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Wednesday, April 10, 2013

UVXY - Mount Everest Cycle Wedge

UVXY facinatingly fell below the wedge line as predicted by the Mount Everest Cycle.  In the Cycle, price fell below the wedge to reach the blue arrow bottom.

Short term downside for UVXY is still probable though it can bounce around as it declines to form the blue arrow bottom.

Daily Chart















Look closely at the white wedge lines drawn on the Mount Everest Cycle below.  Price fell below the white wedge line prior to the blue arrow.

 
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46 comments:

  1. SCApril 10, 2013 at 2:53 PM

    Amazing how accurate the Cycle is for large scale movements in UVXY!

    ReplyDelete
  2. PayDayApril 10, 2013 at 3:49 PM

    If i am looking at the chart correctly, the drop out of the wedge doesnt look very deep or last very long. Certainly not another 3 mo of downside or anything like that.

    It also looks like the bottom arrow GAPS UP out of the wedge formation to start the up trend...is that the clue we'd be looking for to say blue bottom in for uvxy? (Perhaps gap p open at 8$ and straight to $17?)

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCApril 10, 2013 at 3:58 PM

      Remember the Cycle is large scale. It has taken 3 months to get to the point where we are now. Earlier this year I certainly did not think this Cycle would be so slow in playing out, but it is what it is...

      3 months from the red arrow to dropping below this wedge.

      This can take weeks longer... UVXY still can see a fair amount of downside in %, and we'll probably bounce around and burn up time as it declines.

      I think people will become very complacent by the time this rally finally ends for SPX and UVXY reaches that blue arrow.

      Delete
    2. SCApril 10, 2013 at 4:00 PM

      "It also looks like the bottom arrow GAPS UP out of the wedge formation to start the up trend...is that the clue we'd be looking for to say blue bottom in for uvxy? (Perhaps gap p open at 8$ and straight to $17?)"

      That would be confirmation though will try to estimate the price of the blue arrow as it approaches closer...

      I know the price behaviour is small and hard to see on the large Cycle. Will have short term charts coming to better define the smaller scale movements.

      Delete
    3. pbApril 11, 2013 at 8:45 AM

      At this rate it will take several years for your cycle to play out.

      Delete
    4. SCApril 11, 2013 at 8:49 AM

      It will take time without question as it is a large scale Cycle. Notice though that the move for UVXY from the white to the red arrow happened fast. So it seems that UVXY comes down slowly compared to the Cycle, but goes up faster.

      The timing is going to be interesting to see once the blue arrow is in place...

      Delete
  3. PhilApril 10, 2013 at 7:52 PM

    We are getting closer to my 1600 target, a small pullback here would be a healthy sign for the mkt & then off to new highs next week...

    I agree SC, next week is the time to buy UVXY around 6 hopefully.

    ReplyDelete
  4. stanley j g crouchApril 11, 2013 at 4:03 AM

    When "IT" happens, you'll know it. It is worth buying way OTM for pennies and letting them 'roll-off' until they reward in the parabolic...i m H o...

    ReplyDelete
  5. AnonymousApril 11, 2013 at 6:50 AM

    AAII and Ticker Sense just rolled over to +50% bearish. Just a matter of time, up till May - then away. https://sites.google.com/site/bestofthestockmarket/

    ReplyDelete
  6. PhilApril 11, 2013 at 8:12 AM

    Well 1600 is basically here....I'm buying UVXY now.

    Still think the mkt has more upside but a small pullback would be welcome.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCApril 11, 2013 at 8:19 AM

      VIX flirting with the gap at 12. A dip for SPX quite possible soon (during Fri or Mon). There are some negative short term Cycles in there for SPX.

      Delete
  7. mickApril 11, 2013 at 8:34 AM

    wait until next week , wait next week I mean the next week looks weak ... and then wait again

    ReplyDelete
  8. SCApril 11, 2013 at 8:43 AM

    Bottom line is that VIX testing the gap area at 12 today and therefore a pop for VIX would not be surprising. However, 11's for VIX may be seen before a major turn in the market.

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  9. UnknownApril 11, 2013 at 3:26 PM

    Yes, and that's why SC owns UVXY at 14.5 and still short. The turn will happen sooner or later. LOL!!!

    ReplyDelete
  10. UnknownApril 11, 2013 at 4:24 PM

    Its like your starting to become delusional, but if you throw enough darts eventually you might hit bulls-eye.

    ReplyDelete
  11. SCApril 11, 2013 at 5:49 PM

    I'm very pleased with the progress of this Cycle.

    ReplyDelete
  12. PhilApril 11, 2013 at 6:05 PM

    I'm pleased I'm long of the decaying beast at 6.35....

    No delusions here, my stop is 5.8 & TP is 7-7.3

    ReplyDelete
  13. joedApril 11, 2013 at 6:44 PM

    DOW ,,,,,,,,,,,,HEADS UP

    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  14. PhilApril 12, 2013 at 5:51 AM

    Sold my UVXY this morning for a 40c profit from yesterday....

    I think the mkt goes back up again now.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCApril 12, 2013 at 9:36 AM

      Agreed. VIX doing little today, and probably heading into the 11's as per the plan.

      Another issue for the bears is that Apple could be setting up to bounce later this month. NDX was soft earlier this year, but over the last week has finally warmed up...

      Delete
    2. StockboomApril 12, 2013 at 9:39 AM

      SC, VIX cash or future?

      Thanks

      Delete
    3. SCApril 12, 2013 at 9:42 AM

      VIX cash.

      Delete
    4. SCApril 12, 2013 at 9:43 AM

      The bears time is slowly setting up though, and it's going to be a beauty of a setup.

      Delete
  15. StockboomApril 12, 2013 at 9:46 AM

    where can i see VIX cash price?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCApril 12, 2013 at 9:49 AM

      Type in $VIX for the Symbol:

      http://stockcharts.com/

      Delete
  16. PayDayApril 12, 2013 at 11:30 AM

    SC having my doubts as to the Everest Cycle corresponding to UVXY. Is the cycle predicted the Red arrow drop and wedge drop, why didnt UVXY make a HIGHER high as per the Everest chart? If they truly correlate then allparts should correspond and not just some.

    I guess the test will be after the blue bottom..if uvxy fails to reach the gap then the chart no longer applies.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCApril 12, 2013 at 11:40 AM

      The purpose of the Cycle is only to correlate major movements and behaviour. That is the limitation of a large Cycle. To define smaller scale movement then it is necessary to use the short term charts.

      The blue arrow is lower than the white - which is fine. As long as the behaviour corresponds, and we know at this point it does since all the moves are there, and just fell below the wedge.

      Yes, it will be more interesting after the blue arrow.

      Delete
    2. PayDayApril 12, 2013 at 11:59 AM

      Which short term charts? The ones with the forks?

      Thanks for clarification.

      PS...you dont have any charts for XIV by chance?

      Delete
    3. SCApril 12, 2013 at 12:11 PM

      Yes, and I have short term charts coming.

      Last May/June I had many charts on XIV since I felt it was bottoming out, but now in these Cycles it is getting expensive so have not been posting XIV charts. I'll take a look though maybe something interesting to show....

      Delete
  17. StockboomApril 12, 2013 at 11:56 AM

    looks like market will close green today...

    ReplyDelete
  18. StockboomApril 12, 2013 at 12:52 PM

    can anyone please explain the rational behind market recovery today when Oil and Gold both got hammered?

    ReplyDelete
  19. ClosestofallApril 12, 2013 at 1:03 PM

    Personally, I think $9 is the most upside UVXY will achieve upon any S&P correction. Vix and April futures were both in 12s today.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. PhilApril 12, 2013 at 7:15 PM

      Well if UVXY fall to $5 in the near term then $9 would be a great level on a correction in the S&P!

      Delete
  20. bulletheadApril 12, 2013 at 2:23 PM

    ES did gap down and it hasn't been closed. Maybe it'll stick since no one seems too concerned about it. We have major obvious trendline touch (check),completed measured move (check), $RUT/$SPX ratio that looks destined to move lower - seems like as good of place as any to take a walk on the short side

    ReplyDelete
  21. PayDayApril 15, 2013 at 8:13 AM

    Mount Everest Cycle does not correspond to UVXY. But rather DUST.... Both same price on Jan $28......now uvxy is $6 and DUST is $100

    ReplyDelete
  22. StockboomApril 15, 2013 at 9:38 AM

    What is dust? Thx

    ReplyDelete
  23. PayDayApril 15, 2013 at 10:07 AM

    DUST is 3x bear gold etf.

    Uvxy up 10% when vix up 22%. Will take consecutive up days in vix to get uvxy to close steep contango gap.

    ReplyDelete
  24. SCApril 15, 2013 at 10:59 AM

    Yes consecutive up days for VIX would. Also 18 for VIX is an important level to watch.

    ReplyDelete
  25. joedApril 15, 2013 at 12:08 PM

    GET SUMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM!!!!


    http://traderjoed.blogspot.com/

    ReplyDelete
  26. PayDayApril 16, 2013 at 5:16 AM

    UVXY officially broken. It only tracks 2x Vix futures down. Up days is 0.5x.
    Yesterdays pathetic move in UVXY is perfect example of this. VIX up 43% and UvXY should have been at least in $9 minimum if tacking on par. But no....couldnt even muster that...we got 0.5 par.

    Now any modest vix correction, back down for uvxy into 5$.

    Buying all XIV dips...any dip to $20 is a gift

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. SCApril 16, 2013 at 5:43 AM

      We don't have a bottom confirmed yet for UVXY but careful. I remember TVIX acting this way in July 2011. It was so sluggish starting, huge lag. The reason was it was simply complacency that was holding it back, then boom.

      Delete
  27. SCApril 16, 2013 at 5:38 AM

    New chart is up.

    ReplyDelete

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