14.50.
Who cares what any other blog says too...they are just opinions in a manipulated market.
Tom McClellan summed up the current environment in his daily report yesterday by discussing the dangers of trying to forecast a particular chart structure before it has formed.
A futile exercise which generally doesn't work...
The upper red trendline for SPX today is at 1632.
ReplyDeleteSo you be down 160 from your S&P short then, right?
ReplyDeleteI've been waiting to build up an aggressive short position.
ReplyDeleteSo for now you are still 65% under water then, right? Let's discuss your profit once you sell it for a profit, but for now let's focus on your loss positions. Did you learn anything about stops and money management during this experimental process of yours?
ReplyDeleteJust pointing out to the readers that you were bearish in early June 2012 calling for P3 down, and now here to tell everyone to "buy the dips" in S&P. More evidence of major market top near.
ReplyDeleteNow that you are bullish the big crash is nearing.
June 1st, 2012:
Unknown has left a new comment on your post "XIV - Triangle Pattern":
"LOL!!! If it hit 10.45 in the near term, I will leave you alone."
UnknownJune 13, 2012 at 1:13 PM
"You guys better listen to my boy T-bone over at Daneric's blog.
P3 is getting ready to start!!!"
Well SPX came within a point of the red line which is close enough. It's official the crash pattern from the Cycle is in play.
ReplyDeleteHowever, it's important to note that in the Cycle price does overshoot the red line. What could happen here is SPX dips first, then overshoots the upper red line.
We'll see as it plays out.
[v] may reach as high as 1.647.
DeleteGone back into the decaying beast at 5.92....VIX heading slightly higher along with the mkt.
ReplyDeleteSC, Whats your plan for scaling into UVXY? Several blocks over specific time period or buying on price strength? Also, where do you see UVXY trading in the coming months?
ReplyDeleteCheers!
To enter UVXY optimally I would like to see SPX overshoot this upper red line, and also VIX above 11 but under 12 would be ideal.
DeleteThe target from the Cycle is the yellow arrow target which projects to high teens for UVXY.
There may be a pop for VIX and dip for SPX soon but there may be support around 1600. Once 1540 breaks the pattern is confirmed breakdown.
DeleteSC, Does it really make a big difference VIX 13 or VIX 11-12?
DeleteConsidering where you are holding UVXY from and you are still looking for a big turn i'd say close enough and start loading up the truck.
There's no weakness in this market. It's more than likely going to come from an unexpected event, if at all. With the markets being flooded with the Feds 'Monopoly money' it's just almost impossible to know when it turns
ReplyDeleteThere's weakness around 1.640. Let's wait.
DeleteH,
DeleteMost traders have 0 knowledge about timing. Thats why they think it is impossible to know when it turns.
Cheers.
You should ask SC on his timing. He shorted in January at 1472! He's down 65% on uvxy! How's that for timing? LOL!!!
ReplyDeleteNot a big difference at this point. One thing I will say is that the Cycle suggests a bounce at 1540 which is another spot to short in case miss the top.
ReplyDelete[iii] looks to be over. [iv] may drop as low as 1599 then comes a bounce [v].
DeleteQuite possible it plays out that way.
DeleteI can see weakness around 1640. If I am corect [v] won't go over 1.647. Let's wait. Best.
DeleteDoes anyone knows where is SS76? that guy nailed it beautifully S & P run and timing, I know he was the only one shouting in beginning of April in any forum that this rally will extend till May first or second week...
ReplyDeleteSS76 can you come out of your hiding? I know you have your own website etc.
Cheers
Get real!!!!!!!!! He must be your brother. He has no credibility at all. He has had multiple maps when it suits him and manipulated his trade history! He tried to copy zig!
DeleteUnder capitalization and proper money management is one of the biggest problems for retail traders. This comes in before and is probably more important than any indicators or signals you use to enter a trade.
ReplyDeleteTo trade confidently you have to have enough capital to take on trades without taking too much risk but where your gains are big enough to keep you interested. For some instruments it means taking only 1 contract per every 100,000$ of capital.This way with proper trade management you have enough to not get whip-sawed out of the position if your timing is off and also your gains are big enough to keep you interested in the trade when it does work out. Most of them will not. Its how you handle your bad ones is what counts.
What happens with most retail traders is they take on too much risk with too little capital and they eventually get wiped out.
Ultimately signals or indicators do not matter as a lot/most of them will fail. Some of the best performing traders can have 20-30% accurate call rate. Its how they handle the other 70-80% of inaccurate calls is what gets them ahead of the crowd.
SC, care to spill some beans about this part of your trading plan? I feel like it has to be a separate post/discussion.
Thanks.
Clearly SC does not use ANY money management based on his positions..
ReplyDeleteActually, i think the opposite is true. The only way you can survive 160point rally against your short position is if you have taken appropriate risk initially.
ReplyDeleteLets say you are trading $100,000 account. Your standard size of 1 position is 10% of the account. Thats your 1 lot. [Normally you'd have a certain % stop loss (2-3%) on each lot]
Per public record, SC currently has 2 positions open: #1 is down 60%. Another one is down - if one sold 1 e-mini snp500 contract at 1475, by $8,000. So total portfolio down by $14,000 per $100,000. Roughly. Im just showing how this could work with appropriate risk management.
Its completely different story if you tried to bite more than you can swallow. That could wipe you out.
SC never disclosed his position/portfolio sizes, for obvious reasons, or all trades he makes for that matter. So those numbers up there mean nothing. It could be 10 shares for all i know, but seeing how he has over 1 decade experience trading and he is still alive im guessing portfolio is a decent size and most likely with very good risk allocation.
Otherwise if you are too aggressive (dumb) you can not survive this kind of rally.
Wow! He's been around since 2003? He must be a PRO!!! And he's trading like this? And he makes a SP target of 980 for 2012 and doesn't own up to it?
ReplyDelete$SPX - 2012 Crash Target 980 SPX
The market has persisted higher, and this has confirmed the presence of larger cycles involved. Therefore, the 2012 target for SPX is lowered to 980. The 2012 forecast is for a weaker year than the 2011 correction. A 30% decline, or 415 SPX point decline, is indicated with measured price boxes."
I've been around a lot longer than that. SPX plunged 11% right after that analysis was posted. Bears did very well.
ReplyDelete"SPX plunged 11% right after that analysis was posted. Bears did very well."
ReplyDeleteLets's get into more detail, shall we. You said it dropped 11% after that post? Now let's move back a little few months earlier. You have been calling for the drop since 1080 in November 2011.
So the market ran up form 1080 to 1422, then finally corrected to 1266, and you were right? LOL!!! Why could'nt you just go long at 1080 and sell it at 1422 instead???
Yeah, I can see you been trading a long time with monopoly money.
Yes it is important to discuss strategy. I will share a number of thoughts on this.
ReplyDeleteJust a couple points to start with, and will have more thoughts coming later.
Where many go wrong is using too thin margin, and also betting on a move to occur within a time frame that is too short. Yes, the market can stretch farther, and also often takes longer for a move to occur. There can be small range days that burn up time etc... So can be basically right on the move but unless strategy is appropriate may not be able to capitalize anyway.
Important to think these through before trading.
More Cycle charts coming soon....
ReplyDelete