Finding the edge in analyzing unique market Cycles.
when in doubt, stick another fork in it !(thanks for the charts though)
well, with the FOMC meeting this Thursday, I suspect the VIX futures will build leading up to Wednesdays German Court ruling, but you better be out of your UVXY/HVU positions by Tuesday close of trading....
I think No QE3, and your GAP gets filled
SC, are you still holding 100% of your UVXY position. Can you please update as you exit your position. thanks
Yes, holding and plan to sell all at the gap area. Then will look to reload after it settles. I notice NDX was down Fri and down today again. Crude did not even surpass it's Aug high.
is it possible you have confused the words negative and positive ?
QE3 is coming, so says Goldman, an you bet they are the ones pulling the strings.http://www.zerohedge.com/news/goldman-fed-perception-over-substance?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29
Do the opposite of what Goldman says...ALWAYS!
usually I would agree with that.
SC, i can't really see the FED doing any QE this Thruday...there is just no way with everything inflated so much already...do you think it might be best to hold thru this meeting of Thursday or will you just simply sell at the gap? thanks
I simply plan to sell at the gap area. The reason is that I expect it to retrace from that level afterwards. I will re-enter on a retrace.
SC, do you have a time range that your think this will be achieved? thanks
what if it trades down to 30 ? are holding forever with no exit strategy ?
I think it can test that level this week.
That's almost a 15% drop....So why would you not sell if you think it's heading to 30 and re purchase ??
No, I am expecting it to test the gap level much higher this week. I am holding for that level.
So you think it can test 30 this week ??? and You are holding for GAP level this week ???Which one are you holding for ? Your saying two different things here...
"I think it can test that level this week." The level that I was referring to here was the gap level above. I do not believe there is downside here for UVXY. So I am holding for a bounce up to the gap level.
QE3 has already started.http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9516957/Federal-Reserve-has-already-started-QE3-says-investor-Jim-Rogers.html
SC, you might want to check in with the guys at change in trend at times to get additional input on cycles...kind of like a check i guess...
your looking for 30% (thirty percent) move in next few days on UVXY... WOW
Mick, if no new QE, then its certainly possible, also have event risk with the German Court on ESM. So this week is quite plausible for a sizable bounce, but I think its not going to happen.
SC, what is your long term target for UVXY ?When do you think it will be reached ?Thanks
My longer term view is the same. Those charts are coming soon with the target and timing.
so is your long term target $280.00 ?? and how long is that gonna take
I'm going to discuss the longer term outlook soon because it is best to include the reasoning and explanation at that time.
imo, the only scenario that would allow uvxy to reach $280 is if israel attacks iran in the month of October...otherwise October will just bring a small correction with upside target for UVXY to be very minimal...
SC, are you still expecting a gradual rise stage?
Yes, the next chart will show the different phases.
Whatever good price you can sell at this week, be sure next week by Friday it is found between 28.40 and 29. That will be the bottom before whatever- gradual or not rise to 55.
SC, what is your downside target for the SPX this week and when do you think we will reach it 11/12/13? Thanks
They are already printing. There will be no collapse this year!
SC, is this do you see this entire week as being negative or is the later half positive. thanks
Hi SC,do you believe the gap level will be reached this week regardless of the German Court and Fed announcements this week? or should we sell before the announcements and buy back in after their announcements. tks in advance...
The most negative days this week were yesterday and today. There are negative spots throughout the week, but a short term low could be put in as soon as today for SPX. As for UVXY, keep in mind that even though it bounced well yesterday, it is still possible that it could retest yesterday's low or even lower. However, if that occurs I am still expecting it to test the gap level above afterwards.
SC, will you hold your position after today if it doesnt hit the gap fill area?
It probably won't reach the gap area today, and if it stalls out sround $40 I may trim somewhat. However, I still think the gap area will be reached soon, even if it stalls and dips first.
SC,I don't know what you basing your analysis and predictions, without considering any political events around you...do you know what two major political events we have this week? and what are their importance in market direction? even if you know please list them here for members and provide your insight.Thanks
Stockboom, the market has already decided what to do next.
so today is negative, it looks positive ????
Yes I am aware of the Fed meeting and Germans courts this week. I don't generally discuss political events.
Then when you make statment that you will sell today if it hits $ 40...you are sure that meetings will come in favour of market? or you think that no matter what happens VIX will behave in your guided path!What I am saying is there has to be logic in making statement.
SC, your cycles analysis need some serious tuning...
One can speculate its rumors of QEIII that has been driving the markets up.One can also turn around and say that QEIII has begun already. We see liquidity pushing markets and risk assets up already. ..but .. but What you say? Its unfair. Ben did not tell us. Get used to it. There are a lot of things they dont tell us.QEIII is already here, they came up with a way to funnel money in under the table. There is a loop that they are using and it is technically legal. This office will get re-elected. Sheep are happy and wolves are fed. Bam!
SC,Regarding your work. What would explain your big timing cycle being off is this liquidity injection we are experiencing. Your analysis is pushed out further and further in time because of this. Yes perhaps its time to crash and deal with consequences, but they dont want to and at this moment they can literally buy more time. This is why we may see this going for months and months. Cycles get distorted and this is your one big distortion right here!
Now i firmly believe that QE has never ended! lolGoing up on low volume and with less and less investor participating in the rally. Whats been driving this up? Printing press it has never stopped.
so when you say negative it means market will go higher?
SC, can you please let us know when and amount of UVXY you are exiting? Thanks
These people here are so PATHETIC!! Leave SC alone... Due your own DILIGENCE and go by the chart!!
Sold half my position at $39.30.
Yesterday and today were quite negative but it is a tougher read next few days. So I'll just sit in a more flexible position. If it stalls and dips I'll add. I don't think I'll miss anything major just yet anyways.
I still think that gap level will be tested soon even if it dips first.
UUP look like its found strong support here and is due for a bounce which imo will send markets lower over the next couple of days...
Enters backwardation this week and through option expiry (VIX) and goes to 54 area by 9/26. Up to 62% rise from 33.69
Look what I am sayinghttp://www.investorplace.com/2012/09/daily-stock-market-news-vix-may-be-signaling-profit-taking-ahead/
So much for SC holding for the GAP higher...SC When are you going to post your trade entries and results ?
Hi Tushar,Tks for providing your forecast. 1. Do you expect UVXY to drop to a particular level by X date before the rise to 54 by 9/26?2. Can you point us to your historical forecasts so we can view your track record so we can make an informed decision?Tks in advance.
I still think that gap level is likely to be tested even if it dips first.I will be posting a summary of these trades for 2012. When all is said and done, I am looking forward to good results overall.
thanks SCgood call selling half position yesterday. I took your advise & sold 1/2 as well
how is losing 30% on a trade a good call ?
SC,1. At what price will you get back into UVXY with the 50% you sold recently.2. When do your cycles believe the gap will be filled? Thanks in advance.
On a short term basis I'm in a flexible position. I will add if it dips but I'll have to see the pricing in real time. Even if it dips first, that gap is likely to be tested within a week imo.
One interesting fact for the last few days is that UVXY is trading 2-3 times normal daily volume. Partly some volume could be due to the split, and some to speculators positioning for this week's political events. Nevertheless UVXY has abnormally large volume while XIV is just normal.I think it is a sign of approaching a major bottom.
XIV did have big volume at it's bottom in May.
Guys,Let's not make personal attacks. SC is trying to share his knowledge with us.Whether we believe the info is helpful or not, trade or do not trade accordingly.If we have additional data points to add, then let's share them and discuss so we can all win at this game.My current opinion is the cycles are too inconsistent to make a good trading decision on it's own but it is a datapoint for consideration that can be used with other data points to make better trades.Bottom line...don't trade based on these cycles alone, just use it as 1 of your data points (if at all) and always have stops. SC, I think if you added stop suggestions to your trades, it might be helpful for all.Good luck tomorrow everyone.
I think one big lesson everybody could learn from this mess is that cycles, indicators or tea leaves - any signal - is only small part of the trade. Trade management is whats important. Appropriate risk and position size are MORE IMPORTANT THAN SIGNAL. Even the best of the best consistently profitable traders only get 30-40% of all trades correct. So out of 10 trades only 3-4 trades max go as planned and produce profits - the rest are bad calls. And thats the best traders out there. Now you can imagine what success rate for average trader is.Any person who is confident that every call is going to be correct is delusional.When call is made - time frame, targets and bad call criteria need to be specified otherwise its just turns into lottery game, all or nothing. Odds are against you.
It's quiet out there in the blogger world. It seems everyone is tense about tomorrows FOMC announcement.I can hear the crickets.... lol
tense are those that have no plan. weak hands. the rest are calm or out.
Hi Guys, I enjoy reading SC's blog, why he publishes I have no idea. He is continually confronted by victims whom it seems have little to no trading prowess instead grab the coat tails of someone they deem to have knowledge. All is great until things do not go as planned. The vicitm is leech like, does not have the knowledge or ability to make trading decisions. If things go badly their input becomes more and more hysterical to the point of character assassination. They release their own impotence by ridiculing others. Its sad really, you all know who they are.SC on the other hand puts his thoughts and knowledge on the line, rather than following him like a flock of sheep then criticising when your expectations are not met why not provide your trading thoughts, do you have any? If you don't best go do some study as there are not many successful traders who blindly follow others.The old saying "the harder I work the luckier I get.....Be positive, made your own decisions and work hard.
Most likely we will be up tomorrow and into next week to the 1465 level at which point i will be shorting with both hands...muahahahaha
any upside will be limited to 1450 then 1465.....no QE3 and I think lowest it goes today is 1415