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Sunday, November 4, 2012

$SPX - Surprise November Rally

There may be soft spots early next week still.  However, the gradual decline phase for SPX should transition into a strong short term rally phase soon.  

Positive short term cycles for November suggest that a surge up soon could be surprisingly strong.

While this short term outlook may seem positive, remember overall, in the bigger picture, the process is anticipated to be a broadening top formation that defines a major top.        

60min Chart
 

UVXY thoroughly tested resistance, but it did hold, and the fact that UVXY plunged last week is compelling evidence that SPX is setting up for a sharp rally on a short term basis. 

Notice that the turquoise and orange fork geometry match up exactly for UVXY.  There is interesting symmetry in place.  The symmetry should provide helpful insight into the next short term moves.

A comparison is being made between the white circles, and the symmetry suggests there is some downside coming for UVXY to #2.

60min Chart


53 comments:

  1. HI SC
    an important Low looks possible for the 9th
    after which could start that year end rebound, but thanksgiving week has some bumps also. Cant tell yet if the 23rd makes a higher low or lower low than the 9th. This week does show some volatile swings, but still trending lower into the 9th.
    Jay

    ReplyDelete
  2. Hi,
    I don't see a new #2...is it at 25.60 by today/Monday?

    Is there still a big SPX drop and UVXY multi-bagger coming on your anticipated bigger move?

    tks in advance.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I haven't marked #2 yet, but I think it could be just above the pink fork support.

      Yes, in the bigger picture my view is that SPX is in a topping process, and UVXY is in a bottoming process to define a major bottom.

      Thank you Testy.

      Delete
  3. SC,

    Updated your calls.

    http://i1266.photobucket.com/albums/jj536/charts101/scsSPXpDyr2mn0dy0ip32370625066a2808_zps0c5f984d.png

    Is your very serious warning from late oct still in effect? Going long into nov seems to be a bad idea per your earlier statement.

    Thank you.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Have to be careful on the long side since it is late in the topping process in terms of the bigger picture for SPX.

    ReplyDelete
  5. ok, thanks.

    Just to put a number on your calls SC, you seem to be getting correct calls around 30% of the time (from the chart above). For the other 70% one needs immaculate money management discipline to keep head above water.

    Good luck!

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Wow, that chart is telling. Thanks for the effort in putting that together.

      Delete
    2. This is not to put SC down, he knows the drill and how things work, but rather for those who are new to trading (and who should not be trading) and might foolishly consider following someone who sounds very confident.

      SC with more than a decade of trading experience still gets more than half of his calls wrong but what saves him (at least it sounds like, SC's trading record was never disclosed) is his stellar money management. You cut your losses early when you are wrong and you recognize the winners and let them run.

      There are plenty of guys with similar performance but they are still making money because of the excellent money management.

      SC, care to comment on this?

      Delete
    3. First of all, I don't think that is a full or accurate accounting of my calls. In fact most of my comments are not on the chart. You have only picked and choosed a few comments.

      Having said that, no I don't get everything right. This year my strategy I have recognized from my large cycles that the market is pricey. I do expect large declines from these levels. That is why my analysis is skewed bearish this year.

      That hasn't really been the most efficient strategy for trading 2012 since most of the year has been a sideways trading market.

      However, importantly my strategy is designed to make money when the market declines, and I expect to do well in months ahead. In fact, it is starting to bear fruit.

      Most of the year I have been waiting for a big move, and I still see that being the case. That is where I expect to do very well. So it has been a waiting game.

      Will my strategy with large cycles work? Wait and see...

      Delete
    4. SC, it is fair, i did not include every word you said. The chart demonstrates just what i thought were the biggest moves you were forecasting over last a year and a half. I did not include day to day noise.

      My point is that there is really no accountability and this is rather a warning directed to newbies and those who decide to follow SC (or anyone for that matter).

      Delete
  6. SC November 2, 2012 7:03 AM


    "I think it likely drops early next week to retest the bottom 1410 area."

    ReplyDelete
  7. SC

    Do u think uvxy will make new low?

    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
  8. Yes, I think so. My symmetry chart looks likely to play out, and #2 should be a lower low. I think it can dip to just above the pink line.

    ReplyDelete
  9. UVXY hit the green midfork exactly at $30.60 and fell yesterday. Now it hit the same green lower fork at $26.40 and bounced.

    This could be a choppy spot short term but I think we'll see the lower low over the next week.

    ReplyDelete
  10. SPX rallied off the 1410 mentioned. This could be choppy soon, but I think it'll continue to rally after some gyrations.

    ReplyDelete
  11. Hi SC,

    U think the rally u mentioned is over ?

    Thanks,
    Alex

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, I think the market is setting up to rally.

      Delete
  12. UVXY still near its 52wk lows...and SP 500 has dropped big time Twice already.....

    You need to end this guessing game your playing...

    ReplyDelete
  13. I asked him if he still owns UVXY at 52. He kept deleting my posts.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. well if he doesnt like what you say or it's questioning his comments then he Deletes...

      can;'face the music...

      Delete
  14. I'm in cash currently as already posted previously.

    SCNovember 2, 2012 11:14 AM
    Probably just sit in cash for weekend.

    ReplyDelete
  15. So you took a huge loss on you uvxy?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. No, I sold back in Sept. I only have 2 loss out last dozen winning trades.

      Delete
  16. sure..

    Let me guess your still working on showing us your wins and losses...

    didn't someone request that months ago...

    ReplyDelete
  17. All are posted on the site already in real time!

    ReplyDelete
  18. Exactly, and your calls are real time. So how did you escaped the UVXY trade? As i recalled you were averaging down, sold half on the rebound. so what happen to the other half?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I sold the other half. Remember I have done many trades since then. All posted.

      Delete
  19. Guys,

    Give SC a break, why bother about what he is doing? If you like stay or don't waste your time visiting this site...or take whatever you think is right...

    Common instead of investing time in discussing winning trades, you are wasting your and others time in basing SC!

    Cheers...

    ReplyDelete
  20. I agree , the negativity must be avoided.
    SC, whats your take on how long it will take the market to recover todays loss in SPX ?

    ReplyDelete
  21. Usually when the market has a big down day it takes a day or two to solidify. I don't think there is any rush yet so haven't gone long yet, and waiting for a few signals to line up first.

    ReplyDelete
  22. I agree, these attacks are lame and distract from the effort of trading. If you don't like this site, don't visit it.

    ReplyDelete
  23. I'll probably go long XIV later today or tomorrow. I do think the market will likely take a few days to absorb, and solidify here so likely quiet for a few days. Next week I expect the positive cycle to hit, and it should be powerful.

    Within a week or so it would not surprise me to see a 50 point plus up day on SPX.

    ReplyDelete
  24. Thanks SC for the insight. Do you foresee any downside risk ? like a further low to 1370-1375ish region in SPX ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. It already looks quite stretched on the downside. Very little is possible still I would say.

      Delete
  25. Went long SPX with UPRO at $79.25 in aftermarket.

    ReplyDelete
  26. This 1377-80 SPX is quite important.

    SCOctober 25, 2012 1:09 PM

    "I still think bounce first but I also agree a lower low in Nov. 1380 SPX is support imo."

    ReplyDelete
  27. Thanks SC. Whats your upside targer on SPX for next week ?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I still think we can see a pretty serious rally short term. It does need to firm up down here first. I'm going to review the levels some more.

      Delete
  28. Reasons that I bought S&P today are that first of all I have very positive short term cycles due in Nov. The VIX was down all day along with SPX. A great clue. XIV held solid all day with no lowers lows today.


    1377 is important support:

    The orange line from Oct 29th analysis shows the support at 1377:

    http://cyclicalmarketanalysis.blogspot.ca/2012/10/spx-short-term-update.html

    ReplyDelete
  29. Hi Sc,

    I would like to have your views on gold and silver recent developments. More precisely, do you think the consolidation phase around €32 comes to an end ?
    Thanks

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Yes, remember I said previously $32 was important support for Silver. It has consolidated here, and I do think it will rise from this support level.

      Delete
  30. so much for 1377 support...now dont delete my post again...

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. The rally is there, but the declines are a lot stronger. Or, SC will spin it that the surprise rally is a lot weaker than expected. But he's still profitable (somehow).

      Delete
  31. I said in the analysis that it could be soft first this week, and I just went long S&P yesterday at the low of the day.

    Yes, I still think a November rally is coming, and it's going to be powerful.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I have a plan for SPX and UVXY and will have charts coming on the weekend.

      Delete
  32. I don't expect much rally today, but early next week can see 1400 tested in an initial pop imo.

    ReplyDelete
  33. I'm long SPX at 1378. I don't take long positions lightly as previously stated due to my larger cycles, but this is a low risk entry in my work. Just a trade.

    ReplyDelete
  34. My plan is to take profit on this trade around 1405 SPX give or take. I think dip after that and a bigger surprise coming on the upside.

    ReplyDelete
  35. Nice Call on long SP trade... I was long myself closed at 1380

    Nice article on SPY bottoming by CNBC

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/49760677

    ReplyDelete
  36. Hi SC, are u planning to keep your long position to monday, in case you dont hit your target today ?

    ReplyDelete
  37. Yes, I'm holding for higher levels next week.

    ReplyDelete
  38. HI SC
    as promised on Monday, the LOW came in Nov 9th -Friday.

    EVEN tho there is some WEAK upside potential next week, that should only provide another shorting opp.

    A MORE important pivot low should occur before the end of the month, giving a BUY opp for December.
    Best wishes
    Jaywiz

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Nicely timed Jay. I'll have charts and analysis tomorrow. Similar idea.

      Delete