tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post4956241050811518394..comments2024-03-28T11:33:25.049-07:00Comments on Cyclical Market Analysis: UVXY - Mount Everest Cycle Approaching Blue ArrowSChttp://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comBlogger114125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-27771372418059202572013-05-06T06:36:58.715-07:002013-05-06T06:36:58.715-07:00Armstrong is often wrong....I wouldn't be coun...Armstrong is often wrong....I wouldn't be counting your profits just yet.<br /><br />The famous cycles analyst who went long on UVXY at 6.3 was Charles Nenner. He has also been wrong many times before...<br /><br />I tend to agree with a couple of the other comments above, don't expect the mkt to crash...100 points down would be max.<br /><br />Its all about timing but UVXY will probably be a good buy soon for a short term punt. I would be a seller at 8-9 though.<br /><br />Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11933996022410844025noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-86684372638673917062013-05-06T06:31:27.771-07:002013-05-06T06:31:27.771-07:00New analysis is posted.New analysis is posted.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-55430461604424273572013-05-05T20:16:14.997-07:002013-05-05T20:16:14.997-07:00NYGAL, very interesting comments. Seem to align w...NYGAL, very interesting comments. Seem to align with my main alternate roadmap which has a May 6 - 8 high, followed by a May 21 low, then up into early June, and retest early/mid July peak, before being down into the end of July. This will call for major new highs going into 2013. <br /><br />My primary roadmap has a May 14 - 16 high, and then 18% drop into the end of July, before heading higher into November. <br /><br />www.timethetrade.blogspot.caSS76https://www.blogger.com/profile/05254142166449670930noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-66557970113998591472013-05-04T07:11:55.732-07:002013-05-04T07:11:55.732-07:00Thanks for sharing your work and dates. Certainly...Thanks for sharing your work and dates. Certainly interesting dynamics coming up in the markets during the weeks and months ahead. Next week is one of the most important in terms of timing, and will be useful in providing data to determine the timing of events going forward. <br /><br />This market seems to stretch everything right to the maximum extreme possible, and yet it is still following Cycles very nicely. Will take it one step at a time. SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-34250856936227971722013-05-03T19:12:26.627-07:002013-05-03T19:12:26.627-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.pbhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13391731397067676439noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-2324044513267364862013-05-03T17:12:05.784-07:002013-05-03T17:12:05.784-07:00nygaltwh, did you read that from armstrong's b...nygaltwh, did you read that from armstrong's blog or was it to clients? thanksZhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08294961273984548696noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-12608569730362256152013-05-03T15:42:17.272-07:002013-05-03T15:42:17.272-07:00I might add that I have T work on 60 min Ts that ...I might add that I have T work on 60 min Ts that top expire May 8-10; and that my lunar cycle work pulls to a May 9th new moon high which then is followed by a Delta rotation to a midterm low by May 15 which can be potentially most volatile..that could extend to May 22 however we are heading up into early June to retest highs or make new highs by June 6 so I plan to take some profits and reposition the UVXY. We should have maximum volatility on this summer cycle into JULY 22 - August 6..for many reasons..larger cycles and smaller cycles all coming in to dominant downward influence that should be a lollapollooza of a down move..which will probably be bought by the Fed for a huge upswing for the bull market to continued..and then another retest in October so we are heading into a profoundly high volatility laddened market with many opportunities to come.<br />Thanks and hang in there..the guys who are giving you a lot of muck dont know what they are talking about..you are hanging with some of the best heaviweight analysts out there..I dont think we go into immedate bear market though that comes later..we will go up into April 2014 ..but this next 3 months will be a money maker for UVXY...the big ride comes into 2015 -16 it will be the move of a life time on the UVXY...so everyone stay tuned..the guy has it right.<br />NYGALNygaltwhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06487670590942860416noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-43130420025661941202013-05-03T15:36:06.211-07:002013-05-03T15:36:06.211-07:00You are doing great work SC and you are in VERY pr...You are doing great work SC and you are in VERY profound company..Armstrong has some neat volatility models that are coming into play now in May, again October and December. A VERY famous cycle analsyt and very expensive who advised major institutions has made a buy recommendation on the UVXY last week and suggested a hold into cycle top for May 9.<br />NYGALNygaltwhhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06487670590942860416noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-57931872218412478152013-05-03T13:39:30.511-07:002013-05-03T13:39:30.511-07:00SPX charts coming this weekend. SPX charts coming this weekend. SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-88440170395791397852013-05-03T13:29:04.052-07:002013-05-03T13:29:04.052-07:00In my humble opinion, if UVXY traders catch the fe...In my humble opinion, if UVXY traders catch the fear bug...it rises to the 10.06 gap..and that's about all you'll squeeze out of it for summer. To get that 10.06, S&P 1536 would break and then some zig zagging down to lower 1500s. I don't foresee any crash, but I wouldn't be shocked to see 1490 touched in 2013. So that's like a 6.5% down cycle at most for S&P. <br /><br />I mean let's face it, there's not much downside this summer. The money velocity Fed chart is showing all time lows. This could mean that banks and loaners have built a dam and the incoming QE cash is not flowing into mortgage lending at a substantial clip? This halts any real inflation (until the dam is opened). So, that money goes to equities in 2013. In addition, low interest money borrowed by any given corporation would go to stock buybacks? Or cutting debt according to folks like Richard Koo (who believe this time is being used to pay off debt and NOT expand/employ). The skeptics like Koo say "pay off debt, streamline, don't employ, beat earnings forecasts". The problem being..less people employed in order to make more profit. I hate that expression "the new normal" but it's now growing on me.Closestofallhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06120654405756226708noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-40171856758047943442013-05-03T13:00:44.994-07:002013-05-03T13:00:44.994-07:00Will it be as staggering as the the UVXY drop from...Will it be as staggering as the the UVXY drop from 17 to 3 of last year?Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01917257731586027654noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-41785130168656721402013-05-03T12:51:33.229-07:002013-05-03T12:51:33.229-07:00The profits on these trades will be staggering.The profits on these trades will be staggering.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-30836123089770501932013-05-03T12:49:51.141-07:002013-05-03T12:49:51.141-07:00Nikkei is up 65% from November. It has momentum, ...Nikkei is up 65% from November. It has momentum, but no index should ever move that much so fast. Very dangerous, unstable.... SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-66023058337915571872013-05-03T12:46:04.547-07:002013-05-03T12:46:04.547-07:00Oh no, but SC made a brilliant call in November, r...Oh no, but SC made a brilliant call in November, remember? He forgot to discuss about his position in UVXY in July to September from 17 to 3 before the reverse split. Another brilliant call.<br /><br />You gotta love the dude. He's always right. Just look at the only trades he posted in the trades section. LOL!!!Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01917257731586027654noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-29499540397988707082013-05-03T12:44:50.911-07:002013-05-03T12:44:50.911-07:00I think VIX should see the 11 to 12 range again so...I think VIX should see the 11 to 12 range again soon but probably not a lower low from mid-March 11.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-41848914324604976902013-05-03T12:43:18.697-07:002013-05-03T12:43:18.697-07:00Yes, core short positions are in place on the SPX ...Yes, core short positions are in place on the SPX bounce from 666 low March 2009. Also, UVXY on the dip from $2,448. <br /><br />Looking to get aggressive with short positions soon. I've been waiting for the blue arrow bottom, VIX in the 11 to 12 range etc... to get aggressive for the crash.SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-51774000713776622742013-05-03T12:40:24.683-07:002013-05-03T12:40:24.683-07:00Any lower targets for VIX here ? Are you expectin...Any lower targets for VIX here ? Are you expecting to break to new lows?Philhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11004676359273995104noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-54911014190593415562013-05-03T12:38:00.171-07:002013-05-03T12:38:00.171-07:00What do you mean, aren't you already short?
S...What do you mean, aren't you already short?<br /><br />SCJanuary 13, 2013 at 10:08 AM<br /><br />January 10, 2013<br /><br /><br />Bought 50% UVXY at $14.41.<br /><br /><br />January 11, 2013<br /><br /><br />Shorted SPX at 1472.<br /><br />Bought another 50% UVXY at $14.52. Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09959780826095436704noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-42530683846554454902013-05-03T12:28:50.635-07:002013-05-03T12:28:50.635-07:00I'm still waiting to build up shorts positions...I'm still waiting to build up shorts positions. These large Cycles are lining up nicely. SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-36123014113036105112013-05-03T12:22:33.420-07:002013-05-03T12:22:33.420-07:00Short SPX @1472 and long UVXY at 14.50 those are ...Short SPX @1472 and long UVXY at 14.50 those are only numbers that really matter... four months of watching and hopingmickhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13800576410993483401noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-79936408803669566902013-05-03T11:46:57.710-07:002013-05-03T11:46:57.710-07:00If we hit 1640-70 that would put UVXY in the $5 ra...If we hit 1640-70 that would put UVXY in the $5 range which would be likely setting up for a reverse split againAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-53808853710901693872013-05-03T11:05:17.027-07:002013-05-03T11:05:17.027-07:00Great call in November. What about the call in Ju...Great call in November. What about the call in July when you held UVXY from 17 down to 3 presplit?<br /><br />Be honest with yourself so you can move on and acheive greater prosperity. Just don't forget to put stops.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01917257731586027654noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-66306617449406988462013-05-03T09:39:05.820-07:002013-05-03T09:39:05.820-07:00My models caught the first half of this rally from...My models caught the first half of this rally from 1343 and had target at 1490 SPX for January. The model predicts this is a topping process, and more importantly a major top and deep drop.<br /><br />Therefore, I am only interested in building shorts. I've been waiting for VIX in the 11 to 12 range. SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-67455013691905713552013-05-03T09:23:07.205-07:002013-05-03T09:23:07.205-07:00You are so funny. You posted the target price aft...You are so funny. You posted the target price after the 50% jump on July 15. Don't worry SC, we have seen your record, so you have nothing to prove. LOL!!!<br /><br />Btw, we are on record that you have been BEARISH since January, right? That's why you are still short, right? LOL!!!Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01917257731586027654noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8765832528826242391.post-43368581469578488772013-05-03T09:07:34.420-07:002013-05-03T09:07:34.420-07:00The bears made nice profits in July 2012 when UVXY...The bears made nice profits in July 2012 when UVXY bounced 50%. SChttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09474760275693948933noreply@blogger.com